Canucks News and Notes

Welcome to the main forum of our site. Anything and everything to do with the Vancouver Canucks is dicussed and debated here.

Moderator: Referees

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby dbr » Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:56 pm

To me it's clear Edler can more than deliver on his $5m cap hit - that's why he has trade value if the team wanted to change things up. If they don't he's definitely capable of a big year if the team can put him in a position to succeed.

As for HW's post I'll say if that's the plan and it doesn't work then I'd have no problem canning Gillis if the team disappoints this season. Going all in with the current group is a big risk and unless Corrado, Jensen and/or Gaunce can stick and really thrive next year you are basically hoping that a new coach gets vastly more out of this team than AV had of late.

I think it's possible but if I could I'd be hedging my bets. Hopefully Gillis can get substantial value for Luongo and that changes things a bit.
dbr
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2502
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2011 5:37 pm

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Lancer » Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:24 pm

dbr wrote:To me it's clear Edler can more than deliver on his $5m cap hit - that's why he has trade value if the team wanted to change things up. If they don't he's definitely capable of a big year if the team can put him in a position to succeed.

As for HW's post I'll say if that's the plan and it doesn't work then I'd have no problem canning Gillis if the team disappoints this season. Going all in with the current group is a big risk and unless Corrado, Jensen and/or Gaunce can stick and really thrive next year you are basically hoping that a new coach gets vastly more out of this team than AV had of late.

I think it's possible but if I could I'd be hedging my bets. Hopefully Gillis can get substantial value for Luongo and that changes things a bit.


Edler with a $5m hit is an easy sell to most of the league. No doubt he could deliver on his paycheque on this team. Question is whether we need that more than we need help up front. Luongo is gone - even if only for picks and prospects (maybe as a package for Florida's 1st? Just food for thought...) and that eases the cap situation a lot. I agree that if Ballard can't/won't be bought out, and won't/isn't traded then Edler will have to go if for no other reason than to clear cap.

As for Booth, I have no problem keeping him around because I still hold some optimism that we haven't seen all he has to give and he is the type of forward we need in terms of size and speed.

No disrespect to the Widow, but I'm guessing that Gillis is blowing smoke all over the place and keeping this very close to his chest (okay...maybe I'm hoping as much). If not, the guy deserves to be fired if he doesn't significantly change the core and the make-up of this team. Something's got to give because this team is not going to get it done - not even if Scotty Bowman was rejuvenated and put behind that bench.
Love the Sport. Love the Team.

Hate the League.
User avatar
Lancer
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Arnprior, Ontario

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Hockey Widow » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:17 pm

Lancer,

MG likes to keep the situation confused. I am convinced that most, if not all, leaks are deliberate. AS July 1 approached I expect more talk about our soon to have NTC players and their availability. I also expect to hear more and more how defence is coveted so there is a market for Ballard. I have no idea if its true or not. I would be shocked if we traded Ballard and got equal value for what we gave up though. At this point the cap space is the value added.

MG has said several times that the big changes may just be the insertion of more younger players in the lien up. That was the plan for last season but being a shortened season MG described it like a sprint and therefore he didn't see the younger players getting the chance they would have in a fuller season.

Maybe we see JS as a second line centre and Kesler moved to either the wing or drop back to 3rd line. Lappy won't be asked back and Manny is done so that opens up the door for Lain to try and secure the 4th line job.

I don't know what he has planned and I doubt he could really tell us either. We know we need to drop about 10 million and two players, Luongo and one more will accomplish that. So if we lose Luongo, Ballard, Lappy, Manny, Mayray, Roy we suddenly drop a ton of cap and make room for the kids. And in those loses, what have we really lost other than Luongo?
The only HW the Canucks need
User avatar
Hockey Widow
CC Legend
 
Posts: 3910
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:52 pm

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Rumsfeld » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:31 pm

There is absolutely no way we start the season with Schroeder AND Lain as two of our centers. Another center will be aquired in the summer.

The idea of Schroeder starting on the second line over Kesler is pretty ridiculous IMO. I don't really see NHL-level talent in him at this point, especially for a guy his size. I could see him being used as a winger and filling in at center when there are injuries.

I highly doubt Gillis' plan is just to drop players and make room for kids. I expect at least one top-six winger and a third-line center to be added.
Cowards die a thousand times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once.
User avatar
Rumsfeld
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2632
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:48 pm
Location: Pissed in the Canyon

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby herb » Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:34 pm

Rumsfeld wrote:I highly doubt Gillis' plan is just to drop players and make room for kids. I expect at least one top-six winger and a third-line center to be added.


Hard to guage what the plan is at this point, but if Gillis brings in a top 6 winger and 3rd line centre there isnt even room for Kassian, nevermind Schroeder. Looking at the numbers, I don't see this happening without moving out two roster players.
User avatar
herb
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2149
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2004 3:17 pm
Location: Mars

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby The_Pauser » Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:39 pm

If all this team does is stand pat and add a few of our prospects to the lineup, Gillis should be handed his walking papers at the end of next season once we fail again.
The_Pauser
CC 2nd Team All-Star
 
Posts: 338
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2006 10:21 pm
Location: Surrey, BC

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Rumsfeld » Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:45 pm

herb wrote:
Rumsfeld wrote:I highly doubt Gillis' plan is just to drop players and make room for kids. I expect at least one top-six winger and a third-line center to be added.


Hard to guage what the plan is at this point, but if Gillis brings in a top 6 winger and 3rd line centre there isnt even room for Kassian, nevermind Schroeder. Looking at the numbers, I don't see this happening without moving out two roster players.


You'd only need to move out one... Booth or Burrows. I'd be peachy with moving both. You really think Gillis plans to go into next season with the same top six?

And that's assuming Kassian makes the top six, which is far from a done deal.
Cowards die a thousand times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once.
User avatar
Rumsfeld
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2632
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:48 pm
Location: Pissed in the Canyon

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Lancer » Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:55 pm

Hockey Widow wrote:I would be shocked if we traded Ballard and got equal value for what we gave up though. At this point the cap space is the value added.


Agreed. A couple of mid-round picks and I'm sold.

Hockey Widow wrote:Maybe we see JS as a second line centre and Kesler moved to either the wing or drop back to 3rd line. Lappy won't be asked back and Manny is done so that opens up the door for Lain to try and secure the 4th line job.


I'd say it would be the other way around - Kesler at C with JS on wing. Even so, I cringe mightily. JS is not the centre we're looking for in the top 6 and if he isn't playing in the top 6, why keep him around? Considering his shoulder surgery, who's to say he'll even be ready? I see him in the minors or with a different organization come October.

Hockey Widow wrote:I don't know what he has planned and I doubt he could really tell us either. We know we need to drop about 10 million and two players, Luongo and one more will accomplish that. So if we lose Luongo, Ballard, Lappy, Manny, Mayray, Roy we suddenly drop a ton of cap and make room for the kids. And in those loses, what have we really lost other than Luongo?


As I said previously, a Luongo deal that lands Gillis an extra 1st round pick that gives him ammo to deal higher may be the best-case scenario. I'd take Lappy back as insurance in case Lain doesn't cut it as a 4th line C, and Gillis still needs somebody to take centre on the 3rd line.

Somebody's gotta go, and I don't/can't accept the replacement coming from within if Gillis is interested in keeping his job.
Love the Sport. Love the Team.

Hate the League.
User avatar
Lancer
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Arnprior, Ontario

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Hockey Widow » Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:02 pm

Its seems most fans see it the same way. Something more than inserting a few kids is needed but I just get the feeling that may be all we see this year. There isn't much on FA that we can afford and players that will be bought out, well, you have to ask yourself why? Do we want them? Perhaps the trade market will open up once the playoffs are done but I just get the feeling we won't see much of anything being done.

Frankly I'm ok with going with the kids, time to see what we've got. I don't see our current team as being able to win the Cup and I can't see MG re-building yet. So get the kids in, get some more picks and prospects for those that need to go and hope for the best.
The only HW the Canucks need
User avatar
Hockey Widow
CC Legend
 
Posts: 3910
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:52 pm

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Meds » Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:29 am

Right now it's the NTCs that are killing Gillis.

His defence is that he didn't know the cap was going to drop when he handed them out.....all except Edler's that is.

Regardless, if he makes a deal, and it moves out Burrows while we still see AirhEdler on the blueline, I'll be pretty hard pressed to watch next season. A package involving Edler and our first plus parts has the potential to get us into the top 3 on draft day. Keeping him is a stupid move if we can toughen up defensively and build up front for the future.
User avatar
Meds
CC Legend
 
Posts: 3324
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:50 pm

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby rikster » Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:28 am

I'm surprised anybody would think ownership will not use any and all options available in the new CBA...

Especially if they think about the damage that was done to the offices and hallways of Rogers Arena by ownership after game 7 in 2011...

The team is profitable at the current cap ceiling, because it is going down next year doesn't change that reality...The teams actual dollars paid out on contracts next year, including both buy outs, will be considerably less than what the team has been paying out since the Luongo deal was signed....

And the caps dip down next season is likely a one year dip with it rising again starting the year after next...

Which is relevant when thinking about the Luongo situation....

The NHL did the Canucks no favours with some of the changes in the new CBA, but what they did do to help the organization was to keep the cap ceiling floor ....

I've heard that Gillis has a tentative deal in place that their excited about and will include a contract that will be bought out, and while I haven't heard who the trading partner is, the McKenzie rumour floated earlier this week involving the Islanders made sense because it involved a cap floor team....

I see the Luongo deal in two parts and I see him having more value to a cap floor team than a cap ceiling team....For the next 5 years his actual dollars paid are comparable to the likes of Fleury and Ward and below the likes of Rinne and Bryzgalov...

His final 4 years see his actual dollars paid out drop to near the league minimum while retaining its cap hit....

So, for a team which struggles to turn black ink off the ice and is required to spend to the cap floor those final 4 years, which are the ones the hockey world is mocking, will have real value to some teams much like the Thomas contract had real value to the Islanders this year...

Much of the talk has been that the Panthers are a good bet to trade for Luongo, they make sense given that they struggle to turn an operating profit and they have a young, high end goalie prospect in Markstrom...

Luongo takes over the nets for the next 4 to 5 years, after which he either retires or moves into a back up role where his actual dollars paid are in line with his with his reduced on ice value....

The Panthers can either keep Markstrom to eventually take over the starters job or they can deal him for other assets....

Back to the Islanders rumour, what is interesting about that rumour is that it's Long Island which is another way of saying that Luongo is now willing to go to any destination willing to take him....

Take care....
rikster
MVP
MVP
 
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:41 am

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby herb » Fri Jun 07, 2013 8:41 am

Rumsfeld wrote:You'd only need to move out one... Booth or Burrows. I'd be peachy with moving both. You really think Gillis plans to go into next season with the same top six?

And that's assuming Kassian makes the top six, which is far from a done deal.


I don't think that should be the plan, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens given Gillis' comments lately about giving the kids more of a chance. The UFA group is also very weak, and it's not like we have a ton of assets that we can really afford to move or that have the kind of return we need. Shipping out more youngsters (maybe Schroeder) or draft picks has to be a no go at this point.

The situation right now is one where Edler and Burrows have NTCs coming into effect in a few weeks. I think management needs to see what these guys are worth. That's just due diligence, and if a trade would make the team better, go for it.

Reality is that major trades are relatively rare in today's NHL, and Gillis has handed out a shitload of no trade and no movement clauses. He has sold a lot of the core guys on his vision and many have given "home town" discounts on long term contracts in order to remain here. I don't know if he has the balls to trade some of these guys...

Personally, I'd be fine with moving Booth and/or Burrows if it meant picking up somebody who could help.

My concern is that if we go into next season with the same forward lineup, there ain't a whole lot of space for youngsters like Schroeder, Kassian, Gaunce, Jensen or even guys like Lain or Archibald. I think one of the coaching staff's number one priorities needs to be making Kassian a successful top six guy.
User avatar
herb
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2149
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2004 3:17 pm
Location: Mars

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby sagebrush » Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:17 am

rikster wrote:.. I see the Luongo deal in two parts and I see him having more value to a cap floor team than a cap ceiling team....


The media has provided opposing opinions on the Luongo buy out option. So I tried to take an unbiased look at it.

Businessmen seek maximum return on investment. Aquaman's bean counters would compare the revenue likely to be gained from having more cap space available, vs the Luongo buy out cost.

The Cap Advantage Recapture provision of the 2013 CBA means the Luongo contract will cost the Canucks $2,476,667 of cap space for three years, if they trade him this summer, & if he retires at 40. More, if he plays here longer.
http://thehockeyguys.net/roberto-luongo ... continues/

According to Forbs (2012) the Canucks earned 143M$ and incurred 113M$ operating expenses. They also spent 73M$ on player salary. If success is directly proportional to cap spent (I know, a wild assumption), & revenue is directly proportional to success (another simplification for perspective), the Canucks gross return on operating expenses is 1.27, & net return was 0.27.

If non-player salary costs are fixed (40M$), then gross return on player salary is 1.96. So the 3 year return on the cap to be saved by buying Luongo out would be 2.5M$ x 3 x 1.96 = 14.7M$. Meanwhile, the cost of buying out Luongo is 27M$.
http://vansunsportsblogs.com/2013/01/07 ... to-luongo/

Conclusion: Trading with a team that doesn't want to spend to the cap is more likely than the Canucks buying Luongo out.

Of course, Canuck success may translate to indirect returns for Aquaman's other businesses. 12.3M$ worth ... seems unlikely.
User avatar
sagebrush
CC 1st Team All-Star
 
Posts: 805
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 12:36 pm

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby The_Pauser » Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:41 am

Hockey Widow wrote:Its seems most fans see it the same way. Something more than inserting a few kids is needed but I just get the feeling that may be all we see this year. There isn't much on FA that we can afford and players that will be bought out, well, you have to ask yourself why? Do we want them? Perhaps the trade market will open up once the playoffs are done but I just get the feeling we won't see much of anything being done.

Frankly I'm ok with going with the kids, time to see what we've got. I don't see our current team as being able to win the Cup and I can't see MG re-building yet. So get the kids in, get some more picks and prospects for those that need to go and hope for the best.


I am never okay with this. No professional sports GM (who wants to be successful) should EVER be in a position where they just "hope for the best." There has to be some logical plan, some progression, and some sort of expectation. In my mind there are really only two paths that make sense: 1) Contend for the Cup; 2) Reload so you can have a legitimate shot to contend for the Cup in the future. Just by inserting some of our own prospects onto largely the same team we saw last year we really aren't doing anything but wasting another year.

Gillis messed up big time last year, plain and simple. I still recall him talking about our offense as being good enough at the State of the Franchise event last summer, and I couldn't believe it. Low and behold our offense was our achillies heel once again. How many embarrassing playoff performances will it take before he actually gets it?

Either we go all in and try to contend (going to take a lot of moves to make this happen, so much that it's quite unlikely), or we begin rebuilding. That doesn't mean we necessarily have to blow everything up like I have proposed in some of my lineup proposals, but we need to do more than just inserting Schroeder, Gaunce and/or Lain.
The_Pauser
CC 2nd Team All-Star
 
Posts: 338
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2006 10:21 pm
Location: Surrey, BC

Re: Canucks News and Notes

Postby Eddy Punch Clock » Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:45 am

The_Pauser wrote:I am never okay with this.


Y'know, we're allowed to say fuck here.

Go on... try it...

Feels good man.
2011..... the one that got away.
User avatar
Eddy Punch Clock
CC 1st Team All-Star
 
Posts: 961
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:35 am
Location: The Wack

PreviousNext

Return to Canucks Corner Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Jovocop and 6 guests