Blob Mckenzie wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 4:19 pm
Is that why they missed this season?
Bad luck?
No, but I think bad luck played a role in the Canucks not finishing in the 80-ish point range.
Despite missing 6 of their top-9 forwards and half their top-4D for 30ish games, they managed to climb 4 spots in the standings. I think with a bit of luck, even just Boeser finishing the season, we would have seen clearer evidence of improvement by the team.
Everything had to go right for the Canucks to make the playoffs. Instead, in true Canuck fashion, everything went wrong and they still improved on the last 2 years.
If they don't make the playoffs next year, but jump another 4 spots in the standings, that would put them closer to but still outside the playoff picture. That would be a fine outcome and is a reasonably likely prediction.
I don't think the Canucks will have the huge jump in the standings that we saw with the Oilers post-McDavid draft (going from 70 points to 103 pts), or the leaves post-Matthews draft (69 points to 95 points). Maybe something more like the Jets post-Laine draft (78 points to 87 points to playoffs).
If the Canucks regress next season, I'll consider factors outside of Benning's control in considering my opinion of his performance - particularly injuries and whether Peterssen makes the jump. If the team stays healthy and Peterssen has a minimal impact at the NHL level, then I'll be concerned.
Ronning's Ghost wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 2:51 pm
ESQ wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm
Next year is year-5 of the Benning Regime. And if Benning pulls it off and gets the Canucks back in the playoffs, he is a genius.
Fair enough. And it he doesn't ?
If the team shows continued improvement, I think its evidence of genius, but is more controvertible.
Ronning's Ghost wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:23 pm
That's not the way Doc describes the countdown above.
Strangelove wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm
I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" back in 2015.
(in 2016 it was "... 2-3 years", in 2017 it was "... 1-2 years", now it is 0-1 years)
3 years from 2016 is 2019.
2015/16 - 3-4 years prediction is made - takes us to 2018/19 season or 2019/20 season.
Doc clarified this as well in his post:
Strangelove wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 2:22 pm
I believe I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" in
November/December 2015 when Canucks were struggling.
I personally think the odds of Doc's shorter timeline (i.e., making playoffs next year, 2018/19) has been made much more unlikely by the retirement of the Sedins. I do believe the acquisition of one great player at either center, defence, or goaltending could push the current squad into the playoffs next season, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen.