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5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.

A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.

This is why testing is limited to those with definite symptoms

Topper wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:07 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.

A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.

This is why testing is limited to those with definite symptoms

I heard they opened it up to anyone as of last Thursday.

Doyle Hargraves wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:17 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.

A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.

Why do you assume it was a high probability of Covid? There are many viruses that have similar symptoms. Not to mention with the hysteria being shoved down our gullets the past 7 or 8 weeks, that a lot of people (not all of course) are going to immediately believe that they may have it. It’s human nature. Hopefully in the case of your friend, she is free and clear of this virus.

Because that's what the doctors said. They were 90% sure. Turned out to be wrong and she's much better today and returns home after a couple nights there. Her husband says the hospital is pretty much empty.

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:09 pm

Topper wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:07 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.

A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.

This is why testing is limited to those with definite symptoms

I heard they opened it up to anyone as of last Thursday.

No, it is less targeted now, but you still need symptoms. prior, if you reported symptoms, you may not be tested, they would tel you to stay home and to self isolate, run the contact tracing drill and notify people, but only once your symptoms reach a certain level would they test. If people showed up in hospital with respiratory issues, they would likely get tested. That is why the positive test rate is so low. It would be interesting to know the number of suspected cases who recovered through self isolation without testing. It would also be good to know if their # of test number that is reported corresponds to number of unique individuals or if it includes all tests administered including follow ups.

The data I'd really like to see is spacial with time. Layered maps with time being the a axis and linkage vectors. The have enough GIS folks on the payroll in Victoria that they must be doing it, but privacy issues will keep that from the public eye.

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:11 pm

Doyle Hargraves wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:17 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.

A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.

Why do you assume it was a high probability of Covid? There are many viruses that have similar symptoms. Not to mention with the hysteria being shoved down our gullets the past 7 or 8 weeks, that a lot of people (not all of course) are going to immediately believe that they may have it. It’s human nature. Hopefully in the case of your friend, she is free and clear of this virus.

Because that's what the doctors said. They were 90% sure. Turned out to be wrong and she's much better today and returns home after a couple nights there. Her husband says the hospital is pretty much empty.

Same up here. Empty hospital.

We're at the point now where people are afraid to go to the hospital for stuff they should go for, and some of the cancelled elective procedures have progressed to the point where they shouldn't be elective anymore, but the patients aren't going for appointments, imaging, labs, etc.....

I'm happy to hear more frequently that provinces have a plan to reopen things and are looking to do so in the next month.

There's still too much talk of government control and consequences etc.

Topper wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:26 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:09 pm

Topper wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:07 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.

A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.

This is why testing is limited to those with definite symptoms

I heard they opened it up to anyone as of last Thursday.

No, it is less targeted now, but you still need symptoms. prior, if you reported symptoms, you may not be tested, they would tel you to stay home and to self isolate, run the contact tracing drill and notify people, but only once your symptoms reach a certain level would they test. If people showed up in hospital with respiratory issues, they would likely get tested. That is why the positive test rate is so low. It would be interesting to know the number of suspected cases who recovered through self isolation without testing. It would also be good to know if their # of test number that is reported corresponds to number of unique individuals or if it includes all tests administered including follow ups.

The data I'd really like to see is spacial with time. Layered maps with time being the a axis and linkage vectors. The have enough GIS folks on the payroll in Victoria that they must be doing it, but privacy issues will keep that from the public eye.

Well if you are referring specifically to local healthcare authorities and the cases where doctors are logging presumed cases where testing is not being done, then the confidentiality issues will preclude that.

However if you want to look at the WHO's last model, they are speculating that 2-3% of the world's population has developed antibodies to this virus, which they admit is lower than they expected.....however that range is anywhere from 145-225 million people worldwide.

Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:
Despite limited and conflicting data on the use of hydroxychloroquine in patients with Covid-19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized the emergency use of this drug when clinical trials are unavailable or infeasible. Hydroxychloroquine, alone or in combination with azithromycin, is being widely used in Covid-19 therapy based on anecdotal and limited observational evidence.

METHODS:
We performed a retrospective analysis of data from patients hospitalized with confirmed SARS- CoV-2 infection in all United States Veterans Health Administration medical centers until April 11, 2020. Patients were categorized based on their exposure to hydroxychloroquine alone (HC) or with azithromycin (HC+AZ) as treatments in addition to standard supportive management for Covid-19. The two primary outcomes were death and the need for mechanical ventilation. We determined the association between treatment and the primary outcomes using competing risk hazard regression adjusting for clinical characteristics via propensity scores. Discharge and death were taken into account as competing risks and subdistribution hazard ratios are presented.

RESULTS:
A total of 368 patients were evaluated (HC, n=97; HC+AZ, n=113; no HC, n=158). Rates of death in the HC, HC+AZ, and no HC groups were 27.8%, 22.1%, 11.4%, respectively. Rates of ventilation in the HC, HC+AZ, and no HC groups were 13.3%, 6.9%, 14.1%, respectively.

Compared to the no HC group, the risk of death from any cause was higher in the HC group (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.10 to 6.17; P=0.03) but not in the HC+AZ group (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.56 to 2.32; P=0.72). The risk of ventilation was similar in the HC group (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.53 to 3.79; P=0.48) and in the HC+AZ group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.16 to 1.12; P=0.09), compared to the no HC group.

CONCLUSIONS:
In this study, we found no evidence that use of hydroxychloroquine, either with or without azithromycin, reduced the risk of mechanical ventilation in patients hospitalized with Covid-19. An association of increased overall mortality was identified in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone. These findings highlight the importance of awaiting the results of ongoing prospective, randomized, controlled studies before widespread adoption of these drugs.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf


It should also be noted that the initial French study that started the chloroquine hullabaloo had four patients eliminated from the study. One that died before the study was finished and three that were transferred to intensive care. Thus the success rate presented in that study should be taken with a generous sprinkle of sodium chloride.

https://forbetterscience.com/2020/03/26 ... -covid-19/

Regarding testing. I first came down with symptoms March 11. I called the hotline number. My symptoms were not serious and inspite of my risk factors and age and was told I could not get a test but to self isolate. I haven't left my apartment building since then and only go out to do garbage runs or check mail.

On March 16 I was notified that I was directly exposed to a woman who had tested positive and was seriously ill. By then my symptoms were starting to abate. I still could not get tested.We were all at an event at SFU on March 7 and a group of 13 of us, 9 got symptoms, 1 was seriously ill, still recovering, the rest of us mild to moderate symptoms but have recovered. Only the seriously ill woman could get a test. So 9 out of 13 had symptoms, only 1 got a test. I am sure this is representative of the type of exposure we are looking at across the country. And this is just our group. There were over 100 people at this event.

Now the government has said they have opened it to anyone who wants a test. My doctor won't authorize even any of the antibody tests. So you still need a doctor to authorize, there are no drive through or walk through testing sites.

But I think I got this thing in Nov. Mid to late Nov I was very ill. Full blown all the symptoms of Covid. I was sick for over three weeks, until just before Christmas. Never had chest congestion and pain like that. I spent 4 days holding off going to emerge. Fortunately good friend of mine is a doctor and she kept her eye on me. She said to me if this doesn't break in the next 24 hours you need to go to emerge. But we weren't watching for Covid then. At any rate I recovered and was feeling pretty good by March 7. Then I got the symptoms again. So my theory is that I had a tough case of it in Nov and got re-exposed in March and got just a lighter case of it. Perhaps my body had enough antibodies to fight off the worse. But there has been no effort to test, do contract tracing or do historically checking.

As I talk to people all over I am hearing similar stories. I'm one of those when I travel I make connections and stay in touch with people. So many I contact share similar experiences of being very ill Nov/Dec but are fine now, or only had mild symptoms. I've talked to people in Spain, Germany, France, US, Mexico, Balkans, Morocco, and other parts of Eastern Europe, including Russia. All of this is very anecdotal, I know but I really really think this thing had spread worldwide back in Nov/Dec. But I would like an antibody test at least to know If I did have it at some point.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/sweden-r ... ockdowns/

Sweden has recorded more than 19,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of Tuesday afternoon, resulting in 2,355 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. By comparison, Sweden’s Nordic neighbors — Denmark, Norway and Finland — have recorded just 434, 206 and 199 deaths, respectively, as of Tuesday afternoon.

Yikes. These stats are from a few weeks ago even...

Per, would you attribute the idiocy of the swedish policy more to arrogance or stupidity? I'm leaning towards arrogance

The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 11:33 am https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/sweden-r ... ockdowns/

Sweden has recorded more than 19,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of Tuesday afternoon, resulting in 2,355 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. By comparison, Sweden’s Nordic neighbors — Denmark, Norway and Finland — have recorded just 434, 206 and 199 deaths, respectively, as of Tuesday afternoon.

Yikes. These stats are from a few weeks ago even...

Per, would you attribute the idiocy of the swedish policy more to arrogance or stupidity? I'm leaning towards arrogance

It's May Day.

Godless heathens celebrating the phallic symbolism of dirty maypoles in a disgusting display of pagan debauchery!

(not that there's anything wrong with it)

Per is no doubt making rather merry and unlikely to respond to your post today...

The penis worship is on midsommar or solstice.

Yesterday was valborg or something which is about witches and bonfires to ward them away. Doubtful Per does much celebrating with that...not like in June

MAYPOLES WIZ, MAYPOLES!!!

Christians tried to change pagan holidays in an attempt to save the fiends from themselves

... but to this day some of the lost buggerees still celebrate in the old manner.

Call me old-fashioned, but I prefer the Crusader conversion methods...

Strangelove wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 2:39 pm MAYPOLES WIZ, MAYPOLES!!!

Christians tried to change pagan holidays in an attempt to save the fiends from themselves

... but to this day some of the lost buggerees still celebrate in the old manner.

Call me old-fashioned, but I prefer the Crusader conversion methods...

I dont think its a swedish thing so much anymore. I just asked the wife and she thinks only her grandfather called the cock thing a maypole

The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 3:17 pm I dont think its a swedish thing so much anymore

Okay then where's Per?

Strangelove wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 3:19 pm

The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 3:17 pm I dont think its a swedish thing so much anymore

Okay then where's Per?

Burning his Michael Moore fan club paraphernalia