I decided to look at some contract comparables: Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford, Semyon Varlamov, Carey Price, Jimmy Howard, Steve Mason, and Cam Ward - specifically looking at the contracts they signed when they were expected to be the starting goalie after being backups or 1A/1Bs on ELCs or second contracts. These goalies are roughly the same age as Schneider and were in a comparable situation:

Jonathan Quick signed for 3 years at a $1.8M cap after starting 72 games in 2009/10.

Corey Crawford signed for 3 years at $2.667M after starting 57 games in 2010/11.

Semyon Varlamov signed for 3 years at $2.833 after starting 27 games in 2010/11.

Carey Price signed for 2 years at $2.75M after starting 41 games in 2009/10.

Jimmy Howard signed for 2 years at $2.25M after starting 63 games in 2010/11.

Steve Mason signed for 2 years at $2.9M after starting 54 games in 2010/11.

...even Conn Smythe winner Cam Ward signed for 3 years at $2.667M after starting 60 games in 2006/07.

I expect something similar for Schneider. Some of these other goalies also had the threat of an offer sheet, so I don't see why people think that Schneider will command a contract for $4-$5M...

S_C