So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Topper » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:30 pm

Lou suffers a groin pull in his second start and spends the next six weeks on IR with Bieksa and Hamhuis.
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Nuckertuzzi » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:31 pm

Uncle dans leg wrote:My 2 cents



I was on your side before the lockout. Things have changed. With the new landscape I highly doubt now we'll be getting the kind of return for Lu that you're hoping for and imo best case is a salary dump with a role player or two, and/or lame prospect or pick coming back. With so much riding on this shortened season I'd rather have the security over the crappy return and we can dump him off next year via whatever avenue is available.

I would at least do what Tanti09 suggested and wait for the deadline in April to see how our goaltending plays out first. Once he's gone it's Schneids or bust...again, any other full season year I'm fine with that.
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Strangelove » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:38 pm

Okay, here's a crazy idea.

My FIRST EVER crazy idea!

I'm not sure how this new 'Salary Retention in Trades' thingy works, but it probably goes by percentage.

Okay so we offer to pay 44% of Roberto's salary, retaining 44% of his cap-hit.

That would be $3mil on a $6.714mil salary and ~ $2.5mil of a cap-hit.

Now, why the hell would we do that?

Well we only do it if the centerpiece coming back is named Jonathan Huberdeau!

The cap-space we lose in paying $2.5mil of Lou's hit is partially offset by a coupla factors:

1. Huberdeau is presently on an entry-level salary.

2. Resigning superstars are underpaid in today's NHL (for example, Crosby might get $20mil-per in a non-CBA NHL).

Now if you disagree with #2, you're probably not going to like this proposal.

If you don't think Huberdeau is "superstar" material you're definitely not going to like this proposal.

So yeah we lose $2.5mil cap-space until Lou retires, at which time it goes up to ~ $3.5mil for a couple more.

BUT WE GET HUBERDEAU!!! :thumbs:

Panthers get a top-ten goalie for peanut crumbs per year so they're happy, wuddaya say guys?

EDIT: swap out Huberdeau for Gudbranson if you like!


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Last edited by Strangelove on Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Canuck-One » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:40 pm

I think MG will wait until the right deal comes along.In the meantime there are a few stop gap measures to get us by until Kesler is ready and to fill the 8th D spot. For the right price how about giving Brendan Morrison a look. Sure he has slowed but he still has enough sense to hold down the 2 C position. Or there is Arnott, big and strong in front of the net, not the player he once was but in a race for the playoffs he can still add something at the 2 C. On the D there are two guys with the ability to hold down number 8 and they are Jim Vandermeer or Colin White. If MG can sign any of these guys for under a mil we would have no cap problems and they could carry us through until next year.























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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Strangelove » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:53 pm

BurningBeard wrote:Am I the only one who thinks $4M in cap space 6 years from now will be peanuts? Or should I say peanut crumbs?


Going by recent revenue growth levels I figure the cap would be around $80mil.

(anyone wanna do the math on this one?) :D

But I figure growth levels will be higher going forward (not this season, and perhaps not the next, but twill).

So yeah I figure the cap is nearing $100mil by then.

$3.5mil would be a bit of a pain, but manageable.

BurningBeard wrote:Strangelove can do the math to figure out how many metric tonnes. I think it's around 2000.


How long of a caravan of dump trucks would be needed to haul all that? :D

And who is going to crop Canuck-One's posts?
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby ODB » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:57 pm

Strangelove wrote:
RoyalDude wrote:Would Doc Strangelove still prefer his brethren Aryan Ginger over the Olive skinned Pizano? Something tells me the Neo Nazi from Abbotsford would.


Image

Your imagination is running away with you mien friend!

Is this the kind of "quality" posting you want Ohdee to bring to this forum??

Perhaps YOU should be restricted to the Open Forum!

Image

:thumbs:
BTW, NOT A FLAME ... JUST AN OBSERVATION ... :P
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby ODB » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:04 pm

Unlike some well know flip-floppers I'm saying the same thing now I said last spring. Keep Luongo...

Unless we get blown away, he and Ginger can share the crease in this shortened season.
BTW, NOT A FLAME ... JUST AN OBSERVATION ... :P
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Strangelove » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:37 pm

Strangelove wrote:
BurningBeard wrote:Am I the only one who thinks $4M in cap space 6 years from now will be peanuts? Or should I say peanut crumbs?


Going by recent revenue growth levels I figure the cap would be around $80mil.

(anyone wanna do the math on this one?) :D


Hmmmm Mirtle already has:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/analysis-breaking-down-the-nhls-new-cba/article6976187/

If we assume 5 per cent annual revenue growth after a 2013-14 season where hockey-related revenue is flat at $3.3-billion, then the salary cap would be approaching $80-million by the time the league can opt out of the deal.

These calculations assume the salary floor remains $16-million below the cap and the 5 per cent cap escalator is still available, as per early indications that these aspects would be the same as the previous CBA.

Year..........Season.........Revenue......Players’ share*.......Salary cap.....Salary floor
1...............2012-13.........$2,275............$1,138..................70.2...............44.0
2...............2013-14.........$3,303............$1,652..................64.3...............44.0
3...............2014-15.........$3,468............$1,734..................62.7...............46.7
4...............2015-16.........$3,642............$1,821..................65.5...............49.5
5...............2016-17.........$3,824............$1,912..................68.6...............52.6
6...............2017-18.........$4,015............$2,007..................71.8...............55.8
7...............2018-19.........$4,216............$2,108..................75.1...............59.1
8...............2019-20.........$4,426............$2,213..................78.6...............62.6
9...............2020-21.........$4,648............$2,324..................82.3...............66.3
10..............2021-22.........$4,880............$2,440..................86.2...............70.2
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Topper » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:42 pm

Strangelove wrote:Hmmmm Mirtle already has:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/analysis-breaking-down-the-nhls-new-cba/article6976187/

If we assume 5 per cent annual revenue growth after a 2013-14 season where hockey-related revenue is flat at $3.3-billion, then the salary cap would be approaching $80-million by the time the league can opt out of the deal.

Did he work for Fehr?
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Strangelove » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:46 pm

ODB wrote:I'm saying the same thing now I said last spring. Keep Luongo...


Assuming he'd wanna stay, I wonder if this whole "recapture" thing would make trading Schneids an option for GMMG.

As in, if he keeps Lou, maybe he could talk him into going on the IR for his last few seasons, instead of "retiring"?

I dunno though, it feels like Lou wants to go East....
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Strangelove » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:47 pm

Topper wrote:Did he work for Fehr?


True, no one can say for certain where the cap will be down the road.

So glad Fehr got pwned by Bettman. :D
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby BurningBeard » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:59 pm

Strangelove wrote:
BurningBeard wrote:Am I the only one who thinks $4M in cap space 6 years from now will be peanuts? Or should I say peanut crumbs?


Going by recent revenue growth levels I figure the cap would be around $80mil.

(anyone wanna do the math on this one?) :D

But I figure growth levels will be higher going forward (not this season, and perhaps not the next, but twill).

So yeah I figure the cap is nearing $100mil by then.

$3.5mil would be a bit of a pain, but manageable.

BurningBeard wrote:Strangelove can do the math to figure out how many metric tonnes. I think it's around 2000.


How long of a caravan of dump trucks would be needed to haul all that? :D

And who is going to crop Canuck-One's posts?

I have Hydrocephalus so I'm not sure how good my math is, but I believe you're looking at a caravan of dump trucks approximately 17 miles long. It also equates to approximately one David Booth cap hit. :thumbs:
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby Hockey Widow » Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:19 pm

A couple of points.

First, if Luongo wants to go to Florida keep in mind he can trigger his out clause in another year or two and demand a trade. A demand that MG is contractually bound to honour. Trading Cory is a risky move. Luongo's personal life is going to be key to his decisions. He has already dealt with the emotional probability of leaving Vancouver so I doubt a decision to demand a trade is going to be hard for him.

10 years from now, maybe 8, we will have to deal with a new CBA. No one knows what it will look like. It may deal with some of these cap-recapture issues or may even allow more amnesty buy outs. If we have the risk of having to take on Luongo's cap or some portion of it in a trade then I think it will allow us to get a better return. After all most people say he is untradeable because of his contract so if you fix this then what obstacles are left.

No reason why we can't trade for his rights then send him to the AHL. Another point, if we trade for his rights back then the cap-recapture clause should not apply because we were the team that signed him no? All this is too much speculation anyway. If there is a penalty then MG will deal with that and factor it into any trade.
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby ukcanuck » Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:30 pm

Hockey Widow wrote:A couple of points.

First, if Luongo wants to go to Florida keep in mind he can trigger his out clause in another year or two and demand a trade. A demand that MG is contractually bound to honour. Trading Cory is a risky move. Luongo's personal life is going to be key to his decisions. He has already dealt with the emotional probability of leaving Vancouver so I doubt a decision to demand a trade is going to be hard for him.

10 years from now, maybe 8, we will have to deal with a new CBA. No one knows what it will look like. It may deal with some of these cap-recapture issues or may even allow more amnesty buy outs. If we have the risk of having to take on Luongo's cap or some portion of it in a trade then I think it will allow us to get a better return. After all most people say he is untradeable because of his contract so if you fix this then what obstacles are left.

No reason why we can't trade for his rights then send him to the AHL. Another point, if we trade for his rights back then the cap-recapture clause should not apply because we were the team that signed him no? All this is too much speculation anyway. If there is a penalty then MG will deal with that and factor it into any trade.


As far as I would be concerned its all about return, the lockout seems to have set up a great situation for Gillis. He can keep both goalies happy as a one time deal considering its a short sprint to the Stanley Cup. "Hey here is number one goalie money to split the duties and walk away with a Stanley cup ring. Next season is next season but for now a big strength of this team is goaltending.
So unless the return includes a second line centre and a depth defence man and a prospect or pick...see ya at the trade deadline....

Speaking of Toronto...how many ex leafs are still with the flames in the I had phanuef trade anyway?
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Re: So, who would you like in a return for Luongo

Postby coco_canuck » Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:41 pm

A good article from Elliotte Friedman about cap-recapture and Luongo.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2013/01/new-cba-doesnt-hurt-roberto-luongo.html

How does it work?

The simplest way to explain it is this: Let's assume the Canucks and Maple Leafs make the deal. Vancouver would be responsible for the "cap benefit" that it received in the first two years. Toronto would be responsible for any remaining "cap benefit" it gets as a result of contract structure if he walks away early.

Here's the math. Luongo salary:

2010-11: $10 million US

2011-12: $6,716,000

That's a total of $16,716,000.

Luongo's cap hit is $5,333,333. You multiply it by how many years he spent with the Canucks, so, in this case, that figure is doubled. That's $10,666,666.

What was the cap benefit to Vancouver? You take the actual salaries paid ($16,716,000) and subtract the total amount of cap space the Canucks used ($10,666,666). The answer is $6,049,334
.


Here are his actual cash numbers for those years:

2012-13 through 2017-18: $6,714,000

2018-19: $3,382,000

He would then walk away from three years at a combined $3,618,000. And, it's time for the penalties.

Vancouver's "frozen" $6,049,334 thaws. It is divided by the number of "unused" years in Luongo's contract -- three. The figure is $2,016,445. The Canucks will get a "cap penalty" at that amount for the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.


heard people were wondering if it made more sense for Vancouver to buy out Luongo. These figures make it seem non-sensical. First of all, with the opt-out clauses attached to the length of the new CBA, there's no guarantee the rules will be the same by the time the penalties are scheduled to take effect.

Second, there may just be a loophole. From what I understand, Long-Term Injury Reserve still exists. (For example, it allows Chris Pronger to come off the Philadelphia cap while he recovers from concussions.)

God forbid Luongo (or anyone else) goes through that. But he will be 40 in the summer of 2019. Who knows what happens to a goalie's body by then? Maybe he's had enough and is battling some nagging groin or hip or knee problem. He goes on LTIR, still gets paid and neither Toronto nor Vancouver gets any kind of penalty.


So it seems the cap penalty will not be all that onerus, especially if the cap is in excess of $80M by the time that happens.

Or as it was suggested, maybe he just rides the LTIR pine for a couple years.

All in all, this CBA isn't necessarily ideal for the Canucks, but it's not all that bad either. The drop in the cap isn't enough to really hamstring this team, and the two compliance buy outs can be very handy if Ballard and/or anyone else becomes an immovable albatross.
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