The Petey Predicament

[Cornuck]

How about if we discuss EP40 here, instead of every thread?

Do we trade his ass?
Do we hang on and see what happens?
Is there nothing to be concerned about?
Injury or Mental state holding him back?

[UWSaint]

I don't think keeping him around necessarily means "and see what happens" or that "having concern" means therefore move him out.

I've posted this before, but I'll plant it at the start of this thread.

Every team needs a core that you build your team around. A good enough core allows a decent front office to get them a supporting cast that can be cup competitive.

Heading into the season, if you asked me what the Canucks core is, I'd have said Hughes, Demko, Miller, and Pettersson -- and that the key complementary players were Hronek and Boeser. (I've sometimes referred to this as inner and outer core). What separates guys like Boeser and Hronek from the rest is that you wouldn't try to build your team around those guys. Really good players, but not "Brock Boeser is your star, get out the red carpet."

Its hard to say with confidence that this core is good enough to think you can build a true Stanley Cup competitor around. It isn't a clear case either way -- last season they really were in the conversation as a division winner with scoring, pretty strong defense, and very strong goaltending. But they've also been historic underperformers with some kind of intangible frailty that seemed to keep them from performing to their level.

And yet, there seems to be fewer teams with a present because-we-have-this-core-we-are-legitimate contenders that teams without; and there are a handful of teams with a young group that might evolve into that (and then there are teams who are miles away -- like the Flames; even if they get 90 points this year, they are miles away). And the Canucks haven't seen a group of this capacity since AV left. And most teams who go through a rebuild fail to get a core that's this good in 4-5 years after blowing up a core. Some do, to be sure. Most don't. For the Canucks, this really is their second wave since AV.

So the thing is, its hard to get these cores. We might have that in Vancouver, but really the Canucks need EP40 and Miller to play like special and dangerous players for that to work -- neither have been this season. To me, the question of sticking with EP40 is the same as "will the Canucks improve their core if they move him?" Because there is a window, the window is now, and if EP40's moved for support staff, the starring cast simply won't be good enough. Is it more realistic to find that player elsewhere or for EP40 to play better, more dangerously more consistently? I'd say the latter, and while I am not convinced it is going to happen (I think he'll be a ppg player, but he's got to make teams worry about him, and that's lagging the recent increase in point production), I am pretty convinced that it is more likely to happen than that the Canucks will be able to improve that core by trading him. For this window to have a chance, he almost certainly stays.

Look, I get why EP40 is on everyone's radar. But let's be clear. Miller, who I love, has not been a special player this season and just missed 10 games. Demko, who I think is really special, has been injured most of the year and isn't yet himself, and if history is a guide, it takes him a little time. The results in that context are okay -- they are good enough for the Canucks to put it all together as the season goes on and give this season a run with this perhaps-good-enough core. But it is not a great team where the top 2 centers are often underperforming (or absent) and where the Vezina finalist caliber goalie hasn't played and when Complement 2 -- the only defender other than Hughes who is a clearly above average NHL player -- is out. Who would think it is a good team?

So I think the Canucks should ride it out. That doesn't mean doing nothing with EP40 (or Miller). It isn't just hoping for the best. This is Tochett's challenge -- to get the most out of these star players while holding on to the rest of the team. On the outside, we aren't in the best position to know what buttons to push. And the buttons we see pushed are never the full story. And what buttons to push doesn't come printed in a manual. And different people can push the same buttons and get different results.

But I get the sense Tockey is sophisticated enough to know all of this, and that he's agile enough to try alter his approaches based on the feedback he's getting from his efforts.

[Raile]

UW's post

thanks for this, this is largely what I was trying to say in other threads, but much more eloquent then what I could muster.

[Cornuck]

Good post ^

Yes, last year was fantastic (likely an anomaly) but still fantastic. This year, we have a typical "Canuck luck" year going on. 1C out with 'issues', 2D out, 1G just back - 2C 'struggling' (somewhat, depending on the definition). This team doesn't have the flow it had last year, and in spite of these issues, we're still kinda hanging in there.

As far as EP40 goes, I'm thinking he looks kinda lost out there. Maybe it's the coaching, maybe it's his mindset, maybe it's his linemates. Or a combination. Miller's had Boeser on his wing for a couple of years now. Who has been Petey's most consistent winger?

He's trying to play a little more physical this year, for what it's worth. But as for the 'magic' we've seen in the past, it's not showing up very often. Maybe we've been so spoiled by Hughes, that anyone else doesn't seem to be trying?

I think back to a few years ago, and the plays where Pettersson lost the puck, then worked his ass off to get it back. That was the effort I loved to see, and honestly haven't seen it for the past 2 seasons. Maybe it's coaches telling him to play his spots, maybe it's pacing, who knows?

He's still pretty much a PPG player right now. His faceoff % is right on his career average, his +/- (for what it's worth) is way down, I'm glad I'm not writing the cheques, but the optimist in me says to wait it out, he'll be pulling his weight soon enough.

[Topper]

Pettersson is to the Canucks what Heberdeau was to Panthers

[UWSaint]

As far as EP40 goes, I'm thinking he looks kinda lost out there. Maybe it's the coaching, maybe it's his mindset, maybe it's his linemates. Or a combination. Miller's had Boeser on his wing for a couple of years now. Who has been Petey's most consistent winger?

Four things are different in his game than when he plays well.

First, moving. When EP40 struggles the most, he is static. His play went from poor to good this season by changing this alone.

Two, creativity with the puck. When EP40 came into the league, he'd often dangle, get creative with the puck. It didn't work much, but he drew a ton of penalties doing this and more importantly, defensemen were on their heels. They aren't anymore.

Three, shoot the puck. EP40 came into the league a bit too hesitant to unload the puck. He fixed that in his see-I-knew-he-had-another-level campaign two years ago. Scored 39 goals with his lowest career shooting percentage. Why? Volume. First season with more than 3 shots a game. But he stopped shooting as much in the last half of last year and that's carried over to this year.

All three of these are about driving the play/making the play happen instead of waiting for things to happen.

Four, and this one is different and I can't explain it. He bobbles most pucks that come his way. While he has hands with the puck and his great with his feet, he struggles at catching passes smoothly (and least when compared to other higher end offensive players). I've seen him take some really hard passes to catch (in the feet, behind him). He often struggles with passes that aren't perfect but aren't that bad. Like a second basemen with the yips on easy ground balls but snags every gapper. Since he's simultaneously trying to play a precision game, this makes his game far less effective than it could be.

[Zedlee]

To me, the only thing that matters is the playoffs...we want a Stanley Cup. The Canucks need guys who can fight through the playoff grind and still deliver. It's tough and not everyone can do it. Can Petey? I'm not sure. Last year he was outmatched (1 goal, 13 games). I cannot understand why the Canucks did not wait until after the playoffs to negotiate a contract. Had they waited they could have played hardball and maybe signed him for less. What can they do now except hold on and hope he can elevate his game when the going gets tough. At this point he hasn't proven that.

[theman]

All very good points made.

Would the potential return of a Petey trade be worth more than sticking out with Petey and hope he hits that next level? Also, could a Petey trade add to the 'outer core' which UWSaint earlier spoke about? What I mean is, would the assets coming back be able to keep the current window of the Canucks open and even add to the quality of the Canucks core.

Here is something else to think about, if there is such an issue between Petey and Miller, would a Miller trade (even if it brings back a bit less) be a better more for the Canucks? Assuming of course that trading Miller would also bring back the 'old' Petey + whatever assets the Canucks would get in any trade.

[Strangelove]

I think the CC consensus has been that Petey's problems are between his ears.

And I concur with that consensus.

However, he's not alone on this team in that department.

In fact, 3 of our 5 best players

... Petey, Miller, Boeser...

have displayed signs of extreme mental/emotional fragility.

Demko, one of the other 5, could possibly be injury-prone.

But I suspect he's also a nut... imagining this popliteus issue to be much more than it is.

Thank God that, last but not least... Hughes... is a rock!

I don't like the idea of "trading low" on Petey, but if an offer knocks your socks off... ?

But then I'd say the same about either Miller or Boeser.

(can't trade away a top goalie in his prime)

(also, most goalies are certifiable anyway)

Having said all that, sanity is overrated and all of the best people are mad.

[donlever]

In your head, what's in your head?

[5thhorseman]

I think the CC consensus has been that Petey's problems are between his ears.

I think to some extent Petey has to reinvent his game, become more physical, drive the net, or just stay on his feet and protect the puck until the right play presents itself. Sure, fix his head and his current style of play may lead to consecutive 100+ point seasons, but it's also fragile and liable to getting shut down in the playoffs.

[Strangelove]

In your head, what's in your head?

Zombies.

[theman]

In your head, what's in your head?

Zombies.

Did you have to let it linger?

[Strangelove]

... fragile and liable to getting shut down in the playoffs.

Yes, but so too are most of the others in the core according to yours truly.

On the other hand, it's entirely possible these lunatics are so mad

... they could convince themselves they can win the Stanley Cup if they get on the same page!

It's so crazy it just might work!

[Strangelove]

In your head, what's in your head?

Zombies.

Did you have to let it linger?

Ridiculous thoughts.