Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

[Madcombinepilot]

Jesper Fast, 29-yo 30 point RW who has been an alternate captain for the past three seasons for the Rangers is on the move.
Swedish media claims Vancouver has shown interest.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/10967/jesper-fast

Not sure... seems Vancouver is mentioned with pretty much every free agent out there this fall.

I guess they're planning to do a series of moves and are on the phone with pretty much every GM and agent on the market, kicking the tyres...

The upcoming week will be very interesting.....

Media ball lickers seem to rumour monger because they have no actual news to report. When was the last time one of these rumours actually happened? JB plays his cards close. Not a leak on the Miller trade. Pearson was a surprise. No whispers on the Toffoli trade....

Whatever he is working on, we will be the last to know. Safe to say if JB picks up the phone, it starts a rumour. So the only thing we know, is JB is working the phones and doing his job.

[2Fingers]

Jesper Fast, 29-yo 30 point RW who has been an alternate captain for the past three seasons for the Rangers is on the move.
Swedish media claims Vancouver has shown interest.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/10967/jesper-fast

Not sure... seems Vancouver is mentioned with pretty much every free agent out there this fall.

I guess they're planning to do a series of moves and are on the phone with pretty much every GM and agent on the market, kicking the tyres...

The upcoming week will be very interesting.....

Media ball lickers seem to rumour monger because they have no actual news to report. When was the last time one of these rumours actually happened? JB plays his cards close. Not a leak on the Miller trade. Pearson was a surprise. No whispers on the Toffoli trade....

Whatever he is working on, we will be the last to know. Safe to say if JB picks up the phone, it starts a rumour. So the only thing we know, is JB is working the phones and doing his job.

Which makes me happy because than means OEL is not coming here.

JB just needs to cool his jets and get rid of the crappy contracts, not get another one regardless of the thought that the contract is tradeable in 5 years.

[ESQ]

[quote=SKYO post_id=398755 time=1601871591
Speaking of Doughty, he's turning 31 soon. He's not the horse he was and they will be paying him $11M until he hits 37. Have you seen where LA is right now? They are highly unlikely to return to contender status until Doughty (and Kopitar) comes off the books. It's also worth pointing out that Doughty was paid a very competitive $7M per on his second deal. He was already one of the highest paid guys when he signed it, and he probably left some on the table because he got term at $7M (in 2011 that was top dollar, especially for a guy who hadn't won anything yet). A bridge deal for Doughty probably would have cost them $8Mx5. Based on 2 cups and a Norris, the still would have been paying him $11Mx8, it just would have ended at 34 years old.....still way too much.

...Yes, I think that was Skyo's point.

Given the Canucks' cap problem for the next 2 years, and the flat cap should prevent salaries growing over the next 2 years, I think it's fine to do 1-2 year bridges. The downside to such short bridges is the re-sign winds up costing much more than it would have otherwise, but people here assess talking about near-max deals anyways, so how can that change?

[Meds]

A bridge deal for Doughty probably would have cost them $8Mx5. Based on 2 cups and a Norris, the still would have been paying him $11Mx8, it just would have ended at 34 years old.....still way too much.

Quinn is an obvious talent. Pay him now and pray the world returns to normal and the cap goes up again in a few years so he's at a reasonable hit for the final half of his contract. Draft and develop well. Then consider trading him in year 8 if his next ask is too big or too long. At that point he's worth a king's ransom in trade.

Only way to be a perennial contender is to be cold as ice in the GM's chair. Benning needs to stock the cupboards (which he's been doing), then make a couple trades to put the team over the top, then continue to draft and develop going forward without adding stupid free agent salaries like Loui, Beagle, and Sutter. Plan on having most guys for 10 years. If they want to be career Canucks then they'll go the Sedin route.

Letang, Doughty and Keith all are multiple champions as key #1 defensemen on their teams.

The key was getting them at a reasonable AAV to win those championships.

With Letang it was a 4 year deal, Doughty 8 years and Keith 13 years! lol can't do that anymore, but whatever JB can do to sign Hughes to a reasonable cap hit is the route to go IF you want to win a championship and win again.

I can see the Canucks go for a 5-6yr or a 8 year deal....ALL depends on which cap hit is best!

2021 the NHL has 4 high profile dmen as RFA's: Heiskanen, Makar, Hughes and Dahlin, it'll be interesting to see what each team does.

An ideal cap hit imo for Hughes would be a $7.5M x 6 year deal, highly aggressive & progressive contract with a $8M salary in the last year.

So when you said.....

I'd advice not paying Hughes for 7-8 yrs, those contracts always end up paying MAX UFA contracts after that & time goes by quick.

...

I'd rather go the John Carlson, Victor Hedman and the Kris Letang route, 4-6 years 2nd contract at a fair AAV for Quinn Hughes, then the 8 year re-sign.

What you meant was.....

A) That you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

B) You don't know which option you actually prefer.

C) You are hedging so that no matter which outcome we see you can say you were right.

D) You are just posting for the sake of posting.

And.....

Letang, Doughty and Keith all are multiple champions as key #1 defensemen on their teams.

Like you already said, Keith signed a 15 year deal, and he got screwed. Sure he's guaranteed $72M, but had he signed a 5 year bridge deal and then re-upped for another 8, he would have easily commanded another $20M over that same span of time. Just maybe not in Chicago.

How successful has LA been since they signed Doughty and Kopitar to those 8 figure contracts? Doughty is historically a bit selfish, he put the screws to them because he regretted signing his 8 year bridge deal and LA had to pay to keep him.

Letang is a great contract for Pittsburgh. He's the ideal actually, back-to-back 4 year deals, then an 8 year deal that terminates at 35. His cap hit now looks great, but really he's a poor comparable because you also have to remember that he's a tertiary piece on that roster behind Crosby and Malkin and whoever is on their line that they are turning into 60+ point wingers. Letang has not been a key factor in their Cup runs. He put up 13 and 15 points respectively in the 2009 and 2016 playoffs, and he didn't even play in 2017 and Justin Schultz stepped in an put up 13 points.

Besides, the market has shifted.

Thanks to to the Matthews, McDavid, Marner, Nylander, and Draisaitl, generation of players, young stars aren't waiting for their payday. They want the term and money, and their agents can now sit back and point to a long history of players who signed bridge deals at AAV's that were well below the comparable production and impact of other, older, players (see Duncan Keith for one). Those older players then got to be bounced around from team to team, or simply shredded in the press and fandoms for being overpaid as their games dropped off.

Hughes single-handedly turned the Canucks around. If you didn't pick up on that in the playoffs then you should maybe consider switching it up to watching tennis or cricket. He's a primary piece, possibly even more important than Petey.

I'll be thrilled if Petey and/or Hughes sign bridge deals, but if you think that it's even a reasonable dream for Huggie to be coming back for $7.5Mx6 then you really gotta put down the pipe......he would be leaving at least $12M on the table.

[Meds]

[quote=SKYO post_id=398755 time=1601871591
Speaking of Doughty, he's turning 31 soon. He's not the horse he was and they will be paying him $11M until he hits 37. Have you seen where LA is right now? They are highly unlikely to return to contender status until Doughty (and Kopitar) comes off the books. It's also worth pointing out that Doughty was paid a very competitive $7M per on his second deal. He was already one of the highest paid guys when he signed it, and he probably left some on the table because he got term at $7M (in 2011 that was top dollar, especially for a guy who hadn't won anything yet). A bridge deal for Doughty probably would have cost them $8Mx5. Based on 2 cups and a Norris, the still would have been paying him $11Mx8, it just would have ended at 34 years old.....still way too much.

...Yes, I think that was Skyo's point.

Given the Canucks' cap problem for the next 2 years, and the flat cap should prevent salaries growing over the next 2 years, I think it's fine to do 1-2 year bridges. The downside to such short bridges is the re-sign winds up costing much more than it would have otherwise, but people here assess talking about near-max deals anyways, so how can that change?

Yeah. I know what his point was. But it actually makes the case for NO bridge deal when you are sure you have a star player in their early to mid-twenties. Pay them and win with them. The point from Doughty is that once you've won with them you let them walk if they ask for the moon and expect the stars to be thrown in on top of it during the backside of their careers.

Hughes is a small guy. I can't see him being the effective older player that Chara and Weber are. Look at Keith, his production and impact have fallen off big time since he turned 33 (or is it 34?). If you want to bridge Hughes, then it has to be a really short bridge. Like 2 years (3 max). Then sign him for 8 at top dollar after that. Good luck with that though.

My point is the market has changed. You have to try and win with your youth, and they expect to be paid to do so.

[Strangelove]

https://twitter.com/taj1944/status/1313271845773168642

Taj
@taj1944

Elliotte said Bruins and Canucks have both told the Coyotes "this is what we can do" and have left it to them.

5:16 PM · Oct 5, 2020

[theman]

https://twitter.com/taj1944/status/1313271845773168642

Taj
@taj1944

Elliotte said Bruins and Canucks have both told the Coyotes "this is what we can do" and have left it to them.

5:16 PM · Oct 5, 2020

Fair enough too. I think they are trying to 'create' a deadline. Fair play to them. Wonder what the offers are.

[Meds]

https://twitter.com/taj1944/status/1313271845773168642

Taj
@taj1944

Elliotte said Bruins and Canucks have both told the Coyotes "this is what we can do" and have left it to them.

5:16 PM · Oct 5, 2020

Fair enough too. I think they are trying to 'create' a deadline. Fair play to them. Wonder what the offers are.

For him to come here ours will have to be significantly better, it would be stupid for AZ to trade OEL within their conference otherwise.

[SKYO]

re: Pettersson, Hughes 2nd contracts.

Let me simplify it for you Mëds, you see to maintain a championship level for a longer duration, you re-sign these guys to the longest you can get em at the lowest possible AAV that they can negotiate for, whether that's 5ish yrs or go 7-8 yrs IF it's at a reasonable number, not a MAX almost UFA type that kills your team instantly, see leaves & sabres.

TBL managed to 3yr Kuch and Point to low cap hits, citing a need to win and get paid big after, that's the selling point, you can compare the leaves overpaid youngsters who haven't got past the 1st round? iirc or go the winning way and bridge a decent amount and try to win and now we got covid19 + a flat cap, this weakens negotiation powers to every agent in the NHL as sales dwindle, fan attendance (who knows how that'll go).

In any case, the point of the matter is, re-signing your franchise youngsters to reasonable cap hit % is just proven to work for every top team in the league that have won a championship and/or have won multiple times in the modern cap era - that was there method for their franchise players (crosby, malkin, letang, stamkos, hedman, bergeron, marchand, kopitar, kane/toews) 10%ish of the teams cap each thereabout, or even less, sans the 5yrs to malkin/crosby 15%/17% of c.h. -but they are generational talent all-stars 80pt-100pt rookies, and I'd appreciate if you lost your condescending tone.

[Cousin Strawberry]

Let me simplify it for you Mëds

When I'm reading this post I think i can hear SKYO typing a little slower so Mëds can understand

[2Fingers]

Let me simplify it for you Mëds

When I'm reading this post I think i can hear SKYO typing a little slower so Mëds can understand

[Madcombinepilot]

Let me simplify it for you Mëds

When I'm reading this post I think i can hear SKYO typing a little slower so Mëds can understand

... heck, if he slows down just one more notch, even Micky will understand!!

[Meds]

Let me simplify it for you Mëds, you see to maintain a championship level for a longer duration, you re-sign these guys to the longest you can get em at the lowest possible AAV that they can negotiate for, whether that's 5ish yrs or go 7-8 yrs IF it's at a reasonable number, not a MAX almost UFA type that kills your team instantly, see leaves & sabres.

Let me simplify it for you SKYO.....

You said:

I'd advice not paying Hughes for 7-8 yrs, those contracts always end up paying MAX UFA contracts after that & time goes by quick.

...

I'd rather go the John Carlson, Victor Hedman and the Kris Letang route, 4-6 years 2nd contract at a fair AAV for Quinn Hughes, then the 8 year re-sign.

To which I basically said that those days are gone. The new generation wants their money now, and the smart GM signs his star youth to contracts that help the team win while the players are in that prime window, which is generally 22-32 years old. The super smart GM then finds in-house replacements for them (or trades for young and upcoming replacements) and is prepared to part with his big ticket guys (either through trade of UFA) and let them finish the final 4-8 years of their careers elsewhere.

Then you said:

The key was getting them at a reasonable AAV to win those championships.

With Letang it was a 4 year deal, Doughty 8 years and Keith 13 years! lol can't do that anymore, but whatever JB can do to sign Hughes to a reasonable cap hit is the route to go IF you want to win a championship and win again.

I can see the Canucks go for a 5-6yr or a 8 year deal....ALL depends on which cap hit is best!

...

An ideal cap hit imo for Hughes would be a $7.5M x 6 year deal, highly aggressive & progressive contract with a $8M salary in the last year.

So then I pointed out how you basically just argued both sides, and are like yeah don't go long term, oh yeah I can see them going bridge.....or even max term. You have to get the best AAV. So like don't go long, but do go long if you have to, but it's all about best AAV.

Obviously the best AAV is what we want, and right now that's probably the one with the most term.....which I was saying is better to give them now rather than when we will be regretting it halfway through the deal because they hit 33 years old and start to drop off.

Then you go and bring up Kucherov as if that's going to make your point.....

TBL managed to 3yr Kuch and Point to low cap hits, citing a need to win and get paid big after, that's the selling point, you can compare the Leaves overpaid youngsters who haven't got past the 1st round? iirc or go the winning way and bridge a decent amount and try to win and now we got covid19 + a flat cap, this weakens negotiation powers to every agent in the NHL as sales dwindle, fan attendance (who knows how that'll go).

Maybe you missed the fact that Kucherov signed his 3 year "bridge deal" at a low cap because it came after he was only a 60 point player. He didn't take a massive hit to win in Tampa, he signed a short bridge because at the time he wasn't the scoring factory he became.....oh and Tampa didn't win with him on that bridge deal. They won after they bent over and took it up the ass until he's 33 (which isn't terrible), but imagine if they had signed him for $6.5M for 8 years in 2016, they would then have $3M more to dump into the team for the next 4 years while he's a superstar and not be scrambling as hard as they are now after winning to keep a contender together.

Point is a better example for you though.....although he, like Kucherov, were not drafted into the NHL in the first round as projected superstars, and that factors into contract negoatiations when coming off of the ELC, especially when there's been a massive spike in production in the contract year that coincides with being elevated (thanks to injury to Stamkos in this case) to playing with a scoring machine winger like Kuch. But it's a great contract.

In any case, the point of the matter is, re-signing your franchise youngsters to reasonable cap hit % is just proven to work for every top team in the league that have won a championship and/or have won multiple times in the modern cap era - that was there method for their franchise players (crosby, malkin, letang, stamkos, hedman, bergeron, marchand, kopitar, kane/toews) 10%ish of the teams cap each thereabout, or even less, sans the 5yrs to malkin/crosby 15%/17% of c.h. -but they are generational talent all-stars 80pt-100pt rookies, and I'd appreciate if you lost your condescending tone.

Can you give me an example of a supposed franchise player who re-signed for a team friendly deal in the last 3 years coming off of their ELC?

My point is that the market has changed and GM's need to change with it. Your young franchise guys want to get paid and they want term guarantee. Give them that term and keep the AAV as low as you can to keep your window open as long as you can.

Think about it. Getting a reasonable AAV for 4 or 5 years for your best players is wonderful.....it sucks ass though when you're contention window is about to open and you load up for that and then hit that 5th year and have that window potentially close because your bridged superstars are walking into free agency and now want term and cash.....and now you have to gut the team you built just to keep those stars. Too bad building the contender cost you some picks and futures so you don't have enough talent still on ELC's to step in and replace the outgoing 2nd and 3rd liners and 2nd pairing defenders.

[Meds]

[MOD EDIT: Yeah let's not go there]

[SKYO]

Obviously the best AAV is what we want, and right now that's probably the one with the most term.....which I was saying is better to give them now rather than when we will be regretting it halfway through the deal because they hit 33 years old and start to drop off.

I'd rather not go MS/HF style ad nauseam back & forth saying the same things over and over again, but we both agree that getting the best AAV is the best case moving forward. Trick is, what term would that be for Petey/Hughes in this new flat cap/covid-19 era.