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[Strangelove]

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^Balance that with the fact Muslims are vastly outbreeding other groups (as Dan showed)

… and the fact that, despite your personal experience, folks born into Muslim families seldom leave the faith.

BTW I have a friend of 30 years who “fled for his life when the Shah was toppled”

… he is still a Muslim/raising his son in the faith to this very day.

But why is a facts-and-figures guy such as yourself going by personal experience all of a sudden?

(your page 31 graph doesn't cut it)

Isn’t it true that the percentage of Swedes who are Muslim was 5% seven years ago and 7% today?

And isn’t it true that Sweden’s Ministry of Defence has determined that

… the Muslim Brotherhood has “a very strong foothold and influence in Sweden”?

https://www.msb.se/Upload/Kunskapsbank/ ... 7-1287.pdf

Not sure why you went on so much about the Mandaeans and Assyrian Christians.

Aren’t the Mandaeans a drop in the Swedish immigrant bucket?

(10 times more Muslims in Sweden than Mandaeans?)

Aren’t your “Assyrians in Sweden” a tiny fraction of even that?

Also, isn’t it true that… of late… the number of Muslim immigrants is vastly increasing?

I dunno pal, you’re still reminding me of that Frank Drebin gif.

[Per]

.
^Balance that with the fact Muslims are vastly outbreeding other groups (as Dan showed)
… and the fact that, despite your personal experience, folks born into Muslim families seldom leave the faith.

Well, having pointed out that 68% of second generation immigrants in Sweden have one Swedish parent, and Swedes typically tend to be Christians or atheists, it is nowhere near certain that they will opt for Islam.

BTW I have a friend of 30 years who “fled for his life when the Shah was toppled”
… he is still a Muslim/raising his son in the faith to this very day.

Yeah, sure. And I know a Somali guy who agrees that girls should not be circumcised, but insists that his sons must be. It's natural that people stick to their religion. As long as they don't try to impose it on every one else, I'm quite OK with that.

The Iranian guy around the corner though, who used to work for SAVAK (so probably not as nice as he comes across) seems equally proud over his daughter's medical degree and her Swedish husband. I doubt his grandchildren will be Muslims.

The Syrian family down the street? Hard to tell.Their kids are like 5 and 7. But I do think they will be more Swedish than Syrian when they reach adulthood. And they eat the candy I give them without checking the label for gelatin, so...

Isn’t it true that the percentage of Swedes who are Muslim was 5% seven years ago and 7% today?

As I said, there are no official figures regarding religion in Sweden. Estimates vary between 200,000 and 800,000.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. It obviously must have increased in recent years, given the amount of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan we've taken in. I'd guess roughly half a million.

And isn’t it true that Sweden’s Ministry of Defence has determined that
… the Muslim Brotherhood has “a very strong foothold and influence in Sweden”?
https://www.msb.se/Upload/Kunskapsbank/ ... 7-1287.pdf

Technically, that's not the Defence Ministry, but the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, but sure.
There are salafists as well, who try to recruit people for jihad. It's good to know that our authorities are keeping track of them.

Not sure why you went on so much about the Mandaeans and Assyrian Christians.

To explain why the number of Muslims in Sweden suggested in many forums usually are inflated and simply wrong.

Aren’t the Mandaeans a drop in the Swedish immigrant bucket?

Sure. Not the greatest of groups, but I find the story of them intriguing.
Most people have no idea that John the Baptist's little group is still around.

Aren’t your “Assyrians in Sweden” a tiny fraction of even that?

Uhm, no. Approximately 150,000.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria ... _in_Sweden

Given that the estimates of the number of Muslims in Sweden vary from 200,000 to 800,000, I think the fact that many of the higher figures include Assyrians (and Mandeans, Bahaï, Zoroastrians, atheists, etc) is important to point out. Those numbers are severely inflated. My guess is that the higher figure includes up to 300,000 Middle Easterners that are not Muslims, and the Assyrians make up roughly half of that.

Also, isn’t it true that… of late… the number of Muslim immigrants is vastly increasing?

Obviously, it did. Ever since the unlawful invasion of Iraq by Dubya et al, Iraq and Syria have been a mess, so the number of people fleeing those countries is huge. And since so many countries do not pull their part, a lot have ended up here. But the peak was in 2014/15. Since then it has dropped back to more normal numbers.

I dunno pal, you’re still reminding me of that Frank Drebin gif.

Don't know who that is, but whatever...

[Strangelove]

Isn’t it true that the percentage of Swedes who are Muslim was 5% seven years ago and 7% today?

As I said, there are no official figures regarding religion in Sweden. Estimates vary between 200,000 and 800,000.

Aren’t your “Assyrians in Sweden” a tiny fraction of even that?

Uhm, no. Approximately 150,000.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria ... _in_Sweden

Given that the estimates of the number of Muslims in Sweden vary from 200,000 to 800,000

The same source that you just used for the Assyrians (Wikipedia) seems to indicate 810,000 Muslims in Sweden in 2017.

810,000 = 8.1% of the total population of Sweden of 10 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Sweden

From 150,000 - 200,000 Muslims.... to 810,000 Muslims in just three years!

GO MUSLIMS GO!!!

I dunno pal, you’re still reminding me of that Frank Drebin gif.

Don't know who that is, but whatever...

[Per]

The same source that you just used for the Assyrians (Wikipedia) seems to indicate 810,000 Muslims in Sweden in 2017.

810,000 = 8.1% of the total population of Sweden of 10 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Sweden

Uhm... no. The figure of 150,000 Assyrians/Syriacs (same people, but they can't agree on what to call themselves) is based on membership or affiliation to their organisations.
The same methodology, membership in a Muslim congregation, will give you the lower estimate of Muslims in Sweden, ie roughly 200,000. Now, it seems reasonable to have a broader definition of Muslims. They are not as tightly knit as the Assyrians, given that they are a much more diverse group, so it is reasonable that there can be a significant number of Muslims that do not belong to a specific congregation but still could be considered Muslims.

The wikipedia page mentions a number of estimates, including the PEW research report linked to earlier in this thread, which gives the figure 810,000. But I have just spent a significant amount of time explaining why that estimate is wrong.

The 200,000 estimate excludes a lot of people who are Muslims, but not members of a congregation.
The 810,000 estimate includes a lot of people who are not Muslims, but arrived from predominantely Muslim countries.

Neither figure is correct. My personal guess is that the truth lies right in the middle, ie roughly 500,000.

It is also worth to point out that on that same wikipedia page, it is suggested that only 40-50% of Swedish Muslims are practicing Muslims, ie the rest are not really religious, but happen to be of Muslim heritage.

Which is another reason why the Eurabia and sharia law scenario will never happen,
These are people who fled religious oppression. They are not going to want it back.

From 150,000 - 200,000 Muslims.... to 810,000 Muslims in just three years!

Yeah, you see yourself that that is impossible. We have not had that many immigrants arrive in those years. That would mean nearly half a million Swedes would have had to convert to Islam in that time frame.

You are taking figures reached through very different methods and comparing them.
For reasons I have already explained, the first estimate is too low and the second one is too high.

[Strangelove]

Gotta admire the effort you put into defending your cause there Frank

... even if it is liberalism.

But tell me, why do you think so many Swedes are leaning more to the right these days?

[2Fingers]

But tell me, why do you think so many Swedes are leaning more to the right these days?

Maybe it’s how they hang?

[Per]

Gotta admire the effort you put into defending your cause there Frank

... even if it is liberalism.

But tell me, why do you think so many Swedes are leaning more to the right these days?

Uhm... not quite true either. The conservative party has shrunk. The left party has grown, as has the centre party.
It's not really a clear electorate win for anyone.

Sure, the Sweden democrats have grown, but they are still just 17.5%, which means they'd probably not get a single seat in a first past the post system like Canada. Or, well, perhaps the odd seat in the province of Scania, which is where their support is the strongest.

If you look at the election results in Sweden, the two traditional blocks have both just above 40%. The red-greens ( not to be confused with a TV show) has like 40.7 and the centre-right alliance had 40.3, I think. Now, if you are thinking just left vs right, you could think that you could just add the Sweden democrats to the alliance and reach 57.8, but that won't fly.

Both the centre party and the liberals have vowed not to participate in a government that is dependent on the Sweden democrats, so if you add the SD, you have to remove those two, which brings us down to some 43%.

The only feasible government I can see is one governing from the middle.
Centre, Liberals, Social Democrats and Greens would have a total of 167 seats.
Lower than the 175 needed for a majority, but more than the combined 154 of the Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats.
The remaining 28 are the Left Party seats, and they will not unite with the right wing.

But, OK, why have the Sweden democrats attracted more voters?

I think it has several explanations. One is obviously immigration.
The one issue that unites them is that they want less immigrants.
The immigrants have become the scape goat for the economic contraction in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008/09.
SD forst managed to cross the 4% thresshold in 2010, and have then continued to grow in the 2014 and 2018 elections.

Another is that many marginalized voters, especially in small towns where industries have shut down, are fed up with the traditional parties and so look for someone else to turn to.

I do think that they are past their prime though. Many thought they'd do better in these elections than they did.
I genuinely believe the tides are turning, and that from now on we will return to typical Swedish core values such as tolerance, hospiltality and solidarity.

Many speculate that Annie Lööf, of the centre party, could become our next prime minister, once the dust settles, and she is the political leader that has been most outspoken against the Sweden democrats. If so, the SD will have virtually no say in Swedish politics over the next four years, and hopefully they will eventually crawl back under whatever rock they came out from under.

[Strangelove]

Okay, more and more Swedes want less immigrants.

But what about all this 'welfare system about to collapse' and 'crime is surging' business?

[Per]

Okay, more and more Swedes want less immigrants.

There is such a tendency in the present, but it depends a bit on time frame and perspective.
Below is a graph studying the change in attitude between 2002 and 2016 in different age cohorts:


http://www.diva-portal.se/smash/get/div ... TEXT01.pdf

Now, the figures in the graph may be a bit confusing. They are based on a question about how many immigrants from poorer countries we should accept, 1 = allow many; 2 = allow some ; 3 = allow few ; 4 = allow none

The average for the entire group in both 2002 and 2016 seem to be somewhere around 2.0, ie allow some.
But, that's not what's interesting really. Instead there are basically three things I think you can realize from studying this graph.

1) Up till 2008 tolerance for immigarnts was growing in all groups over time. Then I assume the 2008 financial crisis lead to less tolerance in the oldest and youngest cohorts. The others followed suite in 2010, except for the 1950-59 cohort that did not grow less tolerant till after 2012 and the 1940-49 that switched in 2014. After the first dip most continued to grow more tolerant till 2014.

2) As a result of the Syrian refugee crisis, tolerance dropped in all cohorts, except for the youngest one, but for most groups it only meant a return to the level they had in 2004. The exception being those born between 1930-39, 1940-49 and 1960-69, who were actually less tolerant in 2014 than in 2004. But even those groups are only averaging at 2.3, ie closer to "allow some" than "allow few". Whatever those statements mean.

3) The younger people are, the more tolerant they are toward immigrants. Which means the long term trend seems to be an increased tolerance for immigration as the older cohorts die off.

Since the extreme number of refugees asking for asylum in 2014/2015 has dropped back to more normal levels, I also expect the trend within each cohort to return to normalcy.

The Swedish Migration Agency estimated that the country received between 160,000-190,000 asylum-seekers in 2015, the highest per capita in the EU. In November 2015, Sweden instituted temporary border controls with Schengen countries in response to massive immigration flows. In 2016, the number of asylum seekers entering Sweden was approximately 30,000, a significant decrease from 2015. Numbers remain similar in 2017, as 25,666 individuals sought asylum in Sweden.

https://www.osac.gov/Pages/ContentRepor ... ?cid=23559

Also bear in mind that Swedes are an outlier within the EU when it comes to attitudes to migration.
Our old lo-eds are more positive than the young hi-eds in 13 out of 20 other EU countries.....

https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/do ... _FINAL.pdf
Sure, these figures are from 2015, so they may have fallen somewhat, but they're still exceptional.

[Per]

But what about all this 'welfare system about to collapse' and 'crime is surging' business?

Sigh. We are under attack from the alt right movement/Russia, who are doing their best to describe Sweden as a failed society.

The welfare system is under strain from an aging population in need of more and more healthcare, sure. But Sweden's economy is fundamentally sound, and as long as we can continue to add people of working age into the system, I'm sure we will manage.



As for crime... The overall trend is a drop in crime, especially when it comes to burglaries, assault and car theft, but there are some categories that are rising; especially fraud, vandalism (mainly graffiti, but also torched cars), shootings, and reported sexual assaults.

Fraud is a typical white collar crime and can hardly be linked to immigration. The shootings are up because of turf wars between criminal gangs in a handful of suburbs outside the three main cities. I read somewhere that of the people killed in shootings so far in Sweden in 2018, every one had a criminal record. As one policeman said on TV the other night when a reporter asked about rumours that two people who had been injured in a shooting were criminals: "we do not comment on that, but let me put it this way, regular citizens have no need to be concerned."

As for sexual assaults... Typically, the more equal gender rights a country has, the higher the number of reported sexual assaults. In Saudi Arabia there are no rapes at all reported most years. Even in Sweden they estimate that less than half of rapes are reported. But the number has kept growing, and most think it has to do with empowerment of women, as in the me too movement. Also, Sweden has a much broader definition of rape than most countries. There is eg no need for penetration. We were also the first country (in 1965) to accept that rape could occur within marriage. Many countries still do not recognise that. There could be an actual rise, but if you look at convictions, there is no clear evidence of that. It's mainly that more sexual assaults are reported.

Anyway, the whole is-crime-rising-or-falling has become very politicised. The authorities mainly state that crime is dropping, but the extreme right, Russians, etc dispute this. So instead of looking at Swedish sources, I will turn to the US State Department. In their 2018 Crime and Safety Report for Sweden they rank us at the lowest level, Level 1, which they also grant the other Scandinavian countries, except Denmark.
Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium and the UK are all ranked at Level 2 and eg Turkey and Russia are ranked at Level 3 and should be avoided.

Some quotes from the report:

The general crime rate in Sweden is below the U.S. national average

According to official statistics, the increase in the number of reported crimes in 2017 was negligible compared to 2016 (an increase by less than half a percent). The categories of crimes that reported the highest increase from 2016 were “crimes against persons”: primarily identity theft and crimes of sexual nature. 2016 saw a decrease in reported thefts (pickpocketing, shoplifting) and property damage.

Official Swedish homicide statistics (and final statistics for all reported crimes) are not released until late March of each year. There were 106 confirmed homicides in 2016, compared to 112 confirmed homicides in 2015.

106... what's that? A bad week in Chicago?

Organized criminal activity is driven by low-level organized criminal groups, many associated with larger motorcycle gangs and organized crime elements from Eastern Europe.

Violent crimes (homicides, sexual assaults) do occur. The majority occur in larger cities (Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmo). The number of reported rapes increased in 2017 by 10% compared to 2016 (7,230 reports in 2017 compared to 6,720 in 2016). The statistics show only the number of crimes reported and not the total number of actual crimes committed.

https://www.osac.gov/Pages/ContentRepor ... ?cid=23559

[ukcanuck]

But what about all this 'welfare system about to collapse' and 'crime is surging' business?

Sigh. We are under attack from the alt right movement/Russia, who are doing their best to describe Sweden as a failed society.

The welfare system is under strain from an aging population in need of more and more healthcare, sure. But Sweden's economy is fundamentally sound, and as long as we can continue to add people of working age into the system, I'm sure we will manage.



As for crime... The overall trend is a drop in crime, especially when it comes to burglaries, assault and car theft, but there are some categories that are rising; especially fraud, vandalism (mainly graffiti, but also torched cars), shootings, and reported sexual assaults.

Fraud is a typical white collar crime and can hardly be linked to immigration. The shootings are up because of turf wars between criminal gangs in a handful of suburbs outside the three main cities. I read somewhere that of the people killed in shootings so far in Sweden in 2018, every one had a criminal record. As one policeman said on TV the other night when a reporter asked about rumours that two people who had been injured in a shooting were criminals: "we do not comment on that, but let me put it this way, regular citizens have no need to be concerned."

As for sexual assaults... Typically, the more equal gender rights a country has, the higher the number of reported sexual assaults. In Saudi Arabia there are no rapes at all reported most years. Even in Sweden they estimate that less than half of rapes are reported. But the number has kept growing, and most think it has to do with empowerment of women, as in the me too movement. Also, Sweden has a much broader definition of rape than most countries. There is eg no need for penetration. We were also the first country (in 1965) to accept that rape could occur within marriage. Many countries still do not recognise that. There could be an actual rise, but if you look at convictions, there is no clear evidence of that. It's mainly that more sexual assaults are reported.

Anyway, the whole is-crime-rising-or-falling has become very politicised. The authorities mainly state that crime is dropping, but the extreme right, Russians, etc dispute this. So instead of looking at Swedish sources, I will turn to the US State Department. In their 2018 Crime and Safety Report for Sweden they rank us at the lowest level, Level 1, which they also grant the other Scandinavian countries, except Denmark.
Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium and the UK are all ranked at Level 2 and eg Turkey and Russia are ranked at Level 3 and should be avoided.

Some quotes from the report:

The general crime rate in Sweden is below the U.S. national average

According to official statistics, the increase in the number of reported crimes in 2017 was negligible compared to 2016 (an increase by less than half a percent). The categories of crimes that reported the highest increase from 2016 were “crimes against persons”: primarily identity theft and crimes of sexual nature. 2016 saw a decrease in reported thefts (pickpocketing, shoplifting) and property damage.

Official Swedish homicide statistics (and final statistics for all reported crimes) are not released until late March of each year. There were 106 confirmed homicides in 2016, compared to 112 confirmed homicides in 2015.

106... what's that? A bad week in Chicago?

Organized criminal activity is driven by low-level organized criminal groups, many associated with larger motorcycle gangs and organized crime elements from Eastern Europe.

Violent crimes (homicides, sexual assaults) do occur. The majority occur in larger cities (Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmo). The number of reported rapes increased in 2017 by 10% compared to 2016 (7,230 reports in 2017 compared to 6,720 in 2016). The statistics show only the number of crimes reported and not the total number of actual crimes committed.

https://www.osac.gov/Pages/ContentRepor ... ?cid=23559

Per,

You know that people with three teeth can’t read your response?

I have to believe that we are watching the end of the world as we know it.


It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine

[Mickey107]

[Mickey107]

Really big oops.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/8/1795 ... il-android

[Strangelove]

I don't suppose anyone has any advice on new refrigerators/dishwashers?

I know nothing of these things... need stainless steel, large capacity.

Present freezer compartment is not evenly freezing.

Timer on the dishwasher is messed up.

[2Fingers]

Bought a new fridge, confirmed height, confirmed width, did not check depth and the new one is deeper by a few inches so confirm all 3 sizes.

Shopped around and bought from Best Buy, did not get the ice cube maker or water as the filters were expensive and hard to keep clean and I would need to run a water line. Plus those are extra items that just break. Went with a bottom freezer as it is larger and easier to put things in and out especially since my wife is shorter and cannot always see way back in the freezer. Shelves in the freezer were not the wire type where things can fall from top shelve to bottom, helps when things fall out of bags and they care contained to 1 area.

Bought a stainless steel frisge, no finger print one, ok the no fingerprint part is a joke, finger prints everywhere and hard to keep clean. BUT did save money on the electrical bill as this new one was way more efficient. In future would never buy SS again.

Also bought a new dishwasher and went with the Bosch manufactured but not Bosch name, super freaking quiet that the first few times we did not know if it was working. I was a cheap bugger before and it was all about $ so I did not care about noise, it was so bad we would only put the dishwasher on before going to bed because you could not hear the TV. Did not get a SS dishwasher.

Installed myself and it was easy, the electrical part was a little tricky so was the different type of hoses going back and forth. Had to run some additional hose from the sink to the dishwasher hose so bought the extra stuff from Homedepot. Where the hose went it was a small fit so I sent my skinny son in to put part of it together.

Went simple and did not get a lot of the bells and whistles as again these things break, bought one where the tray will not discolour or rust after a couple years. They are all not econo so saving water is a priority, less water is used but the wash cycle can be longer, over 2 hours now. Can do a short wash for 45 minutes but never used it. Also the top does not have a the item that twirls around to put out water, when you have one on top and bottom you actually lose a couple inches to put tall items on the top shelve.