Interesting paper on herd immunity levels, which are suggested to be 60-80% in the case of a vaccination program.
In idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, HITs are given by a simple formula (1 − 1⁄R0) which, in the case of SARS-CoV-2, suggests that 60-80% of randomly chosen subjects of the population would need be immunized to halt spread considering estimates of R0 between 2.5 and 5.
More interesting, in the case of immunity via infection, the herd immunity level is lower, at 10-20%, as more susceptible individuals are infected first.
This formula does not apply to infection-induced immunity because natural infection does not occur at random. Individuals who are more susceptible or more exposed are more prone to be infected and become immune, providing greater community protection than random vaccination . In our model, the HIT declines sharply when coefficients of variation increase from 0 to 2 and remains below 20% for more variable populations.
This article suggests that some people have a pre-existing level of immunity to covid:
But scientists have also recently discovered that some people can test negative for antibodies against Covid-19 and positive for T cells that can identify the virus. This has led to suspicions that some level of immunity against the disease might be twice as common as was previously thought.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:48 pm
by Mickey107
NEWS 1130
@NEWS1130
BREAKING NEWS: B.C. students to return to school full-time in September https://bit.ly/3f8Nt7R
12:33 PM · Jul 29, 2020
--To minimize contact, students will be assigned to groups up to 60 for younger grades and 120 for high school. Some middle and high schools students will see some adjustments to schedules.
--The provincial government released the plan for the next phase of its education restart plan on Wednesday. It includes $45.6 million to support school districts and independent schools, including $23 million for more staff and cleaning schools. Of that, $2.2 million will be spent to ensure reuseable face masks are available to staff if they choose to wear one, says the province.
Almost half of parents in province undecided about sending kids back to class, poll shows
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:09 pm
by Topper
Looking forward to the return to school and the kid is stoked about it.
Hopefully chem lab projects will include synthesizing Hydroxychloroquine
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:22 pm
by Mickey107
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:36 pm
by 5thhorseman
It's a bit of a farce isn't it. It won't be much different here. They're just trying to limit the contact tracing needed if there is an outbreak.
We are keeping the kids at home this fall if they give us the option. They're learning a lot more with homeschooling anyways.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:09 pm
by Per
OK... so Trump held a not so well attended rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, but still, on June 20th.
Some try to link the recent increase in covid cases and deaths in that state to that rally, but Trump in an interview with Axios says that the increase in cases did not really occur until two months after the rally.
So......
1) Is Trump a time traveller?
2) Is he trying to warn us that things will get much worse in Oklahoma towards the end of August?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:19 am
by Mickey107
Walmart Canada making masks mandatory in all stores starting Aug. 12
Walmart Canada has announced it is making masks or face coverings mandatory in all stores starting Aug. 12.
In a statement, the company said this will apply in every store, regardless of whether there is a local government mandate in place.
The company says Health Canada has identified that when worn properly, a person wearing a mask or face covering can help reduce the spread of respiratory droplets.
Expect other to follow. Not to put too big a point on it, but how successful will enforcement be? Video cameras getting facial recs
and people getting fines to there E-mail or in the mail?
smaller people visiting on worker programs running around with sticks?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:22 am
by Cousin Strawberry
Micky wrote: ↑Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:19 am
smaller people visiting on worker programs running around with sticks?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:58 pm
by Mickey107
Sonia Aslam@SoniaSAslam
Bad news on the #COVID19 front in BC. For the first time in months, 85 new cases have been recorded in a 24-hour period. One additional death. Recovery rate declining, now at about 83 per cent. Details on @NEWS1130
.https://twitter.com/SoniaSAslam/status/ ... 3599217667
3:44 PM · Aug 12, 2020
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Sonia Aslam@SoniaSAslam
Bad news on the #COVID19 front in BC. For the first time in months, 85 new cases have been recorded in a 24-hour period. One additional death. Recovery rate declining, now at about 83 per cent. Details on @NEWS1130
.https://twitter.com/SoniaSAslam/status/ ... 3599217667
3:44 PM · Aug 12, 2020
What does that mean exactly? Recovery rate 83% does that mean 17% death rate
4000 cases 200 dead is .05%
And also 80+% are in the old age category just like triny López complications from covid due to old age
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:58 pm
by Cousin Strawberry
It means they want your AR and to beat you when you dont wear a mask...just like In Saudi
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:59 pm
by rats19
The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:58 pm
It means they want your AR and to beat you when you dont wear a mask...just like In Saudi