What will Cory Schneider sign for?

[Southern_Canuck]

I decided to look at some contract comparables: Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford, Semyon Varlamov, Carey Price, Jimmy Howard, Steve Mason, and Cam Ward - specifically looking at the contracts they signed when they were expected to be the starting goalie after being backups or 1A/1Bs on ELCs or second contracts. These goalies are roughly the same age as Schneider and were in a comparable situation:

Jonathan Quick signed for 3 years at a $1.8M cap after starting 72 games in 2009/10.
Corey Crawford signed for 3 years at $2.667M after starting 57 games in 2010/11.
Semyon Varlamov signed for 3 years at $2.833 after starting 27 games in 2010/11.
Carey Price signed for 2 years at $2.75M after starting 41 games in 2009/10.
Jimmy Howard signed for 2 years at $2.25M after starting 63 games in 2010/11.
Steve Mason signed for 2 years at $2.9M after starting 54 games in 2010/11.
...even Conn Smythe winner Cam Ward signed for 3 years at $2.667M after starting 60 games in 2006/07.

I expect something similar for Schneider. Some of these other goalies also had the threat of an offer sheet, so I don't see why people think that Schneider will command a contract for $4-$5M...

S_C

[Eddy Punch Clock]

I'd be happy with a 3 year deal at 3.25, 3.5, 3.75

Cap hit 3.5

[Southern_Canuck]

^^^ Well the going rate for a "first-time starting goaltender" salary appears to be 3 years at under $3M cap.

S_C

[dbr]

The max should hopefully be Jaroslav Halak's four year, $3.75m per contract. If you work that out to a dollar amount equal to the same relative cap hit as Halak's when he signed (I'm way too lazy to do this for the other comparables) then you are looking at about $4.5m per season.

That should be the high water mark for Cory on a deal where he gives up three UFA seasons, IMO.

[Zedlee]

If I were Cory's agent I'd be demanding $4+ million per season or else just wait until July 1 and maybe there will be an offer sheet. Or the Canucks will qualify him and he will be a UFA next year. Cory is holding all the cards in this game.

[Farhan Lalji]

The max should hopefully be Jaroslav Halak's four year, $3.75m per contract.

Personally, this is what I see Cory getting. Might be backloaded a bit more(i.e. 3, 4.125, 4.125)

[donlever]

The max should hopefully be Jaroslav Halak's four year, $3.75m per contract.

Personally, this is what I see Cory getting. Might be backloaded a bit more(i.e. 3, 4.125, 4.125)

You figure Aquaman is gonna need the cash to pay his wife off during the first year of the deal?

[SKYO]

If I were Cory's agent I'd be demanding $4+ million per season or else just wait until July 1 and maybe there will be an offer sheet. Or the Canucks will qualify him and he will be a UFA next year. Cory is holding all the cards in this game.

Yup, everyone's forgetting CS if he really wanted to can easily become a UFA right quick.

I think it'll be closer to like 6 years at $4M per, which would mean RL definitely needs to be shopped, which I'm sure MG's been working on since the trade deadline.

[Farhan Lalji]

The max should hopefully be Jaroslav Halak's four year, $3.75m per contract.

Personally, this is what I see Cory getting. Might be backloaded a bit more(i.e. 3, 4.125, 4.125)

You figure Aquaman is gonna need the cash to pay his wife off during the first year of the deal?

Yes. I think that's how it typically works if you meet your wife from the adult entertainment section on backpages.com.

[donlever]

....or Southern Alberta apparently.

[ODB]

I don't get why everyone thinks Schneider has so much control. Sign for X amount for X number of years or... go fucking play in Siberia (better known in NHL circles as Columbus)

GMMG can trade his fucking ass if Ginger gets stupid.

By all accounts CoHo (his camp?) got stupid... Bu-bye!

Gillis calls the shots.

[Meds]

I think the precedent set by other GM's when it comes to goaltenders is a reactionary one based on contracts like those handed out to a few young netminders who were lights out, got big money, and then under performed based on cap hit or fell apart completely.

-Cam Ward. $6.4M
-Antti Niemi. $4.0M
-MA Fleury. $5.5M
-Rick DiPietro. $4.5
-Steve Mason. $3.2M

These guys all performed well at one point and have become the worst goaltending investments currently going. I would add Bryzgalov to that list but he played well in Anaheim and Phoenix and should get another season in Philly to right his ship before being thrown completely under the bus.

Then you have guys that are playing at a level that is worth way more then they are currently paid.

-Jonathan Quick. $1.8M
-Jimmy Howard. $2.2M
-Mike Smith. $2.0M
-Jose Theodore. $1.5M
-Brian Elliot. $1.8M
-Cory Schneider. $9K

Goaltending is such a tricky position to commit to as a GM because on an off night the guy can literally sink the entire team single-handedly. Young studs in the crease can suddenly fall apart and never return to form, while your run-of-the-mill backup goaltender can suddenly develop into an all-star who suddenly carries his team deep into the playoffs. I think it has to be the hardest position to scout. Look at what everyone was saying about Trevor Kidd.....you remember, the Calgary Flames prospect who was chosen 9 picks ahead of Martin Brodeur. Yeah. I was shocked when I read that. The great goaltenders this year were, for the most part, late round picks who developed their games and learned what it takes to win and stay focused before earning their jobs.

Gillis will likely have to pony up in the $3M range for Schneider simply because another GM will surely slap an offer-sheet on the table if he (GMMG) doesn't. However, I think it would be reasonable to go with something short-term, in the neighborhood of $2M simply because Schneider has not been the legitimate starter at the NHL level before, and the Canucks need to be more certain about his consistency before committing to him the way they did to Luongo. It's a total catch-22.....if Gillis signs him to a 4 year deal and a $4(ish)M cap hit, and then Schneider wins a Vezina and puts up top 5 numbers, well GMMG looks like a genius and everyone is happy. However, if he signs him to even a $3(ish)M cap hit that goes 4(ish) years and Schneider tanks, then Gillis is despised. If he signs him to something in the 2 year range at $3M and then Scheider plays all-world for the duration of his contract, we are stoked.....until Schneider cashes in and wants 6 years at $6M and we have a whopper of a contract on the books until he is in his mid 30's, and no guarantee that his performance won't take a dive. I'd hate to be in Gillis' shoes right now. Hopefully Schneider's agent isn't a complete tool too.

[Southern_Canuck]

I think the precedent set by other GM's when it comes to goaltenders is a reactionary one based on contracts like those handed out to a few young netminders who were lights out, got big money, and then under performed based on cap hit or fell apart completely.

-Cam Ward. $6.4M
-Antti Niemi. $4.0M
-MA Fleury. $5.5M
-Rick DiPietro. $4.5
-Steve Mason. $3.2M

These guys all performed well at one point and have become the worst goaltending investments currently going. I would add Bryzgalov to that list but he played well in Anaheim and Phoenix and should get another season in Philly to right his ship before being thrown completely under the bus.

Your numbers and comparisons are a little off...

Ward played out a 3 year, $2.667M 2nd contract before signing his 6 year, $6.3M contract and was the starter before signing the $2.667M cap hit contract.

Niemi was on his 4th NHL contract and was 28 when he received his 4 year, $3.8M cap hit contract last summer. (He also has a Stanley Cup on his resume.)

Fleury had just started every game in the Playoffs in 2007/08 at age 23, taking his team to the Stanley Cup Finals, and falling to Detroit. That's when he got his big contract beginning 2008/09. Then he won 16 playoff games the next year.

DiPietro - OK, I'm with you on this one.

Mason started 54 games in 2010/11, and looked like the real deal - won the Calder Trophy for NHL Rookie of the Year - so I'll forgive Howson for that signing. Anyway, only a $2.9M cap hit contract that is over next summer.

S_C

[vic]

I don't get why everyone thinks Schneider has so much control. Sign for X amount for X number of years or... go fucking play in Siberia (better known in NHL circles as Columbus)

GMMG can trade his fucking ass if Ginger gets stupid.

By all accounts CoHo (his camp?) got stupid... Bu-bye!

Gillis calls the shots.

+1

[herb]

I think the bigger question is if Luongo is traded, do you sign Schneider to a short term 2-3 year deal or a longer term deal?