CanucksCorner.com Forums

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 4:38 pm

rikster wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 12:44 pm

Cornuck wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 10:33 am Interesting read on Carney's use of U.S. Treasury bonds to stop tariffs.
https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/car ... adas-quiet

Good find Cornuck...

Kinda stupid to try to destroy the economies of the countries you are up to your eye balls in debt to, especially when you are still spending like a drunken sailor on borrowed money...

Apparently Japan was selling bonds as well. And China owns a ton of US debt so we'll see what happens there.

Trade deficits are inextricably linked to bond sales. When US companies buy foreign goods, it is with US dollars. Eventually those dollars end up as foreign investment in the US (usually T-bills, ie government debt).

So if Trump wants to reduce trade deficits, he's going to have to reduce the budget deficit as well (ie. sell fewer bonds). It seems he's just figuring this out now

I just heard today that it was Japan's selling off of US treasury bonds that prompted Trump's about-face on the worldwide tariffs. They seem to be the largest holder of US bonds.

Japan also met with South Korea and China last week to discuss business.

Megaterio Llamas wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 4:45 pm

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 4:38 pm

rikster wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 12:44 pm

Cornuck wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 10:33 am Interesting read on Carney's use of U.S. Treasury bonds to stop tariffs.
https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/car ... adas-quiet

Good find Cornuck...

Kinda stupid to try to destroy the economies of the countries you are up to your eye balls in debt to, especially when you are still spending like a drunken sailor on borrowed money...

Apparently Japan was selling bonds as well. And China owns a ton of US debt so we'll see what happens there.

Trade deficits are inextricably linked to bond sales. When US companies buy foreign goods, it is with US dollars. Eventually those dollars end up as foreign investment in the US (usually T-bills, ie government debt).

So if Trump wants to reduce trade deficits, he's going to have to reduce the budget deficit as well (ie. sell fewer bonds). It seems he's just figuring this out now

I just heard today that it was Japan's selling off of US treasury bonds that prompted Trump's about-face on the worldwide tariffs. They seem to be the largest holder of US bonds.

Japan also met with South Korea and China last week to discuss business.

Not sure I'd want to go up against China in any trade war...

While the White House is claiming that countries are calling to arrange trade discussions, President Xi is heading to many of the same Asian countries for face to face meetings...

Don't think he spends much time golfing...

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1331953.shtml

If countries start to sell American bonds, the value will go down which will require the return to go up adding more debt servicing interest with the concern that it could bankrupt the country...

Cornuck wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 10:33 am Interesting read on Carney's use of U.S. Treasury bonds to stop tariffs.
https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/car ... adas-quiet

Holy fuck. Excellent read Corn

Trump is the most unathletic specimen on the planet. He doesn't golf, let alone know how the spell the word.

He's probably a mini golf guy though. Shoots par with a few foot wedges and crushes a case of revels with a side of fries and gravy.

Another exemption:

Smartphones, computers, flash drives, semiconductors and solar cells will be exempt from the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs on China and other nations, according to guidance from U.S Customs and Border Protection released late Friday night.

I guess making multi million dollar donations can get you something.

2Fingers wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 9:28 am Another exemption:

Smartphones, computers, flash drives, semiconductors and solar cells will be exempt from the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs on China and other nations, according to guidance from U.S Customs and Border Protection released late Friday night.

I guess making multi million dollar donations can get you something.

Heard that he is also giving an exemption to tie makers in China....

And shirt makers in Bangladesh...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYoOPgeTMQc

rikster wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 10:13 am

2Fingers wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 9:28 am Another exemption:

Smartphones, computers, flash drives, semiconductors and solar cells will be exempt from the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs on China and other nations, according to guidance from U.S Customs and Border Protection released late Friday night.

I guess making multi million dollar donations can get you something.

Heard that he is also giving an exemption to tie makers in China....

And shirt makers in Bangladesh...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYoOPgeTMQc

What about spray-on tanning?

Tciso wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 11:33 am

What about spray-on tanning?

It's actually cheetoh dust brushed on every morning by JD Vance. I saw a video on the internet...

Cousin Strawberry wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 12:23 pm

Tciso wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 11:33 am

What about spray-on tanning?

It's actually cheetoh dust brushed on every morning by JD Vance. Doc...I saw a video on the internet...

Fyp

donlever wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 12:33 pm

Cousin Strawberry wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 12:23 pm

Tciso wrote: ↑Sat Apr 12, 2025 11:33 am

What about spray-on tanning?

It's actually cheetoh dust brushed on every morning by JD Vance. Doc...I saw a video on the internet...

Fyp

So his ballsack is the same colour as Trump's face. Cheetah dust gets everywhere. Especially if you have been eating cheetohs watching tv and masterbating all night in a bean bag chair.

Lol at Dump chin wagging about McIlroy and the Masters. Stay in your own lane buds. Next he'll start yapping about being a soldier.

Megaterio Llamas wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 4:45 pm I just heard today that it was Japan's selling off of US treasury bonds that prompted Trump's about-face on the worldwide tariffs. They seem to be the largest holder of US bonds.

Japan also met with South Korea and China last week to discuss business.

Yes, if you look country by country, on Dec 31st Japan held the most at just over a trillion USD. Then China at 759 billion, the UK at 729 billion, Luxembourg at 424 billion, the Cayman Islands at 419 billion and Canada in sixth place with 379 billion.

But if the EU acts as one entity, they are the greatest debt holder.
Just the top five (Luxembourg 424 + Belgium 359 + Ireland 336 + France 332 + Germany 97 billion) hold a combined USD 1.548 trillion in US debt.

When it comes to trade negotiations the EU commission speaks for all member states, so if they want to use the debt card, it's quite significant.
If they then look arms with the UK, Switzerland and Norway, that adds another 1.170 trillion, so a total of just over 2.7 trillion, plus all the debt owned by the other 22 member states.

rikster wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 5:12 pm
Not sure I'd want to go up against China in any trade war...

Smart.

China just put a freeze on rare earth mineral exports. They hold a virtual monopoly on several of them.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 025-04-11/

Per wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 7:11 am

Megaterio Llamas wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 4:45 pm I just heard today that it was Japan's selling off of US treasury bonds that prompted Trump's about-face on the worldwide tariffs. They seem to be the largest holder of US bonds.

Japan also met with South Korea and China last week to discuss business.

Yes, if you look country by country, on Dec 31st Japan held the most at just over a trillion USD. Then China at 759 billion, the UK at 729 billion, Luxembourg at 424 billion, the Cayman Islands at 419 billion and Canada in sixth place with 379 billion.

But if the EU acts as one entity, they are the greatest debt holder.
Just the top five (Luxembourg 424 + Belgium 359 + Ireland 336 + France 332 + Germany 97 billion) hold a combined USD 1.548 trillion in US debt.

When it comes to trade negotiations the EU commission speaks for all member states, so if they want to use the debt card, it's quite significant.
If they then look arms with the UK, Switzerland and Norway, that adds another 1.170 trillion, so a total of just over 2.7 trillion, plus all the debt owned by the other 22 member states.

A lot of this bond talk has ben massively over-simplified. It has also completey ignored the fact that the same countries that hold US debt also owe the US a portion of their debt. This guy has only looked at 1 side of the issue.

Tciso wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 1:35 pm

Per wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 7:11 am

Megaterio Llamas wrote: ↑Fri Apr 11, 2025 4:45 pm I just heard today that it was Japan's selling off of US treasury bonds that prompted Trump's about-face on the worldwide tariffs. They seem to be the largest holder of US bonds.

Japan also met with South Korea and China last week to discuss business.

Yes, if you look country by country, on Dec 31st Japan held the most at just over a trillion USD. Then China at 759 billion, the UK at 729 billion, Luxembourg at 424 billion, the Cayman Islands at 419 billion and Canada in sixth place with 379 billion.

But if the EU acts as one entity, they are the greatest debt holder.
Just the top five (Luxembourg 424 + Belgium 359 + Ireland 336 + France 332 + Germany 97 billion) hold a combined USD 1.548 trillion in US debt.

When it comes to trade negotiations the EU commission speaks for all member states, so if they want to use the debt card, it's quite significant.
If they then look arms with the UK, Switzerland and Norway, that adds another 1.170 trillion, so a total of just over 2.7 trillion, plus all the debt owned by the other 22 member states.

A lot of this bond talk has ben massively over-simplified. It has also completey ignored the fact that the same countries that hold US debt also owe the US a portion of their debt.

This guy has only looked at 1 side of the issue.

The one side of the issue is pretty significant...

Just think of mortgages...Banks match funds to price fixed rate loans so in simple terms they have a cost of funds which is the rate they have to pay to get the $$ to lend, then they add a spread to cover their costs plus a profit to determine the customers fixed interest rate...

When there is a significant sell off of the bonds which is the money the Government uses to pay its bills, in order to replace the bonds that were sold they have to offer higher interest rates to attract new buyers...

Which means the cost of fixed rate interest loans also goes up...

And maybe more troubling is that in a climate where there is a major sell off when does a new buyer decide to buy? If the return is higher tomorrow investors will hold off until they think the crisis if over and the bond rates start to come down...

It reminds me of back in the 80's when mortgage rates were as high as 18 - 20% and Canada Savings Bonds were paying out 13%...

Prime was climbing on an almost daily basis and smaller institutions like Credit Unions stopped offering fixed rate mortgages because the dollars their customers invested was short term which meant that they couldn't match funds so instead they only offered floating rates which moved everytime the Prime interest rate moved...

From the Financial Post....

U.S. Treasuries are the global lending market benchmark, used by banks around the world to price other instruments, so unusual activity in that bond market can have ripple effects on a host of other markets. With bond yields used to price everything from mortgages to complex derivatives, risk was rising that a broader financial crisis could develop and trigger defaults by financial institutions.