The primary goal of this site is to provide mature, meaningful discussion about the Vancouver Canucks. However, we all need a break some time so this forum is basically for anything off-topic, off the wall, or to just get something off your chest! This forum is named after poster Creeper, who passed away in July of 2011 and was a long time member of the Canucks message board community.
Per wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:30 pm
Yeah, we still have no idea what the real mortality rate for covid-19 is, and we won’t know for quite some time. First of all, no one has a clue to how many have been infected, and secondly, we only have a very rough idea of how many have died from it. Most countries do not include those who die at home or in nursing homes, they only count those who have died in a hospital after being diagnosed with covid-19. But as shown in eg the Financial Times article I posted, the true number is much higher. They estimate it to be roughly 60% higher than what the official reports say. This based on comparing how many have died specific weeks in March and April compared to the average for the same weeks 2015-2019.
The original estimates of the mortality rate were way too high, because they still hadn’t realized that at least half of those infected show no symptoms. They mainly tested those that were so sick they needed to be hospitalized, which is now believed to be roughly 10% of those infected.
I recently heard a professor in epidemiology suggest that the covid-19 mortality rate probably lies somewhere between 0.4 and 1.6. Your suggestion of 0.8 fits nicely into that span, so it’s probably as good a guess as anyone has at this point in time.
But 0.8 means it is six times deadlier than the flu, and make no mistake about it - the flu kills a lot of people!
That’s why we recommend everyone above 60 to get their flu shots.
This disease is roughly twice as contagious and roughly six times as deadly.
It’s not just fun and games.
Just to clarify, my suggested 0.8% was in the USA only where the reporting is ridiculously skewed due to counting a heart attack as Covid because they were found to have it postmortem. The projected numbers based off of the WHO's model is 0.09%.
Considering that blood clots is a symptom of covid-19, it seems quite logical that it will cause heart attacks and strokes.
Why shouldn’t those deaths count?
And you keep saying there is overreporting, but as a comparisson between the number of weekly deaths in the USA in 2020 to historic data shows, there is severe underreporting of covid-19 deaths. Either that or something unknown is killing thousands of people.
I’ve already linked to articles in the New York Times and the Financial Times showing this.
So, if the 300% rise in weekly deaths in New York is not caused by corona, what is it that all these people die from?
More Americans have now died from corona than were killed in the Vietnam war.
More died of the Spanish Flu than in both world wars combined.
That was just a flu.
Disease can kill. It’s a fact of life. But if medical doctors are coming out in the US saying they are being directly encouraged to push Covid on death certificates how is that under reporting.
Quit jumping at shadows. I’m not denying the spike in deaths. I’m saying this thing is not as deadly as they are trying to make everyone think it is. I’m talking about total mortality rate. That includes the cases that don’t get reported because they were never tested.
Somewhere in NW BC trying (yet again) to trade a(nother) Swede…..
Mëds wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:48 pm
More died of the Spanish Flu than in both world wars combined.
That was just a flu.
Saying that the Spanish flu was ”just a flu” is a bit like saying that Adolf was just an annoying Austrian with a ’stache.
Disease can kill. It’s a fact of life. But if medical doctors are coming out in the US saying they are being directly encouraged to push Covid on death certificates how is that under reporting.
They may well be encouraged to over report, but the huge gap between excess deaths and reported covid-19 deaths effectively proves that they are under reporting. Guess they are rebels who refuse to do as they are told.
Quit jumping at shadows. I’m not denying the spike in deaths. I’m saying this thing is not as deadly as they are trying to make everyone think it is. I’m talking about total mortality rate. That includes the cases that don’t get reported because they were never tested.
Absolutely. And it should also include the covid-19 deaths that don’t get reported. The truth is it will probably take two years before we can find out what the true mortality rate is (was). At this point there are too many unknowns. But I would be surprised if it is not within the 0.4-1.6 range. Less than half of what was initially reported, but still way above the seasonal flu.
Brad Ziemer
@BradZiemer
Vancouver Park Board announces May 1 re-opening of Fraserview and McCleery golf courses. Langara remaining closed as its clubhouse is being used to distribute food to Downtown Eastside. Pitch and putt courses remaining closed for now.
Brad Ziemer
@BradZiemer
Vancouver Park Board announces May 1 re-opening of Fraserview and McCleery golf courses. Langara remaining closed as its clubhouse is being used to distribute food to Downtown Eastside. Pitch and putt courses remaining closed for now.
Really? People can't be trusted to social distance at a pitch and putt? Contracting covid through surface contact is quite rare, just don't try and convince your spouse of that
Brad Ziemer
@BradZiemer
Vancouver Park Board announces May 1 re-opening of Fraserview and McCleery golf courses. Langara remaining closed as its clubhouse is being used to distribute food to Downtown Eastside. Pitch and putt courses remaining closed for now.
Really? People can't be trusted to social distance at a pitch and putt? Contracting covid through surface contact is quite rare, just don't try and convince your spouse of that
5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:03 am
So it appears those reports of reinfections in S. Korea turned out to be false positives due to detection of virus fragments.
The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.
A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.
5thhorseman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 pm
The test we are using here in BC isn't too great either.
A friend went to the hospital the other day with a high probability of covid. They had test twice; the test is only 70% accurate, i.e. gives a false negative 30% of the time. Came back negative both times, but I guess there's still a 9% chance she's got it.
Why do you assume it was a high probability of Covid? There are many viruses that have similar symptoms. Not to mention with the hysteria being shoved down our gullets the past 7 or 8 weeks, that a lot of people (not all of course) are going to immediately believe that they may have it. It’s human nature. Hopefully in the case of your friend, she is free and clear of this virus.
“I don’t care what you and some other poster were talking about”
