Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Larry Goodenough » Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:23 am

tantalum wrote:Methinks that blogger will have some more ammo after the Hemsky 2yr/$5mil per year contract extension. He has 90 points since the start of 09/10 season (i.e. 2.75 seasons)



No, he's been ridiculing the team, media and fans for trying to run Hemsky out of town. He seems to think the Oilers long history of running guys out of town (ie Smyth) only to get Nilsson and O'Marra in return speaks to where they are at right now. He also points to the fact Edmonton has a shitty rep as they fall all over themselves trying to land free agents that don't want to be there and sandbag players that do want to stay.

And as a blogger inclined towards advanced stats, he suggests Hemsky is more valuable than the average fan gives him credit. Hemsky's only 28 yrs old, his value comes not in his rudimentary scoring stats, but in his quiet, two way effectiveness and his future ability to take on tough minutes for Edmonton against the opponent's top lines, freeing the younger forwards up to play more minutes against the opponents bottom 6 or 9 forwards. Without the likes of Hemsky, the Oilers would continue to rush their young players, as opposed to developing or easing them along.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby tantalum » Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:56 am

Well then the blogger is off his rocker. I absolutely agree that when Hemsky is healthy he's a good player. A very good one. Problem is he spends half the time he's in the lineup nursing some sort of injury which completely limits his effectiveness. And then he's on the IR for a god chunk of time. To me you don't give out $10 mil over two years for a guy that has 90 points in the last 220 games the Oilers have played. Yeah his PPG average is fine but you can't count on him being in the lineup. And honestly this year he has been terrible. That $5 mil a year could have been better spent by moving Hemsky for another bad contract that perhaps fills a more pressing need.

Pretty clear to me now that the bloggers MO is simply to take the opposite view of the media and try to craft arguments to suit that position. To me there isn't much argument that can be made to make this look like a good deal, it's the Oilers just spinning their wheels again. Hemsky has been an integral part to the failure and they reward that. They had the chance to get some assets for an oft-injured player that could better balance their team and declined to do so.

When all things are considered he's not a top 50 forward but is now going to be paid as if he is. It's a Tim Connolly type of contract which was just as stupid of a signing.

The Oilers have two players under 20 years old that are continually getting hurt as it is, one of whom while immensely talented is not even close to being physically ready to play 82 games in the NHL...The presence of Horcoff, Smyth and Hemsky isn't protecting them from anything. The Oilers continue to rush players and when they select top 5 at the darft, once again in October there will be yet another 18 year old in the lineup.

And along those same lines...Hemsky, Horcoff and Smyth make a combined $15.8 mil towards the salary cap to provide that supposed protection. Yes it's Edmonton but no one can tell me that $15.8 mil can't be better spent in other ways. I imagine Smyth will be next up for an extension and given he's outscored Hemsky the last 3 years he is going to get $4-5 mil on a similar 2 year deal so they will still be in that $15 mil range for that line that is taking the hard minutes. That line will not scare anyone (and really if it's the kids scoring coaches in the NHL will match up against them anyways for at least 41 games out of the year). In order for the line to take pressure off the kids it has to be good and quite frankly that's not a very good line. If you split them up and play them with the kids you again aren't protecting them from anything.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby damonberryman » Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:23 am

I do not work for the Alberta Chamber of Tourism or whatever. I guess I just hate to see any Canadian city get bad press. I have lived in Calgary for a year but not Edmonton. I remember being there in the Summer and how bad the mosquitos were coming off the river. I am pretty clear about kids growing up. I think any town in Canada that spares them the brainwashing about God and the American way is worth considering. I have attempted twice in a serious way to get my family back home but they are Yanks and like most other Americans they cannot feature anywhere being as good and this despite multiple visits and family up North.

I think in the end Edmonton will lose out on any real chance to build the winner they want so badly, and much of the reason will be the stuff mentioned. Cold, flat, long winters and short summers and so on, but putting that down is the same as putting Canada down to me and I have never appreciated Canada so much as I do after living here for over twenty years. I still am not a citizen. Already have Canadian and British citizenship. Maybe I should go for the trifecta and collect three pensions? I am sure there will be a law against it.

It is funny but I used to hate the Edmonton Eskimo team with Moon and Wilkinson. No matter how many points my Lions led by there was no safe lead against them. Then the Oil with Gretz, Messier, Kurri, Coffey, Fuhr, Anderson, Lowe, Huddy, Semenko and others. Kicked our ass like they owned it. Used to console myself by saying they needed to come out on top in one area becasue in every other way Van was so much better. Cannot imagine their reality w/o a winning team. Always enjoyed their fans as they seem to know hockey like most Canadian fans do. To sum it up, I do not want to lose a game to them but if it comes down to the Oil or the Flames versus an American based team I will support the Oil and the Flamers.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Potatoe1 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:45 am

damonberryman wrote:
Cold, flat, long winters and short summers and so on, but putting that down is the same as putting Canada down



No it isn't.

Every country, state, province, and city, has nice parts and crappy parts. Just because Edmonton sucks balls does not mean all of Cananda sucks.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Larry Goodenough » Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:45 am

tantalum wrote:Well then the blogger is off his rocker. I absolutely agree that when Hemsky is healthy he's a good player. A very good one. Problem is he spends half the time he's in the lineup nursing some sort of injury which completely limits his effectiveness. And then he's on the IR for a god chunk of time. To me you don't give out $10 mil over two years for a guy that has 90 points in the last 220 games the Oilers have played. Yeah his PPG average is fine but you can't count on him being in the lineup. And honestly this year he has been terrible. That $5 mil a year could have been better spent by moving Hemsky for another bad contract that perhaps fills a more pressing need.

Pretty clear to me now that the bloggers MO is simply to take the opposite view of the media and try to craft arguments to suit that position. To me there isn't much argument that can be made to make this look like a good deal, it's the Oilers just spinning their wheels again. Hemsky has been an integral part to the failure and they reward that. They had the chance to get some assets for an oft-injured player that could better balance their team and declined to do so.

When all things are considered he's not a top 50 forward but is now going to be paid as if he is. It's a Tim Connolly type of contract which was just as stupid of a signing.

The Oilers have two players under 20 years old that are continually getting hurt as it is, one of whom while immensely talented is not even close to being physically ready to play 82 games in the NHL...The presence of Horcoff, Smyth and Hemsky isn't protecting them from anything. The Oilers continue to rush players and when they select top 5 at the darft, once again in October there will be yet another 18 year old in the lineup.

And along those same lines...Hemsky, Horcoff and Smyth make a combined $15.8 mil towards the salary cap to provide that supposed protection. Yes it's Edmonton but no one can tell me that $15.8 mil can't be better spent in other ways. I imagine Smyth will be next up for an extension and given he's outscored Hemsky the last 3 years he is going to get $4-5 mil on a similar 2 year deal so they will still be in that $15 mil range for that line that is taking the hard minutes. That line will not scare anyone (and really if it's the kids scoring coaches in the NHL will match up against them anyways for at least 41 games out of the year). In order for the line to take pressure off the kids it has to be good and quite frankly that's not a very good line. If you split them up and play them with the kids you again aren't protecting them from anything.


There might be some truth to that. But he thinks the Oilers are George Costanza and almost every move they have made over the last 7 years has blown up in their face. So he promotes the opposite George approach, because what they have been doing isn't working.

He's also backed up his opinions with facts. He showed Tambellini with capgeek up on his computer and looking at rudimentary stats. He argued fringe 34 year olds should not be getting 3 year deals by showing a sampling of comparables and how their games played and production drop off significantly. He had a run down of Hemsky's advanced stats and how he routinely faces the top opposition and still drives play forward. He compared a 37 year old UFA Sutton to a sampling of other recent 6-7 UFA d-men and showed Tambellini paid almost double what the going rate was.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Potatoe1 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 2:31 pm

I actually have no problem with the Hemsky deal.

If it were more then 2 years then it would be an issue, but an over payment on a short term deal isn't a big issue.

Oilers wont be a cap team next year and the year after that he will only have 1 year left and could be easily moved. not a lot of risk here.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby tantalum » Sat Feb 25, 2012 2:41 pm

Again I don't have an issue with Hemsky as a player. When he's healthy he's a good one and worth his salary for the night. Problem is his health. He can't stay healthy and spends half the year nursing an injury (which renders him ineffective) or out of the lineup altogether. I also think that given the lack of available scoring forwards on deadline day that the Oilers could have received a decent piece in a deal. He is one of the few assets that could have actually been worth something for them.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Potatoe1 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 3:09 pm

tantalum wrote:Again I don't have an issue with Hemsky as a player. When he's healthy he's a good one and worth his salary for the night. Problem is his health. He can't stay healthy and spends half the year nursing an injury (which renders him ineffective) or out of the lineup altogether.


Again, whats the downside?

If they dont sign him they probably cant get anyone in the summer that brings better value, and if they need the space the following season then Hemsky can most likely be moved given his term.

If this were a 4 year deal I would be right there with you, but given the term it's a low risk high reward thing IMO.

I also think that given the lack of available scoring forwards on deadline day that the Oilers could have received a decent piece in a deal. He is one of the few assets that could have actually been worth something for them.


If they had been able to move him for a young blue liner who could play in their top 4 next season then I agree with you, but that player might not have been available.

What they shouldn't do is move him for draft picks of longer term prospects, they have enough of that, what they need to add is players who can help them be more competitive next season.

That team needs to start winning some games or their kids are going to continue floundering.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby tantalum » Sat Feb 25, 2012 3:25 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:Again, whats the downside?

If they dont sign him they probably can't get anyone in the summer that brings better value, and if they need the space the following season then Hemsky can most likely be moved given his term.

If this were a 4 year deal I would be right there with you, but given the term it's a low risk high reward thing IMO.


The downside is they will once again have $15 mil tied up in a line that quite frankly isn't very good that is supposed to "protect" the kids. Maybe they won;t be a cap team, but right now they have $20 mil of cap space and need to sign Dubnyk and SMyth....both of whom if histroy has shown as anything will get more than they are worth. They then need to sign another 3 players whcih will bring the cap space down to $10 mil or so....and they haven't made any improvements yet. Improvements cost money.

The downside is that now they won't know what sort of offers might have come their way monday morning as the deadline ticked near. If nothing comes sign him. If he is annoyed they didn't sign him before the deal then he doesn't really want to be an Oiler anyways.

That team needs to start winning some games or their kids are going to continue floundering.


I don't disagree. Signing the same surrounding core that isn't helping them now doesn't do that IMO. It's reminiscent of Nonis keeping on a failed core and being surprised they failed.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Potatoe1 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 5:43 pm

The downside is they will once again have $15 mil tied up in a line that quite frankly isn't very good that is supposed to "protect" the kids.


I'm not sure what Hemsky has to do with the horrible contract they gave Horcroft.

And the fact that the line "isnt very good" has nothing to do with Hemsky who is a very good player when healthy (and typically plays on the first line)

Maybe they won;t be a cap team, but right now they have $20 mil of cap space and need to sign Dubnyk and SMyth....both of whom if histroy has shown as anything will get more than they are worth. They then need to sign another 3 players whcih will bring the cap space down to $10 mil or so....and they haven't made any improvements yet. Improvements cost money.


Yes and if they don't sign Hensky they have to make even more improvements.....

I don't really get your point here. 5 mill on Hemsky is perhaps a small over payment but unless it inhibits your ability to sign other players then it doesn't matter.

I dont think a short term deal like this one will make any difference to whom they do or do not sign. Take the Hemsky contract out and they have 25 to 28 mill with 15 players signed, who are they going to spend that money on?

Frankly given some of the bad players the Oil have wasted money on tying up the extra cap room might be a good thing. At least Hemsky is actually a good player.



The downside is that now they won't know what sort of offers might have come their way monday morning as the deadline ticked near. If nothing comes sign him. If he is annoyed they didn't sign him before the deal then he doesn't really want to be an Oiler anyways.


Like I said if the right defenseman had been available then I agree it's a poorly timed signing. That said I think the odds are low that an ideal situation like that would have materialized. The last thing the "buyers" want to give up are cheap defenseman who can actually play.

What are the odds of the Canucks giving up Tanev, I would say fairly close to zero given he will probably give us 16 to 20 mpg next year at 900k.

Gillis has said numerous times that the most valuable asset in the league are young defenseman on ELC's who can actually play significant minutes.

The odds of Hemsky bringing a player like that are slim IMO

That said if we see a player like that moved for a veteran skill forward then I will agree with you.

That team needs to start winning some games or their kids are going to continue floundering.


I don't disagree. Signing the same surrounding core that isn't helping them now doesn't do that IMO. It's reminiscent of Nonis keeping on a failed core and being surprised they failed.[/quote]


They aren't losing because of Hemsky. They are losing because they don't have enough good NHL players. If they don't sign Hemsky then they have even fewer good NHL players.

If the Oilers had 12 good NHL players they wouldn't be terrible, but they have closer to 6 or 7, and Hemsky is one of them.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Potatoe1 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 7:11 pm

BTW people love to lament about the Oilers, but look at the avs right now leading Detroit 3-0.

Landeskog is an absolute stud and it looking like the next Peter Forsberg. They also have Duschane and Stasney up front, as well as quality young role players like Orilley, Downie, and Winnik.

More importantly they have a good goalie, and quality young defenseman like Johnson, and Eliott.

Right now the AV's are miles in front of the Oilers.

Oiler Angst
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Strangelove » Sat Feb 25, 2012 7:42 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:BTW people love to lament about the Oilers, but look at the avs right now leading Detroit 3-0.

Landeskog is an absolute stud and it looking like the next Peter Forsberg. They also have Duschane and Stasney up front, as well as quality young role players like Orilley, Downie, and Winnik.

More importantly they have a good goalie, and quality young defenseman like Johnson, and Eliott.

Right now the AV's are miles in front of the Oilers.

Oiler Angst


Potski Downie is more than a role player, the kid is a tad whack, but definitely has offensive upside

(5 points in 2 games since trade).

And hellooooo: Mueller (23) might become the biggest star of the bunch if he stays concussion-free.

Yup, the Avs are gonna be scary good pretty soon. :drink:

EDIT: and oh yeah Ryan O'Reilly :thumbs:
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby dbr » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:58 pm

Totally agree with Pot about the Hemsky contract, given the Oilers history in unrestricted free agency they simply can't expect to do better than him in the free agent market - and they can't just keep losing like they have for five years now and expect things to turn around on their own.

The Hemsky deal is a bad one in that he is overpaid and in that he will probably miss 40 games and play 20 more at less than 100% over those two seasons, but it's not like it's going to cost them a better player.

The Oilers should be much more worried about what Dellow points out - tacking extra years onto deals for players who are all but finished (Eric Belanger) or opening the vault and paying their young players based on performances they may not be able to repeat (Jordan Eberle).. by comparison giving Hemsky $5m per when he should be closer to $4m per is a pretty minor issue.
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Larry Goodenough » Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:52 am

Here's the latest in Incompetentville...

Lowe and Tambellini can't figure out the 4 recalls after the trade deadline rule.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=4536
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Re: Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

Postby Fred » Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:04 pm

This rule ie call ups being returned immediately doesn't really matter in the East, most teams have their farms teams either close by or in the case of TO in the same city. But in the West it's a huge obstacle. The assignment should be the factor not the travel required. The rule is from the last century
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