It's getting warm

[Strangelove]

A few decades ago these folks were screaming "Oh noes we's bees on the verge of another ICE AGE y'all!!!"

And of course the 'scientific consensus' at the time backed that up based upon 'recent data'.

Interesting you should bring that up, because here's a 1981 paper that predicted current trends fairly accurately, and it's fairly mainstream at that: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... rojection/

The point: It is an established fact that in the 70's the media + popular culture were screaming:

"Oh noes we's bees on the verge of another ICE AGE y'all!!!"

... or words to that effect.

Virtually the entire wide-eyed freaky-deaky leftist media was predicting death-by-freezing-for-billions, based upon information released by climatologists that pointed to a substantial drop in global temperature from 1940 up to that particular point in time (70's). Every single climate... paper ... had to acknowledge said temperature drop. And MOST... papers were predicting the cooling trend to continue.

The 'scientific consensus' that global cooling was trending.... combined with outlandish predictions of new-ice-age-doom-and-gloom coming from at least some high-profile climatologists.... fed the media craze.

Global Cooling Craze then... Global Warming Craze now.

The more things change, the more they remain the same....

They can't predict next week's weather but these el tardos can predict the global climate 50 years henceforth?

False argument. Short-term weather changes are virtually random, this is why an accurate forecast for next week is so hard to make. This has nothing to do with lon-term trends, which can be predicted accurately, see above. Simple example: I don't need to know if it's gonna rain tomorrow to tell you that the summer is going to be warmer than the winter.

Long-term trends cannot be predicted accurately (too many variables). All one can do is look at recent (geologically speaking) data and assume the present trend is going to continue to some degree. Most climatologists would predict the global climate will continue to increase temperature-wise going forward because that's the safe bet (mind you they would tend to quibble over ‘for how long’ and ‘to what extreme’ that warming might be).

I'm pretty sure that (as with the global cooling craze of the 70's) only a fraction of climatologists would predict we're headed for catastrophe.

Hey perhaps some kid will put out a... paper

... predicting global cooling.... and end up being hailed as a genius 30 years hence.

Who knows, right?


FUN FACT:

From 1940 to 1970, carbon-dioxide increased dramatically in the atmosphere and the climate actually COOLED.

[Farhan Lalji]

Sick Bunny! What's up homie. What's crackin in the hood?

Ha, I go out for a few minutes, and next thing I know the climate is 0.5C warmer, and Doc is 0.5C more irascible, and 6 oz more full of it...

A few decades ago these folks were screaming "Oh noes we's bees on the verge of another ICE AGE y'all!!!"

And of course the 'scientific consensus' at the time backed that up based upon 'recent data'.

Interesting you should bring that up, because here's a 1981 paper that predicted current trends fairly accurately, and it's fairly mainstream at that: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... rojection/

They can't predict next week's weather but these el tardos can predict the global climate 50 years henceforth?

False argument. Short-term weather changes are virtually random, this is why an accurate forecast for next week is so hard to make. This has nothing to do with lon-term trends, which can be predicted accurately, see above. Simple example: I don't need to know if it's gonna rain tomorrow to tell you that the summer is going to be warmer than the winter.

So maybe the "el tardos" are full of shit... but it's far more likely that your argument is.

Anyway, doesn't this belong in the hockey stick thread?

[Sick Bunny]

The 'scientific consensus' that global cooling was trending.... combined with outlandish predictions of new-ice-age-doom-and-gloom coming from at least some high-profile climatologists.... fed the media craze.

Hey, and 200 years ago "scientific consensus" attributed most disease to "vile humours", whatever the f*ck these were... and thought bleeding was a treatment for most ills... guess this means we should distrust everything modern medicine has to say too, eh? I mean they're all just a bunch of flip-floppers essentially, no?

See, the difference between "scientific consensus" and your bible-thumping lot is that "scientific consensus" tends to get more right over time.

As for the media, what's that got to do with anything? Left- or right-wing, they're a bunch of braying donkeys in any day and age.

Long-term trends cannot be predicted accurately (too many variables).

Oh really? How come I can predict a summer that's warmer than winter then? Ever heard of "models"? How do you even get into a car without a PhD in chemistry? I mean look at all those "variables" going on in the internal combustion engine, how can you be reasonably sure the car's going to do what you want it to do and not just go backwards all of a sudden?

So keep clinging to your precious "many variables", but it's just a red herring, and a rather weak one at that. I'll be seeing you on a beach in Calgary, bring the scuba gear.

[Sick Bunny]

Sick Bunny! What's up homie. What's crackin in the hood?

Hey GM! The usual, hanging to the knee and all that. What's up with you? You and Doc still chasin' chicks that are too young for you both?

[Farhan Lalji]

You and Doc still chasin' chicks that are too young for you both?

I can't speak for the good doctor but as far as I go, it just depends on what mood I'm in.

Anything 18-49 is fair game in my books.

I figured that I'm already going to hell anyways and so I might as well be open about it.

[Strangelove]

The 'scientific consensus' that global cooling was trending.... combined with outlandish predictions of new-ice-age-doom-and-gloom coming from at least some high-profile climatologists.... fed the media craze.

Hey, and 200 years ago "scientific consensus" attributed most disease to "vile humours", whatever the f*ck these were... and thought bleeding was a treatment for most ills... guess this means we should distrust everything modern medicine has to say too, eh? I mean they're all just a bunch of flip-floppers essentially, no?

I sense a great deal of angst.

All I did was point out that 35 years ago the "scientific consensus" was WRONG in regards to predicting climate.

No need to flip out ole bean.

BTW did you realize that scientific breakthroughs tend to smash "scientific consensus" to bits?

See, the difference between "scientific consensus" and your bible-thumping lot is that "scientific consensus" tends to get more right over time.

Now see, surely you drag “bible-thumpers” into this dialogue out of some form of personal angst!

But now that you mention it....

Did you know that "scientific consensus" and “bible-believing” are somewot similar?

And that “science” is completely different than both?

(Science is about cold hard provable facts, the other two are more about speculation).

BTW you sparked my curiosity re: the Bible’s position on “global warming”.

A quick googling tells me that the Bible predicts future runaway global warming!

Which seems to put a pure-science-lover such as myself at odds with both you and the thumpers.

(I’m assuming you’re not a thumper due to your angst towards them).

As for the media, what's that got to do with anything? Left- or right-wing, they're a bunch of braying donkeys in any day and age.

Well, seeing as how you are responding directly to my posts, it has EVERYTHING to do with it!

You see all along I've been ranting about how the media/popular-culture tends to exaggerate the "scientific consensus".

To wit:

There is no "scientific consensus" that the Earth is headed for runaway global warming in the next 100 years.

Strangelove: "Long-term trends cannot be predicted accurately (too many variables)."

Oh really? How come I can predict a summer that's warmer than winter then? Ever heard of "models"?

Obviously you're struggling to grasp this concept.

Obviously summers are warmer than winters.

What we're talking about here is global warming.

Please look it up and/or pay attention.

And hey they had models in the 70's too.

[Strangelove]

You and Doc still chasin' chicks that are too young for you both?

Well a gentleman doesn’t discuss such matters.

Nor does a gentleman Email risque pics!

[Per]

And hey they had models in the 70's too.

They certainly did. This one is from 1978:

[Sick Bunny]

I sense a great deal of angst.

Doc, for as long as I've known you, you always begin to "sense" something profound whenever somebody shoots a hole in your argument. I think it just might be your bladder.

BTW did you realize that scientific breakthroughs tend to smash "scientific consensus" to bits?

Yeah, and today's breakthrough is tomorrow's consensus. Hence my point that the "consensus" becomes less wrong over time, and somebody being wrong in the 70s is no knock on hard science being done today. As opposed to your brand of nihilistic ignorance, which isn't even useful enough to be called "wrong"...

And that “science” is completely different than both?

I gave you some hard science. A 1981 "paper" (that is, the result of long and careful study) by some "kid" (that is, a team of authors, each of whom knows infinitely more on the subject than you do) that makes some rather elaborate predictions of global temperatures. Which have since been borne out by the "cold hard facts" (more like gradually warming facts, but I digress). Yet if (according to you) all climatologists can do is extrapolate existing trends, then in 1981 they should have been predicting global cooling since (again according to you) that was the trend at the time. Not scientific enough for you, or would you prefer to keep whining about bug-eyed leftist media?

A quick googling tells me that the Bible predicts future runaway global warming!

And zombies. It also talks about invisible cloud people and floating zoos. Hmmm, I suspect it's the broken clock principle at work here...

And hey they had models in the 70's too.

I didn't mean Twiggy...

Well a gentleman doesn’t discuss such matters.

Nor does a gentleman Email risque pics!

Well, gentlemen don't butt into other gentlemen's conversations. Neither do they inflict their sordid fantasies on an unsuspecting public.

[Sick Bunny]

Obviously summers are warmer than winters.

Oh, and you're too easily confused by anal-ogies (not to be confused with per-ogies).

I apologize, and shall try to refrain from burdening you with them in the future.

[ODB]

I live in Saskatchewan... yep its cold as fuck here!

- I just purchased a new truck with a 6.2 liter motor
- I let it idle for a half hour before I drive anywhere
- I keep my garage heated all winter to a comfortable 24 degrees
- I heat my pool all summer to a ball bag sagging 90 degrees

I throw my beer cans in the garbage, sneak my used motor oil to the land fill and get a new plasma tv every second year simply because I can… I drain my hot tub every second week and completely drain my pool every spring (even though I dont really have to)

My carbon footprint is HUGE!

"Thank you for booking your flights mr. ODB. Would you be interested in Air Canada's Carbon Offset Program,to help you mitigate the environmental footprint of your travel"? "NO!"

So nobody better ever accuse me of not doing my part… to heat this Effer up!

[Sick Bunny]

So nobody better ever accuse me of not doing my part… to heat this Effer up!

Understandable, given that Saskatchewan can only improve from here...

Besides, think what all that new beachfront is going to do to the value of your property. You'll be golden. It's all these latte-swillin' lefties in BC that'll have to sink or swim.

[Strangelove]

I live in Saskatchewan... yep its cold as fuck here!

- I just purchased a new truck with a 6.2 liter motor
- I let it idle for a half hour before I drive anywhere
- I keep my garage heated all winter to a comfortable 24 degrees
- I heat my pool all summer to a ball bag sagging 90 degrees

I throw my beer cans in the garbage, sneak my used motor out to the land fill and get a new plasma tv every second year simply because I can… I drain my hot tub every second week and completely drain my pool every spring (even though I dont really have to)

My carbon footprint is HUGE!

"Thank you for booking your flights mr. ODB. Would you be interested in Air Canada's Carbon Offset Program,to help you mitigate the environmental footprint of your travel"? "NO!"

So nobody better ever accuse me of not doing my part… to heat this Effer up!

Thank you for doing your part good buddy!

After we melt the caps, just imagine the great cruise ship tours that will be available at the north pole!!

[Strangelove]

BTW did you realize that scientific breakthroughs tend to smash "scientific consensus" to bits?

Yeah, and today's breakthrough is tomorrow's consensus.

ENNNTCHNT wrong answer Hans! Wanna go for double Jeopardy where the stakes are really high??

"Scientific breakthroughs" are part of the scientific method.

"Scientific consensus" is NOT part of the scientific method.

Hence my point that the "consensus" becomes less wrong over time

DA FOCK??!!

Wot part of this did you not understand: "scientific breakthroughs tend to smash 'scientific consensus' to bits"

and somebody being wrong in the 70s is no knock on hard science being done today.

It wasn't "somebody" being wrong in the 70's, it was the "scientific consensus" being wrong in the 70's!

And scientific consensus is absolutely NOT "hard science".

Ummm is any of this getting through?

Yet if (according to you) all climatologists can do is extrapolate existing trends, then in 1981 they should have been predicting global cooling since (again according to you) that was the trend at the time.

I never said anything about 1981.

By 1981 I believe there was no scientific consensus on global warming/cooling.

By the way that..... paper ... of yours was off by 30%.

Strangelove: A quick googling tells me that the Bible predicts future runaway global warming! .

And zombies. It also talks about invisible cloud people and floating zoos.

Well the point remains that your "bible-thumpers" don't disagree with your most recent "scientific consensus".

So why did you bring em up?

Gotta be angst!

Well, gentlemen don't butt into other gentlemen's conversations.

So you and Farhan are “gentlemen”???

Is that what you’d have the jury believe?

[ODB]

YOU (edit, not speaking to anyone in this thread, just you in general)... can always drive one of these



I'm fine with what I have... but you can go ahead. There's plenty of room for your purse in the back seat!