Just Not ready

[Topper]

Listen to the endless meaningless buzzwords coming from the civic politician

https://x.com/stephen_taylor/status/189 ... wJuvg&s=19

[5thhorseman]

The war could be over in a few weeks. This smacks to me of shoveling money out the door at the last minute. And there isn't much in the way of guns and ammunition left in Western stockpiles to send over, With the deindustrialization and the financialization of Western economies in the post cold war era we no longer have the surge capacity to ramp up production. We have basically shot our wad while Russia continues to pump out product at a rate orders of magnitude greater than Western countries because the nmantained their post WW2 capacity and continued to update and modernize. Russia always believed they would have to fight NATO on the Ukrainian steppe one day as they fought invaders there so many times through history. They lost 27 million people the last time out and they are paranoid.

I disagree Megs. The west has mostly sent over old surplus that is kicking Russia's ass. Russia has old factories that make mostly old junk. If we got half serious, we could easily arm Ukraine to the point it causes Russia to collapse. Russia is in serious economic and military trouble and has lost the ability to project power like it used to. Hell, reports are half of its ammo is old north Korean crap, and most of its drones are from Iran. Add in a massive drop in recruitment, and Russia is in big trouble.

Also, Europe (finally) has decided to get serious about military spending. That trend will last a decade at least.

My best guess is Europe will fund Ukraine til Ukraine wins. The Baltic nations will see to that. Hell, they might even send troops. NapoleMacron has hinted at it. Fortress Europa.

Strangely, the USA could end this war in a week just by emptying warehouses of Bradleys, Abrams, Aamrams, Tomahawks and other old stuff. Trump could beat Putin, and brag about it for 4 years. Too bad he is going the wrong way.

But, a side effect is that the USA will have to face China without major european assistance.

And in the long run, democracies (Europe, Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia and a few others) will trade mostly among themselves, and be stronger for it.

Or, we all die in an Armageddon initiated by the leaves winning the cup.

Good post Tciso. What I gather is that at the current pace, Russia will run out of ammo in 18 months. Trump is losing the chance to establish his legacy.

NapoleMacron

Ha! Watch NapoleMacron correct Trump about who should pay the bill for the war.

https://youtu.be/-UukCHuAHNU?si=0GvciblH4-C-Bm9I

[rikster]

The war could be over in a few weeks. This smacks to me of shoveling money out the door at the last minute. And there isn't much in the way of guns and ammunition left in Western stockpiles to send over, With the deindustrialization and the financialization of Western economies in the post cold war era we no longer have the surge capacity to ramp up production. We have basically shot our wad while Russia continues to pump out product at a rate orders of magnitude greater than Western countries because the nmantained their post WW2 capacity and continued to update and modernize. Russia always believed they would have to fight NATO on the Ukrainian steppe one day as they fought invaders there so many times through history. They lost 27 million people the last time out and they are paranoid.

I disagree Megs. The west has mostly sent over old surplus that is kicking Russia's ass. Russia has old factories that make mostly old junk. If we got half serious, we could easily arm Ukraine to the point it causes Russia to collapse. Russia is in serious economic and military trouble and has lost the ability to project power like it used to. Hell, reports are half of its ammo is old north Korean crap, and most of its drones are from Iran. Add in a massive drop in recruitment, and Russia is in big trouble.

Also, Europe (finally) has decided to get serious about military spending. That trend will last a decade at least.

My best guess is Europe will fund Ukraine til Ukraine wins. The Baltic nations will see to that. Hell, they might even send troops. NapoleMacron has hinted at it. Fortress Europa.

Strangely, the USA could end this war in a week just by emptying warehouses of Bradleys, Abrams, Aamrams, Tomahawks and other old stuff. Trump could beat Putin, and brag about it for 4 years. Too bad he is going the wrong way.

But, a side effect is that the USA will have to face China without major european assistance.

And in the long run, democracies (Europe, Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia and a few others) will trade mostly among themselves, and be stronger for it.

Or, we all die in an Armageddon initiated by the leaves winning the cup.

War is an interesting business which has many branches to it and is lucrative for many players..

The first Gulf War was an example...fabricate a reason for an invasion so that you can empty your stockpile of weapons and equipment that over time have become redundant while having NATO countries pay you for doing so...

Then the weapons contractors of which the top half dozen or so are American build new and better weapons and equipment and make lots of money doing so...Almost $200 Billion in 2022 alone...

Then the rebuilding companies are contracted to rebuild what was destroyed...Knew someone whose fathers concrete business held contracts to help with the rebuilding of areas of the Middle East that had been destroyed during the first Gulf War...

How much has the war in Ukraine cost Canadians and other NATO countries? If you follow the money and weave your way thru grants and loans and free money and confiscated Russian assets and then consider the cost benefit to Lockhead Martin and the other weapons makers and then factor in the lucrative reconstruction contracts has it really been a cost or a profit?

While the focus has been on Trump demanding rare earth minerals from Ukraine as a way to repay their involvment, I would expect that he along with the Canadian Government will be negotiating contracts for Canadian companies to go into Ukraine and help rebuild it which will be very lucrative...

And the cycle will continue...

China is worrisome in that they have been stockpiling state of the art weapontry which over time is not so state of the art and will be looking for a way to empty their stockpiles so that they can boost their economy by replenishing their weapons and other technology...

Where will they go to do so?..

[5thhorseman]

While the focus has been on Trump demanding rare earth minerals from Ukraine as a way to repay their involvment, I would expect that he along with the Canadian Government will be negotiating contracts for Canadian companies to go into Ukraine and help rebuild it which will be very lucrative...

Yes, this would be the normal expectation, so it's extremely strange that Trump would betray the Ukraine at this juncture. Does this mean that the EU, UK and Canada will get the lion's share of those rebuilding contracts?

China is worrisome in that they have been stockpiling state of the art weapontry which over time is not so state of the art and will be looking for a way to empty their stockpiles so that they can boost their economy by replenishing their weapons and other technology...

Where will they go to do so?..

My first thought is resource-rich Siberia. Then again, the Russians couldn't offer much resistance so the Chinese wouldn't be able to empty their stockpiles very much.

Anyways, we're in the wrong thread now.

[Topper]

Resource rich Mongolia

[Megaterio Llamas]

The war could be over in a few weeks. This smacks to me of shoveling money out the door at the last minute. And there isn't much in the way of guns and ammunition left in Western stockpiles to send over, With the deindustrialization and the financialization of Western economies in the post cold war era we no longer have the surge capacity to ramp up production. We have basically shot our wad while Russia continues to pump out product at a rate orders of magnitude greater than Western countries because the nmantained their post WW2 capacity and continued to update and modernize. Russia always believed they would have to fight NATO on the Ukrainian steppe one day as they fought invaders there so many times through history. They lost 27 million people the last time out and they are paranoid.

I disagree Megs. The west has mostly sent over old surplus that is kicking Russia's ass. Russia has old factories that make mostly old junk. If we got half serious, we could easily arm Ukraine to the point it causes Russia to collapse. Russia is in serious economic and military trouble and has lost the ability to project power like it used to. Hell, reports are half of its ammo is old north Korean crap, and most of its drones are from Iran. Add in a massive drop in recruitment, and Russia is in big trouble.

Also, Europe (finally) has decided to get serious about military spending. That trend will last a decade at least.

My best guess is Europe will fund Ukraine til Ukraine wins. The Baltic nations will see to that. Hell, they might even send troops. NapoleMacron has hinted at it. Fortress Europa.

Strangely, the USA could end this war in a week just by emptying warehouses of Bradleys, Abrams, Aamrams, Tomahawks and other old stuff. Trump could beat Putin, and brag about it for 4 years. Too bad he is going the wrong way.

But, a side effect is that the USA will have to face China without major european assistance.

And in the long run, democracies (Europe, Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia and a few others) will trade mostly among themselves, and be stronger for it.

Or, we all die in an Armageddon initiated by the leaves winning the cup.

Good post Tciso. What I gather is that at the current pace, Russia will run out of ammo in 18 months. Trump is losing the chance to establish his legacy.

NapoleMacron

Ha! Watch NapoleMacron correct Trump about who should pay the bill for the war.

https://youtu.be/-UukCHuAHNU?si=0GvciblH4-C-Bm9I

Of course they were reduced to fighting with shovels and stealing chips out of Ukrainian washing machines three years ago so this has to be equally true right.

We're drowning in a tsunami of bullshit and I feel fine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64855760

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ort-2023-9

https://www.vice.com/en/article/russian ... ence-says/

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-says ... ons-2022-5

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... -military/

the ruble is rubble - Ursula von de Leyen

[Megaterio Llamas]

Rheinmetall CEO: Europe, Ukraine’s Arms Depots Are Empty

Europe and Ukraine’s weapons stockpiles are depleted, and demand for arms will remain high – even if the war stops, says Rheinmetall’s CEO.

European and Ukrainian weapons warehouses are empty due to insufficient weapon stockpiles on the continent, Armin Papperger, chief executive of Rheinmetall, said in an interview with the Financial Times (FT).

Rheinmetall’s CEO said that demand for arms will remain strong – even if a ceasefire is reached between Ukraine and Russia.

“The Europeans and the Ukrainians have nothing in their depots,” he said.

Papperger also expressed doubt that Russia would actually “stop firing” as a result of US President Donald Trump’s peace talks with the Kremlin.

He said that even if a ceasefire were reached, Europe would continue investing in its defense to counter the continue threat of Russian aggression.

“Even if the war [in Ukraine] stops—if we think that we have a very peaceful future, I think that’s wrong,” Papperger said.

He also told FT that European nations have been sidelined in discussions over Ukraine’s future due to decades of underinvestment in defense.

Europe has only itself to blame for being excluded from Trump’s negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Papperger said.

“If you don’t invest, if you’re not strong, they treat you like children,” he said, criticizing Europe’s long-standing reluctance to increase military spending.

Papperger said that European nations have been content with spending just 1% of GDP on defense over the past 30 years, a decision that, in his view, left them powerless in major geopolitical discussions.

Papperger compared Europe’s position to that of children being placed at a separate table while the “parents” – the US and Russia – conducted serious negotiations.

“The US is negotiating with Russia, and no European is at the table. It has become very clear that the Europeans are the kids,” he said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

by Kyiv Post | Feb. 18, 2025, 5:06 pm

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47363

[Tciso]

Britain and France have nukes. They will get a seat.

Or, they can transfer nukes back to Ukraine, who previously gave up their nukes for guaranteed security.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Britain and France have nukes. They will get a seat.

Or, they can transfer nukes back to Ukraine, who previously gave up their nukes for guaranteed security.

The Ukrainians never had the launch codes to the nukes formerly deployed in Ukraine. Those were Soviet weapons controlled by Moscow.

Britain annd France do have nuclear deterent capabilities.

[Megaterio Llamas]

It seems Chrystia Freeland talked about a nuclear alliance against the United Sttes in the Liberal debate:

I knew the Libs were kind of dangerous, but this is nuts.


https://x.com/KirkLubimov/status/1894574336474058962

[Topper]

Hilariously, she opened with the same story of the four year old girl.

They all had the same opening statements as they used last night. Got in late, so just catching it now.

[rikster]

It seems Chrystia Freeland talked about a nuclear alliance against the United Sttes in the Liberal debate:

I knew the Libs were kind of dangerous, but this is nuts.


https://x.com/KirkLubimov/status/1894574336474058962

Why shouldn't Canada have a nuclear deterent?

Never crossed our mnds until another NATO country made it clear it has interest in taking the country away from us....

Came away pretty upbeat about the opportunites that lay ahead for the country, and was pretty upset learning that 80% of our military spend goes to purchase US products..

Man has Canada been sleeping at the wheel...

Carney and Bayliss were both pretty impressive while Gould just wants to give us more free stuff to make things better...

[Topper]

Both Carney and Freeland returned to their WEF roots and some of a "Global New World Order".

Carney round aboutly admitted the countries finances have been a mess the past five years that he has been advising the government and that many of the policies have been wrong and need to be scrapped. Freeland countered that he was taking Conservative talking points.

All want to keep social programs in place, Gould and somewhat Freeland, want to expand them, cut taxes, and increase spending. Money grows on trees.

Carney said that grants, subsidies and tax relief to foreign companies, think Trudeau's EV mess, are the things he would split out of his operational budget into a seperate budget. It seems rather arbitrary what spending goes where but it is what he calls investments. It isn't a capital expenditure budget, rather a slush fund budget for pet white elephants.

Gould, who should be running for the NDP, with the zinger of the night when talking of dealing with Trump, "you don't bring a pocket calculator to a knife fight". Sadly that was as rough as the debate got.

Bayless was the only one to criticize Trudeau's handling of Trump negotiations a weak.

There was no real domestic bread and butter discussion. Nothing on crime, drugs, very little on housing and Gould was the only one to connect with voters on pocket books issues. Sadly her idea are for more government spending.

As Kinsella noted, it was Ottawa insiders sipping wine in a swanky bar talking to Ottawa insiders. They weren't talking to voters.

There is more life in a scrap of lumber than in Carney. He'll be eaten alive in a real debate or negotiation where he needs to think on his feet. Great moment in the post debate presser when a reporter asked him about being vice chair of Brookfield. Carney snapped " I was chairman".

All refused and weaseled out of the direct question of what they would do differently from Trudeau.

Carney went after Pierre's security clearance. LOL, don't they realize that he has security clearance when he was a minister in the Harper government. Carney squirmed when asked how he had time to do his security clearance paperwork but not his financial disclosure paperwork.

Pierre and Yves won the debate.

[rikster]

Both Carney and Freeland returned to their WEF roots and some of a "Global New World Order".

Carney round aboutly admitted the countries finances have been a mess the past five years that he has been advising the government and that many of the policies have been wrong and need to be scrapped. Freeland countered that he was taking Conservative talking points.

All want to keep social programs in place, Gould and somewhat Freeland, want to expand them, cut taxes, and increase spending. Money grows on trees.

Carney said that grants, subsidies and tax relief to foreign companies, think Trudeau's EV mess, are the things he would split out of his operational budget into a seperate budget. It seems rather arbitrary what spending goes where but it is what he calls investments. It isn't a capital expenditure budget, rather a slush fund budget for pet white elephants.

Gould, who should be running for the NDP, with the zinger of the night when talking of dealing with Trump, "you don't bring a pocket calculator to a knife fight". Sadly that was as rough as the debate got.

Bayless was the only one to criticize Trudeau's handling of Trump negotiations a weak.

There was no real domestic bread and butter discussion. Nothing on crime, drugs, very little on housing and Gould was the only one to connect with voters on pocket books issues. Sadly her idea are for more government spending.

As Kinsella noted, it was Ottawa insiders sipping wine in a swanky bar talking to Ottawa insiders. They weren't talking to voters.

There is more life in a scrap of lumber than in Carney. He'll be eaten alive in a real debate or negotiation where he needs to think on his feet. Great moment in the post debate presser when a reporter asked him about being vice chair of Brookfield. Carney snapped " I was chairman".

All refused and weaseled out of the direct question of what they would do differently from Trudeau.

Carney went after Pierre's security clearance. LOL, don't they realize that he has security clearance when he was a minister in the Harper government. Carney squirmed when asked how he had time to do his security clearance paperwork but not his financial disclosure paperwork.

Pierre and Yves won the debate.

Bayless made a point that was likely directed at Gould but could also be pointed at PP and politicians in general...

In essense Governments need to follow the money to the outcome they desired when they put a program in place...

This came up during the discussion of defence spending as a % of GDP...while Gould wanted Canada to reach its 2% by 2027 Bayless said no, it's not about how quickly you reach the goal its how effectively you reach the goal...

With Carney and Bayless, it was obvious that they spoke from their business backgrounds which may have come across as lifeless or boring as compared to the snake oil approach so many politicians give us, but for me it was refreshing and encouraging to think that we will finally have someone who understands things like supply chain managment and how to create jobs and how to make government more effective...

Good to know Harper made PP get his security clearance, doesn't answer why he doesn't have it today?

Have you really convinced yourself that PP's understanding of economics and the real world is so superior to Carney's that he will eat him alive in a debate?

That's a hell of a feat and very impressive....

[Topper]

Carney busted lying again. He claimed the decision to move Brookfield out of Canada to NYC was after his departure from the Board.

Conservatives found the circular of the Board meeting when the decision was made. Meeting was chaired by Carney.

https://x.com/MikeBarrettON/status/1894767445593755711

https://x.com/DrJacobsRad/status/1894759104930808187

He really is a neophyte at this.