Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

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Ronning's Ghost
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Mëds wrote:
Hockey Widow wrote: I'll be the first to admit I don't understand analytics, don't want to either. I see the value in analysis but think some teams are going to far into the abyss.
Same here.

Weren't Bonino's numbers just brutal in his year with us?

Then he gets shipped to the Penguins and is playing behind Crosby and Malkin, and ends up having Kessel and Hagelin as linemates.....the Canucks sure missed the boat there, it's almost unfathomable that we didn't see the same player in blue and green the year before. Oh wait.....

And why didn't Sutter look like quite the same player that he did in Pittsburgh? (In the limited games we saw him in that is).
I think that eventually, someone will derive a statistical measure, or set of measures, of skater performance that is more consistent and reliable than the 'eye test' -- at least with respect purely hockey functions. It is an open question what such a measure would look like, and whether or not that has already happened. One of the limitations is that, as you alluded in the other thread, NHL hockey includes many games within the game (or even 'meta-games) that are even harder to quantify.
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Hockey Widow
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Hockey Widow »

Analytics can't measure leadership, character, experience, physical presence, heart, desire, will to win, off ice attitude and demeanour, preparation, commitment, personality, chemistry, etc, etc, etc. All of these intangibles get left behind.

Gudbranson is a good example. Under Tallon's leadership he was highly valued, re-signed for a year, talked about as a future captain. In come the analytics guys and he is the first player moved for what now seems like a below market return, albeit still a good return. Time will tell but I venture Gudbranson is exactly the type of guy we need, a younger more mobile Willie Mitchell type.

And then you have the Subban trade where the analytics were fully against the move but none of us really know the intangibles that made this a good deal for Montreal and all of the anylitics poo poo Weber.
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Ronning's Ghost
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Hockey Widow wrote:Analytics can't measure leadership, character, experience, physical presence, heart, desire, will to win, off ice attitude and demeanour, preparation, commitment, personality, chemistry, etc, etc, etc. All of these intangibles get left behind.
A suitable set of statistics would measure their effects, though.
Hockey Widow wrote:And then you have the Subban trade where the analytics were fully against the move but none of us really know the intangibles that made this a good deal for Montreal and all of the anylitics poo poo Weber.
I think it will be some time before we know whether or not this was a good trade for Montreal. Not saying it wasn't, but without so much as a single game played, I'd say it's too early to tell.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by 2Fingers »

Advance stats is just a tool and not sure how useful it really is. Coaches are becoming way to technical and not enough emotions and instinct used anymore.

I will say again advance stats are for sissy boys
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Mickey107 »

Reefer2 wrote:Advance stats is just a tool and not sure how useful it really is. Coaches are becoming way to technical and not enough emotions and instinct used anymore.

I will say again advance stats are for sissy boys
I remember back in the late 70s and early 80s, they thought they were on to something with trying to measure guy's
"bio-rhythms" to predict when somebody was gonna have a good night or an ugly one.
Seemed logical at the time but was just another heap of bullshit!
(just like the no sex before a game) YA, AS IF!!! :devil:
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Topper »

The problem with many users of advanced stats is that they ignore basic statistical checks before manipulating the data. It is laughable to see some of the things put out there. Statistics will tell a story, however many write the story first and develop the statistics after the fact.

Stats require patience to accumulate a data set, verify it and then spot trends. Trends are what people should look for, not absolutes.

The the advanced hockey stats I have looked at fall apart at the edge limits of the data sets.

If used properly, they can be a great tool when combined with knowledgeable observation.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Topper wrote:The problem with many users of advanced stats is that they ignore basic statistical checks before manipulating the data. It is laughable to see some of the things put out there. Statistics will tell a story, however many write the story first and develop the statistics after the fact.

Stats require patience to accumulate a data set, verify it and then spot trends. Trends are what people should look for, not absolutes.

The the advanced hockey stats I have looked at fall apart at the edge limits of the data sets.

If used properly, they can be a great tool when combined with knowledgeable observation.
And I suppose that's another limitation with this approach. What is the smallest number of minutes played that will generate statistics that will allow useful comparisons between player options ?
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by ESQ »

Hockey Widow wrote: Gudbranson is a good example. Under Tallon's leadership he was highly valued, re-signed for a year, talked about as a future captain. In come the analytics guys and he is the first player moved for what now seems like a below market return, albeit still a good return.
Hold the phones, NBC is reporting McCann's added 25 pounds this off-season!

Sounds like the good ol' Brent Sopel method.
Last edited by ESQ on Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Hockey Widow »

I don't think McCann was traded because Benning gave up on him. The plan all along was for him to beef up. Good for him showing a great attitude. I imagine he will have a terrific main camp, impress the hell out of people and make the Panthers line up. It's what happens in the three months following that, that will be telling.

I don't think McCann will be a bust. But as long as he remains a perimeter player and the longer he has deficits in is defensive game, he will remain full of potential. I like the kid. I wish him well. Of all the players Benning moved out he's the one that hurts a bit. As long as he doesn't become a Joe Sakic I'll be ok! :mrgreen:
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Mickey107 »

Hockey Widow wrote:I don't think McCann was traded because Benning gave up on him. The plan all along was for him to beef up. Good for him showing a great attitude. I imagine he will have a terrific main camp, impress the hell out of people and make the Panthers line up. It's what happens in the three months following that, that will be telling.

I don't think McCann will be a bust. But as long as he remains a perimeter player and the longer he has deficits in is defensive game, he will remain full of potential. I like the kid. I wish him well. Of all the players Benning moved out he's the one that hurts a bit. As long as he doesn't become a Joe Sakic I'll be ok! :mrgreen:
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Island Nucklehead »

25 pounds in 4 months eh? :lol: When do they start testing?
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Strangelove »

Island Nucklehead wrote:25 pounds in 4 months eh? :lol: When do they start testing?
Exactly what I was thinking! :lol:

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Hockey Widow »

Island Nucklehead wrote:25 pounds in 4 months eh? :lol: When do they start testing?

I have no problem adding 25 lbs in four months! But ya I hear ya. Mine ain't muscle.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Strangelove »

Hockey Widow wrote: I have no problem adding 25 lbs in four months! But ya I hear ya. Mine ain't muscle.
Just more of you to love baby! :blush:
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Topper »

Ronning's Ghost wrote: What is the smallest number of minutes played that will generate statistics that will allow useful comparisons between player options ?
Data population is a major issue, a couple of years ago I did a quick and dirty estimate that 2/3rds to 3/4s of a season may be needed to massage outliers from the data. You could also try using top and bottom cuts, but again, you need data to establish those.
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