Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:44 pm
by Strangelove
Also, in America, CDC is instructing physicians to exaggerate COVID-19 deaths on death certificates.
You can google it and you can listen to Dr Annie in Montana explain how this is clearly happening...
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:04 pm
by Per
The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:25 am
How laissez-faire of them...
Notice how Per always defends the party line? Per, as a raging lefty, shouldn't you be more inclined to support the 2300+ academics who penned that open letter to Lofgren & Co.?
Curious case of stockholm syndrome!
1) The party line? Which party? I don’t belong to any party, and in the three most recent parliamentary elections I have voted for three different parties...
2) I’m more of a raging centrist. I have never voted for either of the two socialist parties in Sweden.
3) Why the hell did they pen a letter to Lofgren?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:00 pm
by Strangelove
No mask! Two blocks from the Liberty Bell.
Although I hear they will soon be issuing Immunity Tickets for COVID survivors.
Those folks won't have to wear a mask, but must produce a Ticket. Or...
Oh well, at least this brave new world ain't boring.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:53 pm
by Topper
What if we have flattened the curve too far and have amplified the long term economic effects as a result?
The goal of flattening the curve is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. We, in BC, have done that in spades. There are over 4,000 empty hospital beds, additionally, nearly 700 ICU beds sitting empty. Hospitalizations have been in the 130-140 ranges for over a week. ICU patients make up half that number.
When presented "Flatten the Curve" models, the confined areas of the two curves was equal, only the amplitude and wave length varied.
By reducing the amplitude as much as we have in BC, have we extended the wavelength beyond economic recovery?
Should measures be relaxed in order to raise the amplitude and how do we control the throttle if we do so?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:19 pm
by Cornuck
Topper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:53 pm
Should measures be relaxed in order to raise the amplitude and how do we control the throttle if we do so?
And THAT is the million (trillion?) dollar question. I'm guessing that a lot of people in charge around the world would rather run with the measures in place and fail on the side of less people dying than get things 'back to normal' too early and cause more deaths that could be directly related to their decision. Tough Call. It will likely be made by a doctor when the time comes so the politicians can say, "Hey, what did I know? You'll still vote for me, right?"
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Topper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:53 pm
Should measures be relaxed in order to raise the amplitude and how do we control the throttle if we do so?
And THAT is the million (trillion?) dollar question. I'm guessing that a lot of people in charge around the world would rather run with the measures in place and fail on the side of less people dying than get things 'back to normal' too early and cause more deaths that could be directly related to their decision. Tough Call. It will likely be made by a doctor when the time comes so the politicians can say, "Hey, what did I know? You'll still vote for me, right?"
The questions were largely rhetorical, just things to think about, I doubt anyone has the answers and the outbreaks vary widely between jurisdictions, so any thoughts can only be applied locally.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:58 pm
by Strangelove
Interesting questions indeed Mr Topper.
I've got one.
How long until some schmuck with a cough and Alberta plates rolls into a Hicksville, BC gas station
... and gets the living snot beat outta him?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
How long until some schmuck with a cough and Alberta plates rolls into a Hicksville, BC gas station
... and gets the living snot beat outta him?
Ahhh fuck me. I wouldn't want to stop in a small town in this area and have a Wild Rose plate on the back of my truck. The assholes calling for the border to be closed forget that we are Canadians first, British Columbians second.
Respect your neighbour, whether it be down the street, the next town, the next province, or across the country. Don't overload the limited services they have, but in turn, don't make assumptions about those who are travelling. Look at the noise over ferry traffic today. The sailing have been cut back and the boats running 50% capacity. Of coarse there are lineups.
It is social distancing, not a locked down quarantine.
The rednecks are the easy going ones through this, the fine upstanding citizenry have descended into jack booted nazis calling for martial law.
"Just watch me"
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:18 am
by Per
Topper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:53 pm
What if we have flattened the curve too far and have amplified the long term economic effects as a result?
The goal of flattening the curve is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. We, in BC, have done that in spades. There are over 4,000 empty hospital beds, additionally, nearly 700 ICU beds sitting empty. Hospitalizations have been in the 130-140 ranges for over a week. ICU patients make up half that number.
When presented "Flatten the Curve" models, the confined areas of the two curves was equal, only the amplitude and wave length varied.
By reducing the amplitude as much as we have in BC, have we extended the wavelength beyond economic recovery?
Should measures be relaxed in order to raise the amplitude and how do we control the throttle if we do so?
Exactly. As Cornuck said, this is the million dollar question.
The virus is here, it’s not going to go away. The only way to get rid of it is through herd immunity, whether through vaccination or through the majority of the population having had the disease and recovered. And a vaccine is at least a year away. We won’t be able to shut everything for that long a period without causing severe damage to the economy.
The Harvard study I linked to earler suggested that theoretically the ideal is to slow down the transmission rate somewhere between 20 and 40 percent to flatten the curve sufficiently for the hospitals to be able to cope, but reducing the transmission rate by more than 60 percent will only prolong the inevitable, and at a huge cost.
The recession caused by this pandemic will lead to an increase in poverty, and we know that poverty is a huge health risk. Thus if we take too drastic measures in trying to curb the pandemic, we may end up causing more deaths in the long term.
It is all very compex and no one has the answers as we haven’t seen anything like this since the Spanish flu, and the world was very different back then.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:55 am
by Megaterio Llamas
Texas A&M pandemic expert: Coronavirus will have 5 stages. We’re in stage 2.
How long until some schmuck with a cough and Alberta plates rolls into a Hicksville, BC gas station
... and gets the living snot beat outta him?
I've seen a number of vehicles with BC plates here in Alberta recently. None have been shot at so far (at least not that I know of).
I've got a dugout on my property that would swallow a Prius whole...
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:05 pm
by Per
Strangelove wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:44 pm
Also, in America, CDC is instructing physicians to exaggerate COVID-19 deaths on death certificates.
You can google it and you can listen to Dr Annie in Montana explain how this is clearly happening...
Globally, the problem would be the opposite. Deaths in Bergamo, Italy were four times higher for a three week period in March compared to the same three weeks last year, yet only 25% of deaths were attributed to Covid-19. Instead there was a spike in pneumonia related deaths.
Now, I get it; in order too know it was Covid-19 you have to run a test, and laboratories are swamped. Pneumonia? Sure, the symptoms are all there. Problem is that most Covid-19 deaths are through pneumonia.
Likewise, in Spain people who have died at home or in nursing homes are rarely attributed to Covid-19. Almost exclusively patients that had tested positive for it and were committed to a hospital get this in their death certificate, so covid-19 death toll in both Italy and Spain is probably much higher than what is reported.
Most likely the same applies elsewhere, including in the USA.
