Vancouver Canucks Messageboard

Best we move the COVID-19 discussion out of the hockey forum and move it to quarantine here at Creep's place.

Strangelove wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:25 pm

Per wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:16 am Death rate is at roughly 2%, a "normal" flu is usually 0.2-1.0%, so yes, it is somewhat deadlier

W.H.O. says the Coronavirus death rate is 3.4% and the seasonal flu death rate is 0.1%

https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop

So yeah, not "somewhat deadlier"... 34 times deadlier!

But the worst part is... it's "spreading like the plague".

Highly contagious.

These numbers/rates are subject to change as the virus mutates of course.

This may/may-not be the bug that kills millions/billions, but said bug will be along eventually...

Strangelove wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:22 pm

Strangelove wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:20 pm https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2 ... y-refused/

San Jose Sharks advised by county to cancel game due to coronavirus. They refused.

Uhhh-ohhh, how long until NHL games start getting canceled?

UPDATE:

https://twitter.com/PollakOnSharks/stat ... 9914229761

David Pollak
@PollakOnSharks

Santa Clara County health officials just banned all events that would attract crowd of more than 1,000 people over the next three weeks. Not seeing anything yet from #SJSharks, but would appear to apply to NHL games. #coronavirusCA

7:18 PM · Mar 9, 2020

Rick Westhead
@rwesthead

All events at the SAP Center have been cancelled for the month of March, including three San Jose Sharks games, and five nights of Cirque de Soleil, The Mercury News in San Jose reports. @mercnews

7:39 PM · Mar 9, 2020

Shit got real...

Strangelove wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:25 pm This is very interesting from a math perspective:



“If people are sufficiently worried… then there’s a lot less to worry about.”
But if no one is worried … that’s when you should worry.”

Re-posted from the other board.

I got out ahead of the crowd and picked up my plague mask.

Boy, she's a real beauty too...

I wonder if that commercial for “cold drops” where you put a drop on the back of your hand and lick it... should maybe not be shown for a while... lofl

"Don't touch your face"

China? What says you?

Nothing. As usual

I told y'all the secret to a healthy immune system

Chow hoop.

Reefers been quiet of late. I suspect he took my advice and now the old ladys letting him bog on the trough

Wife brought home take out last night.

Fortune cookies were empty.

Reposting ...

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:32 pm What is mind-boggling is that we saw what the Chinese had to do to contain the infection, and we're still unprepared. Well, at least in the States they are not taking it seriously except in NY/CA. Canada seems to be on top of it.

It's like someone said to me the other day that he "doesn't know if it's real". Really? Too many people are taken in by FB posts giving "perspective" by comparing to cancer deaths, traffic fatalities, etc. or duped by the low fatality rate compared with a typical flu, ignoring how contagious it is, that it can be spread by asymptomatic persons, and that the virus can survive on some surfaces for up to 9 days.

What's going to happen is that too many people will be infected too fast, the hospitals will be overwhelmed, and doctors will need to start deciding who gets a respirator and who doesn't. That's when the real panic will start. Nobody will be giving a shit about toilet paper anymore.

That is the whole point of containment; to slow the spread so that our healthcare system can handle the load. That means making testing free and accessible, ensuring employees can take time off work without fear of losing income or their job, and proactively shutting down large gatherings before the infected count rises. The US of A, with their for-profit unlimited price gouging healthcare model is completely fucked in this regard. People who don't have proper healthcare will just keep going to work and infecting everyone.

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:45 pm In case you're not aware, the American Hospital Association's current best guess projection is for 480,000 deaths in the US. They're probably guessing on the high side to be safe, but still ...

https://www.businessinsider.com/present ... ons-2020-3

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:53 pm South Korea stats are probably the most reliable and have a fairly large sample size.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/109 ... rus-cases/

This puts the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) at about 0.7%. So equal to a fairly deadly strain of flu, skewed towards the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:32 pm What's going to happen is that too many people will be infected too fast, the hospitals will be overwhelmed, and doctors will need to start deciding who gets a respirator and who doesn't. That's when the real panic will start. Nobody will be giving a shit about toilet paper anymore.

By the way, this is already happening in Italy RIGHT NOW!!! They are so overwhelmed that even doctors and nurses that have tested positive are still required to work, unless they have a cough or fever! Give it another 3-4 weeks and the US be in full-blown panic mode too. And you won't just be able to stay home for 2 weeks or 1 month till it all blows over. It will take several months. This is why people are buying multiple bulk packs of toilet paper!

If you have 90 minutes, watch Joe Rogan's interview with Michael Osterholm, though you don't have to wait long to hear the projection of 480,000 deaths in the US, and that in Italy they are "... deciding who to let die".



Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:53 pm South Korea stats are probably the most reliable and have a fairly large sample size.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/109 ... rus-cases/

This puts the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) at about 0.7%. So equal to a fairly deadly strain of flu, skewed towards the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

I believe the South Korea situation is the most relevant comparisson for Canada (and Sweden).
It's a modern, fairly well organized country that offers universal health care for its citizens.

China and Iran, two countries that been hit early on, differ a lot from us. A lot of the people there are malnourished and not as healthy as the general population in our countries. Pretty much everyone smokes. And they do not have as good health care.
Also, most people who get sick probably never contact the authorities, so the only ones included in their statistics are the ones so affected by the disease that they need hospital care. This pushes the mortality rate up.

So, in countries with generally good health, food readily available for all and universal health care, I think the numbers will be closer to the Korean ones than the 3.4 estimate the WHO has provided. The latter is probably more relevant for poor countries that lack universal health care.

The Swedish government just announced that they will reinstate paid sick leave from day one. For the last twenty years or so, we've only received sick pay from day two, which leads to a lot of people in low paying jobs showing up at work despite being sick, because they need every dollar they can get. By reinstating paid sick leave from day one, they hope to keep sick people away from the workplace.

Heck, I hear even a conservative like Pence is now arguing that paid sick leave might be a good idea to prevent the spread of disease!

Yes, paid sick leave is a good idea and necessary, but it's a mitigation that is already too late in the disease cycle.

What's also needed is (1) massive amounts of testing to understand the extent of infection, and (2) limited social contact, large gatherings, etc. where we know there is infection, as in the 3-4 days of incubation before you start showing symptoms, you are already spreading the infection. This is why it spreads so quickly.

Well I decided I'm going on my trip! Someone has to stand up to this virus. And the Canucks are not winning the Cup this year anyway

Hey Per, I will be in Sweden!

Hockey Widow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:24 am Well I decided I'm going on my trip! Someone has to stand up to this virus. And the Canucks are not winning the Cup this year anyway

Hey Per, I will be in Sweden!

Good for you. You can’t let fear dictate your life