2017 Canucks UFA signings

[Strangelove]

I'm going to go with $6.5M X 8 with an NTC for the first 6 years.

He won't qualify for a NTC until he's played 7 seasons or is 27 IIRC?!?

So it can be added once he qualifies for one but not in the first few years.

oopsie okay then I'm going to go with $6.5M X 8 with an NTC for the last 4 years.

[Meds]

This may seem outlandish, but if I'm Bo's agent, and I'm negotiating his second contract, then I'm looking squarely at the contract history of Jonathan Toews.

Toews went back to college for a year after being drafted.

Bo went back to junior for a year.

The first thing after this to remember that Toews stepped onto a team that had already bottomed out and were rebuilding around a very strong, young, group featuring himself, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, and Ladd. Guys like Hjalmerson, Byfuglien, and Barker (who would bust), already in the mix.

Horvat joined a franchise in denial who were well into their decline, and not ready to admit it was time to rebuild. Bo was the first bright spot in the Canucks restocking of the prospect cupboards.

Season 1

Toews put up 54 points in 64 games during his rookie season playing in the top 6 with guys like Kane, Sharp, or Lang.

Bo put up 25 points in 68 games while playing on the 4th line with guys like Derek Dorsett and Ronald Kenins.

In the playoffs Toews, and the rest of the Blackhawks, watched from home.

Horvat tied for 1st on the team in scoring with 4 points in 6 games and was the best looking Canuck on the ice.

Season 2

Toews: 80 games and 69 points on the top line with Havlat, Kane, Versteeg, and Sharp. Good for 3rd on the team.

Horvat: 82 games and 40 points in the bottom 6 in primarily defensive zone starts. Good for 3rd on the team.

Toews rips it up in the playoffs with a 3rd round exit. But he proves he's a playoff leader like few others.

Horvat watches from home with the rest of the Canucks.

Season 3

Toews: 76 games and 68 points on the top line of an insanely good team. Good for 3rd on the team.

Horvat: 81 games and 52 points on the 2nd/3rd line playing with middling forwards. Good for 1st on the team.

Toews then tears it up and wins a Cup and the Conn Smythe.

Bo watched from home again.

Toews would go on to win 2 more cups, a Selke, and a Messier award. While his personal performance has remained relatively steady, albeit with a slight drop in production, his team is beginning to show signs of slowing down as they are forced to shed salary to afford their core players. He's still a top player though.

After his ELC Toews would sign a 5 year deal worth $6.3M. He didn't lock up for the maximum term, he took himself to free agency, or within a year of it I think. During that time his performance, and the team's success, rewarded him with a monster contract.

Now as an agent, I'm saying both of these guys play a 200 foot game, they both elevate their play as the season progresses, and they both find an extra gear in the playoffs (limited sample size for Horvat though I realize). And while I would not be trying to sell the Canucks on the line that Bo is as good as Toews, he's one tier below him IMO, I would be pointing out that Horvat has had far poorer linemate support, and his coach has been a questionable decision maker, especially when compared to Joel Q. But with Benning having nicely begun to fill up the prospect pool with some potential talent, and the team finally admitting that it's time to rebuild, I would be negotiating for a shorter term. No matter what the team wants, I would be saying $5M for 3-4 years, and I would even take a bit less to get the 4 years as that would give Bo 7 years in the league and UFA status. As an agent it would be foolish to do anything less for a client. Unless the Canucks are coming in with 8 years and $7.5M, you don't sign long term with this franchise.

[Blob Mckenzie]

Yep if I'm Horvat I don't sign longer than 4 or 5 years. Make some good money and also give yourself an out if this garbage fire continues long term.

[RoyalDude]

Even though we had to sacrifice the games best elite young goaltender to get Bo, I'm happy the trade has worked out for both teams. Throw the whole bank account at Bo, Jonathan Drouin money

[micky107]

Even though we had to sacrifice the games best elite young goaltender to get Bo, I'm happy the trade has worked out for both teams. Throw the whole bank account at Bo, Jonathan Drouin money

Give him something to wipe the egg

Just buggin ya Dude, havin fun.

[Island Nucklehead]

3 years and $15M seems about right as a bridge deal.

[Blob Mckenzie]

I still see him signing a four year deal. Four years for 20 million takes him to UFA.

[RoyalDude]

6 years - $33 million

Corey Schneider signed a 7 year $42 million with the Devils. We don't want anyone to get the sense the Devils won the trade. Must be comparable

[ESQ]

This may seem outlandish, but if I'm Bo's agent, and I'm negotiating his second contract, then I'm looking squarely at the contract history of Jonathan Toews.

Very interesting post, and it got me thinking.

On the plus side for contract negotiation, Bo is still about 20 points and a Cup and Conn Smythe back of Toews at the end of his ELC.

Toews got paid after his 3rd Cup and 8th year. I predict that Toews' $10.5 million contract is the end of the Hawks dynasty. Since signing that deal, they have back-to-back first round exits, and a sweep this year.

Similarly, Kopitar's $9.5 mil contract is the end of the Kings dynasty. In the Kings case, they'd already missed the playoffs 2/3 years before the extension was signed.

The Penguins had a helluva time after signing Crosby and Malkin. They won their first cup with Malkin on his ELC. After they got their raises, it took them 7 years before they made it to the SCF again, and I'd argue that's only because they finally had key contributors on ELCs again (Murray, Sheary, Guentzel).

The final example of the mega-cap hit is Washington, and we all know how that's going.

So if Horvat is going to follow the Toews contract progression, its going to be key to delay his final UFA big-bucks contract as long as possible. If he'll only go 4 years to take him to UFA status, that could very well be the Canucks' window. I'd be willing to give up quite a bit on cap-hit to take him through the first couple of UFA years.

[Rocky Dennis]

This may seem outlandish, but if I'm Bo's agent, and I'm negotiating his second contract, then I'm looking squarely at the contract history of Jonathan Toews.

Very interesting post, and it got me thinking.

On the plus side for contract negotiation, Bo is still about 20 points and a Cup and Conn Smythe back of Toews at the end of his ELC.

Toews got paid after his 3rd Cup and 8th year. I predict that Toews' $10.5 million contract is the end of the Hawks dynasty. Since signing that deal, they have back-to-back first round exits, and a sweep this year.

Similarly, Kopitar's $9.5 mil contract is the end of the Kings dynasty. In the Kings case, they'd already missed the playoffs 2/3 years before the extension was signed.

The Penguins had a helluva time after signing Crosby and Malkin. They won their first cup with Malkin on his ELC. After they got their raises, it took them 7 years before they made it to the SCF again, and I'd argue that's only because they finally had key contributors on ELCs again (Murray, Sheary, Guentzel).

The final example of the mega-cap hit is Washington, and we all know how that's going.

So if Horvat is going to follow the Toews contract progression, its going to be key to delay his final UFA big-bucks contract as long as possible. If he'll only go 4 years to take him to UFA status, that could very well be the Canucks' window. I'd be willing to give up quite a bit on cap-hit to take him through the first couple of UFA years.

Good post. Funny you should bring it up because it's something i've given some thought to once mcdavid was extended. Not specifically regarding the ripple effect on other contracts in the league but moreso I was wondering, despite the penguins success the last two years, if we're entering an era where having generational talent(s) is less helpful and more of a handcuff for a team. At least when those megabuck deals kick in. In other words, will teams be better served filling the roster with a greater number of "2nd tier" star players eating up less cap versus one or two superstars taking up a disproportionate percentage of available cap space. It seems like u definitely have to strike early with those guys or have a solid GM who can juggle bodies/contracts as well as getting those quality players contributing on their elc's, like you mentioned.

[ESQ]

Yeah, I think McDavid's contract will either prove or disprove the player, as he's a far greater player than Kopitar/Kane/Toews.

But as great as he is, he has little bargaining power and could likely have been had for less through to his UFA years. If he'd taken, say, a 4x$8 mil contract (saving $4.5mil on the cap for the next 4 years), would he have gotten that much more than $12.5mil as a UFA? Maybe he'd have gotten $14-15mil, but they're trading $4.5mil of cap space for the next 4 years in order to save $1.5-2.5 mil from years 5-8 (and also not risk losing McD as a UFA, obviously).

Its not dissimilar from Tambellini locking up his 1st overalls to 6x$6 mil. He paid them as UFA 1st-liners, gained a couple years of their UFA status, but they never lived up to them and they are now causing cap difficulty.

[Island Nucklehead]

But as great as he is, he has little bargaining power and could likely have been had for less through to his UFA years. If he'd taken, say, a 4x$8 mil contract (saving $4.5mil on the cap for the next 4 years), would he have gotten that much more than $12.5mil as a UFA? Maybe he'd have gotten $14-15mil, but they're trading $4.5mil of cap space for the next 4 years in order to save $1.5-2.5 mil from years 5-8 (and also not risk losing McD as a UFA, obviously).

A four year deal takes him to 24, then he only has one max-term deal before he's past his prime. This way, he hits UFA at 28, where he can sign another max-term deal for even more money. He also makes $57,000,000 over those first four years...

McDavid camp played this perfectly. Leak the $13.5M per number, come in under it, have Oilers fans gushing about "taking a hometeam discount".

[ESQ]

McDavid camp played this perfectly. Leak the $13.5M per number, come in under it, have Oilers fans gushing about "taking a hometeam discount".

Oh for sure, I agree 100%, its a great deal for McDavid.

I think its a not-so-great deal for the Oilers. Its hard to flat-out call it a bad deal when they get the best player in the world out of it, but I agree with you, McDavid didn't do the Oilers any favours.

[Island Nucklehead]

McDavid camp played this perfectly. Leak the $13.5M per number, come in under it, have Oilers fans gushing about "taking a hometeam discount".

Oh for sure, I agree 100%, its a great deal for McDavid.

I think its a not-so-great deal for the Oilers. Its hard to flat-out call it a bad deal when they get the best player in the world out of it, but I agree with you, McDavid didn't do the Oilers any favours.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what Draisaitl gets. My guess is the Sekera, Lucic, and RNH deals ($17.5M combined) will start to feel pretty heavy as soon as McDavid's contract kicks in.

Looking at 2018-19, they have about $22M in cap space (prior to Draisaitl's deal), and only 12 players signed. If Nurse and Strome have decent seasons, cap hell comes quickly in Edmonton.

But yeah, not the worst problem to have, but they're going to need to be careful to manage that cap.

[damonberryman]

McDavid camp played this perfectly. Leak the $13.5M per number, come in under it, have Oilers fans gushing about "taking a hometeam discount".

Oh for sure, I agree 100%, its a great deal for McDavid.

I think its a not-so-great deal for the Oilers. Its hard to flat-out call it a bad deal when they get the best player in the world out of it, but I agree with you, McDavid didn't do the Oilers any favours.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what Draisaitl gets. My guess is the Sekera, Lucic, and RNH deals ($17.5M combined) will start to feel pretty heavy as soon as McDavid's contract kicks in.

Looking at 2018-19, they have about $22M in cap space (prior to Draisaitl's deal), and only 12 players signed. If Nurse and Strome have decent seasons, cap hell comes quickly in Edmonton.

But yeah, not the worst problem to have, but they're going to need to be careful to manage that cap.

Crosby is still the best on the planet