Are the Sedins on the Decline?

[Arachnid]

The bottom line for me is, the Sedins turn 32 on September 26 before the start of next season, they ain't getting any younger. It always seems to me that you start to notice a decline in a players game around that 32-33 mark in age. Which tells me that we have roughly 1 to 2 seasons at the most with Sedin dominance. All I'm saying is, that when we do see true evidence of a decline in the Sedins play, which will be sooner than you think, the Canucks will start to slip down in the standings, obviously, cause lets be honest, the Sedins are carrying the torch on this team right now and their ain't nothing of that kind of star quality and two players to boot, coming up in the system to replace them.

When the Sedins go, the Canucks go. Dark Days of Hockey will be back in Vancouver once again.

Why is that such a bad thing? If fickle Canuck fans do one thing right (and corporate Laugh fans do not) is vote with their dollar. There are better things to do in Van that watch mediocre hockey (we'll forget the past few weeks shall we...). After '94 we sucked into the 2000's and ticket sales reflected that, they had to rebuild and draft well...that's why Boston, Chicago, St. Louis did....dark days they are not, smart days....

[RoyalDude]

Kesler and Booth are only 26.

You're a beaut, Nucklehead. Kesler turns 28 this coming August 31st and Booth turns 28 this coming November 24th. Both were born in the year of 1984, do the math.

[RoyalDude]

Think Iginla in Calgary, that's what the Sedins will be in Vancouver. You don't trade these franchise players unless they WANT to go.

Oh I agree alright, it's my nightmare coming true. I've actually used this same comparison as to which direction Gillis is taking us in. Gillis is making the same safe and boring hockey decisions as Daryl Sutter did with no thought for the future. We are becoming the new Calgary Flames. A one-line scoring threat with the aging Sedins, decent goaltending, and a whole bunch of middle-aged, middling shut-down blue collar type hockey players. Exciting.

[Island Nucklehead]

Think Iginla in Calgary, that's what the Sedins will be in Vancouver. You don't trade these franchise players unless they WANT to go.

Oh I agree alright, it's my nightmare coming true. I've actually used this same comparison as to which direction Gillis is taking us in. Gillis is making the same safe and boring hockey decisions as Daryl Sutter did with no thought for the future. We are becoming the new Calgary Flames. A one-line scoring threat with the aging Sedins, decent goaltending, and a whole bunch of middle-aged, middling shut-down blue collar type hockey players. Exciting.

Right. So Gillis should trade the Sedins because they're 30 and we don't want them to end up like Iginla? Guy hasn't scored less than 30 since the Sedins have been in the league buds. If there's a problem in Calgary, it's got very little to do with Iginla.

I don't know where you've been recently, but the Canucks are one of the deepest teams in the league at all positions. The one-line thing is horse-shit. Booth is playing at nearly a 30 goal pace with Vancouver. Obviously there's a guy named Kesler (apparently he's 27, whoops) who won a Selke while scoring 40 last year. Higgins is playing at a 50-point clip also. 2 of the D in the top 15 scoring etc. etc.

I know you'd prefer a third line of Raymond-Hodgson-Grabner, but most people realize hockey teams need BALANCE, and those "middle-aged, middling shut-down blue collar type hockey players" (re: depth) are what's allowing the Canucks to be the only team in the top-5 of both offense and defense.

[Farhan Lalji]

I'll say one thing here:

Although I am happy with the trades that Gillis made on trade deadline day (I wrote a shitload on Facebook about my analysis but never really talked about it on here), here is one thing that I think bears worth mentioning:

Even though we have Malhottra, Lapierre, and now Pahlsson, our best shut down center is still........ Ryan Kesler. Period. And unlike the aforementioed, Kesler is a threat to score goals despite being even better and shutting down oppoments. Honestly? People talk about what he did against Nashville last year, but I think that performance was a bit of an anomaly. The Ryan Kesler that really impressed the hell out of me was the one that almost completely shut down Jonathan Toews and Joe Thornton.

In the not-so-distant future, I REALLY think it would be in the Canucks' best interests to get a young center that is on the verge of superstardom......as I feel that this move, and this move alone, would ensure the Canucks being great for a number of years.

-When the Sedin's inevitably regress in 18-24 months, they would still be extremely dangerous in a 2nd line capacity.....to the point where they'd be the best 2nd line in the NHL.
-Kesler would anchor what would be the best shut down line in the NHL.......one of which that could sore regularly.
-Zack Kassian, if all goes according to plan, will be a very very solid complement to a first line "alpha" superstar (kind of like what Burrows is to the twins right now.......or what Morrison was to Naslund back in the day).

Canuck lines in future.

###-new young superstar center-Kassian
Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Kesler-Booth
###-Lapierre-###

Hamhuis-Bieksa
Edler-Gragnani
Ballard-####

Luongo
Lack

Offer for new superstar center = Schroeder, Schneider, Tanev

[wienerdog]

Even though we have Malhottra, Lapierre, and now Pahlsson, our best shut down center is still........ Ryan Kesler. Period.

Um, no. Period.

[damonberryman]

The easy answer is no. In the same season, 2012 they have been near the top of scoring. Their plus/minus is good. How do you stay motivated 82 long games when EVERYONE is waiting for the playoffs?

[Island Nucklehead]

In the not-so-distant future, I REALLY think it would be in the Canucks' best interests to get a young center that is on the verge of superstardom......as I feel that this move, and this move alone, would ensure the Canucks being great for a number of years.

Offer for new superstar center = Schroeder, Schneider, Tanev

Isn't that what EVERY team is going to want? A Tavares, Crosby, Malkin, Toews type player? That package sure as shit isn't going to get you a budding superstar, even if one were available. Think Schneider, Edler, First rounders... ie severely weakening our depth (which is why we're successful in the first place).

We're going to have to face reality someday that the guys playing through the Sedins as they decline probably won't be as productive. That doesn't mean we will see an immediate drop-off in the standings. A lot can happen, we could land Shea Weber... AV has shown he can work a system with what his roster provides. Although I don't expect him to be the coach for the next 5 years, it's safe to say the franchise will bring in a coach suited to deal with the realities on the ground (ie move to a more defensive system).

Ultimately, it should go without saying we'll need a rebuild/retool at some point. That point probably isn't coming this summer, or next summer. We're well positioned to be competitive for the foreseeable future and this thread is probably 3 years away from being relevant.

[donlever]

...one of the major reasons players begin to decline in their 30's is legs which equates to skating.

They lose that 1/2 step.

The Sedins never had that half step as we know yet their fitness is well beyond the norm.

Also a major part of their game is cerebral.

The expectation of their decline over the next year or so is perhaps a bit quick on the draw.

[dbr]

I wanna know which shitheads said yes the twins are declining and those who are on the fence, and aren't sure yet so I can refresh my mental "List." Topper's list doesn't apply as well to these parts unfortunately.

I'm on the fence. I don't see what's so objectionable about that.. Personally, I expect the Sedins are going to remain effective players throughout their 30s for the reason Don mentioned above - as well as their fantastic commitment and work ethic - but how that manifests itself in terms of point totals and so on remains to be seen.

Like I said earlier I think it is most likely just a regression to the mean but even if you throw out every game since their recent pointless streak or even every game since Feb 9th (since they had another brief pointless streak in there) they are still on pace for 85-90 points - which is great, but is not the type of numbers we are accustomed to them putting up the last two years.

Is this simply a regression to the mean, and the Sedins have always been 90 point players in Art Ross trophy winners' clothing? Is it an off season and next year they will be back at the top of the leaderboard? Or is this small step down the first of a few that could take five or six years to reduce these players to mere second line scorers?

I don't think any of those positions are terribly unreasonable (nor do I think even the most pessimistic takes on this situation are reason for Canucks fans to crack open each others skulls and feast on the goo inside..), nor do I think a wait-and-see approach is out of the question.

[donlever]

I'm on the fence. I don't see what's so objectionable about that..

To speak for Coco I believe his response was from a place where he is simply tired of hearing negatives about the twins.

From day one in Sweden when we were told they couldn't skate these guys have been bashed around by fans (as you and we all are aware).

Now a decade (or so) in and as an integral cog in a highly successful machine we get to hear the "are they declining" mantra already.

Add this to the always on the cusp impending sense of doom some Canuck fans enjoy espousing and the we're all gonna die rants tend to become burdensome at best.

[the Dogsalmon]

i get it...sarcasm...i was worried we were going in the tank...

[coco_canuck]

I don't think any of those positions are terribly unreasonable (nor do I think even the most pessimistic takes on this situation are reason for Canucks fans to crack open each others skulls and feast on the goo inside..), nor do I think a wait-and-see approach is out of the question.

This:

To speak for Coco I believe his response was from a place where he is simply tired of hearing negatives about the twins.

From day one in Sweden when we were told they couldn't skate these guys have been bashed around by fans (as you and we all are aware).

Now a decade (or so) in and as an integral cog in a highly successful machine we get to hear the "are they declining" mantra already.

Add this to the always on the cusp impending sense of doom some Canuck fans enjoy espousing and the we're all gonna die rants tend to become burdensome at best.

The entire discussion has started out of a disingenuous and knee-jerk position.

We know the ones who can have an intelligent discussion on the subject on this board, but many can't, and the more public and embarrassing segment of this team's fan base and media have directed the conversation to being one of impending doom and a supposedly dramatic regression by the twins.

They're 32, and were playing at a +90 point pace up until the past 15 or so games.

If the discussion is that the twins may not duplicate their career highs of the past couple of years, well sure, they're in their early 30's and are unlikely to match a previous career high. But does that constitute a regression or a levelling out of performance vis-a-vis age, experience and necessity?

Obviously players are typically less effective as they get older, but to varying degrees, and if the Twins are 80-90 point players from this point on as opposed to 90-100, is that the type of regression that deserves the breathless debate and hyperbole?

It's just funny how this entire debate has been framed, and I still stand by everything I said in my previous posts (invert the sarcasm of course).

[dbr]

Yeah no I get it, in the face of such overwhelming negativity why not just have a little fun rather than engaging the people getting into hysterics.

I just thought I'd offer a more realistic argument for a non-"everything's fine" vote than we've seen from most espousing that view in the thread so far.

[donlever]

...from most espousing that view in the thread so far.

lol

Still the comedian eh dave?