Post
by Meds » Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:27 am
This may seem outlandish, but if I'm Bo's agent, and I'm negotiating his second contract, then I'm looking squarely at the contract history of Jonathan Toews.
Toews went back to college for a year after being drafted.
Bo went back to junior for a year.
The first thing after this to remember that Toews stepped onto a team that had already bottomed out and were rebuilding around a very strong, young, group featuring himself, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, and Ladd. Guys like Hjalmerson, Byfuglien, and Barker (who would bust), already in the mix.
Horvat joined a franchise in denial who were well into their decline, and not ready to admit it was time to rebuild. Bo was the first bright spot in the Canucks restocking of the prospect cupboards.
Season 1
Toews put up 54 points in 64 games during his rookie season playing in the top 6 with guys like Kane, Sharp, or Lang.
Bo put up 25 points in 68 games while playing on the 4th line with guys like Derek Dorsett and Ronald Kenins.
In the playoffs Toews, and the rest of the Blackhawks, watched from home.
Horvat tied for 1st on the team in scoring with 4 points in 6 games and was the best looking Canuck on the ice.
Season 2
Toews: 80 games and 69 points on the top line with Havlat, Kane, Versteeg, and Sharp. Good for 3rd on the team.
Horvat: 82 games and 40 points in the bottom 6 in primarily defensive zone starts. Good for 3rd on the team.
Toews rips it up in the playoffs with a 3rd round exit. But he proves he's a playoff leader like few others.
Horvat watches from home with the rest of the Canucks.
Season 3
Toews: 76 games and 68 points on the top line of an insanely good team. Good for 3rd on the team.
Horvat: 81 games and 52 points on the 2nd/3rd line playing with middling forwards. Good for 1st on the team.
Toews then tears it up and wins a Cup and the Conn Smythe.
Bo watched from home again.
Toews would go on to win 2 more cups, a Selke, and a Messier award. While his personal performance has remained relatively steady, albeit with a slight drop in production, his team is beginning to show signs of slowing down as they are forced to shed salary to afford their core players. He's still a top player though.
After his ELC Toews would sign a 5 year deal worth $6.3M. He didn't lock up for the maximum term, he took himself to free agency, or within a year of it I think. During that time his performance, and the team's success, rewarded him with a monster contract.
Now as an agent, I'm saying both of these guys play a 200 foot game, they both elevate their play as the season progresses, and they both find an extra gear in the playoffs (limited sample size for Horvat though I realize). And while I would not be trying to sell the Canucks on the line that Bo is as good as Toews, he's one tier below him IMO, I would be pointing out that Horvat has had far poorer linemate support, and his coach has been a questionable decision maker, especially when compared to Joel Q. But with Benning having nicely begun to fill up the prospect pool with some potential talent, and the team finally admitting that it's time to rebuild, I would be negotiating for a shorter term. No matter what the team wants, I would be saying $5M for 3-4 years, and I would even take a bit less to get the 4 years as that would give Bo 7 years in the league and UFA status. As an agent it would be foolish to do anything less for a client. Unless the Canucks are coming in with 8 years and $7.5M, you don't sign long term with this franchise.