Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby ESQ » Mon Mar 05, 2012 12:45 pm

Larry Goodenough wrote:But when you hear that Chiarelli has internalized some data that he hasn’t released to the public, and Burke goes off pretty convincingly against the statistics, (calling much of it “horseshit” and falsely states that “nobody has ever won a championship with Moneyball”) and looking at the position of those two teams in the standings, it’s apparent that there’s at least some value to this.

Great find. its quotes like these that make me discount any excuse Burke may have had about the state of the team when he inherited it. Every GM of a cup-contending team uses advanced stats as a tool to give their team a competitive advantage - MG, Chiarelli, Holland, Bowman, probably Holmgren from the bold moves they've made.

I wonder if McPhee uses the same philosophy as Burke. Without Ovechkin falling into his lap, would the Capitals be considered cup-contenders the past couple years? He's been at a loss to get the most out of his stars, and hasn't had a ton of luck with his acquired veterans, and has ultimately taken a team boasting one of the most skilled players of all time a perennial underachiever.

One guy I'm curious about is Pittsburgh's GM Ray Shero. He's had the two superstar kids, but unlike McPhee he's made it to the Championship. However, he did that with Malkin and Crosby on ELCs, which is a massive advantage for any GM. Last year was very impressive with both injured, but this year they're being carried by Malkin having what may be a career year. And at the end of the day, Malkin + Crosby > Ovechkin + Backstrom.
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby Fred » Mon Mar 05, 2012 1:36 pm

Puck Prospectus

The writer is actually a baseball guru from what I can gather,

MatthewColler
Staff writer at Business of Sports Network United States | Sports Current: Producer / Update Anchor at WGR Sports Radio 550, Sports Business Reporter at Venues Today Magazine, Staff writer at Business of Sports Network Past: Play-by-play Broadcaster at Batavia Muckdogs, Producer/Anchor at WGR550 Education: State University of New York College at Brockport

The actual editor Corey Perryman is another baseball wizz from Florida, ask questions of them and if you put aside their statistical endeavours are out of their depth.


The Sabres' organization understandably had serious doubts about Kassian as the next Lucic. Regier recognized, however, that Kassian's reputation still made him valuable. He was able to deal the 21-year-old winger to Vancouver, a team in desperate need for toughness. In exchange, the Sabres received a young center with scoring capability—something they've lacked since Briere and Drury's exits.


The top team in the league is desperate!!! ....give me strength. Would we like toughness, I'd agree with that, but frankly we were not an abstract failure without Kassian. Bitz because of waiver formalities is not with the roster, Volpatti is injured as is Pinizzotto ( who I suspect may be ready come the play-offs ) Lapierre and Weise are all decent in their own way. ( I think Weise...hand injury... will be in a look and learn phase right now what he needs to bring )
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Re: Advanced sMoneypuck

Postby Potatoe1 » Mon Mar 05, 2012 6:56 pm

Old news here but in this clip AV specifically states that the coaching staff specifically tracks and then analyses scoring chances for and against.

http://v.canucks.com/wXCmBK #Canucks

To be honest any team that isn't doing this is out of their mind.

Having the coach rank each player out of 5 is laughably ineffective IMO.

Further to that the Canucks should be, and likely are, tracking scoring chances for other teams based on their own system for every other team in the league. Doing this would cost them very little and would give them a big advantage in terms of pro scouting.
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Re: Advanced sMoneypuck

Postby Larry Goodenough » Tue Mar 06, 2012 12:05 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:Old news here but in this clip AV specifically states that the coaching staff specifically tracks and then analyses scoring chances for and against.

http://v.canucks.com/wXCmBK #Canucks

To be honest any team that isn't doing this is out of their mind.

Having the coach rank each player out of 5 is laughably ineffective IMO.

Further to that the Canucks should be, and likely are, tracking scoring chances for other teams based on their own system for every other team in the league. Doing this would cost them very little and would give them a big advantage in terms of pro scouting.



Well, Edmonton just announced they're going to start and Toronto calls it horseshit. They both suck at building winning teams. I see smoke....
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby Larry Goodenough » Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:31 pm

It's being reported Vigneault said this today on Higgins...

Chris, in the last couple of games, when we analyse the game and do the scoring chances, he’s been a plus-5 in the last two. He hasn’t found the back of the net, but he’s been part of a lot of offensive scoring chances and they’ve been real responsible defensively, so I like the way that looks.

PITB took this info and blogged about how the team might track scoring chances.

http://vansunsportsblogs.com/2012/03/06 ... g-chances/
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby donlever » Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:46 pm

...Higgins hits 3 posts of late.

The one in Dallas goes in and we win the game.

Raymond on the other hand, as wonderful as his "other" attributes are, has apparently garnered 3 points in his last 16 games (someone elses info, I have not confirmed).

Not quite top 6 material one could safely construe.
A different goddamn hockey talk messageboard!
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby dbr » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:56 pm

In the hockey version of "they needed a study for that?" West Point mathemetician Brian MacDonald released a US Military Academy study indicating that being outhit in the NHL is strong predictor of increased offensive production.

Link

In seriousness, it's disappointing that the article notes that this measure is a more accurate predictor of offensive production than shot totals but makes no mention of how it compares to shot attempts. It would have also been nice to see a comparison of hit differential to goal differential.

At any rate, interesting to see someone in the US Military studying the NHL..
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby clem » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:58 pm

Yup.

Skilled players don't hit so much & score more (in the regular season). Knuckle draggers hit more.

Another example of military intelligence.

When do we get the study on the relationship between keeping pucks out of the net & winning?
More importantly, how much do they pay for these studies - & how do you get a contract?
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby dbr » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:27 pm

Well that and you can't throw a hit if you have possession of the puck. You can however score goals.
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby Benjo » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:33 pm

dbr wrote:Well that and you can't throw a hit if you have possession of the puck. You can however score goals.


The same line of thinking can be applied to blocking a ton of shots as a negative stat as it could mean you have a hard time getting the puck out of your own zone. Ryan Johnson is a perfect example of this.
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby Larry Goodenough » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:43 pm

dbr wrote:In the hockey version of "they needed a study for that?" West Point mathemetician Brian MacDonald released a US Military Academy study indicating that being outhit in the NHL is strong predictor of increased offensive production.

Link

In seriousness, it's disappointing that the article notes that this measure is a more accurate predictor of offensive production than shot totals but makes no mention of how it compares to shot attempts. It would have also been nice to see a comparison of hit differential to goal differential.

At any rate, interesting to see someone in the US Military studying the NHL..



Nice find. The article also speaks about predictors of 2nd half totals vs first half. Here's a blog about predictors showed Toronto was actually playing above their heads just to be in 8th place and how their inevitable their 2nd half collapse was. It also spoke about how Anaheim bucked the percentages last season in their second half and they should have seen this seasons struggles coming.

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/14/the ... regression
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby Strangelove » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:39 pm

dbr wrote:In the hockey version of "they needed a study for that?" West Point mathemetician Brian MacDonald released a US Military Academy study indicating that being outhit in the NHL is strong predictor of increased offensive production.

Link

In seriousness, it's disappointing that the article notes that this measure is a more accurate predictor of offensive production than shot totals but makes no mention of how it compares to shot attempts. It would have also been nice to see a comparison of hit differential to goal differential.

At any rate, interesting to see someone in the US Military studying the NHL..


And the attempted geekification of hockey continues. :evil:

So ummm don't ever hit and your team will outscore (read defeat) the opposition?? :roll:

That yankee nerd perhaps should've attempted to break down good hits vs bad hits (hitter giving up position), offensive zone vs defensive zone vs neutral zone, bumps vs solid hits vs bonecrushing hits... and how about factoring in which buildings the hits were thrown in (in some buildings they tend to count little bumps as hits, in others they are more generous in recording hits). Should a proper geek take into account how many hits led directly to a scoring chance/goal?

I mean if you HAFTA be a geek y'might-as-well be a total geek!

Having said that, geeks take note: Hitting is an integral part of the game of hockey. :mex:
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby dbr » Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:21 am

Strangelove wrote:And the attempted geekification of hockey continues. :evil:


Yeah those dweebs at West Point can't just leave well enough alone. :lol:

So ummm don't ever hit and your team will outscore (read defeat) the opposition?? :roll:


I am pretty sure this army geek is trying to use hit differential as a possession statistic - I'm sure we agree that having possession of the puck is a good thing for a hockey team - given that you can't legally deliver a hit when your team has the puck. So it's more about players not having the opportunity to hit than it is about players passing up on the opportunity.

That yankee nerd perhaps should've attempted to break down good hits vs bad hits (hitter giving up position), offensive zone vs defensive zone vs neutral zone, bumps vs solid hits vs bonecrushing hits... and how about factoring in which buildings the hits were thrown in (in some buildings they tend to count little bumps as hits, in others they are more generous in recording hits). Should a proper geek take into account how many hits led directly to a scoring chance/goal?

I mean if you HAFTA be a geek y'might-as-well be a total geek!


Well sure. It would be extremely useful to know what was a quality hit and what was not, but even if you could objectively define a quality and non-quality hit then you'd still have the same problem we have now.. as you mentioned, a hit in one building (or even in one jersey in a given building) is not a hit in another.

I don't particularly like the hit statistic so to me this measurement is flawed.. even if there is evidently a relatively high correlation to offensive production.

But yeah I am sure if someone ever goes to the trouble of collecting detailed data about the events leading up to goals and weights them accordingly then we'd be able to draw all sorts of interesting conclusions.

Having said that, geeks take note: Hitting is an integral part of the game of hockey. :mex:


Totally agreed. When the opportunity arises, you want a guy willing to throw a hit (or block a shot, or take a hit) ten times out of ten over a guy who isn't - all else being the same.

And of course, there is something to be said about the exceptional plays that defy statistical measurement - the thundering bodycheck that changes the course of a game, etc. - there will always be room on my team for players that can and will make that play, but that is probably never going to show up in some statistical analysis of huge volumes of data.
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby ESQ » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:31 am

This was an interesting article about Dave Tippett that goes into his proprietary advanced stats system.
To pull off his nightly miracles, Tippett starts with numbers. Hockey has been the slowest of the four major sports to embrace analytics; the game is largely too fluid to graph. But a few years ago, frustrated with conventional stats, the coach invented his own player ratings designed to quantify behind-the-scenes, role-player stuff -- Tippett stuff. Seated at his kitchen table, he opens an Excel document to reveal a category titled CFH, short for Chances For Helped, a metric that tracks assists on attempted shots. It's a guy-behind-the-guy-behind-the-guy stat. He plugs seven other custom metrics into a formula that spits out efficiency numbers, ranging from minus-2 (bad) to 10 (perfect). He shares the results with his players after each game. "The players wanted structure after Gretzky," says associate coach Jim Playfair. "This team ended up being a perfect fit for Tip's coaching style."

I'd love to know his other "custom metrics" to give him a scale of -2 to 10. Compare that to something like coaches rating a player's game out of 5 using only their subjective opinion, and its no surprise Tippett has been so successful.
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Re: Advanced stats/ Moneypuck

Postby dbr » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:24 am

ESQ wrote:Compare that to something like coaches rating a player's game out of 5 using only their subjective opinion, and its no surprise Tippett has been so successful.


This "rating players out of five" thing, I've seen people use it in a vaguely pejorative sense a few times.. and rightly so given the subjectivity inherent in it. The only place I've seen it was in the first 24/7 series, with Dan Bylsma and Ray Shero using it to grade each player's performance the previous game.

Are there other coaches on record using it?

If not, it's hard to argue with the success Bylsma has had particularly considering all the injuries in Pittsburgh over the last two seasons.. perhaps they've improved their methods or perhaps they were already using more reliable methods and simply chose not to use them on camera..
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