US Erection 12 *AND* 16 *AND* 20 *AND* 22 *AND* 24 *AND* Beyond

[Megaterio Llamas]

Just a rumor, but hopeful.

RREAKING: A major step in establishing a peace agreement has been brokered between Russia and Ukraine by the United States.

Zelensky is traveling to the United States on Friday to formalize the deal negotiated with President Trump. While some specifics remain unresolved, here’s the latest confirmed development:

— The U.S. will receive half of Ukraine’s future mineral revenue as compensation for American taxpayer funds allocated to the conflict.

What we can expect in the upcoming peace deal:

— Ukraine will not join NATO, a long-standing non-negotiable for Russia and a key trigger of the war.

— No foreign troops will be stationed in Ukraine. Zelensky’s attempt to secure NATO involvement through U.S. or European forces has been rejected in favor of establishing a demilitarized zone.

— Ukraine will cede territory and give up any ambitions for Crimea. Regaining all lost land was never a realistic prospect, much like NATO membership.

— Russia’s concessions, if any, have not been disclosed yet. Expect more claims of Russian influence, though Ukraine’s odds against Russia were always nonexistent.

This is all subject to change, but it’s what’s likely going to happen.

https://x.com/stillgray/status/1894497979127791921

[UWSaint]

Zelensky is flying to Washington today to sign the minerals deal.

And the EU is offering its own deal. https://www.politico.eu/article/critica ... ald-trump/

And Putin is exploring rare earth metal exploration deals with the US too. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-s ... ne-2036146

A few months ago, Senator Lindsey Graham (a hawk, and one of the strongest supporters of US aid), was pretty transparent about the rare earth materials prize. While the mask came off, its not exactly a secret that Ukraine was going to "pay" for aid with deals like this as well as international ag co's control of Ukrainian land. Its why with all the talk of "sovereignty" (by a Europe that lambasted the UK for asserting its own) and "democracy" (for a country that has cancelled its elections), there was always a background whiff of some old school colonialism. Which is meant descriptively, not judgmentally. Fact it, nothing is free. If you can't defend yourself, you will pay for your defense.

Ukraine's deputy prime minister is quotes as saying, "The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it's part of a bigger picture." I wonder what that bigger picture is exactly. But here's what I tentatively suspect:

* the terms of peace between Ukraine and Russia are already well on their way to being worked out,
* this minerals deal is part of that agreement,
* the US knows exactly what Zelenskyy will agree to, and they are negotiating with Russia as--not exactly as his proxy, but as a mediator who knows what Zelenskyy will settle at and with Zelenskyy's okay,
* Until the deal's done, Zelenskyy is being given license to say "nobody's including us!" even though he's well aware of how this is getting negotiated; he will continue to play the defiant leader even as he is now resigned to negotiated peace (I am not saying Zelenskyy was inauthentically defiant -- what he's done took a ton of courage and is quite admirable -- but I am saying that he's ready for it to be over),
* Trump and Putin have disarmed from one another -- no criticism of the other country's leaders as part of the normalization process -- but behind closed doors, each expresses lines -- and each guesses whether those lines are real,
* The entire EU might not be read in, but some leaders are,
* Part of what we've seen in the past month vis a vis the theater of the US negotiating unilaterally and questioning whether there are commonalities that we are fighting for is pressure to get Europe to increase its defense spending and capabilities. NATO leadership is completely on board with this outcome even if they are not read in on the negotiations -- and the unease of the future of the transatlantic alliance has created a new level of political will to spend more on defense.
* The other part, though, is real -- the United States (through the Trump Administration) is honestly concerned about Europe's direction.

[Cornuck]

Seems the likely outcome: Ukraine gets bent over. Russia will get a slap on the wrist. trump will welcome putin/russia like nothing happened. putin will plan/enact his next incursion.

American/Euro companies will profit from building shit back up, Ukraine will be needing funds, but at least 1/2 of their mineral rights are gone. Hopefully their grain sales can help rebuild, but something tells me, it will be struggling for the next 10-20 years thanks to putin's war.

On the plus side, young people will stop dying because of this (hopefully).

[UWSaint]

Seems the likely outcome: Ukraine gets bent over. Russia will get a slap on the wrist. trump will welcome putin/russia like nothing happened. putin will plan/enact his next incursion.

American/Euro companies will profit from building shit back up, Ukraine will be needing funds, but at least 1/2 of their mineral rights are gone. Hopefully their grain sales can help rebuild, but something tells me, it will be struggling for the next 10-20 years thanks to putin's war.

On the plus side, young people will stop dying because of this (hopefully).

While we disagree on much, I pretty much agree with this, though I think I would say "Ukraine IS bent over," that Russia/Putin is aware that "like nothing happened" isn't something they can rely on, and that this will factor into whether the plan for the next incursion will manifest (as will Russian economic stabilization).

I'm a little less optimistic about grain sales, only insofar as I highly suspect that, like the minerals, will have foreign investment siphoning off much of the profit. But I think that while American and European companies will be taking a cut of the raw material exploitation, I believe that it is going to help Ukraine significantly because those resources would not be exploited otherwise and certainly not to that magnitude. Wealth is about to be created, and there will be plenty to go around, and remember that there's been 3 years of destruction. International conglomerates are also about to profit from the rebuilding of Ukraine.

The cynic in me thinks this is always part of the calculus when funding endless wars. There are too many stakeholders getting rich on people blowing up other people and infrastructure. To me, it isn't the peace that brings this "opportunity" about, it is the war.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Zelensky is flying to Washington today to sign the minerals deal.

And the EU is offering its own deal. https://www.politico.eu/article/critica ... ald-trump/

And Putin is exploring rare earth metal exploration deals with the US too. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-s ... ne-2036146

A few months ago, Senator Lindsey Graham (a hawk, and one of the strongest supporters of US aid), was pretty transparent about the rare earth materials prize. While the mask came off, its not exactly a secret that Ukraine was going to "pay" for aid with deals like this as well as international ag co's control of Ukrainian land. Its why with all the talk of "sovereignty" (by a Europe that lambasted the UK for asserting its own) and "democracy" (for a country that has cancelled its elections), there was always a background whiff of some old school colonialism. Which is meant descriptively, not judgmentally. Fact it, nothing is free. If you can't defend yourself, you will pay for your defense.

Ukraine's deputy prime minister is quotes as saying, "The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it's part of a bigger picture." I wonder what that bigger picture is exactly. But here's what I tentatively suspect:

* the terms of peace between Ukraine and Russia are already well on their way to being worked out,
* this minerals deal is part of that agreement,
* the US knows exactly what Zelenskyy will agree to, and they are negotiating with Russia as--not exactly as his proxy, but as a mediator who knows what Zelenskyy will settle at and with Zelenskyy's okay,
* Until the deal's done, Zelenskyy is being given license to say "nobody's including us!" even though he's well aware of how this is getting negotiated; he will continue to play the defiant leader even as he is now resigned to negotiated peace (I am not saying Zelenskyy was inauthentically defiant -- what he's done took a ton of courage and is quite admirable -- but I am saying that he's ready for it to be over),
* Trump and Putin have disarmed from one another -- no criticism of the other country's leaders as part of the normalization process -- but behind closed doors, each expresses lines -- and each guesses whether those lines are real,
* The entire EU might not be read in, but some leaders are,
* Part of what we've seen in the past month vis a vis the theater of the US negotiating unilaterally and questioning whether there are commonalities that we are fighting for is pressure to get Europe to increase its defense spending and capabilities. NATO leadership is completely on board with this outcome even if they are not read in on the negotiations -- and the unease of the future of the transatlantic alliance has created a new level of political will to spend more on defense.
* The other part, though, is real -- the United States (through the Trump Administration) is honestly concerned about Europe's direction.

Intersesting update UW. Thanks. One thing I would add to that is that the much ballyhooed Ukraine mineral wealth , rare earths and all, is maybe not what it is made out to be by Zelensky and the Ukrainians. And yeah, Lindsey Graham's ears really perked up when he was talking with Zellensky about this a few months ago lol.

I also am pretty sure that any deal will include an amnesty for Zelensky and a few key allies and safe harbor in some Western country This could be the US, Britain, France, or several other locations where he owns property. He's been binge spending on properties for some time now. The Banderite fascist element in Ukraine will not accept any deal proposed and will come after anyone who agrees to and signs onto any peace agreement that includes concessions. I am sure of this. The Banderites will make life miserable for the Ukrainians post war until they are rooted out. But all in all, this is very encouraging.

[Megaterio Llamas]

* prediction - people in the West will be shocked and horrified when the true casualty figures for this horrendous bloodbath finally come out.

[Megaterio Llamas]

lol - I said yersterday that it looked like Trudeau was shovelling that 5 million out the door quick before the war ended.

Boy did I call it or what eh

[Cornuck]

* prediction - people in the West will be shocked and horrified when the true casualty figures for this horrendous bloodbath finally come out.

... and then keep scrolling...

While we disagree on much, I pretty much agree with this

[Megaterio Llamas]

* prediction - people in the West will be shocked and horrified when the true casualty figures for this horrendous bloodbath finally come out.

... and then keep scrolling...

While we disagree on much, I pretty much agree with this

[Megaterio Llamas]

https://x.com/AFpost/status/1894509775637156230

[Megaterio Llamas]

https://x.com/GuntherEagleman/status/18 ... 1171936360

[5thhorseman]

$5,000,000

How much is that in $TRUMP?

[5thhorseman]

Thankfully the EU confiscated way more Russian assets than the US. You know Trump's going to return those assets as soon as Putin gives the word.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Thankfully the EU confiscated way more Russian assets than the US. You know Trump's going to return those assets as soon as Putin gives the word.

I think Putin is sittting on a similar or greater amount of EU assets than the EU is Russian assets.

[5thhorseman]

Thankfully the EU confiscated way more Russian assets than the US. You know Trump's going to return those assets as soon as Putin gives the word.

I think Putin is sittting on a similar or greater amount of EU assets than the EU is Russian assets.

Yeah, I think those are already written off on company balance sheets. Do you think Trump will negotiate those back or give Putin's assets first?