Curmudgeon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:20 pm
Strangelove wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:52 pm
Curmudgeon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:47 pm
Now there are comments floating around about an internal cap for this offseason after only recently the team stating they were going to be a cap team and then going all in on the short and long term OEL big ticket. It doesn't add up
and only substantiates the appearances of having no plan and not being prepared.
It doesn't add up because:
The "comments floating around about an internal cap" are 100% Grade A bullshit.
Canucks management does
have a plan, Canucks management was
Yeah it doesn't add up but maybe go on Twitter and tell this guy. lol
https://twitter.com/SatiarShah/status/1 ... 4622024704
I guess we'll see about their plan and preparation then. Hope you're right.
What adds up is that the Canucks don't want Toffoli and Tanev as part of their team moving forward at that price.
For reasons I am not going to explain at length in a UWS style post 2019-20 Stecher + Gaudette + Motte + Virtanen AAV should approximately equal 2020-21 Gaudette + Motte + Virtanen AAVs. Holtby costs the Canucks another $634K on top of last year -- but that's chump change considering they are getting a goalie of Markstrom's caliber and Marky is making a lot more. So for a little more money, you are down a defenseman.
Tanev and Toffoli didn't get raises; they are making what they made last year (Toffoli a little less, Tanev barely more). Without them, the Canucks are down another defenseman and a forward.
So could the Canucks have signed both? Probably, presuming Ferland to the IR. But did they want to sign them at that price? Absolutely not if those guys wanted term. Toffoli is another option on a team that doesn't suffer for goal scoring without him. The "need" to resign Toffoli has never existed. And you don't buy luxury when belts are getting tightened.
Tanev is a steady-but-declining defensemen with spotted durability history and who is a far better bet for the next couple years than projecting further. I'd have welcomed him back on a short deal; I don't think he's worth 4 @ 4.5 with a NMC (though I suspect the Canucks might have had him for less).
So where does this leave the Canucks? (1) They don't have to replace a RW, there are internal options and (2) they need at least 2 defensemen. Let's presume a couple of things. One -- the Canucks will fill one defensemen slot with an internal promotion -- Juolevi, Rafferty, or (less likely) Chatfield, Brisebois, or Rathbone. Woo is probably a couple more years out. Good news here, there are not only options, but there are options if choice #1 coming out of camp doesn't look hot. Two -- Fantenberg style 6/7 defensemen will be available at or near league minimum all the way until camps start (and maybe later). It is also possible to start with two rookies. And what does this mean? It means that Canucks really need to worry about adding a single
player to the organization -- a right shot defensemen.
Now tell me, if that's really the basic need that you have, would you rather fill it with Tanev, Tanev's salary, or Tanev's salary PLUS most of Toffoli's to make something happen? Moreover, isn't the Canucks largest need a top 4 defensemen? Is Tanev that guy for you? With the two salaries, a top 4 is a real possibility.
THIS is the plan, and I bet it has been all along.
But UWS, all of those UFA defensemen got taken, and some of them were better than Tanev and could have been made to fit inside them cap. Everyone but AP could have been made to fit, even Krug. Sure, but even with a depressed market, you are buying at the peak of the market and you are getting age. The Canucks have Myers on a long term deal; that's their luxury buy-high; they can't afford another to not work out.
So I think that what the Canucks are doing is biding their time for the right RFA or cap strapped team to come looking for help after their RFA negotiations didn't work out so well. Every year players are available in this posture (or a year out from UFA). Every year the best time to find these players is after the hub bub of the free agent frenzy.
Well, who's on that list? Well over half the league is on a list of teams that are in far worse situation that the Canucks in terms of the cap (external or internal) and who will be trying to get rid of contracts as they work through RFAs. My favorite target of the moment is Ryan Pulock. I am having trouble seeing how they can fit in both Barzal and Pulock and another defensemen to be the #7. And if a target doesn't work for a potential long term signing, there are plenty of older players who are at or slightly above Tanev's caliber who can be counted on for a season or two as a bridge and whose salary and term won't impede the Pettersson and Hughes signings. And what's on the end of that bridge? At least two more years of flat-cap depressed UFA markets if the internal development is insufficient.
Bottom line -- the Canucks haven't upgraded this offseason, yet. But if they were to upgrade their top 4, what's happening now is counterintuitively the best way to go about it.