Canucks News N Notes 25-26

[BoS]

Yeah, I was of the assumption Sasson was still exempt from waivers. If he is not, I can’t see management trying to sneak him through. He’s higher on the depth chart than Kampf IMO.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Yeah, I was of the assumption Sasson was still exempt from waivers. If he is not, I can’t see management trying to sneak him through. He’s higher on the depth chart than Kampf IMO.

You are correct, Blades, he is exempt. My bad.

I agree re Kampf, and obviously Bains and Ratu as well.

[UWSaint]

Players like Sasson clear waivers all the time (well, not like Sasson, since he doesn't have to clear waivers). What I mean is that 25 year olds who are roster fillers -- good enough to play in the NHL, not good enough to make a difference to an NHL team, often clear waivers because most teams roster one or more of these players and they don't make roster space for another.

Nothing against Sasson, though. I've said before that I like Sasson's speed and would like to see him develop a better forechecking game based on it. His offense is nearly all jumping the zone and off the rush, and you can do that stuff on a 4th line, but he's got no business playing with high end skill and so without the other attributes of a good third liner he'll never be that important. Still, I like a bit of speed in the bottom 6, and Sasson has that and has some finish.

The Canucks clearly like him -- he just got a two year extension. He needed more games to avoid UFA6 status. His signing allows the Canucks a bit more flexibility with roster management if these IR guys ever come off it before the pending UFAs (and then some?) are traded out. (Put simply, they can now send Sasson back to Abby without the UFA6 issue).

[Megaterio Llamas]

Players like Sasson clear waivers all the time (well

I guess I'm a little attached to my Abby guys, UW. I've watched Sasson improve for a couple of years. Out of all the college FAs we signed that year, he was the one who made it.

I was wondering about the number of games.

[Tciso]

No game thread up, but here's the tentative lineup for the game tonight. Boeser didn't skate, but he will play, so scratch Bainser.

I'd prefer using a Roomba instead of Bainser as a fill in during practice. Both suck. One doesn't use a roster spot.

[Megaterio Llamas]

No game thread up, but here's the tentative lineup for the game tonight. Boeser didn't skate, but he will play, so scratch Bainser.

I'd prefer using a Roomba instead of Bainser as a fill in during practice. Both suck. One doesn't use a roster spot.

Oh Cisco

[rats19]

We are 3 pts from picking 6th…

[Meds]

We are 3 pts from picking 6th…

And 0 points from picking no lower than 3rd.

[Chef Boi RD]

Ya just know we ain’t picking top 5. The sooner we accept this the least disappointed we’ll be . My guess is we’ll be picking closer to 10th OA

[dangler]

Ya just know we ain’t picking top 5. The sooner we accept this the least disappointed we’ll be . My guess is we’ll be picking closer to 10th OA

Well then maybe you'll get the Maholtra kid you've been pining for

[Chef Boi RD]

Ya just know we ain’t picking top 5. The sooner we accept this the least disappointed we’ll be . My guess is we’ll be picking closer to 10th OA

Well then maybe you'll get the Maholtra kid you've been pining for

I saw he was just ranked around 15th overall on someone’s list yesterday. Like I said, decent pick in the mid teens but he isn’t projecting to be a top line player, similar to his Dad. I don’t that’s what we need. A bit redundant with Cootes, Rossi and Raty locked up for awhile. Caleb ain’t a first line centre. 2nd tops, 3rd line centre most likely.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Footers are going to break Demko physically, and we'll be right back in the draft hunt.

[Meds]

Shooting percentages like ours (on more than a few of our wins this season) are not sustainable. Regression to the mean is why we are in last place right now. Demko might stand on his head, hell, he could win the Vézina this year, but he can’t compete for the Rocket Richard, and unless he’s chasing both of those pieces of hardware the Canucks aren’t climbing out of the basement.

[UWSaint]

Ya just know we ain’t picking top 5. The sooner we accept this the least disappointed we’ll be . My guess is we’ll be picking closer to 10th OA

I tend to agree that the Canucks will probably end up picking in the 6-12 range absent lottery luck. I think this team is going to play something like point a game hockey (or maybe even slightly better) from the Hughes trade forward. I am thinking a 76-84 point range.

2025: Teams with 76 points picked 6, 7, 8 (all knocked down in lottery); a team with 84 points would have picked 12 (Utah jumps).
2024: 76 points picks 5th, 84 points picks 11th
2023: 76 points picks 8th, 84 points picks 12th.

You get the idea. Now there's some reason to think any sub-500 team is going to be in better shape in the draft rankings than the typical season because the bottom of the league doesn't look near as bad (relatively) compared to most years. You can't point to 3 teams and know for certain they will be in the bottom 5. Not yet. Its not like you can use permanent marker to give San Jose or Chicago an automatic top 5 pick.

And of course, the Canucks ultimate record and relative draft standings are going to depend a fair bit on (1) who is dealt and when (and for what), (2) injuries, (3) the same stuff for other middling teams. But to date, I think it is fair to say that the Canuck injury situation has (1) been relatively bad and (2) contributed more to their record than it might otherwise. Just look at the goaltending. I can think of 2 games (maybe) where Lankinen outplayed the guy on the other side of the ice, 1 in which Tolopolio did. And of the remaining games, in more than half the Canucks goalie was objectively outplayed, with the remainder being games of relative equal goaltending.

Goalies can win games that shouldn't be won. And goalies can lose games that should be won. Some goalies are inconsistent, stealing a lot of games and blowing a lot of games (which is what Lankinen did last year). And there are a handful of goalies -- and I count healthy Demko as one, who rarely gets outplayed and can steal more than his fair share.

With a pop gun offense, its is all the more important to have a goalie that makes the timely big save and keeps the score close and doesn't put the team in a position to play a game they aren't designed to win. I know that the past two games are a very small sample size, but the Canucks just got off a stretch where their play was decent and the results were not. And then they play two games where they have the better goalie and win because of it. Think about last night -- Demko is not just making stops, but swallowing pucks on screened shots that Lankinen burps out for tap ins that "he had no chance on."

Even the Jets looked terrible once they lost Bucky. What were they, 3-8-1? While they have a little more scoring than the Canucks, they aren't an offensive juggernaut and when the goalie is a sieve and can't keep the game tight, they struggled badly.

I really don't see this team giving up. I think they play for Foote; the young kids for their futures. And I hate to say it, but if the health Gods smile on the Canucks (which is sort of like the Hockey Gods cursing them), Swede-Austrian-Czech (Chytil, not Kampf...)-Latvian/Finn is a pretty good set down the middle.... Still lacking offense (Hughes loss will be great), but there's some cause to think that the defensive set is really not too bad and should only improve as the season goes on. But bigger picture, this team still seems far more competitive top to bottom than those late 2010s teams that still managed to "earn" only a single top 5 pick. Those teams felt like legitimate contenders for worst team in the league; this team just isn't there, subject to more player movement and injury......

I really don't know yet where this goes. My opinion generally is that it is the truly exceptional players that create cup contenders. And the Canucks don't really have these guys outside healthy Demko and a still incomplete-turnaround for EP40. Possibly Buium or Willander can achieve this, but I they need something huge up front and I don't see it in the roster or the pipeline. They are complements to a core that doesn't exist -- the whole lot or them from draftees to NHL roster players. And without at least one more core forward when these younger guys peak, the ceiling I think is to be a bubble team. And that's with a Demko.

[UWSaint]

Shooting percentages like ours (on more than a few of our wins this season) are not sustainable. Regression to the mean is why we are in last place right now. Demko might stand on his head, hell, he could win the Vézina this year, but he can’t compete for the Rocket Richard, and unless he’s chasing both of those pieces of hardware the Canucks aren’t climbing out of the basement.

I don't understand this post at all. The Canucks have the 11th worst shooting percentage in the league. Of course the percentage in 3 goal 15 shot games is not sustainable, but no one expects it would be. Stats don't regress to the mean in a single unit (game). And they certainly have when looking at 33 games or however many they've played. But of course there are always games better than the average. That's how it works.

And while this shooting percentage is poor, the save percentage is worse. 8th worst in the league. (Demko's numbers would have the Canucks at 6th best in the league.... He's played in just shy of 40% of the games, a few time not looking all that comfortable).