Has AV's time come?

Welcome to the main forum of our site. Anything and everything to do with the Vancouver Canucks is dicussed and debated here.

Moderator: Referees

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Lancer » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:29 pm

AV also relies too much on cute set plays. They worked before but everybody in the conference has seen them more than a couple of times. No changes to the program though.

As I said elsewhere, this team's confidence is in pieces and all chuckles seems to say is 'they will work themselves out of this...' I guess Vigneault has given up on trying to motivate them or get their heads back to a place where they play to win instead of waiting to fail.

He's been a very successful coach, and no doubt will do well wherever he goes next, but it's time to move on.
Love the Sport. Love the Team.

Hate the League.
User avatar
Lancer
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1372
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Arnprior, Ontario

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Topper » Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:32 am

spooner wrote:A very good piece by Cam Charron:

http://canucksarmy.com/2013/3/19/in-pra ... ose-models

LOL

Coles notes, the team may suck, but their smoke and mirror numbers are great.
Over the Internet, you can pretend to be anyone or anything.

I'm amazed that so many people choose to be complete twats.
User avatar
Topper
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4988
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:11 pm
Location: Earth, most days.

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Vpete » Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:24 pm

So then in the 2011 SCF Cam would say Vancouver just didn't have goaltending?

More importantly a lot of his ideas get really muddled in his over-reaching desire and quest to convince you that his way is the only way of looking at stats.

I've had a conversation with Gabe Desjardin- I asked him if he ever tried tracking what happens off of rebounds? Nope too hard but he said, "there's nothing there."

Gabe pulls his data from what is currently tracked by the NHL as does Greg Sinclair in his super shot analysis. http://www.somekindofninja.com As do all the others. Try tracking something during a game like zone entries. What makes anyone's definition of a zone entry more precise and accurate?

Where I struggle with all of this is that these 'stats' guys want to use the numbers to say what is a good hockey player or as predictors of future play. It all happens after the fact which makes sense but they rarely ever go out on a limb- GAbe did last year with his prediction the Wild would collapse on goaltending.

None of these guys said that about the Blues- oh wait. What about the Sens this year? So all they have been able to do is predict goaltending regression. Thomas Drance has done an admiarably job of predicting goal scoring totals for the CAncuks but that's about it.

The problem is these guy all want James' Mirtle's job, or Bochford's or whatever and there aren't that many around. The stats stuff gives them a purpose and a place outside of what is already there. Funny thing is, it's like the new trade rumours from 2005. Smoke and Mirrors as Topper said.

I'll look forward when to when NHL teams use this: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9068903/the-toronto-raptors-sportvu-cameras-nba-analytical-revolution
Brick Top: Do you know what "nemesis" means? A righteous infliction of retribution manifested by an appropriate agent. Personified in this case by an 'orrible cunt... me.
Vpete
CC 2nd Team All-Star
 
Posts: 320
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Topper » Wed Mar 20, 2013 4:01 pm

What I found funny in the links Waffle posted the other day is that some of these folks are now realizing their numbers don't work so the are manipulating them with more made up numbers failing to realize that errors are compounded in calculation.

It comes down to realizing your black box doesn't work so you use a smoke and mirrors to try and fix it.

Some of these folks math is absolutely horrendous. Cam stands out in this regard.

I wish the few who use these numbers as a predictor would use them in the correct way, the most common thing I see is they predict to an average rather than to a trend line. That is either a poor understanding of stats or flat out laziness.

My problems with Corsi and Fenwick are mainly that they both fall apart at the edges of data and that they rank all shot equally.

http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/03/12/why-advanced-statistics-approaches-hockey-completely-wrong-but-still-gets-things-right/

How about the 1972 Summit Series as an "aha" moment when we all realized quality shots are more important than shots.

The reason these advance stats guys don't use scoring chances is because it takes much longer to generate a meaningful data population and because the population is lower, variability if higher.

I have to keep going back to the ground breaking work of Bill James showing a direct correlation between minor league stats and pro stats for baseball. When a metric for hockey does the same.........oh boy.
Over the Internet, you can pretend to be anyone or anything.

I'm amazed that so many people choose to be complete twats.
User avatar
Topper
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4988
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:11 pm
Location: Earth, most days.

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Vpete » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:29 am

Holy shit- I just read the comments underneath and the same guys who are proponents of Corsi are saying it's a bad idea to shoot because it gives up possession. So why do you track and action that gives up possession?

Anywhooooo....

Don't even get me started on 'scoring' chances. It's a shit-show of complete and total ambiguity.

http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/03/12/why-advanced-statistics-approaches-hockey-completely-wrong-but-still-gets-things-right/

This is what Cam Charron told me was the definition of a scoring chance. Go scratch your head around that for a bit.

So what is a chance? Any time the puck enters that area? Or any time a shot is made from that area?

Then consider shot quality. The stats guys don't want to touch that because it doesn't mean anything. I asked David Johnson the same thing about shot quality- is a good shot for the skater not a poor shot for the goalie?

Silence

Simply put I want to know if my keeper is letting in goals scored by quality chances for the skater or if he has trouble on poor chances for the skater. Because if my goalie is getting hammered I can adjust the defense or I can then work on the trouble spots with the goalie. However, the scoring chances being tracked are more on the 'possession' determines everything slant and I just can't go that far.

It's funny in basketball rebounds are counted in terms of defensive and offensive possession- wouldn't it make sense to do the same in hockey?
Brick Top: Do you know what "nemesis" means? A righteous infliction of retribution manifested by an appropriate agent. Personified in this case by an 'orrible cunt... me.
Vpete
CC 2nd Team All-Star
 
Posts: 320
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Topper » Thu Mar 21, 2013 9:23 am

Thanks Pete.

Following a link in the comments I got to the Super Shot page for Kenendy.
http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index.php?season=Regular&year=2011-2012&shots=For&team=Pittsburgh+Penguins&ice_player_name=Tyler+Kennedy&withPlayer=On+Ice&player_name=&goalie_name=&event=Shots+and+Goals&game=Home+and+Away&strength=Even&time=Regulation&search=Search
This is approaching what I have been saying. Now, add in missed and blocked shots (not including them is akin to only charting pitches in the strike zone at the exclusion of balls) and then have a ranking for shot quality. Contour that data and you really have something.

I know the shot quality data is not available, but it could be tracked by a teams scouting staff.

Now do this for college, major junior and the AHL and you definitely see what is happening with prospects. That is where the real value lies.
Over the Internet, you can pretend to be anyone or anything.

I'm amazed that so many people choose to be complete twats.
User avatar
Topper
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4988
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:11 pm
Location: Earth, most days.

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Waffle » Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:06 am

Thanks for the links. The articles and comments are very worthwhile reading.
Waffle
CC Veteran
 
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:38 am

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Topper » Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:16 am

The milking of these numbers is exactly what is implied by POD's comments about his self named stat and the Oilers.
Over the Internet, you can pretend to be anyone or anything.

I'm amazed that so many people choose to be complete twats.
User avatar
Topper
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4988
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:11 pm
Location: Earth, most days.

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Vpete » Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:32 am

At least Mirtle is getting to the nuts and bolts of the analytics thing.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/moneyball-ization-of-hockey-pays-off-for-penguins/article10122427/

It shows that VOILA- looking at stuff in detail and tracking things based on accurate data designed for specific conclusions can work. You're just not going to get that stuff from NHL stats sheets pulled into Excel
Brick Top: Do you know what "nemesis" means? A righteous infliction of retribution manifested by an appropriate agent. Personified in this case by an 'orrible cunt... me.
Vpete
CC 2nd Team All-Star
 
Posts: 320
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby RoyalDude » Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:53 am

Does AV get Coach of the Year nods this season for managing a winning record with a ramshackle, stale line-up that his useless superior - Mike 'Snoozey' Gillis put in place for him?
"I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? - Plastics." - The Graduate
User avatar
RoyalDude
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4570
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:36 pm
Location: Vancouver

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby BingoTough » Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:56 am

RoyalDude wrote:Does AV get Coach of the Year nods this season for managing a winning record with a ramshackle, stale line-up that his useless superior - Mike 'Snoozey' Gillis put in place for him?


If it looks like a troll and posts like a troll...

You are seriously boring.
I wonder if they'll disallow the whole game because of the distinct ass-kicking motion the Canucks used on the Kings? - Brian CC

Congratulations on the new job dave, try not to fuck it up this time eh? - UKCanuck
User avatar
BingoTough
CC 2nd Team All-Star
 
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:16 am

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby RoyalDude » Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:57 am

BingoTough wrote:
RoyalDude wrote:Does AV get Coach of the Year nods this season for managing a winning record with a ramshackle, stale line-up that his useless superior - Mike 'Snoozey' Gillis put in place for him?


If it looks like a troll and posts like a troll...



Ad Hominem Alert!
"I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? - Plastics." - The Graduate
User avatar
RoyalDude
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4570
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:36 pm
Location: Vancouver

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Tiger » Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:54 am

hmm so we blame the coach for the lousy production of the PP?? ( thought that was Newell Browns job? ) .. or
maybe we blame him for the lousy production of the #1 line?? ( Sedin's production is declining maybe because of aging and maybe because they are "One Trick Ponies" and unable to change the way they play? )
So lets examine with something other than rose collored glasses exactly what AV has to work with ( Yeah the Dude has a point )..
a #1 line that is producing at about 1/2 what it used to...
No #2 line.. Booth, Kesler both out..
So our goal production is coming from what are basically 2 #3 lines..
Our wins are dependent on winning low scoring games by playing great defensively and excellent goaltending..
AV has been coaching very well considering the talent on his team
" If you cant beat them in the alley - you can't beat them on the ice
User avatar
Tiger
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1060
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:09 pm

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby RoyalDude » Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:40 am

Tiger wrote:hmm so we blame the coach for the lousy production of the PP?? ( thought that was Newell Browns job? ) .. or
maybe we blame him for the lousy production of the #1 line?? ( Sedin's production is declining maybe because of aging and maybe because they are "One Trick Ponies" and unable to change the way they play? )
So lets examine with something other than rose collored glasses exactly what AV has to work with ( Yeah the Dude has a point )..
a #1 line that is producing at about 1/2 what it used to...
No #2 line.. Booth, Kesler both out..
So our goal production is coming from what are basically 2 #3 lines..
Our wins are dependent on winning low scoring games by playing great defensively and excellent goaltending..
AV has been coaching very well considering the talent on his team


Easy Big Fella, this post might put you in Troll category.
"I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? - Plastics." - The Graduate
User avatar
RoyalDude
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4570
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:36 pm
Location: Vancouver

Re: Has AV's time come?

Postby Jovocop » Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:20 am

Tiger wrote:hmm so we blame the coach for the lousy production of the PP?? ( thought that was Newell Browns job? ) ..


Isn't Newell Brown part of the coaching team? AV is in charge of the overall coaching. He could force Brown to change the PP units if things don't work out. With Edler out, Garrison has performed well in the first power play unit. With Edler back on Tuesday, I am almost 100% sure that Edler will be back on the first unit even though he is not performing.
User avatar
Jovocop
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1767
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2011 10:18 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Canucks Corner Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Brick Tamland, Google [Bot], Reefer2 and 5 guests