Canucks News N Notes 25-26

[Nuckertuzzi]

There are a few other dirt cheap guys who could provide surplus value. I’m eyeing Karlsson as a dark horse. He’s too slow for a top six role, but middle six may be within reach. Or worst case 4th line, power play specialist (speed isn’t as essential on the PP)? I love his hands down low and in tight around the net. Would give him a shot on the 2nd unit for sure.

Also can't forget Raty. He probably has the inside track over Karlsson, but LK has me intrigued not just from his amazing playoffs but also from the short stint he had up here late last season when he was easily one of the more impressive forwards.

[Nuckertuzzi]

Willander can steal a job if he comes as advertised. College standouts have made the jump before and he seems like he might be a gem

Loved what I saw at both WJCs. Not a standout offensively but a very reliable, no-nonsense defender with a great first pass and big wheels. I can see him earning a spot stepping in to start and his play will dictate whether he stays or needs time in Abby. Question is who steps out.

[Todd Bersnoozi]

I have a soft spot for Silovs.

But the potential and that tournament winning ability in Silovs would really be a bummer to let go.

I always liked King Arthurs as well. If it were my call, I would have moved Demmer out to make room for Silovs, get an asset back and free up cap space. It looks like he's pretty much a goner now, but I think he's the youngest, cheapest and has most potential.

[Picker of Cherries]

Based on their play in the AHL playoffs, I’m much more interested in Mueller getting a look than Lekkerimaki. Lekkerimaki has more offensive upside, but Mueller looks far more ready and plays a more vital position for this club. If they are going with one top line centre and three third line centres, he could earn a look at that role. Lekkerimaki needs to cook a bit longer.

[Nuckertuzzi]

Based on their play in the AHL playoffs, I’m much more interested in Mueller getting a look than Lekkerimaki. Lekkerimaki has more offensive upside, but Mueller looks far more ready and plays a more vital position for this club. If they are going with one top line centre and three third line centres, he could earn a look at that role. Lekkerimaki needs to cook a bit longer.

In a perfect world we can keep both guys down there for as long as need be and be as patient as necessary. The old Detroit model. This team doesn't have the luxury and need people to step up asap. So they'll give everybody equal opportunity shots to make the big club. Ideally Lekk is a break glass in case of emergency solution, preferably later in the season. I too want to see him marinate as long as possible with Abby.

Mueller would have to beat out Raty and the only way I could see him up is if there are multiple injuries at centre. It's possible we'll see some spot duty like the couple games last year.

[UWSaint]

Before the Dickinson cheap shot I thought Chytil was playing eye-poppingly well. The post cheap shot version was pretty consistent with how he looked in Ragland. If he is indeed completely healthy then hes an even bigger x-factor for van than Pettersson learning to walk again.

Lekkerimaki looks years out. We should quell any further unrealistic expectations on that one.

Willander can steal a job if he comes as advertised. College standouts have made the jump before and he seems like he might be a gem

Lekkerimaki had a very good AHL rookie season, but he showed at the NHL level and AHL level in the playoff atmosphere that he struggles in tighter circumstances against better players. I remember videos of snipes in Sweden and comments (on this board, I think) noting "but he'll never get that space in North America". And I think those comments were right. Its possible that just weight on the frame will take care of it (that's gradual progession), but it is also possible that this issue is solved by learning how to navigate smaller and more quickly collapsing spaces. You don't have to be big to do that -- see Garland or Kuzmenko -- but it takes a skill that Sushi never needed on the big ice (and thus had no need to develop) until now. It may come all once like a light being flicked on, or it might not ever come (and he then can only take the next step through gradual physical development and leaning how to play with that).

To me, Sushi has a high ceiling, but there's also considerable bust potential -- a guy that could Reid Boucher the AHL yet will never progress in the NHL. He maintains the ceiling because you can see the NHL level shot and vision, and he succeeded in his first challenge (the AHL regular season). I think Markus Naslund is the best comparable for the ceiling. He wasn't better than Sushi at this age -- he played in the NHL, but to no effect. A 16th overall pick, at 20 he was an inneffective not-too-big winger, and one with a similar skill set to Sushi. He was inneffective at 21. At 22, he showed a bit more potential, but the Pens decided it better to capitalize on those flashes through a trade for toughness then see if he would ever really get to the next level. Naslund started in Vancouver and played well enough, but was still enigmatic for the first couple of years. He wouldn't break out to the next level of play until Age 25, when he showed more consistency and showed the ability to convert opportunities into goals. By his late 20s, counterintuitively (for his skill set) when the league might have been as its tightest, he was an elite scorer and excellent playmaker.

Lots of Markus Naslunds, though, never got to that second level (much less the third).

[rikster]

Before the Dickinson cheap shot I thought Chytil was playing eye-poppingly well. The post cheap shot version was pretty consistent with how he looked in Ragland. If he is indeed completely healthy then hes an even bigger x-factor for van than Pettersson learning to walk again.

Lekkerimaki looks years out. We should quell any further unrealistic expectations on that one.

Willander can steal a job if he comes as advertised. College standouts have made the jump before and he seems like he might be a gem

Lekkerimaki had a very good AHL rookie season, but he showed at the NHL level and AHL level in the playoff atmosphere that he struggles in tighter circumstances against better players. I remember videos of snipes in Sweden and comments (on this board, I think) noting "but he'll never get that space in North America". And I think those comments were right. Its possible that just weight on the frame will take care of it (that's gradual progession), but it is also possible that this issue is solved by learning how to navigate smaller and more quickly collapsing spaces. You don't have to be big to do that -- see Garland or Kuzmenko -- but it takes a skill that Sushi never needed on the big ice (and thus had no need to develop) until now. It may come all once like a light being flicked on, or it might not ever come (and he then can only take the next step through gradual physical development and leaning how to play with that).

To me, Sushi has a high ceiling, but there's also considerable bust potential -- a guy that could Reid Boucher the AHL yet will never progress in the NHL. He maintains the ceiling because you can see the NHL level shot and vision, and he succeeded in his first challenge (the AHL regular season). I think Markus Naslund is the best comparable for the ceiling. He wasn't better than Sushi at this age -- he played in the NHL, but to no effect. A 16th overall pick, at 20 he was an inneffective not-too-big winger, and one with a similar skill set to Sushi. He was inneffective at 21. At 22, he showed a bit more potential, but the Pens decided it better to capitalize on those flashes through a trade for toughness then see if he would ever really get to the next level. Naslund started in Vancouver and played well enough, but was still enigmatic for the first couple of years. He wouldn't break out to the next level of play until Age 25, when he showed more consistency and showed the ability to convert opportunities into goals. By his late 20s, counterintuitively (for his skill set) when the league might have been as its tightest, he was an elite scorer and excellent playmaker.

Lots of Markus Naslunds, though, never got to that second level (much less the third).

Lekkerimaki is a much better skater than Boucher was so don't get the comparison...

When you consider Lekkerimaki's age, it being his first full season in North America, a recent history of mono, surgery for a foot injury, facial injury and then you look at his production at both the NHL and AHL level you have to be very upbeat about his future...

The kid is 20 and has just 66 games on North American rinks so suggesting that he has a high bust probability is silly...

Take care...

[UWSaint]

Lekkerimaki is a much better skater than Boucher was so don't get the comparison...

When you consider Lekkerimaki's age, it being his first full season in North America, a recent history of mono, surgery for a foot injury, facial injury and then you look at his production at both the NHL and AHL level you have to be very upbeat about his future...

The kid is 20 and has just 66 games on North American rinks so suggesting that he has a high bust probability is silly...

Take care...

I said "Reid Boucher the AHL," which means to dominate the league with a skill set (and negative attributes) that doesn't work in the NHL. Lekkerimaki's skillset is different, but his negative attributes are also the kind of thing that converts to no meaningful NHL success if he can't work through them.

A common mistake is thinking that there is some linear relationship between what works in the AHL and what works in the NHL. That's not right. Players can be great in the AHL and poor in the NHL, players can be good in the AHL and then good in the NHL, and it isn't just a function of uneven development. E.g., in the AHL, every night a scorer is being matched up against a defensive pair that isn't good enough to be the third NHL pair that the coach is trying to avoid matching against the skilled guys. If it is taking advantage of common deficits in those players' games that leads to the production, then it shouldn't be a surprise when where's nothing to so easily take advantage of, NHL production isn't just going to be less like a linear formula.

Sushi's weakness, to me, is navigating stronger and more quickly collapsing spaces, in part because he doesn't (yet) have good physical puck protection skills, and in part because he is relatively easily knocked off his preferred path. He neither has the requisite strength nor leverages the strength that he has efficiently. He does skate with some deception (which is good), but until he manages the strength/space issue, he is going to struggle to be in a position to regularly deploy his weapons.

There are a set of players who have low bust potential because their attributes provide a floor so that if plan A fails (say, scoring line forward), they can deploy plan B (say, dog-on-a-bone forechecking pest, or 200 foot guy). Its easy to see how a good skating power forward type with the hope of top 6 NHL play can go to a plan B if the hands or o-zone IQ was deficient for top 6 success. On the other hand, if Lekkeramaki can't play a top 6 half court game in the NHL because of his current deficits, its hard to see plan B. Just having speed and a counterattacking rush attribute isn't enough in itself -- you need to combine that with strong forechecking or strong defensive play.

Looking at it from a different direction, when your top attributes are your hands and vision and shot, the attributes that allow you to deploy those weapons often overlap with the attributes that if you didn't have those weapons would still allow you to marshal an NHL career based on skating. Boucher is in one way similar to Sushi insofar as his top tool was his shot. His skating limited his ability to use it in the NHL, for Lekkerimaki, its not skating, its something else.

But I want to make clear -- I am not saying he will bust. I am merely saying that because he doesn't have as identifiable of a fall back and because his current gap between AHL and NHL is a categorical one as opposed to a percentage-off one, the bust has a higher potential than most.

And what I am saying is nothing different that what many observed from him in his draft year. I think he was always an "upside" pick. That the concerns in his game remain the same isn't alarming yet given his age (but too bad they haven't dissipated), and the success he's had to date is encouraging because its evidence that the skills that gave him the ceiling continue to work at every next level. Like on draft day, he's a prospect with top line winger potential and a will-never-make-it floor. For some prospects three years after being drafted, the ceiling or floor is quite different than they were on draft day, for better or for worse. For Sushi, they remain the same. That's not terrible.

[Meds]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink at the pro level for all of the reasons that UW listed while I was typing.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Edit in italics.

[Cousin Strawberry]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Mëds has a deep unsettling rage for Scandinavians

[Meds]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Mëds has a deep unsettling rage for Scandinavians

Not true. I said Euro.....that's a much bigger pool of players than just Scandinavia. This is a big ice vs small ice issue.

[JelloPuddingPop]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Mëds has a deep unsettling rage for Scandinavians

This is a big ice vs small ice issue.

Keep telling yourself that.

[rikster]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink at the pro level for all of the reasons that UW listed while I was typing.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Edit in italics.

And small Euro players have succeeded and many prefer the smaller ice surface because it highlights the strenghts in their games...

The kids 20 and has already put up some good numbers at the AHL level so why we are having this discussion is a head scratcher ...

Reid Boucher????

Take care...

[Meds]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink at the pro level for all of the reasons that UW listed while I was typing.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Edit in italics.

And small Euro players have succeeded and many prefer the smaller ice surface because it highlights the strenghts in their games...

The kids 20 and has already put up some good numbers at the AHL level so why we are having this discussion is a head scratcher ...

Reid Boucher????

Take care...

What percentage of drafted NHL players actually become regular NHL players?

While the numbers say that 74% of 1st round picks will become NHL players, those figures are skewed by the success rates of the top 10 picks (particularly top 5).

In this case we are talking about a 15th OA pick. Only 51% of players drafted at that spot play 100 games in the NHL. 33% play 300 games. Only 36% score 100 points.

So it's not a stretch to question if he will pan out. As UW pointed out, the list of smallish forwards who thrive in a less physical game that is played on a larger ice surface but do not see their success translate to the NHL is a long list.

Reid Boucher may be a poor comparison to Sushi, but I think UW explained it well enough.

We can even drop the Euro component. 5'11" is an average height for the NHL, but 172 lbs is not. Many players like that can dominate in junior, Europe/KHL, and the AHL, but not the NHL.

[rikster]

Small Euro scorer who thrived on big ice with lots of room but isn't seeing it translate over to the North American rink at the pro level for all of the reasons that UW listed while I was typing.

It's not a stretch to say he won't pan out as a top-6 NHL forward. Happens all the time. In fact it is far more likely that he will bust than that he will succeed at the NHL level.

Edit in italics.

And small Euro players have succeeded and many prefer the smaller ice surface because it highlights the strenghts in their games...

The kids 20 and has already put up some good numbers at the AHL level so why we are having this discussion is a head scratcher ...

Reid Boucher????

Take care...

What percentage of drafted NHL players actually become regular NHL players?

While the numbers say that 74% of 1st round picks will become NHL players, those figures are skewed by the success rates of the top 10 picks (particularly top 5).

In this case we are talking about a 15th OA pick. Only 51% of players drafted at that spot play 100 games in the NHL. 33% play 300 games. Only 36% score 100 points.

So it's not a stretch to question if he will pan out. As UW pointed out, the list of smallish forwards who thrive in a less physical game that is played on a larger ice surface but do not see their success translate to the NHL is a long list.

Reid Boucher may be a poor comparison to Sushi, but I think UW explained it well enough.

We can even drop the Euro component. 5'11" is an average height for the NHL, but 172 lbs is not. Many players like that can dominate in junior, Europe/KHL, and the AHL, but not the NHL.

Just relax and let the kid develope....we can carry on this conversation in 2 or 3 years time and by then we might have a good understanding of where his career is....

Take care...