Re-booted SKYO approved pipe dreams and trade ideas

[UWSaint]

So there is chatter about trading d for offense. The whole rob Peter to pay Paul (credit Dude).

Now I am a little suspicious of this instinct because I think teams tend to succeed more by leaning into marginal advantages as opposed to balancing out so everything is average.

But say the approach is to balance.

It is also true that a team’s success in the cap era is maximized by minimizing dead cap and underperforming contracts and getting quality play from ELCs and others paid well below their current UFA market value.

All this talk of trading Willander or DEP2 — that’s not the move. Making that move means the Canucks—who have dead cap and who have a number of contracts that aren’t “deals” (to put it charitably)—eliminate the possibility of windfall value from an ELC. (Do I think Mancini, EP2, Willander, or more than 1 of them will provide that value? They might, but it is a major risk to depend on them for more than bottom pair minutes).

Still, if it’s balance and go big or bust, the move is Hronek, not the kids, and not the 1st (or in addition to the first). Hronek is a month away from a NMC kicking in. Personally, I am a huge fan of this player, and I think he was a major factor in the 2023-24 season and a 90 point season last year (instead of something worse). I think his contract is good — a more than reasonable cap hit over a term where he should continue to be productive given his age.

The thing is, my guess is there are many gms who see Hronek the same as I do. You don’t get value from guys at the bottom, trading on potential means the team bearing the risk pays less and your chances at windfall are reduced. Trading a roster player who is a very good bet to solve another team’s top 4 problem for years should make for a generous return (around what the Canucks traded for him, imo; perhaps a little better, if the Canucks are getting futures to then move), *and* it frees up cap his cap space.

Like I said, I am not necessarily sold on the “balance” — leaning into boring hockey could maximize the chances of beating good teams. But if we are trading D to improve the offense, the move that makes the most sense if the Canucks are to boom or bust and not find themselves in bubble purgatory is trading Filip Hronek.

[JelloPuddingPop]

Clipped for size.

So there is chatter about trading d for offense. The whole rob Peter to pay Paul (credit Dude).

I think this strategy could certainly work. If you move Hronek, there are a few options to replace him temporarily on the UFA market (a better selection than UFA Centres this year).

Don't get me wrong, I, like you, think Hronek is a key part in balancing the defense - but if you think Willander/Mancini could play up the lineup in 3 or so years - why not sign a vet like Savard, Petry or even Ceci for a couple of years (or to a tradable contract) until the kids are ready.

As an example:

Would Dallas go for a Hronek & 1st for Hintz trade? Their right side D is definitely a weakness, with Ceci (UFA), Lyubuskin, Petrovic and Dumba being their options. Hronek would immediately slot into their top pairing with Harley. They have centre-ice depth in Johnson, with Duchene and Bourque behind him.

Sets Vancouver back in terms of defense for a year or two - with the hoping being reinforcements are not far away.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Clipped for size.

So there is chatter about trading d for offense. The whole rob Peter to pay Paul (credit Dude).

I think this strategy could certainly work. If you move Hronek, there are a few options to replace him temporarily on the UFA market (a better selection than UFA Centres this year).

Don't get me wrong, I, like you, think Hronek is a key part in balancing the defense - but if you think Willander/Mancini could play up the lineup in 3 or so years - why not sign a vet like Savard, Petry or even Ceci for a couple of years (or to a tradable contract) until the kids are ready.

As an example:

Would Dallas go for a Hronek & 1st for Hintz trade? Their right side D is definitely a weakness, with Ceci (UFA), Lyubuskin, Petrovic and Dumba being their options. Hronek would immediately slot into their top pairing with Harley. They have centre-ice depth in Johnson, with Duchene and Bourque behind him.

Sets Vancouver back in terms of defense for a year or two - with the hoping being reinforcements are not far away.

Heiskenen is by far their best defenseman JP, he's top five in the league.

He slots into the first pairing ahead of everybody else.

[Meds]

So there is chatter about trading d for offense. The whole rob Peter to pay Paul (credit Dude).

Now I am a little suspicious of this instinct because I think teams tend to succeed more by leaning into marginal advantages as opposed to balancing out so everything is average.

While I agree with you, right now the Canucks are severely unbalanced. Our top-6 on the blueline is probably top-10, and if D-Petey continues his progression, and we see Mancini hit his potential under Foote's coaching, then I'd argue that it is easily top-5.

However, our top-6 forward group is bottom-5 right now.....it could actually be the worst collection in the league. So while our defense is a marginal advantage, our offense is such a disadvantage that we are looking at a negative sum game.

Still, if it’s balance and go big or bust, the move is Hronek, not the kids, and not the 1st (or in addition to the first). Hronek is a month away from a NMC kicking in. Personally, I am a huge fan of this player, and I think he was a major factor in the 2023-24 season and a 90 point season last year (instead of something worse). I think his contract is good — a more than reasonable cap hit over a term where he should continue to be productive given his age.

The strength of out blueline obviously revolves around Hughes. Take him out of the picture and we still have a responsible group, but we don't have anything special and our transition game is in the bottom half of the league (with the current collection of forwards). So any build or balancing or whatever has to be walked out after the decision is made regarding Hughes future here.

I bring this up because Hughes game took a quantum leap forward when he partnered with Hronek. He likes playing with him, they read each other well and have chemistry as blueline partners. While they have occasionally been split, and obviously Hronek has been injured, Hughes is most effective with him as a partner. Trading Hronek would mean that Hughes has watched a key player that was as dedicated to preparation as Quinn is get traded because of bad chemistry (and spillover) with a deadbeat, his preferred coach depart because of said situation, another teammate (Boeser) who has stepped up his own work ethic the past couple years walk to UFA without an extension, and then his blueline partner for the past 2+ seasons would then be shipped out prior to a NMC kicking in. That will make things less attractive for him to stick around in 2 years time.

The thing is, my guess is there are many gms who see Hronek the same as I do. You don’t get value from guys at the bottom, trading on potential means the team bearing the risk pays less and your chances at windfall are reduced. Trading a roster player who is a very good bet to solve another team’s top 4 problem for years should make for a generous return (around what the Canucks traded for him, imo; perhaps a little better, if the Canucks are getting futures to then move), *and* it frees up cap his cap space.

Like I said, I am not necessarily sold on the “balance” — leaning into boring hockey could maximize the chances of beating good teams. But if we are trading D to improve the offense, the move that makes the most sense if the Canucks are to boom or bust and not find themselves in bubble purgatory is trading Filip Hronek.

I don't disagree with you assessment on value and return here, but I do think that if you are making trades from the back-end to turn the forward group around in a reset to win over the next few seasons, then you have to be trading Willander and our 1st. If a current roster player is moved out, then I think you have to "eat a loss" on EP40.....and by that I mean that you package Pettersson with a future loss (pick or prospect) in order to replace him with a (now) equivalent where the actual gain is cap space. So ship Pettersson (a should be 1C) out for a return of someone who is a right now 2C. Willander + 1st (and more if needed) are used to acquire someone who is either a right now 1C, or projects to be one if that player is in their early 20's. That may seem like a lateral move because Pettersson is already that "projecting" 1C, however his "replacement" is ideally 5 years younger than him and ready to step into his own.

The cap move would then be to utilize Pettersson's $11.4M and try and get Marner for Rantanen-money.

The reason I like Marner in Vancouver right now (after years of thinking of him as a soft perimeter muffin) is because he contributes at a pace of 90+ points per season for the past 7 years and he has become a very reliable 2-way winger that plays all situations. He does this on a team that has been defensively porous with unreliable netminding. He may have benefited from having a prolific scorer like Matthews as a linemate for most of this time, so I would expect as much as a 10% drop in his production (depending upon who else the Canucks add). However, I could see him being a key part of a successful group that is better at keeping the puck out of their own net than the current situation he has been in for his career to date. Our current blueline and goaltending (assuming a healthy Demko) is very much that sort of build.

[JelloPuddingPop]

Clipped for size.

So there is chatter about trading d for offense. The whole rob Peter to pay Paul (credit Dude).

I think this strategy could certainly work. If you move Hronek, there are a few options to replace him temporarily on the UFA market (a better selection than UFA Centres this year).

Don't get me wrong, I, like you, think Hronek is a key part in balancing the defense - but if you think Willander/Mancini could play up the lineup in 3 or so years - why not sign a vet like Savard, Petry or even Ceci for a couple of years (or to a tradable contract) until the kids are ready.

As an example:

Would Dallas go for a Hronek & 1st for Hintz trade? Their right side D is definitely a weakness, with Ceci (UFA), Lyubuskin, Petrovic and Dumba being their options. Hronek would immediately slot into their top pairing with Harley. They have centre-ice depth in Johnson, with Duchene and Bourque behind him.

Sets Vancouver back in terms of defense for a year or two - with the hoping being reinforcements are not far away.

Heiskenen is by far their best defenseman JP, he's top five in the league.

He slots into the first pairing ahead of everybody else.

Good point, but could pair Hronek with either left shot guys, Harley or Heiskenen, depending on if you need offense at the moment or hold a lead. Either way - he would be their top right side D.

[Megaterio Llamas]

Heiskanen mostly plays the right side despite being a left shot, but Hronek would bolster their blueline.

[JelloPuddingPop]

Heiskanen mostly plays the right side despite being a left shot, but Hronek would bolster their blueline.

Gotcha, thanks again. And yes.

[Cousin Strawberry]

Lots of rumbling about the Canucks are open to training one of their promising young defense prospects for a center.

So here are the three that might be used to bring back a good young center with equivalent upside:

Mancini - DPete - Willander

Of these 3, who would you be willing to use to get what we need?

[Blob Mckenzie]

. Do you dump drywall and paint in the bush or even on the Number 1?

I can totally picture the Chef as one of those sketchy Pete the contractor types who dump shit in the bush

I wouldn't put it past him. Shingles, drywall, insulation, asbestos, old paint, dirty gas. Probably right near a stream. THen he wonders why the fish an extra fin and a third eye.

[Chef Boi RD]

In Doyle’s heyday he wore a 44 waist and a 26 leg, running tabs at San Remo’s putting back pints at the Arms on the reg. There was no stopping’ this freight train, it carried a heavy load from Tucson to Chattanooga on the red eye, spent many nights at the Patricia, terrorizing its ghostly halls, bedding with dames who had history you did not go there. As the dust would settle on such evenings as this, while lying there in the dark of his room, eyes lit up by the neon lights coming from the well oiled Hastings street below in all of his whisky deluges, battering his liver and soul, there was only one thought on his mind during this mayhem, held there like an unwavering monument, and thus greatly tormenting his very being, cutting to its core, his one and only nemesis…Elms.

[Hockey Widow]

Lots of rumbling about the Canucks are open to training one of their promising young defense prospects for a center.

So here are the three that might be used to bring back a good young center with equivalent upside:

Mancini - DPete - Willander

Of these 3, who would you be willing to use to get what we need?

Hate to say it but D-Petey. Only because L d is easier to fill. We also have a couple of other LD in the system.

[Blob Mckenzie]

They aren't trading D Petey unless someone blows their socks off.

[Picker of Cherries]

The better Silovs plays the more Demko becomes a trading option, considering re-signing hims is risky and maybe a disagreeable negotiation. Walking him to UFA shouldn’t be an option. Demko for a 2C might be possible.

[Chef Boi RD]

I remember back, with fondness and hilarity, how everyone wanted to trade from our forward group to fix our D position. Now here we find us, trading from our “fixed” D depth to fix our thin top six forward group. It’s a fucking sickness around here, I tell ya… from fan to media to coach to management to president to owner. The whole god damned lot of us. Meanwhile, “recent playoff contender” the Montreal Canadians are the envy of the league with great young talent in every position with two more first round picks on the way, back to back picks right after the Canucks pick. Oh joy! Let us all embrace our loyalty to the Aqualini Canucks where patience is unacceptable.

[Cousin Strawberry]

They aren't trading D Petey unless someone blows their socks off.

The scenario I'm talking about would be for just that.

A Kent Johnson type.

So this hypothetical trade would be Dpete plus 15o/a for KJ