Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

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Ronning's Ghost
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:22 pm If they make the playoffs next season is he a superior GM in your mind Cliffy?
It depends on whether they "look good" once they get there. I'll stick with my earlier position
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11227&hilit=fucking&start=225
Ronning's Ghost wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:23 pm
For my own part, (as previously offered), I believe that six playoff victories in 2019, of whatever sort, would indicate success. I also believe that zero playoff victories would indicate failure.
Also
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10923&p=257033&hili ... ce#p257033
Ronning's Ghost wrote: Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:10 am Stanley Cup by 2020 => genius !

Stanley Cup after 2020 => competent GM who benefited from the the patience and trust of ownership.

ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm The Doc's prediction has been a 5 to 6-year rebuild.
That's not the way Doc describes the countdown above.
Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm
I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" back in 2015.

(in 2016 it was "... 2-3 years", in 2017 it was "... 1-2 years", now it is 0-1 years)
3 years from 2016 is 2019.
ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm Next year is year-5 of the Benning Regime. And if Benning pulls it off and gets the Canucks back in the playoffs, he is a genius.
Fair enough. And if he doesn't ?
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Strangelove »

Ronning's Ghost wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:51 pm
ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm Next year is year-5 of the Benning Regime. And if Benning pulls it off and gets the Canucks back in the playoffs, he is a genius.
Fair enough. And it he doesn't ?
Near-genius? :P

Genius plagued by bad luck? :mrgreen:
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:55 pm
Ronning's Ghost wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:51 pm
ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm Next year is year-5 of the Benning Regime. And if Benning pulls it off and gets the Canucks back in the playoffs, he is a genius.
Fair enough. And it he doesn't ?
Near-genius? :P

Genius plagued by bad luck? :mrgreen:
NHL drafting has a very high stochastic component, and so is a tough peg on which to hang one's genius hat.

I join Blob in wishing that Benning had given himself a larger sample size. Or that he (as he may yet) increases his sample size in the 2018 draft.
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Post by Blob Mckenzie »

What bad luck?
“I don’t care what you and some other poster were talking about”
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Post by Strangelove »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:44 pm What bad luck?
I'm suggesting that if the Canucks don't make the playoffs next season it would be due to bad luck, rather than a lack of genius. :mrgreen:
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Post by Blob Mckenzie »

Is that why they missed this season?

Bad luck?
“I don’t care what you and some other poster were talking about”
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by 2Fingers »

Ronning's Ghost wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 1:40 pm
Reefer2 wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 8:43 am What was Strange BOLD? You mean saying they will make the playoffs next year or something like that. Really need to get my memory checked.
Sarcasm ?

Yes - just having some summer time fun.
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Post by Strangelove »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 4:19 pm Is that why they missed this season?

Bad luck?
Umm wot? :look:
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Post by 2Fingers »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:44 pm What bad luck?
They call it bad luck when the genius did not make the right pick, the UFAs signed did not pan out and the team is a couple years behind schedule because the genius didnt have a plan.
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Post by SKYO »

copy/pasted via hf
brent burns and a second was basically traded for charlie coyle and a first
dustin byfulin an crap was traded for a first a second and crap
ryan suter was an ufa
dion phaneuf has been almost given away for free
mark giordano was on the scrap heap
kevin shatttenkirk was an ufa
keith yandle was an ufa
mike green is an ufa
johnny boychuk moved for draft picks
matt nishkanen was an ufa
dougie hamilton moved for picks
andrej sekera was an ufa
jeff petry was moved for picks
justin schultz was on the scrap heap
brooks orpik moved for pics

despite what we keep being told, the truth is... if a team is simply willing to pay the high cap hit these dmen demand... its really not that hard to add a dman like the guys ive named here. obviously some of the guys on this list are now on their last legs... but they were still valuable when picked up. its cap hit that makes it difficult to get these guys. most teams dont want to pay dmen this much money. and when these guys are moved its usually because of cap hit
For cap reason's or a low budget team having trouble re-signing their dman, that's when it's time to strike to get that top dman and move a 1st +.
Last edited by SKYO on Thu May 17, 2018 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Can the Canucks just win a Cup within the next 5 years.
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Post by Strangelove »

Reefer2 wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 4:31 pm
Blob Mckenzie wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:44 pm What bad luck?
They call it bad luck when the genius did not make the right pick, the UFAs signed did not pan out and the team is a couple years behind schedule because the genius didnt have a plan.
Who are... "they"? :look:

BTW it's not "summer time" yet, so stop your strawman building and get back to work!
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Post by ESQ »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 4:19 pm Is that why they missed this season?

Bad luck?
No, but I think bad luck played a role in the Canucks not finishing in the 80-ish point range.

Despite missing 6 of their top-9 forwards and half their top-4D for 30ish games, they managed to climb 4 spots in the standings. I think with a bit of luck, even just Boeser finishing the season, we would have seen clearer evidence of improvement by the team.

Everything had to go right for the Canucks to make the playoffs. Instead, in true Canuck fashion, everything went wrong and they still improved on the last 2 years.

If they don't make the playoffs next year, but jump another 4 spots in the standings, that would put them closer to but still outside the playoff picture. That would be a fine outcome and is a reasonably likely prediction.

I don't think the Canucks will have the huge jump in the standings that we saw with the Oilers post-McDavid draft (going from 70 points to 103 pts), or the leaves post-Matthews draft (69 points to 95 points). Maybe something more like the Jets post-Laine draft (78 points to 87 points to playoffs).

If the Canucks regress next season, I'll consider factors outside of Benning's control in considering my opinion of his performance - particularly injuries and whether Peterssen makes the jump. If the team stays healthy and Peterssen has a minimal impact at the NHL level, then I'll be concerned.
Ronning's Ghost wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:51 pm
ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm Next year is year-5 of the Benning Regime. And if Benning pulls it off and gets the Canucks back in the playoffs, he is a genius.
Fair enough. And it he doesn't ?
If the team shows continued improvement, I think its evidence of genius, but is more controvertible.
Ronning's Ghost wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:23 pm
That's not the way Doc describes the countdown above.
Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm
I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" back in 2015.

(in 2016 it was "... 2-3 years", in 2017 it was "... 1-2 years", now it is 0-1 years)
3 years from 2016 is 2019.
2015/16 - 3-4 years prediction is made - takes us to 2018/19 season or 2019/20 season.

Doc clarified this as well in his post:
Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:22 pm I believe I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" in November/December 2015 when Canucks were struggling.
I personally think the odds of Doc's shorter timeline (i.e., making playoffs next year, 2018/19) has been made much more unlikely by the retirement of the Sedins. I do believe the acquisition of one great player at either center, defence, or goaltending could push the current squad into the playoffs next season, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen.
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Post by Ronning's Ghost »

ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 5:03 pm
Ronning's Ghost wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:23 pm
That's not the way Doc describes the countdown above.
Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm
I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" back in 2015.

(in 2016 it was "... 2-3 years", in 2017 it was "... 1-2 years", now it is 0-1 years)
3 years from 2016 is 2019.
2015/16 - 3-4 years prediction is made - takes us to 2018/19 season or 2019/20 season.

Doc clarified this as well in his post:
Strangelove wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 2:22 pm I believe I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" in November/December 2015 when Canucks were struggling.
I don't want to imply I think it's important, because as I said, it's really just about that rate of progress that should be expected, but you (and my badly managed OCD) made me look it up.

The earliest version I could find of "Try to focus on 3 /4 years from now" was here:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10712&p=236423&hili ... on#p236423

Since it was written in July of 2015, I would gloss that as including the 2015/16 season as one of the seasons "from now". Considering the alternative interpretation of going by calendar years, while I'm sure people on this board will be discussing the GM's performance on free agent day in 2019, we won't have much to focus on in terms of the Canucks' on ice performance in July 2019.
Blob Mckenzie wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 3:44 pm What bad luck?
The Canucks could certainly have enjoyed better luck at the draft lottery. And while we emphasize the skill component, it is widely agreed that there is a lot of luck involved in drafting 18 year-olds, too. The Canucks could have been luckier in their educated guesses about future NHL performance from junior players.

Still, I maintain that, while adverse fortune may stymie a merely competent, or even brilliant GM, it would not interfere with the vision of a genius.
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Post by Ronning's Ghost »

ESQ wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 5:03 pm
Despite missing 6 of their top-9 forwards and half their top-4D for 30ish games, they managed to climb 4 spots in the standings. I think with a bit of luck, even just Boeser finishing the season, we would have seen clearer evidence of improvement by the team.
I'd also like to reiterate that while there is certainly a luck component to injuries, in my opinion many people on this board tend to overstate the luck component, and undervalue durability as an athletic attribute in a contact sport. I consider their resistance to injury in the face of relentless abuse to be a significant factor in the Sedins' greatness.
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Post by Strangelove »

Ronning's Ghost wrote: Thu May 17, 2018 6:59 pm I don't want to imply I think it's important, because as I said, it's really just about that rate of progress that should be expected, but you (and my badly managed OCD) made me look it up.

The earliest version I could find of "Try to focus on 3 /4 years from now" was here:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10712&p=236423&hili ... on#p236423
Thanks Clifford for showing I started the "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" bit on July 1, 2015.

Moreover, thanks for displaying someone has a worse OCD problem than yours truly. :D

"The Canucks are being held hostage at the whim of a madman" lol y'gotta love me.
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