Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

[Chef Boi RD]

Ole Chef has been watching old hockey fights from the 70’s and 80’s and one thing becomes abundantly clear, the best fighters were the ones who could take numerous punches to the face because no fighter back then no matter how good you were did not endure a tilt without receiving numerous fists to the face. I saw one fight where Probert received about a half dozen very solid punches to the face only to end up annihilating the opponent in the end. It was amazing how unfazed Probert was by these fists on his face. It must be really disheartening for one witnessing your opponent being completely unbothered by your best punches

The fighters back then must’ve been walking concussions and not knowing it

[Per]

Ole Chef has been watching old hockey fights from the 70’s and 80’s and one thing becomes abundantly clear, the best fighters were the ones who could take numerous punches to the face because no fighter back then no matter how good you were did not endure a tilt without receiving numerous fists to the face. I saw one fight where Probert received about a half dozen very solid punches to the face only to end up annihilating the opponent in the end. It was amazing how unfazed Probert was by these fists on his face. It must be really disheartening for one witnessing your opponent being completely unbothered by your best punches

The fighters back then must’ve been walking concussions and not knowing it

Yup. Died at 45 and autopsy showed traumatic brain damage.
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/spor ... ghter.html

[Mickey107]

With Nico Hischier signing an 8 year deal for 7.25 million annual cap hit, 10 million per for both of EP and Huggy might be a low estimate. People thinking they will sign for 8 or 9 are likely out to lunch.

Nico is overpaid by about 1 mil right now, if he lives up to his 'hype/potential' then it will be a good signing. Agree that both Petey and Huges are on course to be paid more than him, I do think around 9 mil is possible, especially in the flat cap era. A home town discount with amount to around .5 mil savings on each contract.

Ya, I think Nico got about a half mil more then I expected, especially with that long term and the hard times that will be around for a while.

Petey and Hughes are not going to make over 10 mil for 8yrs each. Neither will expect or ask for that. Who says stuff like that?

[Blob Mckenzie]

With Nico Hischier signing an 8 year deal for 7.25 million annual cap hit, 10 million per for both of EP and Huggy might be a low estimate. People thinking they will sign for 8 or 9 are likely out to lunch.

Nico is overpaid by about 1 mil right now, if he lives up to his 'hype/potential' then it will be a good signing. Agree that both Petey and Huges are on course to be paid more than him, I do think around 9 mil is possible, especially in the flat cap era. A home town discount with amount to around .5 mil savings on each contract.

Ya, I think Nico got about a half mil more then I expected, especially with that long term and the hard times that will be around for a while.

Petey and Hughes are not going to make over 10 mil for 8yrs each. Neither will expect or ask for that. Who says stuff like that?

It’s market value Gohmert. Try to keep up.

[Mickey107]

With Nico Hischier signing an 8 year deal for 7.25 million annual cap hit, 10 million per for both of EP and Huggy might be a low estimate. People thinking they will sign for 8 or 9 are likely out to lunch.

Nico is overpaid by about 1 mil right now, if he lives up to his 'hype/potential' then it will be a good signing. Agree that both Petey and Huges are on course to be paid more than him, I do think around 9 mil is possible, especially in the flat cap era. A home town discount with amount to around .5 mil savings on each contract.

Ya, I think Nico got about a half mil more then I expected, especially with that long term and the hard times that will be around for a while.

Petey and Hughes are not going to make over 10 mil for 8yrs each. Neither will expect or ask for that. Who says stuff like that?

It’s market value Gohmert. Try to keep up.

Remind me not to shop at your emporium.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger
Sources say the Arizona Coyotes are shopping the rights to Taylor Hall.
7:21 AM · Oct 5, 2020

https://www.tsn.ca/arizona-coyotes-shop ... -1.1534489

[theman]

With Nico Hischier signing an 8 year deal for 7.25 million annual cap hit, 10 million per for both of EP and Huggy might be a low estimate. People thinking they will sign for 8 or 9 are likely out to lunch.

Nico is overpaid by about 1 mil right now, if he lives up to his 'hype/potential' then it will be a good signing. Agree that both Petey and Huges are on course to be paid more than him, I do think around 9 mil is possible, especially in the flat cap era. A home town discount with amount to around .5 mil savings on each contract.

Ya, I think Nico got about a half mil more then I expected, especially with that long term and the hard times that will be around for a while.

Petey and Hughes are not going to make over 10 mil for 8yrs each. Neither will expect or ask for that. Who says stuff like that?

It’s market value Gohmert. Try to keep up.

If revenues rebound, then yes, I can see them signing for around 10 mil each. If next season is close repeat to this (no fans in stands), then they won't be. Best case scenario anyway I I think they each sign for 9 mil a season.

[Mickey107]

https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-watch-cou ... -1.1534427

Larry Brooks is reporting out of New York that the Rangers are still not sure that they are going to qualify Ryan Strome.

Strome posted 18 goals and a career-high 59 points in 70 games this past season, but Brooks writes the Rangers may find the roughly $4.75 million he would likely earn in arbitration too rich for them.

The 27-year-old, who is currently listed at No. 16 on the TSN Trade Bait board, is coming off a two-year contract which saw him carry a cap hit of $3.1 million. He was traded to the Rangers early in the 2018-19 season from the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Ryan Spooner.

Brooks reports that the Rangers have issued qualifying offers to Tony DeAngelo, Alex Georgiev and Brendan Lemieux. The deadline to issue qualifying offers to retain the rights of restricted free agents is Tuesday at 5pm et.

The Rangers, who bought out goaltender Henrik Lundqvist last week, have $23 million in projected cap space this off-season with 13 players under contract.

Jake Virtanen got 18 goals last year. Not quite as many assists but, yikes. Of course he can sign "whatever", to stay home.
Offer Jake a 2yr show me deal of 2.4, right now and if he takes it, let Toffoli test the market.

[SKYO]

lebrun: Matt Niskanen is learning towards retirement. Niskanen, 33, has another year left on his contract at $5.75 million. By all accounts, he seems pretty resolute in his decision. Which obviously will have an impact now on Flyers' off-season plans.

*Niskanen retiring from the Flyers. May be the first casualty of the pandemic. An older player who has made his money. doesn't want bubbles or risks, hard to blame him.

[UWSaint]

It’s market value Gohmert. Try to keep up.

The "market" depends on more than comparable contracts. The non—arbitration eligible RFA market is determined by three forces. First, the potential of an offer sheet. I know that these are rare, but they keep teams from only relying on force #2: the desirability of having that player on your team and not hold out. The RFA "market" is primarily influenced by this force, which is more like a game of chicken then a function of market supply and demand. Players will use “comparable contracts” in their argument about what’s appropriate, but its hardly a measuring stick until there is arbitration. The third force comes into play when you are considering signing guys into UFA years. That's the speculation of what the natural market will be for this player during those years, subtracting the “overpayment” during the RFA years.

This factor is really large -- that's why 8 year deals after an ELC are so much more expensive than a bridge (or shorter) deal (and it shows how depressed the RFA market is given the rarity of offer sheets and the fact that a team's decision to not match an offer sheet means they get alternate value (draft picks).

It is this third force that is materially different today than it was pre-Covid. The NHL was experiencing an impressive period of revenue growth, goosed a bit by an expansion team. The cap more than doubled over its first 14 years (from 39 million to 81.5 million – that’s about 5.4% compounded annual growth – and I am sure teams were expecting the cap was going to increase annually about 5.4% (the cap more than doubled in its first 14 years -- which included one period leading to the lockout where revenues were experienced some bumpiness.).

So when a guy like Marner is signed to a 10.9 M deal eating into free agency for two years beginning in the 5th year it is signed, it was fair to anticipate the cap would be approximately 30% higher than it was when the contract was signed ($100.6M)-- maybe even greater given an expansion during that period. His cap hit falls as a percentage -- from 13.4% to 10.8% in the first UFA year. If you don’t want to use the overpayment of Marner as the comp, consider the reasonable deal to a comparable player like Rantanen, who signed the same term contract (6 years; eating into 2 UFA years) at 9.25M, or 11.3% of cap in Y1 and an anticipated 9.2% of cap in Y5, the first UFA year.

It is the percentage of cap space, and not the actual dollars, that influences demand for the players’ services. We don’t know what the future holds, but I think that teams are being told to prepare for the cap to remain flat for multiple seasons. So let’s assume that its flat for the next 3 seasons, with this season being Y1. Then let’s assume it goes up by 5.4% again – which is a pretty rosy prediction and will depend greatly on a few things I don’t know about (how are they going to treat carried over losses even after escrow is not paid back to players at all). Under this scenario, the cap in the Pettersson/Hughes years (for a six year deal is: 81.5, 81.5 (4th year of flat cap), 85.9, 90.5, 95.4 (first UFA season). For these guys to have a rough equivalent to Rantanen’s expected impact, the number is $8.78 M – and that’s actually paying more (as a percentage of cap) during the RFA years than the Avalanche expected to be paying Rantanen. For Marner, the number would be $10.3M.

Another comparable is Aho, though his deal only goes into one UFA season. Aho is at $8.45M, or a deal that starts at 10.4% of cap space and ends at what would have been 8.4% of anticipated cap space. And the expected value of the Aho deal if signed during this season to begin next season – presuming the above scenario of two flat years and presuming a 5 year contract to eliminate the complications of estimating the “true UFA” salary (which is to say overpayment spread during RFA years and under payment for UFA years) is $8M.

What’s the bottom line? The bottom line is that you can take about $500K off the “market” price for young stars coming off an ELC, and that’s with a pretty rosy estimate that the hockey economy is going to bounce back and that owners (and existing players) are going to do anything creative to make the players who will lose a ton in escrow whole. I presume that the owners, the NHLPA, and players agents have a far better perspective on likely movements of the cap in future years than some poster like me -- but that's knowledge really is critical to understanding how much the market has changed.

Last bit on this stuff. I don’t understand why people talk about a “hometown discount” when it comes to signing young players off of their ELC’s. Every player is in the same position – having known and grown up in one organization – their hometown team. The “hometown discount” factor might exist, but only for players who have the choice as to where to play. To be sure, it might come in at the margins (those last couple of years), but the team will “pay” with some variation of pay or movement protection for those years. The other kind of “discount” is the “make it work so we can be a Stanley Cup contender” discount. If I were a player’s agent, I’d recommend that no player coming off an ELC factor this in to a decision to sign a 6-8 year deal. You just don’t know what the shape of that team looks like in 4 years – that’s a long time in hockey terms. The Canucks might continue their arc of improvement, but they might not. For its competitive stance NOW, the team will always have an option to control costs in the foreseeable future – a bridge deal (or shorter). Take the bridge and reevaluate the value of the “be competitive” thing when you are closer to being able to choose between competitive teams.

[SKYO]

UWSaint.

And if it's any consolation, Jim Benning has signed most of his RFA's to good deals, it's the UFA's that he gave more to, but that's true to most teams as it's a bidders market and the team was rebuilding, now the tables have turned as we become a contender.

[Blob Mckenzie]

Horvat and Miller are up in three years

Boeser in two years

If the boys would agree to 8 year deals to .... you know, set up the team’s future and future payroll, that’s the way to go. Three year bridge deal is the only one that could work other than 8 yrs. It still gives the team two years control beyond the next contract and doesn’t land in the same year as Horvat and Miller. Boeser will be sorted out or moved prior to those two bridge deals being extended. 2, 4 and 5/6 year deals should be non starters for the team. Reeks like a guy with one eye on his next team.

[UWSaint]

Boeser will be sorted out or moved prior to those two bridge deals being extended. 2, 4 and 5/6 year deals should be non starters for the team. Reeks like a guy with one eye on his next team.

I don't mind guy who has one eye on his next team if he performs for the current team. Everyone loves the contract year peak performer....

But I do question whether anything reeks.

Whatever agreement a team makes with a player is a two year street. Boeser was reported to be open to any term; they didn't strike the long term deal, perhaps for many reasons, but the team certainly had a reason. They had an offseason plan that added a couple of forwards and a couple of defensemen and put them against the cap. Once Luongo retired and the recapture penalty applied, the team didn't have an option to sign Boeser to 7/8 year deal.

In addition, I think the Canucks likely identified Pettersson and Hughes as the known core of this team for many many years. Boeser's health made him more of a question mark (on top of the fact that Pettersson was known to be a better player and Hughes has since shown himself to also be far more unique and valuable). If the Canucks are going to sign 7/8 year deals, they had an option of having maximum flexibility for that time and having it be their #1 and #2 guys to lock up first -- not their #3 guy. You work around #1 and #2 if you have a choice; and by signing Boeser to a short deal they made that choice.

Next, if a team is in the window, they shouldn't necessarily be thinking of the longest deal highest AAV. The Canucks have 4 RFA years with Pettersson and Hughes. If the team looks like a contender this upcoming season -- say a clear top 10 team, then you might take a step back from the 7/8 year deal. It isn't unreasonable to think that an 8 year deal with have a 3-4M more AAV hit than a 4 year deal. That's $6-8 million now. If you are in a window for 4 years and can add a $6-8 million player, that's not chump change. The objection, of course, is that it will be harder to keep that together in year 5, and that's absolutely true. But if that's what it takes to be a top 5 team for those 4 seasons, then its not necessarily a bad decision. A team is going to have a hard time getting reliable impact players drafting outside of the top 20. How many have the Canucks had in the past 20 years? I think 2 from the first round -- Kesler and Boeser out of about a dozen selections. That 2025-2029 team is unlikely to have as many draft contributors as 2021-25 team will. That's why I don't think that the Canucks will have a better window from 2025-2029 as they will have from 2021-2025. There's a decent argument that *if* the team takes another step forward next season, using the Sutter, Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Luongo cap space to maximize their 2021-25 window, not maximize the guarantee that Hughes and Petey will play the entire decade in Vancouver, is the right call. Its a call that will likely cost the Canucks one of the two, but not a reckless or unreasonable judgment call. I don't know that I am there personally, but its not an argument to dismiss outright.

Finally, as a player, you might be very loyal but still want to maximize how much money you make over your career. ELC + 3 RFA + 8 UFA is probably the way to do that from a confident player's perspective.

[rats19]

Geez hockey figuring is hard...

[theman]

Um bad news for Edmonton, McDavid has Covid 19.

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/stat ... 9749255169

I looked twice to make sure if wasn't a prank, Friedman has retweeted this.

He is experiencing 'mild symptoms.' In all seriousness, I hope he is okay.

[Madcombinepilot]

Ummm, he is an elite athlete. He is younger than 40, and has no pre existing respiratory issues (he wouldn’t be an elite athlete if he did).

To him, it’s the flu.

He will be fine in a few days.

If you listen to the media, this is some scary shit.

If you do the math, (your under age 58, no immunity or respiratory issues) you have a better chance dying several ways...

In a drinking related auto accident on a long weekend
Being a non American, serving in Afghanistan and being killed by ‘friendly fire’ by the American armed forces (all services combined)
Living north of the 40th parallel, and being hit by a falling soviet satellite.
Hitting a white tailed deer on a Saskatchewan highway while in a vehicle


There is much more interesting ways to die when your young and Healthy!!