Looking Ahead - The Salary Cap

[Meds]

I was just having a quick look over at capgeek and thinking about what difficulties may be ahead for keeping this team competitve with the current roster.....if this belongs in another thread then move it. This OP will just be a quick breakdown on the numbers not much for opinion, but hopefully will generate some discussion.

Assuming that Luongo is traded and Tanev is re-signed for next year the Canucks look like this contract-wise on the back end.

Edler $5M
Bieksa $4.6M
Garrison $4.6M
Hamhuis $4.5M
Ballard $4.2M
Tanev $3M (might be being generous here, assuming he gets Alberts' money and then some as he has been so steady)

Schneider $4M

That's $29.9M committed to the starting 6 defenseman and goaltender.

That is actually a really good top 6, quite balanced, nobdoy that jumps out and makes someone say "Oh Shit, him again." But fairly well rounded. It is still a steep price to pay, almost 50% of the cap committed to 7 players. Not bad if you can really put the screws to the forwards who round out the bottom 6 up front. But it really limits what you can pay and what kind of quality you are going to get for injury relief on the blueline and a backup for Schneider.

In the forward department next year looks as follows.....

Sedin $6.1M
Sedin $6.1M
Kesler $5M
Burrows $4.5M
Booth $4.25M
Hansen $1.35M
Kassian $0.87M

So $28.17M committed to 7 forwards. That leaves 5 spaces to fill and only $5.93M to do it with. That also fails to consider a backup goaltender.

Expiring contracts.....

Malhotra $2.5M
Raymond $2.275M
Higgins $1.9M
Schroeder $1.025M
Lapierre $1.0M
Weise $0.615M
Ebbett $0.6M
Volpatti $0.6M

$10.515M total.

I've got my opinions on who I'd like to se re-signed, traded, bought out, whatever.....I'll get around to sharing them, just don't want to make an entire page out of the OP.

[ESQ]

Those expiring contracts really make things difficult and raise some tough questions:

Is Manny prepared to accept a contract reflecting his reduced role for 1-2 years? I think he might, considering that he left money on the table last time in exchange for a NTC, makes me believe he really wants to be here.

Has Lapierre earned a raise? I have to think so, especially considering how much he has rehabilitated his image as a locker room cancer. No way does he get a raise from the Canucks I reckon.

Raymond...I have always believed Raymond has a big stats year in him, like an Alex Tanguay - Raymond will have a year of 75+ points, but not consistently. Still he's got the 4th most points with 3rd line minutes.

Basically it looks possible that the entire 3rd line walks away. The good news is the Canucks might have the farm depth to put together a 3rd line, but that's a pretty big gamble.

I expect it will be a buyer's market this off-season for 2nd/3rd liners, as a lot of teams let a lot of players go to UFA to get under the reduced cap.

[Zamboni Driver]

I was just having a quick look over at capgeek and thinking about what difficulties may be ahead for keeping this team competitve with the current roster.....if this belongs in another thread then move it. This OP will just be a quick breakdown on the numbers not much for opinion, but hopefully will generate some discussion.

Assuming that Luongo is traded and Tanev is re-signed for next year the Canucks look like this contract-wise on the back end.

Edler $5M
Bieksa $4.6M
Garrison $4.6M
Hamhuis $4.5M
Ballard $4.2M
Tanev $3M (might be being generous here, assuming he gets Alberts' money and then some as he has been so steady)

Schneider $4M

That's $29.9M committed to the starting 6 defenseman and goaltender.

That is actually a really good top 6, quite balanced, nobdoy that jumps out and makes someone say "Oh Shit, him again." But fairly well rounded. It is still a steep price to pay, almost 50% of the cap committed to 7 players. Not bad if you can really put the screws to the forwards who round out the bottom 6 up front. But it really limits what you can pay and what kind of quality you are going to get for injury relief on the blueline and a backup for Schneider.

In the forward department next year looks as follows.....

Sedin $6.1M
Sedin $6.1M
Kesler $5M
Burrows $4.5M
Booth $4.25M
Hansen $1.35M
Kassian $0.87M

So $28.17M committed to 7 forwards. That leaves 5 spaces to fill and only $5.93M to do it with. That also fails to consider a backup goaltender.

Expiring contracts.....

Malhotra $2.5M
Raymond $2.275M
Higgins $1.9M
Schroeder $1.025M
Lapierre $1.0M
Weise $0.615M


Ebbett $0.6M
Volpatti $0.6M

$10.515M total.

I've got my opinions on who I'd like to se re-signed, traded, bought out, whatever.....I'll get around to sharing them, just don't want to make an entire page out of the OP.

Booth get bought out or traded, Tanev gets the Vancouver "Haircut" and signs a year or 2 for about 2.2 mil.

Top 6 on your list get resigned with a small raise, except for Malhotra, we could keep him for about 1.2 mil as a faceoff specialist/utility player unless there is a better option to be traded or on the farm

[Island Nucklehead]

Edler $5M
Bieksa $4.6M
Garrison $4.6M
Hamhuis $4.5M
Ballard $4.2M
Tanev $3M (might be being generous here, assuming he gets Alberts' money and then some as he has been so steady)

Schneider $4M

I don't think Tanev gets anywhere near that much. More than PK Subban? Nah, no way. Tanev has zero leverage. I'd give him 2 years, $2.5M tops, or he'll sit. Doubt he even gets consideration for an offer sheet.

I think Ballard is traded, or bought out. He was a nice insurance policy before we snagged Hamhuis. Since then we've also added Garrison, and extended Edler. Ballard is a nice depth luxury, and is playing better this year, but he's still not top-4 on this team. He also lacks a NTC, so providing his play maintains, he should be easier to move. There are teams out there (Islanders most recent example) that scrape to reach the cap floor, I think teams like that would take on a real asset that can play as well as allowing them to hit that mark.

In the forward department next year looks as follows.....

Sedin $6.1M
Sedin $6.1M
Kesler $5M
Burrows $4.5M
Booth $4.25M
Hansen $1.35M
Kassian $0.87M

So $28.17M committed to 7 forwards. That leaves 5 spaces to fill and only $5.93M to do it with. That also fails to consider a backup goaltender.

Booth could be gone with the way Kassian has played. Otherwise none of those guys is going anywhere.

Expiring contracts.....

Malhotra $2.5M
Raymond $2.275M
Higgins $1.9M
Schroeder $1.025M
Lapierre $1.0M
Weise $0.615M
Ebbett $0.6M
Volpatti $0.6M

$10.515M total.

I think you give Schroeder the Tanev treatment (unless he really freaks out this season). I think you give them both 2-3 years at 1.3-1.5 per deals. Think Jannik Hansen. With the Cap going down you can sell them on the % thing too. They aren't UFA, they play for us or they don't play.

If Raymond keeps it up he could be back, but the Flames (or someone) might throw 3.5M at him if he puts up a 50-point pace season. I don't know that we want to do that. If we deal Booth, we can afford Raymond. Don't think we can afford a 3.5M third-liner...

I would take Higgins' wall presence at $1.9 again.

Manny's done. I'd take Lapierre and Weise back, depending on what they want (Weise is RFA, ours if we want him). Ebbett and Volpatti are a pile of Meh to me, plenty of guys available to fill those roles.

Sedin-Sedin-Kassian
Booth-Kesler-Burrows
Raymond($3M)-Schroeder($1.3)-Hansen
Higgins-Lapierre-Weise (800K)
?????

Edler-Garrison
Hamhuis-Bieksa
Tanev (1.35M)- ???
????-????

Schneider
Lack

That gives us a $61M payroll, and $3.2M left to sign some depth. I didn't include a return for Luongo or Ballard, but surely we'll get some pieces that are either on ELC's or cheap depth guys. There's also Booth still there, and Raymond's raise.

Basically, there's options. We're not in cap trouble until October 2013, and it really on needs a couple moves.

[Potatoe1]

LOL PK Suban didn't get 3 mill per after playing top pairing min for the Habs.

Tanev will be lucky to break 1.5. Steady or not he is a 3rd pairing guy who doesn't score a lot, and he has no arbitration rights. I would just straight up low ball him.

Ditto on Schroeder.

I think it's going to be a straight up shit show for UFA's trying to get contracts next year, I don't see any of our current guys getting good offers. My guess is that everyone takes a haircut.

When was the last time the cap went down more then 5 mill ?

I like Booth, and Ballard is playing well, but to be honest we might be better off buying both guys out and going for bargains in free agency.

[Benjo]

I believe in GMMG AND AGMLG

[dbr]

Gotta echo Potatoes comments, I'd look to get Schroeder and Tanev extended on the cheap, see which of the depth forwards. could be extended for the least and then evaluate whether to buy out Ballard, Booth or both and go shopping with what's left.

[Strangelove]

Ballard $4.2M
Tanev $3M (might be being generous here, assuming he gets Alberts' money and then some as he has been so steady)

Tanev will get just over $1mil, Ballard will be replaced with someone making less than $2mil.

Expiring contracts.....

Malhotra $2.5M
Raymond $2.275M
Higgins $1.9M
Schroeder $1.025M
Lapierre $1.0M
Weise $0.615M
Ebbett $0.6M
Volpatti $0.6M

Malhotra - GONE
Raymond - GONE
Higgins - re-sign at about the same price or GONE
Schroeder - slight raise
Lapierre - slight raise
Weise - very slight raise
Ebbett - DOESN'T MATTER
Volpatti - DOESN'T MATTER

[coco_canuck]

I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy anyone out this off-season unless Gillis finds something better on the market or maybe finds a taker for Ballard on the trade market.

The fact that they also have the buy-out option in summer 2014 is something to keep in mind. If you can save one or two buyouts, then you have even more options the following summer depending on how the season goes. Gillis' MO has been all about having depth so I can see them trying to squeeze as many players possible onto next season's roster, and they may have to use some LTIR trick work as they've done in the past. I'm not talking about being +$3M over the cap, but I can see them going slightly over and figuring it out.

The big shoe to drop is the eventual Luongo trade. It's difficult to say what comes in return and what impact it has on the cap, but right now I'm not overly concerned about the situation.

There will be some turnover, but there are some assets here that will be moved, hopefully for something appreciable and affordable.

Regardless, if the Canucks are going to remain contenders for the next couple of seasons they need to get something from Schroeder, Jensen, Gaunce, Corrado, Connauton and Lack. They don't need all of them to pan out, but at least two have to become above average NHLers and another couple have to contribute consistent league average play.

When the cap crunch hits, teams with valuable young players on cheap contracts will be ahead.

[Meds]

LOL PK Suban didn't get 3 mill per after playing top pairing min for the Habs.

Tanev will be lucky to break 1.5. Steady or not he is a 3rd pairing guy who doesn't score a lot, and he has no arbitration rights. I would just straight up low ball him.

Ditto on Schroeder.

I think it's going to be a straight up shit show for UFA's trying to get contracts next year, I don't see any of our current guys getting good offers. My guess is that everyone takes a haircut.

When was the last time the cap went down more then 5 mill ?

I like Booth, and Ballard is playing well, but to be honest we might be better off buying both guys out and going for bargains in free agency.

In regards to Tanev, I had forgotten about PK's contract.....and to be honest I was thinking in 2005-2012 terms. You are probably right about UFA's this year. Although there may be a few GM's who exercise the buyout option on some surprises. Aging players with multiple years remaining who have a significant cap hit but very little real salary remaining. Who knows.

So based on that you are probably right on Schroeder too. Though there is the risk that some GM has a bit of room and drops an offer sheet on him that makes things a bit difficult. (Unless offer sheets are changed in the new CBA.....I'm not sure).

Your opinion on Ballard and Booth is one I share. Both may indeed be worth keeping, but it might just come down to the numbers.

[Topper]

Lower cap, new world order.

3rd liners who can fill a 2nd line role on a poor team are likely not $4 - $5 million men any more.

Top line players will get theirs, 2nd tier will get theirs from lower tier teams. The rest can take what they're offered or learn to enjoy Soviet domestic flights.

[Hockey Widow]

Lower cap, new world order.

3rd liners who can fill a 2nd line role on a poor team are likely not $4 - $5 million men any more.

Top line players will get theirs, 2nd tier will get theirs from lower tier teams. The rest can take what they're offered or learn to enjoy Soviet domestic flights.

I love you Topper

[Zamboni Driver]

I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy anyone out this off-season unless Gillis finds something better on the market or maybe finds a taker for Ballard on the trade market.

The fact that they also have the buy-out option in summer 2014 is something to keep in mind. If you can save one or two buyouts, then you have even more options the following summer depending on how the season goes. Gillis' MO has been all about having depth so I can see them trying to squeeze as many players possible onto next season's roster, and they may have to use some LTIR trick work as they've done in the past. I'm not talking about being +$3M over the cap, but I can see them going slightly over and figuring it out.

I tend to agree.

I like Booth, and Ballard is playing well, but to be honest we might be better off buying both guys out and going for bargains in free agency.

Maybe we can get Aaron Rome for a couple million?

I think Ballard is traded, or bought out. He was a nice insurance policy before we snagged Hamhuis. Since then we've also added Garrison, and extended Edler. Ballard is a nice depth luxury, and is playing better this year, but he's still not top-4 on this team. He also lacks a NTC, so providing his play maintains, he should be easier to move.

Problem is, who do we put in his place?
I'd sure like Ballard a heck of alot more as a 4th/5th D-man if he was somewhere in the $2 - $2.5 mil range, but by 2014 - 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if we're back up to a $70 - $75 million Cap and his salary will be close to the going rate for a 3rd - 5th D man.

Seems like this is the first year in a long time that AV can throw the 3rd pairing out there and not be worried about them.
I just remember too many times in the past few years when the third pairing looked like a gong show out there.

Bottom 6 forwards are alot easier to fill in than a solid D-pairing.

[Potatoe1]

Though there is the risk that some GM has a bit of room and drops an offer sheet on him that makes things a bit difficult. (Unless offer sheets are changed in the new CBA.....I'm not sure).

Odds so low they aren't worth worrying about.

[tantalum]

Step 1 in this discussion is really looking at the financials coming out of this season. If they are strong then the $64.3 mil cap is only going to be a one year thing and it will bounce back up close to the $70 mil range the year after (it can't go below the $64.3 mil cap).

Once Luongo is gone and a backup is brought in (max $1.5 mil) they will be about $2 mil over the cap. Trimming the fat by replacing Malhotra with a cheaper player will be about half of that $2 mil. Some little tweaks here and there and they can ice pretty much the same roster as they can ice now. One of Raymond, Booth, or Ballard may be gone but that will be dependent on a couple of things:

1) how they perform...Ballard has been good this year. As has Raymond. Booth we don't know. If they all play well they will at the very least be good trade bait.
2) injuries heading into next season. They can play around with sending guys down to get under the cap to use LTIR space etc.

Essentially, once Luongo is moved and Malhotra replaced (or signed for much less) I don't expect Gillis to really worry about anything until camp is done. And even then he can likely get himself under the cap by going with a short roster for a while if need be.

I agree with Pot, the bottom 6 guys are going to take the immediate hit under this new CBA with the cap falling. Gillis will likely be able to round out a 4th line without paying much beyond the minimum.