Assessing the Pacific
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2025 11:48 am
More can happen between now and free agency, but I thought it would be good to have a thread that take a look at where things stand in the Pacific Division. Bottom line? The Kings have done enough bad things this offseason to risk their spot, Vegas is the team to beat, and I'm not ready to jump on the Ducks bandwagon.
Vegas: (1st Place, 110 points). Added Marner, Sissons, Lauzon; Lost Pietrangelo*, Hague, Pearson, Roy.
Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you have to admire that the Golden Knights are never satisfied with being good and are always scheming to improve. They got the only free agent in the class (that didn’t re-sign) worth chasing, and while those they lost provided some quality, they were role players except Pietrangelo, and Pietrangelo is not who he was. More important that who you lose is what is left, and that’s a team that’s skilled AND fairly tough AND deep in all positions. Goaltending might be the weakness, but that’s relative. Hill is at least a league average starter and has won a Cup. And while the Knights are despised for their players’ preternatural ability to marry their injuries with team cap needs, the fact they have so many good players on good contracts is a testament to being smarter than the typical front office. And then there’s windfall value from guys like Dorofeyev.
The risk here is age and injury. But they should repeat as division champs and quite possibly compete for the President's Trophy (110-120 points), and if Marner can finally show in the playoffs, Vegas has to be considered a main challenger to Florida.
LA: (2d place, 105 points). Added: Armia (LOL!), Ceci (LOL!), Dumoulin (chuckle), Anton Forsberg, Perry; Lost: Gavrikov, Jeannot, Rittich, Spence
Welcome back to the western conference, Ken Holland. On the plus side for the Kings, they retained Kuzmenko, who hopefully isn’t porking up, and if they have the Corey Perry card, which is like drawing the ice cream float card right off the bat in Candyland. The downside is that exchanging Gavrikov and Spence for Ceci and Dumolin is sure to send them back to the gooey gumdrops.
There’s a lot of age in this group, but to be fair, there are also young players that can improve and take over a lot of productivity that is being provided by guys on the wrong side of 30, no, wait 35. Byfield, Clarke, Laferriere. And Kempe is an underrated star.
Thing is, even with the age, all the Kings needed to be a solid favorite to finish in the top 3 was to not make moves that made them worse. And then they did just that – made moves that made them worse. I’m not writing them off, but they aren’t playoff locks anymore. If Doughty continues to decline and Clarke still has much to learn, the solid-but-unspectacular Mikey Anderson is their best defenseman. That’s not good, especially if Kuemper regresses to the mean.
I think 92-102 points is where they will be.
Edmonton (3rd Place, 101 points). Added: Lazar, Mangiapane, Howard; Lost: Arvidsson, Brown, Klingberg, Skinner, Kane, Perry.
Raises to Draisatl and Bouchard meant all the Oilers could do this offseason was cap manage. When you’re biggest move is re-signing Frederic…. To be sure, they moved the right guys out given their expected value/contracts, but there is no way they’ve improved. They’ve lost depth and toughness, and most importantly, they haven’t addressed the goaltending. Mangiapane – wasn’t he demoted in Washington because Beau2 outplayed him? I don’t hate the player, but Mangiapane’s 35 goal season in Calgary a few years back is a mirage; he’s never had 20 goals other than that year and he really is best viewed as a middle six guy who can PK and forecheck.
Absent injuries to their core, they should still be a lock for the playoffs. Draisaitl and McDavid are that good and can play a lot to offset some of the depth issues. And the Pacific Division is that mediocre. But this team is far more fragile than last year. They may not be able to afford further slides in key core complements RNH and Hyman because I don’t see where else the production can come from. They might even need Evan Bouchard to become good at defense, too, with Ekholm aging and Nurse settled into mediocre middle pairing status.
I think they'll coast through the season, applying gas when needed and end up around 100 points. But I don't expect another playoff run.
Flames (4th place, 96 points). Added no one. Lost no one, aka Vladar.
On paper, I can’t figure out how this team got 96 points last season. Kadri played out of his mind, Huberdeau found a time machine (though really isn’t that old), and Coronato emerged as a nice young contributor. Weegar and Andersson provide skill and stability, and Bahl provide himself to be a worthwhile part of the Markstrom trade. Still, this looks like a team 80-85 point team to me, and overperformance more than youth coming of age drove that point total too much for my liking.
The Flames have been very quiet this offseason, which I think is completely prudent. I don’t know if its because they believe in the plan they have in place or because they don’t believe it – that they didn’t want to add this group because they weren’t sure. In the best case scenario, Wolf can improve further in get into the “one of the best goalies in the league” discussion, Bahl can become that reliable long reach stay at home every team is looking for, Andersson will play well and yield them a good trade haul, Coronato will become a true first liner, Farabee will show offensive skills and deliver on the promises of his early NHL career (he’s still young), and Frost will be a swiss army knife competent in all things player. But do I think this will happen? No. But Calgary’s management is in “hockey position,” ready to react to the play from a place of balance and stability. That’s sort of a win, though it might not be given last year’s success. Which they won’t duplicate IMO.
Expected points: 80-90.
Vancouver (5th place, 90 points). Added Kane; Lost Suter, Juulsen, Joshua.
There’s a lot from me on this board, so I’ll keep it short. If 96 points was the Flames at their ceiling, 90 points should be the floor for the Canucks, because they got that getting numerous pumpkin performances, battling injury, and lack of team cohesion. All of their important moves happened mid-season last year. With health, the team has the potential to be among the hardest to score against, and has enough bounce back candidates for some optimism the offense will improve. They are the most likely team in the Pacific to take LA’s spot. If they play boring and disciplined hockey and have good enough special teams, they should be a bubble team all year. The biggest risk factor beyond last year’s pumpkins rotting further and injury? A new coach, and the risk he’s not ready.
Expected points: 90-100.
Anaheim (6th place, 80 points). Added: Granlund, Husso, Kreider, Mrazek, Poehling; Lost: Gibson, Zegras.
The Ducks are an “it” team at the moment, but it still is a team of “mights” and “potential.” With the new additions, they have enough offense such that Carlsson, Gauthier, and McTavish don’t have to reach maximum velocity, but while all of the attention is on these grade A young forwards, it really is the defense that is holding the Ducks back. Here, too, there’s considerable potential: Mintykokov, Zellweger, LaCombe. But I don’t think its close enough to prime to be anything other than a relative liability. (It doesn’t help that Trouba and Gudas are pylons at this points). If I were Verbeek, I would have much rather looked for a Kreider equivalent on D (I guess maybe that’s what Trouba was?). The big regret should be moving Fowler. Wait, they had what they need: Cam Fowler. Well, they still have 40% or so of his salary…. Well at least they got a big return for Zegras. What’s that? They didn’t?
Still, I don’t think they are drawing to the inside straight. Its more like drawing to an outside straight. Maybe even with a flush option, too, given Coach Q. I don’t expect them to be there this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were. Still, I think they're more likely a 90 point team than a playoff team. Expected points (85-95).
Seattle (7th place, 76 points). Added: Gaudreau, Lindgren, Marchment; Lost: Burokovsky, Eyssimont.
To me, Seattle behaves like the Benning-era Canucks. When there’s a little room for premature optimism, they grab players in free agency for too steep a price that are not likely to provide that value but should make the team meaninglessly better. Stephenson and Montour a season ago (with no movement or no trade clauses!); this season it is Lindgren, who never gets that contract in a world with a deeper group of free agents, and Marchment – who, while on a decent contract for what he is, will not move the needle. And so there’s a constant cycle of contracts that you’d prefer not to have. The team isn’t bad, but it can’t be optimized.
Time will tell whether Kakko is a Baerstchi-level reclamation project or something better, but there is a story to tell here involving the somewhat disappointing Beniers, Kakko, Wright, Niemo, maybe even Catton where this team surprises in a good way. Unlike the Benning-era Canucks, it’s a good prospect system (but probably could be better), and they have a lot of draft capital. But its also a terribly imbalanced system – they are immune to drafting defense in the first round (Ryker Evans, though, appears to have been a good pick).
While there’s a story for success here, I think they should have planned for failure – not added players to get them a few marginal and meaningless points.
Expected Points (72-82).
San Jose. (8th place, 52 points). Added: Gaudette, Orlov, Klingberg, Kurashev, Misa, Nedeljkovic, Leddy; Lost: Vlasic
San Jose’s offseason strategy sort of looked Chicago’s last year when they were adding some mid-level NHL talent so that the young prospects would at least be surrounded by more NHL players. The most significant thing is that additions to the blueline. While it lacks a top defenseman, at least there are NHL players, which is more than last year’s team had.
They aren’t as “hot” as Anaheim because there’s a perception the young talent is further away, and that is probably correct. But it is a very talented group, and if the goaltending is decent, I could see them being last year’s Anaheim – better than you thought for a bit, enough to see the potential, but not enough to really make a serious battle for a playoff spot. But there will be more to do next year. After this season, only Orlov is signed among the D they brought it (including Liljegren and Desharnais last year), and they don’t have enough internal options, IMO. Mukhamadullin has got every physical attribute you’d want, but his NHL exposure last year wasn’t successful and he’s already 23. Dickinson has excellent potential – I sort of wonder whether San Jose will designate him as their AHL player this season (and keep Misa with the big club). At any rate, it’s a bright future, but the future isn’t now.
Expected points (65-75).
Vegas: (1st Place, 110 points). Added Marner, Sissons, Lauzon; Lost Pietrangelo*, Hague, Pearson, Roy.
Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you have to admire that the Golden Knights are never satisfied with being good and are always scheming to improve. They got the only free agent in the class (that didn’t re-sign) worth chasing, and while those they lost provided some quality, they were role players except Pietrangelo, and Pietrangelo is not who he was. More important that who you lose is what is left, and that’s a team that’s skilled AND fairly tough AND deep in all positions. Goaltending might be the weakness, but that’s relative. Hill is at least a league average starter and has won a Cup. And while the Knights are despised for their players’ preternatural ability to marry their injuries with team cap needs, the fact they have so many good players on good contracts is a testament to being smarter than the typical front office. And then there’s windfall value from guys like Dorofeyev.
The risk here is age and injury. But they should repeat as division champs and quite possibly compete for the President's Trophy (110-120 points), and if Marner can finally show in the playoffs, Vegas has to be considered a main challenger to Florida.
LA: (2d place, 105 points). Added: Armia (LOL!), Ceci (LOL!), Dumoulin (chuckle), Anton Forsberg, Perry; Lost: Gavrikov, Jeannot, Rittich, Spence
Welcome back to the western conference, Ken Holland. On the plus side for the Kings, they retained Kuzmenko, who hopefully isn’t porking up, and if they have the Corey Perry card, which is like drawing the ice cream float card right off the bat in Candyland. The downside is that exchanging Gavrikov and Spence for Ceci and Dumolin is sure to send them back to the gooey gumdrops.
There’s a lot of age in this group, but to be fair, there are also young players that can improve and take over a lot of productivity that is being provided by guys on the wrong side of 30, no, wait 35. Byfield, Clarke, Laferriere. And Kempe is an underrated star.
Thing is, even with the age, all the Kings needed to be a solid favorite to finish in the top 3 was to not make moves that made them worse. And then they did just that – made moves that made them worse. I’m not writing them off, but they aren’t playoff locks anymore. If Doughty continues to decline and Clarke still has much to learn, the solid-but-unspectacular Mikey Anderson is their best defenseman. That’s not good, especially if Kuemper regresses to the mean.
I think 92-102 points is where they will be.
Edmonton (3rd Place, 101 points). Added: Lazar, Mangiapane, Howard; Lost: Arvidsson, Brown, Klingberg, Skinner, Kane, Perry.
Raises to Draisatl and Bouchard meant all the Oilers could do this offseason was cap manage. When you’re biggest move is re-signing Frederic…. To be sure, they moved the right guys out given their expected value/contracts, but there is no way they’ve improved. They’ve lost depth and toughness, and most importantly, they haven’t addressed the goaltending. Mangiapane – wasn’t he demoted in Washington because Beau2 outplayed him? I don’t hate the player, but Mangiapane’s 35 goal season in Calgary a few years back is a mirage; he’s never had 20 goals other than that year and he really is best viewed as a middle six guy who can PK and forecheck.
Absent injuries to their core, they should still be a lock for the playoffs. Draisaitl and McDavid are that good and can play a lot to offset some of the depth issues. And the Pacific Division is that mediocre. But this team is far more fragile than last year. They may not be able to afford further slides in key core complements RNH and Hyman because I don’t see where else the production can come from. They might even need Evan Bouchard to become good at defense, too, with Ekholm aging and Nurse settled into mediocre middle pairing status.
I think they'll coast through the season, applying gas when needed and end up around 100 points. But I don't expect another playoff run.
Flames (4th place, 96 points). Added no one. Lost no one, aka Vladar.
On paper, I can’t figure out how this team got 96 points last season. Kadri played out of his mind, Huberdeau found a time machine (though really isn’t that old), and Coronato emerged as a nice young contributor. Weegar and Andersson provide skill and stability, and Bahl provide himself to be a worthwhile part of the Markstrom trade. Still, this looks like a team 80-85 point team to me, and overperformance more than youth coming of age drove that point total too much for my liking.
The Flames have been very quiet this offseason, which I think is completely prudent. I don’t know if its because they believe in the plan they have in place or because they don’t believe it – that they didn’t want to add this group because they weren’t sure. In the best case scenario, Wolf can improve further in get into the “one of the best goalies in the league” discussion, Bahl can become that reliable long reach stay at home every team is looking for, Andersson will play well and yield them a good trade haul, Coronato will become a true first liner, Farabee will show offensive skills and deliver on the promises of his early NHL career (he’s still young), and Frost will be a swiss army knife competent in all things player. But do I think this will happen? No. But Calgary’s management is in “hockey position,” ready to react to the play from a place of balance and stability. That’s sort of a win, though it might not be given last year’s success. Which they won’t duplicate IMO.
Expected points: 80-90.
Vancouver (5th place, 90 points). Added Kane; Lost Suter, Juulsen, Joshua.
There’s a lot from me on this board, so I’ll keep it short. If 96 points was the Flames at their ceiling, 90 points should be the floor for the Canucks, because they got that getting numerous pumpkin performances, battling injury, and lack of team cohesion. All of their important moves happened mid-season last year. With health, the team has the potential to be among the hardest to score against, and has enough bounce back candidates for some optimism the offense will improve. They are the most likely team in the Pacific to take LA’s spot. If they play boring and disciplined hockey and have good enough special teams, they should be a bubble team all year. The biggest risk factor beyond last year’s pumpkins rotting further and injury? A new coach, and the risk he’s not ready.
Expected points: 90-100.
Anaheim (6th place, 80 points). Added: Granlund, Husso, Kreider, Mrazek, Poehling; Lost: Gibson, Zegras.
The Ducks are an “it” team at the moment, but it still is a team of “mights” and “potential.” With the new additions, they have enough offense such that Carlsson, Gauthier, and McTavish don’t have to reach maximum velocity, but while all of the attention is on these grade A young forwards, it really is the defense that is holding the Ducks back. Here, too, there’s considerable potential: Mintykokov, Zellweger, LaCombe. But I don’t think its close enough to prime to be anything other than a relative liability. (It doesn’t help that Trouba and Gudas are pylons at this points). If I were Verbeek, I would have much rather looked for a Kreider equivalent on D (I guess maybe that’s what Trouba was?). The big regret should be moving Fowler. Wait, they had what they need: Cam Fowler. Well, they still have 40% or so of his salary…. Well at least they got a big return for Zegras. What’s that? They didn’t?
Still, I don’t think they are drawing to the inside straight. Its more like drawing to an outside straight. Maybe even with a flush option, too, given Coach Q. I don’t expect them to be there this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were. Still, I think they're more likely a 90 point team than a playoff team. Expected points (85-95).
Seattle (7th place, 76 points). Added: Gaudreau, Lindgren, Marchment; Lost: Burokovsky, Eyssimont.
To me, Seattle behaves like the Benning-era Canucks. When there’s a little room for premature optimism, they grab players in free agency for too steep a price that are not likely to provide that value but should make the team meaninglessly better. Stephenson and Montour a season ago (with no movement or no trade clauses!); this season it is Lindgren, who never gets that contract in a world with a deeper group of free agents, and Marchment – who, while on a decent contract for what he is, will not move the needle. And so there’s a constant cycle of contracts that you’d prefer not to have. The team isn’t bad, but it can’t be optimized.
Time will tell whether Kakko is a Baerstchi-level reclamation project or something better, but there is a story to tell here involving the somewhat disappointing Beniers, Kakko, Wright, Niemo, maybe even Catton where this team surprises in a good way. Unlike the Benning-era Canucks, it’s a good prospect system (but probably could be better), and they have a lot of draft capital. But its also a terribly imbalanced system – they are immune to drafting defense in the first round (Ryker Evans, though, appears to have been a good pick).
While there’s a story for success here, I think they should have planned for failure – not added players to get them a few marginal and meaningless points.
Expected Points (72-82).
San Jose. (8th place, 52 points). Added: Gaudette, Orlov, Klingberg, Kurashev, Misa, Nedeljkovic, Leddy; Lost: Vlasic
San Jose’s offseason strategy sort of looked Chicago’s last year when they were adding some mid-level NHL talent so that the young prospects would at least be surrounded by more NHL players. The most significant thing is that additions to the blueline. While it lacks a top defenseman, at least there are NHL players, which is more than last year’s team had.
They aren’t as “hot” as Anaheim because there’s a perception the young talent is further away, and that is probably correct. But it is a very talented group, and if the goaltending is decent, I could see them being last year’s Anaheim – better than you thought for a bit, enough to see the potential, but not enough to really make a serious battle for a playoff spot. But there will be more to do next year. After this season, only Orlov is signed among the D they brought it (including Liljegren and Desharnais last year), and they don’t have enough internal options, IMO. Mukhamadullin has got every physical attribute you’d want, but his NHL exposure last year wasn’t successful and he’s already 23. Dickinson has excellent potential – I sort of wonder whether San Jose will designate him as their AHL player this season (and keep Misa with the big club). At any rate, it’s a bright future, but the future isn’t now.
Expected points (65-75).
