Are the Sedins on the Decline?

[mathonwy]

I just remind myself that this is just a thread on a hockey board and none of the opinions expressed really make ANY difference whatsoever.

This long ass season ending Sedin slump is something new to everyone (including the Sedins) so of course, everyone has their opinions on why it's happening.

And inevitably, publicly expressing those opinions will evoke opinions from others and so on and so on.

Some people choose to look at the macro picture and some people choose to look at only the micro picture.

Macro, we're still sitting pretty point wise heading into the playoffs, Canucks are going to turn it on come the post season, the core is still young'ish, President's Cup last year, two former Art Ross trophy winners, one former Selke trophy winner, IE, hope and faith.

Micro, what the fuck is happening with the team? The Nucks have been a funk since January and that funk is pervasive throughout the entire team. Our trade deadline deals haven't exactly paid off, our goaltending has been shit, our special teams %s are sinking like the titanic and our money guys are completely cold (2nd line not included).

Regular season is tough when you've been to game 7 of the SC final and it's not like you can turn off your emotion chip when you're watching the team that you love so much.

So I take the middle road. Hope and faith for the post season but unhappy caution right now. I am definitely not happy with what I'm seeing from our top line and I sure hope to whatever hockey god is out there that this slump is just that.. a slump and not signifying anything bigger.

PS. I voted for we're doomed. Ahh who cares. It's just a poll so lets have some fun with it.

[coco_canuck]

I just thought I'd offer a more realistic argument for a non-"everything's fine" vote than we've seen from most espousing that view in the thread so far.

I understand that, but that depends on how you're interpreting the "everything's fine" crew.

It goes without saying that players production typically decline a bit or at least levels out as they get older, so I no one is disputing the fact that the Twins are unlikely to be 90-100 point players for the next 7 years.

But, is this recent stretch a conclusive enough sample to justify the level of apprehension we've seen?

Besides, we saw the last two years with the Twins etching career highs that their playoff production remained in the point-a-game pace for the playoffs.

So, does a say 10% reduction in regular season scoring necessarily mean their playoff totals will also decline by a similar amount?

For instance, in his late 20's, Yzerman went from scoring 100-150 points a year to being a point-a-game player in the regular season, but his playoff performances actually improved.

So what's the rational debate?

That the twins may no longer be a 100 point players, and may only be in the 80 point range for the next 4-6 years?

The most ardent Sedin supporter wouldn't necessarily have any issue with that type of projection, but does it mean we should worry about the Twins ability to lead the team come the playoffs?

[dbr]

Coco I pretty much completely agree... which means I don't really have much else to say.

@don.. hey I'm just trying not to single anyone out at this point.

[donlever]

Espousing assuage as it were....

[Tiger]

I am finding the "New look" Sedin line interesting. This is , to my knowledge , the first time they've been coupled to a winger that isn't known to go to the dirty areas and fight it out in front of the net. It maybe a way to get the Sedin's or Raymond to alter their offensive game. Or maybe by adding a speedy back checker it will improve their defensive play? Unless the Sedins can add a new wrinkle or Raymond develops a passion for going to the dirty areas its got to fail.. 3 forwards playing on the outside perimeterjust isn't going to work..

PS Farhan.. quit smoking that stuff your overloaded with delusions.. Kesler is our best 2 way player but to use him strictly as a Shutdown guy would be a waste of his talent.That is why we brought in Paullson and Manny. His play this season is the anomaly - explained simply by injury and no chance to build up over the summer .. probably coming back a little to soon from his injury.. Each year up to this year his stats have improved and I expect that next year will be a banner year from him and his new linemates..

[mathonwy]

I just thought I'd offer a more realistic argument for a non-"everything's fine" vote than we've seen from most espousing that view in the thread so far.

I understand that, but that depends on how you're interpreting the "everything's fine" crew.

It goes without saying that players production typically decline a bit or at least levels out as they get older, so I no one is disputing the fact that the Twins are unlikely to be 90-100 point players for the next 7 years.

But, is this recent stretch a conclusive enough sample to justify the level of apprehension we've seen?

Besides, we saw the last two years with the Twins etching career highs that their playoff production remained in the point-a-game pace for the playoffs.

So, does a say 10% reduction in regular season scoring necessarily mean their playoff totals will also decline by a similar amount?

For instance, in his late 20's, Yzerman went from scoring 100-150 points a year to being a point-a-game player in the regular season, but his playoff performances actually improved.

So what's the rational debate?

That the twins may no longer be a 100 point players, and may only be in the 80 point range for the next 4-6 years?

The most ardent Sedin supporter wouldn't necessarily have any issue with that type of projection, but does it mean we should worry about the Twins ability to lead the team come the playoffs?

Very good question coco. What IS the rational debate?

I guess, the rational debate begins and ends with, how are we going to win the cup.

Right?

In my mind, that's the end goal and that's why this thread was started.

Based on the composition of this team, how many goals do we need to score and how many shots do we need to stop to win a cup.

And out of that number of goals scored, how many of those do we need out of the Sedins?

Based on historical numbers of top NHL point getters and their inevitable decline, who is closest comparison to the Sedins and how did their career go?

[UWSaint]

I am finding the "New look" Sedin line interesting. This is , to my knowledge , the first time they've been coupled to a winger that isn't known to go to the dirty areas and fight it out in front of the net.

Markus Naslund, his last season in Vancouver. Lots of line juggling that year, but at least two long term stints with the Sedins. Results were mixed.

As for the Raymond add, do not discount that this might have everything to do with getting a pitch perfect 3rd line, one which Burrows is a major asset. MayRay can work on the Sedin line--anyone can have some productivity with the Sedins--the question is going to be the marginal improvement of the third line vs. the marginal decline on the first line. My guess is we will see Burrows back with the Sedins in a short bit. But if the Kesler line is clicking, there is no need to load up the Sedin line to its maximum potential if that means leaving the Pahlsson line without a guy that can finish.

Generally to this thread, if one doesn't get the Art Ross, the Sedin line is in decline....

To me, they have had more flat games this year, but I think they have been bunched up. I wonder more about nagging injuries than a decline, but a decline to a point a game production would be predictable and would still have them easily living up to their contract.

[coco_canuck]

Coco I pretty much completely agree... which means I don't really have much else to say.

@don.. hey I'm just trying not to single anyone out at this point.

Espousing assuage as it were....

I've missed the fun banter between the old Central Crew.

[Tiger]

Mathonwy said :

Very good question coco. What IS the rational debate?

I guess, the rational debate begins and ends with, how are we going to win the cup.

Right?

In my mind, that's the end goal and that's why this thread was started.

Based on the composition of this team, how many goals do we need to score and how many shots do we need to stop to win a cup.

And out of that number of goals scored, how many of those do we need out of the Sedins?

Based on historical numbers of top NHL point getters and their inevitable decline, who is closest comparison to the Sedins and how did their career go?

Maybe a second part of the equation for winning the Stanley .. is how bad will their +/- be this playoffs? Not really as concerned by their offensive play as by their lack of defensive play.. They had the worst +/- of any forward in last years playoffs.. Hopefully this year it will improve.. A small decline in their offensive production will be more than offset by better defensive numbers

[coco_canuck]

Based on the composition of this team, how many goals do we need to score and how many shots do we need to stop to win a cup.

And out of that number of goals scored, how many of those do we need out of the Sedins?

Based on historical numbers of top NHL point getters and their inevitable decline, who is closest comparison to the Sedins and how did their career go?

It does come down to winning a cup, that is the number one objective.

Despite their recent slump, I don't see a reason to be any more doubtful of the Twins leading the Canucks to a cup than a couple of months ago.

That's not to say the Twins haven't' had disappointing playoff series, and that the offensive onus of this team still falls on the shoulders of Hank and Danny.

Since the Twins actually peaked at 30-31, it's difficult to find completely analogues comparisons, but Yzerman is probably one of the better comparisons since his regular season production began declining at 28-29, and he won his first cup at 31, after basically being a point-a-game player in the regular season.

But even Yzerman is a tough comparison because he revamped his game as he got older and became an elite 2-way centre.

It comes down to having a great team and performing in the playoffs, and Yzerman became a better playoff performer as he got older, and we all know the strength of those Wings teams in the mid-to-late 90's.

[donlever]

I've paid zero attention to the scoring race this year so for shits and giggles I took a stroll over to NHL.com to see where our boys are at what with all this doom and gloom being prognosticated.

Facts...

Both in the top 15 of league scoring.

Dank 3 points out of the top 10.

Hank 5 out of the top 5.

Both have plus/minus totals placing them in the top 5 of the leading 15 scorers in the league.

Dudes....

[Aaronp18]

Dank 3 points out of the top 10.

Hank 5 out of the top 5.

Yeah and both can make up that gap in a single game against the Oilers.

[Farhan Lalji]

PS Farhan.. quit smoking that stuff your overloaded with delusions.. Kesler is our best 2 way player but to use him strictly as a Shutdown guy would be a waste of his talent.That is why we brought in Paullson and Manny. His play this season is the anomaly - explained simply by injury and no chance to build up over the summer .. probably coming back a little to soon from his injury.. Each year up to this year his stats have improved and I expect that next year will be a banner year from him and his new linemates..

Tiger,

Lol, quit trolling me. You are not this stupid and I know that you have better reading comprehension abilities than this.

I never said or implied that Kesler should be used strictly as a shut down guy. What I did say however, was that Kesler is not only our best shut down center, but also has the ability to score goals WHILE shutting down.

I could see Kesler being very similar to what Steve Yzerman did when the Wings won their cups.

[Farhan Lalji]

Tiger,

Lol, quit trolling me. You are not this stupid and I know that you have better reading comprehension abilities than this.

I never said or implied that Kesler should be used strictly as a shut down guy. What I did say however, was that Kesler is not only our best shut down center, but also has the ability to score goals WHILE shutting down.

I could see Kesler being very similar to what Steve Yzerman did when the Wings won their cups.

For example - the Detroit Redwings often employed the following lines in 97 and 98 when they won their cups.

Kozlov-Fedorov-Brown
Shanahan-Larionov-Lapointe
Holmstrom-Yzerman-Mcarty
Kocur-Draper-Maltby

Although Yzerman's line was the "shut down" / checking line, they were still expected to play solid two-way hockey and score regularly. They did.

Oddly enough, the Fedorov line actually ended up playing LESS than both Yzerman's and Shanny's.

[RoyalDude]

Ok..umm...

Are you seriously whining about sending off two 4th round draft picks and Taylor Ellington for a NHL ready player that plays awesome SHUTDOWN hockey?

Marcus Foligno was drafted in the 4th round by Buffalo. The same draft as Zack Kassian who went 13th overall.