wafflecombine wrote:Good analysis HW. Its a little out of step with what I'm reading on TSN and Sportsnet where they are saying Lou won't get us anything but a salary dump and the rail on and on about the length of the contract and whatnot.
I think Lou has value but I guess the ultimate question is how much.
I stole this from HFBoards from Jester00:
"I think waaaaay to much is being made of Luongo's contract. At the time it was signed, it was one of the last "retirement" deals made before the league closed that loophole in the CBA. Starting next year, his deal looks as follows:
12/13 Salary 6.7 Cap hit 5.3
13/14 Salary 6.7 Cap hit 5.3
14/15 Salary 6.7 Cap hit 5.3
15/16 Salary 6.7 Cap hit 5.3
16/17 Salary 6.7 Cap hit 5.3
17/18 Salary 6.7 Cap hit 5.3
18/19 Salary 3.4 Cap hit 5.3
19/20 Salary 1.6 Cap hit 5.3
20/21 Salary 1.0 Cap hit 5.3
21/22 Salary 1.0 Cap hit 5.3
At the end of the deal he'd be 43, and if anyone thinks he'll still be playing @ 43 for 1.0 million per then they are insane. Starting next year, this deal is essentially a 6 year deal with a salary of 6.7 and cap hit of 5.3. Which is a great deal for an elite goaltender.
At the end of those six years (2018) there is 7 million left for the last 4 years of the deal that could be bought out for 4.7 million spread over the next 8 years ~580k/year. The cap hit over those 8 years would be 2.5m, 4.3m, 4.9m, 4.9m, and then 580k over 4 more years.
The only teams that that may be an issue for are the teams right up against the cap. And again, its irrelavent because the chances of Luongo playing @ 39/40 yrs old for under 2 million/year are slim to none. That was the purpose behind the deal, to get around the cap.
People need to start looking at the deal as a 6 year 40 million dollar contract, because thats all it will end up being. At worst its a 7 year 43.5 million dollar contract and then Luongo retires.
Thats not a bad deal for an "elite" goaltender. So for those who keep saying its a cap dump and Luongo has no value, just stop. It's getting ridiculous. He has value, and if he is made available it won't be just a salary dump."
I like the analysis and think it bears some weight.