Draft 2012

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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Orcasfan » Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:18 am

Fred wrote:
Farhan Lalji wrote:Just for the record, I think Gillis did extremely well at this draft, and I think that both Gaunce and Mallete will be strong players for us in the not-so-distant future. Gaunce seems like one of those 'character' guys with a decent skillset and hockey sense. I've heard that his skating isn't all that great, but neither were the twins'. Mallete is a reasonably skilled guy and knows how to throw em'. The guy also hits. I like this kid.

Looks like Gillis has really made a priority to get bigger and badder with his draft picks over the past 2 seasons. He has my support.


Maybe Mallet can do all of the above ....but there's a big difference doing that in a league filled with 16 year olds and a league filled with 20-30 year olds. That has to be one of the reason most teams don't take older picks, tough to judge them


And that may be why Gillis & Co focus in on those overagers - they are largely ignored by other teams! And this is especially the case when kids like Mallet do not at all stand out in their draft years. He may catch up in his development, and/or his TOI circumstances change (as Mallet's did), and, voila, he puts together a good season, apparently out of nowhere. Will his game translate to the pros? Who knows? But I'd rather listen to someone's opinion on the matter who has thoroughly scouted him. :wink:

I don't know if this is a new drafting strategy for GMMG or not. Too early to tell. But I would guess that the reason they did not pick a European this time (first time in years!), is because, now, so much attention and scouting is focused there by most teams. So, finding a "hidden" gem like Edler is going to be much more difficult! :cry: Probably the same situation with the WHL.

Gillis did say that one of the advantages of drafting an overager was that they would be able to assess his development and put him into the pros sooner than young 18 year olds. Makes sense. Similar with the college-bound kids. They will be in good programs longer to aid their development into potential pros and the Canucks will have plenty of time to assess them. All this is trying to get ahead of the pack. We'll see if it was successful in a few years. Of course, if the team is consistently drafting in the later picks, you've got to come up with something that might give you an edge, because you're not likely to be able to grab a recognized top talent. All due to continued success! Crazy, eh? :hmmm:
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Diehard1 » Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:15 am

A very good poster on another board did some analysis on overagers versus underagers until 2007 - and overagers are much more likely to play in the NHL. It's not even close, I don't want to steal his work but it was something like 40% of overagers play at least 1 game, while less than 10% of 18 year olds do.

I like the strategy on paper, at least very few other teams are doing it so your competition isn't nearly as high. We'll see how the strategy works, but Gillis and his team sure do like thinking outside the box.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Fred » Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:19 am

Diehard1 wrote:A very good poster on another board did some analysis on overagers versus underagers until 2007 - and overagers are much more likely to play in the NHL. It's not even close, I don't want to steal his work but it was something like 40% of overagers play at least 1 game, while less than 10% of 18 year olds do.

I like the strategy on paper, at least very few other teams are doing it so your competition isn't nearly as high. We'll see how the strategy works, but Gillis and his team sure do like thinking outside the box.


That's interesting I know the question of age was brought up in the case of Friezen. He had a good season but was an older kid in fact man playing against youngsters how does that transfer to a Pro career. Why couldn't he hold his own when the players were the same age as he was ? The term late bloomer is easy to throw out. Lets hope your poster compatriot from else where has science to his theory
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby mpp » Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:59 am

Diehard1 wrote:A very good poster on another board did some analysis on overagers versus underagers until 2007 - and overagers are much more likely to play in the NHL. It's not even close, I don't want to steal his work but it was something like 40% of overagers play at least 1 game, while less than 10% of 18 year olds do.

I like the strategy on paper, at least very few other teams are doing it so your competition isn't nearly as high. We'll see how the strategy works, but Gillis and his team sure do like thinking outside the box.


Interesting - can you share the link? I'm curious of details.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Potatoe1 » Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:27 pm

Diehard1 wrote:A very good poster on another board did some analysis on overagers versus underagers until 2007 - and overagers are much more likely to play in the NHL. It's not even close, I don't want to steal his work but it was something like 40% of overagers play at least 1 game, while less than 10% of 18 year olds do.

I like the strategy on paper, at least very few other teams are doing it so your competition isn't nearly as high. We'll see how the strategy works, but Gillis and his team sure do like thinking outside the box.


The strategy of drafting over agers seems sound, however I'm not sure it is a great idea to use second rounders on guys pegged to go in the mid rounds. Thats still a high pick and on the asset management side, I'm not sure I like the move.

That said if the kid comes in and plays well next year (in the AHL) then it will be hard to complain. If he struggles though it is going to be a very easy pick to criticize.

BTW do you have a link to that posters analysis?
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Topper » Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:36 pm

It was a low 2nd round pick in a slim draft.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby dbr » Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:43 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:The strategy of drafting over agers seems sound, however I'm not sure it is a great idea to use second rounders on guys pegged to go in the mid rounds. Thats still a high pick and on the asset management side, I'm not sure I like the move.

That said if the kid comes in and plays well next year (in the AHL) then it will be hard to complain. If he struggles though it is going to be a very easy pick to criticize.


You're probably right, but given the Canucks position (one pick between the first and fifth rounds) it's a tough call if they see him as the best player left.

Still, if they thought they could get him with a later pick I'd be disappointed if they didn't try to move down and pick up another selection.

BTW do you have a link to that posters analysis?


I'd be curious to see that as well, CanucksArmy had an article that drew different conclusions, although it's kind of all over the place so it's tough to say for sure whether they even attempted to address the success rate for players over 18 at the time of the draft.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby black ace » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:26 pm

Im not really a big fan of this draft. Not because I have ever seen any of these guys play but our continually drafting kids that are going to US colleges is not what I would do.

1st rounder seems like a bit of a project like most players that go in this area of the draft. I would have gone with Samuelson but thats just based on media reports of both players.

2nd rounder was passed over twice already and thought he was going in the 5th or 6th round. He is likely going to play pro next year. My bet would be in the ECHL.

5th round Ben Hutton was passed over last year and was ranked 200th (taken 147th) he is heading to College.

6th rounder Wesley Myron was passed over last year and plays in the BCJHL. He is heading to College.

7th rounder Matthew Beattie is a high school player also going to College next year.

Why does Gillis avoid the WHL like the plague ? And does he have more faith in US college than the CHL ?

I am not saying these guys wont turn out. I have no real idea. havent seen them play. But much like Montreal hiring a GM based on the language he speaks I wonder if we are looking harder at players going to college over a player who plays in the CHL.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby dbr » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:44 pm

I think the advantage of getting players who are on their way to the NCAA is that if they are clearly not ready to play in the NHL you get to hang back and give them a shot to develop before you have to either sign them or allow them to walk for nothing - if they are ready then they may be receptive to offers to turn pro.

If your selection is not playing college hockey then he had better be ready to play professional hockey within two years or you will be losing him for nothing. The Canucks have already had to let players go back into the draft, and did well to find a professional team in Europe for Grenier rather than using/wasting a contract on a player unlikely to even stick in the AHL at this point.

As for Gaunce being a project.. I don't know how many players available at 26 were anything but, however BG seems to be about as far from a project as it gets. He's already got NHL size and was one of the more impressive players at the draft combine, he's supposedly a very strong two-way player with good instincts and a reputation for making the right plays at the right time. His shot has already been described as at a pro level.

Aside from his skating/quickness and of course the usual adjustments all kids have to make I'm not sure what makes Gaunce a "project" to be honest.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Potatoe1 » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:51 pm

black ace wrote:1st rounder seems like a bit of a project like most players that go in this area of the draft.


He was tagged as one of the more NHL ready players.....

Though I mostly agree with the rest of your post.

Love the first pick, not so sure about the rest....
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby donlever » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:51 pm

dbr wrote: His shot has already been described as at a pro level.



You Tube him.

He's got a great shot and puts it all over the net.

Nice to watch.

Add shootout potential to his list of attributes.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby tantalum » Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:08 pm

First pick was great. Clearly the consensus best player available and not a White of Nathan Smith type pick.

The rest of the draft...who knows but then again I think people need to remember this draft year overall was a terrible one. Get past the first 40 or so picks and it was about trying to find raw talent that might be molded into a useful player.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Potatoe1 » Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:36 pm

donlever wrote:
dbr wrote: His shot has already been described as at a pro level.



You Tube him.

He's got a great shot and puts it all over the net.

Nice to watch.

Add shootout potential to his list of attributes.



There was a video floating around from the CHL all star game (?) where the prospects were put through skating and agility drills.

Gaunce was singled out during the interviews (by another player) as placing first in a large number of the drills.

Not sure if the "skating issues" have been over blown or not but I don't see how a kid who is better then his peer group in numerous skating drills could be particularly deficient in that area.

Either way we will find out in a few months when we see him play at camp.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby FAN » Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:38 pm

black ace wrote:Why does Gillis avoid the WHL like the plague ? And does he have more faith in US college than the CHL ?

I am not saying these guys wont turn out. I have no real idea. havent seen them play. But much like Montreal hiring a GM based on the language he speaks I wonder if we are looking harder at players going to college over a player who plays in the CHL.


I'm also wondering why Gillis doesn't like drafting WHL players. He certainly likes signing local guys though.

As for preferring college players over CHL players. My guess is that the 50 contracts limitations has something to do with it. There's a risk to drafting college guys due to the NCAA loophole, but it also gives a team more flexibility as it typically gives an extra year or two to sign an drafted player playing in the NCAA.

In terms of drafting overagers. I'm not really a fan as it's traditionally seen as a big risk. But it has worked out in the past for the Canucks.
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Re: Draft 2012

Postby Orcasfan » Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:41 pm

tantalum wrote:First pick was great. Clearly the consensus best player available and not a White of Nathan Smith type pick.

The rest of the draft...who knows but then again I think people need to remember this draft year overall was a terrible one. Get past the first 40 or so picks and it was about trying to find raw talent that might be molded into a useful player.


Ditto. I agree that the overall quality of this draft may, in fact, have been a reason why the Canucks went looking for other options - overagers and college-bound kids. Next year is supposed to be a strong draft class, so we'll see how it all pans out. By the way, another overager - Tanner Pearson - was taken 30th by the Kings! Just saying... :look:
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