Do we trade Schneider after the season?

[donlever]

Just to add to Eddys post (i.e. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin')..

..Hedbergs a hell of a shoot out goalie.

Handles the puck real well if they eliminate the trapezoid as well.

[Meds]

I think that moving Hodgson might have been a way that GMMG was looking at when it came to keeping Schneider. I always felt it was going to be one or the other but never both. Luongo has alot to prove to himself, the fans, Vigneault, and Gillis when it comes to the playoffs. If I'm Gillis during the finals last year I'm saying to myself, "I'm paying this guy almost $10M this year and he's giving up how many goals in the most important games of the year?"

The unfortunate thing for Luongo is that everywhere he has choked, Schneider has come in and done nothing but shine. In Boston, Luongo fell apart 3 times in 2 weeks. Schneider comes in this year and puts on a clinic. Minnesota has classically been a rough building for Louie, Schneider has been solid there. Last game, Luongo goes 3 for 6 in the opening 5 minutes, Schneider then shuts the door until they finally bank one in off of Rome's skate. Luongo craps out to start the season, Schneider puts together some amazing games and suddenly there is talk of a goalie controversy in Vancouver. Until last season Luongo had never been in a situation where he was anything but the goto guy in the crease. He had always been backed up by guys who were never going to threaten his role as the starting goaltender. When Schneider showed up as a regular on the team, Luongo had already had 2 playoff meltdowns against Chicago, and a really bad showing against Anaheim in his playoff debut.

Here's a little breakdown on these two.....

2011-12
Schneider has put up 4 games in which his SV% has been less than .900. Luongo has posted 18 such games. Of those games Shneider has had 3 of them be below .880, Luongo has seen 9 games below that mark.


2010-11
Schneider played in 7 games where he posted a SV% of less than .900, Luongo posted 15 games below .900. Of those Schneider had 4 below .880 while Luongo had 7.

In the regular season, Luongo has shown decline in these categories while Schneider has improved.

Going into this year's playoffs, Luongo will have started 15 games in which he let in 4 or more goals, he has played in 59 playoff games. So going by the stats, once the playoffs start, Luongo is going to get lit up for 4 or more goals in 25% of the games he plays.

While relatively untested in the playoffs, Schneider has given up no more than 3 goals in a game, he did get the hook in that game, and he has never started a game other than that one, but when coming in in relief he has always stood tall. But that is not something to go by as he has only seen ice time in 5 playoff games.

Gillis has to be looking at these guys and seeing the SV% stats, factoring in the epic fails by Luongo in the playoffs, many of which seem to come in elimination games (chance for Canucks to move on, or in a do or die for both), and then looking at winning percentage. Excluding OT and S/O, Luongo, since coming to Vancouver, has won 58.36% of his games. Schneider has won 68.09% of his games. And we all know the bottom line for a GM and coach is wins. So if I'm GMMG, I have to be planning ahead (obviously and thinking longterm for the Canucks. I'm regretting, at times, the albatross of a salary that I signed Luongo to, and I'm fully regretting the NTC I gave him. I'm also remembering that the NTC has an expiration date on it, that the big money will be out of the picture at the end of next year, and that this guy has a family who wants to be back east closer to the folks. I'm taking a long look into the SE corner of the continent and seeing a talent laden team in Tampa who have many of the pieces needed, but are seriously lacking in the crease. They have no prospects in the cupboard to fill that void, and there aren't very many available guys that will fit the bill. So come season's end, Cup or no Cup, I have to sit down with Corey and have a chat, ask him if he wants to commit to Vancouver long-term if Vancouver is willing to commit to him. Find out if he's open to the idea of playing behind Luongo for one more season while getting an increased number of starts, to the tune of around 35 games, plus the handful that he is going to come in in relief. Let him know that he's the guy the Canuck's are looking to go with down the road, offer him a moderate pay-raise on a deal that works for both parties, allows the team to retain some current assets while adding others as needed, and then let him know that his big payday is just around the corner.

[rockalt]

When Schneider showed up as a regular on the team, Luongo had already had 2 playoff meltdowns against Chicago, and a really bad showing against Anaheim in his playoff debut.

Excellent post overall Meds. I just have a question regarding your comment above. Are you honestly referring to Luongo's play in the '07 playoffs against Anaheim? If so, I don't have a clue how you could describe his performance as a "bad showing." Luongo posted a .941 save percentage during those playoffs and was the sole reason the Canucks even made it out of the first round. He also happened to be lights out against the Ducks and played arguably his best game as a Canuck in a losing effort in game 5.

What really irks me about this particular issue is that everyone somehow uses this game as an example of Luongo "melting down" because he got distracted by what looked like an obvious penalty on the hit to Hansen. My response to this is that he had already compiled well over 50 saves, many of the sensational variety and the team lost in double OT (if I remember correctly). As is often the case in lengthy playoff games, the winning goal doesn't tend to be the prettiest. Does anyone remember Uwe Krupp's Stanley Cup winning goal against John Vanbiesbrouck in the 1996 final? It was as ugly as they come but I don't remember anyone claiming that Vanbiesbrouck let the team down (quite the opposite in fact).

Now I am not sure if this is the series to which you were referring so I apologize if this isn't the case. It's just something I had to get off my chest because I have listened to enough radio pundits and fans alike refer to this game and series far too often as an example of Lou's playoff meltdown.

Otherwise I am pretty much in agreement with your post. I am concerned by the increased number of Luongo letdowns which never existed prior to the game 6 meltdown of the 2009 playoffs. I still have that feeling of dread that it's all going to fall apart even when he's seemingly on top of his game. I would venture to say that most Canucks fans do as well by this point!

[donlever]

What really irks me about this particular issue is that everyone somehow uses this game as an example of Luongo "melting down" because he got distracted by what looked like an obvious penalty on the hit to Hansen.

Yeah, this was not a meltdown (moreso that game stands testament to what we expect of this player in big games such as that one) but does speak to an issue Luongo continues (apparently) to struggle with.

His mind can get to wandering when "shit happens" and this appears detrimental to his focus thus resulting in some of the bizarre things we see him do.

Case in point Saturday when it seems the shot from Raymond in the warm up threw a hitch into his git along.

[Potatoe1]

What really irks me about this particular issue is that everyone somehow uses this game as an example of Luongo "melting down" because he got distracted by what looked like an obvious penalty on the hit to Hansen. My response to this is that he had already compiled well over 50 saves, many of the sensational variety and the team lost in double OT

Yeah I have to agree on that, IMO it's just "piling on" and actually detracts from the strength of the real argument which is his problems in more recent years.

I also get annoyed when people include his Olympic performance.


As far as Schneider goes, the only way I can see him not get traded is if he ends up replacing Luongo in the playoffs and wins us a cup.

Unless that happens he will almost certainly be moved as I don't see him signing for more then a year here.

[wafflecombine]

While it is an extremely low probability outcome... I still hold out small hope that Ginger will sign a contract extension (with a good raise) and then the Ginger-Lou team takes us to multiple cups.

Just sayin

[spooner]

Case in point Saturday when it seems the shot from Raymond in the warm up threw a hitch into his git along.

I had the same thought watching the game on Saturday. While I often find myself defending Luongo because I think many fair weather Canuck fans tend to ignore just how good he is when he's on top of his game (for instance, his performance in Game 7 against Chicago last year was outstanding), I don't think there is any denying that when someting goes wrong for him, things tend to go south in a hurry. Saturday's game was a perfect example.

On the plus side, he has shown a capacity to improve on his flaws over the past couple years. He changed his over-aggressive approach with the help of Melanson last year and in my opinion his interviews have come a long way this year as well. His old tendency to push the blame elsewhere seems to have disappeared. To me, he just comes across as less douchebaggy lately. My point in all this is that hopefully he can improve on his ability to stay on an even keel when something bad happens.

As far as Schneider goes, the only way I can see him not get traded is if he ends up replacing Luongo in the playoffs and wins us a cup.

I think there is one more potential scenario. If Luongo performs very poorly in a series ending game (similar to the Chicago series or 2 and 3 years ago) then I think Gillis would look hard at moving him. I realize MG said he'd never ask a player to waive a NTC but I don't think he'd have to ask. Considering Canucks fans' current relationship with Luongo (whether it is completely deserved or not) I don't think it's a stretch to envision Roberto wanting out. His trade value would likely be at an all-time low so the return might not be pretty. All of that being said, I do think that there is a pretty low risk of Luongo laying an 8 in an ellimination game while Cory is on the bench. Even if Luongo did go on tilt, it's probably unlikely he'd last more than 3 or 4 goals.

[ESQ]

While I often find myself defending Luongo because I think many fair weather Canuck fans tend to ignore just how good he is when he's on top of his game (for instance, his performance in Game 7 against Chicago last year was outstanding), I don't think there is any denying that when someting goes wrong for him, things tend to go south in a hurry. Saturday's game was a perfect example.

I'm exactly the same way. I am one of Luongo's biggest supporters, but Saturday it was clear something was wrong and I'd have pulled him after the 2nd goal. Had that happened, the Canucks might have won.

Considering Canucks fans' current relationship with Luongo (whether it is completely deserved or not) I don't think it's a stretch to envision Roberto wanting out.

I agree with you here, and it terrifies me. IMO Roberto is a better goalie than Cory right now and for the immediate future. I've laid out many times on this board why he is better, and is probably the best goalie in the NHL since the lockout, so I won't go into it again. If the chips fall the right way, Cory will have Luongo upside, but he's not there yet.

But everybody must agree at least that Roberto+Cory > Cory+backup.

If Roberto does leave, this team is far worse off. I would hate to be in the position of Chicago, or Philly, or Washington, or Tampa Bay, where goaltending is holding you back. You can have the reigning Conn Smythe and Norris winners, but without goaltending you sneak into the 8th seed like Chicago.

[Meds]

When Schneider showed up as a regular on the team, Luongo had already had 2 playoff meltdowns against Chicago, and a really bad showing against Anaheim in his playoff debut.

Excellent post overall Meds. I just have a question regarding your comment above. Are you honestly referring to Luongo's play in the '07 playoffs against Anaheim? If so, I don't have a clue how you could describe his performance as a "bad showing." Luongo posted a .941 save percentage during those playoffs and was the sole reason the Canucks even made it out of the first round. He also happened to be lights out against the Ducks and played arguably his best game as a Canuck in a losing effort in game 5.

Well, maybe, just maybe, I could have chosen my words more wisely. You will note I didn't refer to 2007 as a meltdown.

He had that one bad play that cost the series, but really it didn't cost the series as the Canucks were simply not the better team. He shouldn't have let that play distract him, but again, it is a natural inclination for a goalie to look over his shoulder at the ref to see if he should be headed to the bench. He let the lack of a call bother him to the point of a disbelieving pause, but I digress. I do point to that play as being the first nail in his playoff/big game coffin.

People were all over him for that, and even worse, I think he really blamed himself for that one. His opening series against Dallas was the stuff of legend, and his play to that point had been so good that had the Canucks pulled that game off, he seemed poised to pull a Giguere circa 2002 and it could have been a season that went in the books as the year Luongo cemented his name among the greats. From that point on he just didn't appear as composed and calm in the "big" games. I think that was the moment that he realized just how bright the NHL spotlight is in Canadian cities. The following year the team missed the playoffs (I think he was hurt that year too) and that just compounded matters for him. The pressure has simply mounted from there.....

As much as Schneider may be one of the best things to happen to the Canucks in recent history, he has perhaps been the worst thing to happen to Luongo. Louie has never been "pushed" by a backup before, so that's new, and while it is often a good thing, the timing was terrible. You comeback from injury, sweep St. Louis, meltdown against Chicago, and take the heat. The next year, you battle it out against a young newcomer in LA (Quick), and people are drawing comparissons and wondering if you still have it, then you meltdown again against Chicago. Back-to-back playoff disasters, and then enter Schneider. Suddenly you go from doubting yourself to doubting the team, fans, and management's confidence in you. Not going to be easy. It must be doubly hard when the new guy is in his ealry 20's, making way less money, and performing at the same or, sometimes, a higher level. Granted, the new guy isn't having to do it night in and night out, but as you watch, the team plays better in front of this guy. They get him 3 and 4 goals to work with every game it seems, while they seem a bit on edge when your in net. The lip service is there, but you still wonder, and when it comes to the fans you don't have to wonder, you hear it everywhere.

I just think that all parties would benefit from a Stanley Cup.

[Potatoe1]

People were all over him for that, and even worse, I think he really blamed himself for that one. His opening series against Dallas was the stuff of legend, and his play to that point had been so good

I don't think people were all over him at all.

Most of us realized that he was the only reason the series was even remotely competitive and the main reason we beat Dallas.

Lu was still very much "the golden child" at that point, it's only been in recent years where people love to bring that game up to try and use it as an over all argument about his playoff failings.

That game and that series should be on the success side of the ledger not the failure side.

[Meds]

I'm exactly the same way. I am one of Luongo's biggest supporters, but Saturday it was clear something was wrong and I'd have pulled him after the 2nd goal. Had that happened, the Canucks might have won.

I can't be claim the same as you when it comes to being one of his biggest supporters, but I do support him, even defend him. However, I also am ready to run him out of town in the midst of one of my frenzied-fan-outbursts, once I settle down I still have one problem with him.....salary vs. consistency.

The Buffalo game was not one of those games that I hang on Luongo. Honestly I don't see why anyone would think to pull Louie in that game based on the logic that "something was wrong with him". If you look at the goals, none of them are goals that he 100% should have had.

First goal.....Leino's shot was a fanned on bomb , Lou stayed up as it was likely going to come up off the ice, instead Leino fanned on it a bit, but still sent a rocket along the ice.....this after a terrible turnover at the blueline and a total breakdown of defensive coverage down low. Leino should never have gotten that look at the net, and I'd bet that puck was travelling no less than 85mph off the one-timer FROM IN CLOSE! And this was the only one of the three goals that Luongo could have gotten, not even going to say he should have, just could have.

Second goal.....Lou makes a save, Sabers going to the net, Canuck defender and a Saber slide through the crease, contact Luongo and take his goalstick into the corner. Luongo gets up, makes a save on a shot from the slot, the puck bounces around and the Sabers keep it in, cross point pass, knuckle puck to the net that goes squirrelly, Luongo makes a tough save without his stick, reaching with his blocker to bat the puck away from the front of the net, doesn't get much on it as he was scrambling to get set without his stick, defenseive coverage in front of the net is non-existent, Sabers score. Give Luongo a goalstick on that initial bouncer and he sweeps the puck to the corner or reaches back and pulls it into his body for the whistle.

Third goal.....Canucks defense with at TERRIBLE turnover behind Luongo, Rome with a BONEHEADED play on the boards, the puck straight out to Boyes in the slot and a bullet to that barely catches the inside of the top corner, puck was moving so fast nobody knew it was a goal until they reviewed it a couple of minutes later. Pretty sure that beats 29 of 30 starters in this league.

All of those goals were the result of horrible defense and terrible communication between the players in front of Luongo. The only reason you pull Louie in that game is mercy. Vigneault should have called a timeout after the Sabers scored twice in the first 3 minutes because the team was totally out of synch and playing confused hockey. Pulling Louie reset the team a bit, but no more, IMO, than an early timeout would have.

In the post-game interviews Luongo took the heat and threw himself under the bus for the loss. That was a mature, team-guy way of doing things. I hope he didn't actually mean it because he doesn't need to carry that loss. The only goal he actually was shrugging off as unstoppable was Boyes' wrist shot, he called it a "perfect shot".

[Meds]

People were all over him for that, and even worse, I think he really blamed himself for that one. His opening series against Dallas was the stuff of legend, and his play to that point had been so good

I don't think people were all over him at all.

Most of us realized that he was the only reason the series was even remotely competitive and the main reason we beat Dallas.

Lu was still very much "the golden child" at that point, it's only been in recent years where people love to bring that game up to try and use it as an over all argument about his playoff failings.

That game and that series should be on the success side of the ledger not the failure side.

While I agree with you on which side of the ledger that series should be on, I'm pretty sure you aren't remembering things clearly. The media hung him out to dry on that play. They qualified it as a learning experience in his first playoff appearance, they gave him full credit for the first round victory over Dallas, and gave him full marks for the Canucks even being in the series with Anaheim, but they still pointed to that play and pinned it on him. Luongo's psyche being what it is, you know that even when they give him credit for 3 things, the one negative comment is what stands out in his mind because he wasn't "perfect". Typical type-A personality.

You may not have blamed him for that, because any fans worth their hockey salt knew better, but as we all know Canuckdom is fraught with fickle finger pointers, and Luongo certainly has never gotten the full support that he should have from this town's media and fans.

[Meds]

If Roberto does leave, this team is far worse off. I would hate to be in the position of Chicago, or Philly, or Washington, or Tampa Bay, where goaltending is holding you back. You can have the reigning Conn Smythe and Norris winners, but without goaltending you sneak into the 8th seed like Chicago.

More than just goaltending is holding Washington and Chicago back.....

Washington still has no defense.

Chicago is a 6 man team.

[Diehard1]

In an answer to the question posed in this thread - if Gillis doesn't trade one of Schneider or Luongo this off-season, it's bad asset management. There is no reason to have two goalies making upwards of $8 million a year on the cap, especially when you've got two who are right up there with the best in the business.

Schneider will be traded this off-season and he should be, you aren't going to get rid of Lu's contract and he's much more experienced than Schneider. Cory is also more valuable to other teams. If Gillis can get Connolly (young sniper with all sorts of talent) and a 1st rounder (to help replenish the system when this edition of the Canucks gets broken up) or something like that he has to do it. I'm not sure that's what he gets, I'm just saying you have to trade him.

Gillis should be able to plug a hole or two with the assets from a Schneider trade, there's no reason to keep them both regardless of how much people like them. I cheer for the team, not for the players (even though I have my favourites like everyone else), just like Hodgson if/when Schneids is traded I'll cheer just as much for the new players that come back in return.

[rockalt]

People were all over him for that, and even worse, I think he really blamed himself for that one. His opening series against Dallas was the stuff of legend, and his play to that point had been so good

I don't think people were all over him at all.

Most of us realized that he was the only reason the series was even remotely competitive and the main reason we beat Dallas.

Lu was still very much "the golden child" at that point, it's only been in recent years where people love to bring that game up to try and use it as an over all argument about his playoff failings.

That game and that series should be on the success side of the ledger not the failure side.

This. Couldn't have said it better myself! Considering I left Vancouver during the honeymoon, it's safe to say I have fond memories of just how brilliant Luongo was in the early years here. It was only after game 6 against Chicago that everything began to unravel.

He had that one bad play that cost the series, but really it didn't cost the series as the Canucks were simply not the better team. He shouldn't have let that play distract him, but again, it is a natural inclination for a goalie to look over his shoulder at the ref to see if he should be headed to the bench. He let the lack of a call bother him to the point of a disbelieving pause, but I digress. I do point to that play as being the first nail in his playoff/big game coffin.

You're right, as Potatoe mentioned, most people accepted that the Canucks were not in the same class as the Ducks and were pinning all their hopes on an advantage in net.

I was curious after my post so I looked up a recap of that Anaheim series. Luongo was pulled after 4 goals in game 1 which the Canucks lost 5-1. He bounced back in game 2 making 43 saves in a 2-1 OT win. He was decidedly average (at least statistically) in game 3 allowing 3 goals on 24 shots. Game 4 was probably the closest thing to a "meltdown" with the Canucks blowing a 2-0 lead heading into the third period. The Ducks won 3-2 in overtime with Luongo making 28 saves. Finally in game 5, Luongo stopped 56 of 58 shots.

These stats are all courtesy of recaps available on NHL Centre Ice (finally the exorbitant price pays off!) Reading over the recaps, I couldn't help but wonder "What the hell happened to this guy?" It feels so long ago since I had unbridled confidence in Luo's ability to single handedly win series. I found this illuminating Randy Carlyle quote following game 1 with respect to the media hype leading up to the series:

"Goaltenders are human, and there's an old saying that you can't stop what you can't see," Ducks coach Randy Carlyle said Thursday."

And Giguere:

"Not with a goalie like Roberto. We know he's going to bounce back," Giguere said. "They were quality goals. In my mind, he's the best goalie in the league right now."

But I am digressing. The point I wanted to make is with respect to your "first nail in the coffin" opinion. I disagree. In fact I don't think the Anaheim series had much of an impact on him at all. He (as well as the team) struggled in the stretch drive of the 2007/2008 season but most attributed it to the distraction of the birth of his first child. Fast forward to 2008-2009 when Luongo bounces back in a big way. He posts 33 wins and 9 shutouts with a .920 save percentage in 54 games. Without the injury mid-season, this would arguably be his most impressive season for the Canucks and he likely would have received another Vezina nod.

Now the 2009 playoffs roll around and Canucks sweep the Blues with Luo posting something silly like a .935 save percentage. Game 1 against the Blackhawks is a bit of a hiccup with the team surrendering a 3-0 lead but ultimately winning. Thing is, if you go back to that series, Luongo is actually quite dominant when the series is on the line. For as much as people lament the Willie Mitchell gaffe which cost the Canucks a 3-1 series lead, Luongo was the reason they were still in it. If you go back and watch the highlights, he really was quite impressive.

No, I would argue the first nail was really game 6. I couldn't believe what I was seeing when the Blackhawks poured in goal after goal. It was the first, albeit massive, chink in the armour. What surprised me looking back at the series was that Luongo was average to poor in the first two games. The team got blown out 6-3 in game 2 but Luongo bounced back with 23 saves in a 2-1 win in game 3. In game 4 the Canucks were being badly outplayed as they clung to a 1-0 lead (final shots 28 to 15 for the Hawks!). Luongo was minutes from a shutout... we all know what happens next. Luongo makes 26 saves on 29 shots in a losing effort in game 5 which the Blackhawks win 4-2 (last goal was an empty net).

Then there's game 6 which is on another level. I would have mentioned that game 2 was in fact the first chink in the armour if not for the fact that Luongo bounced back with two excellent games in Chicago. He didn't seem too rattled.

Unfortunately for Canucks fans, Luongo just doesn't seem to be the same goaltender ever since that epic meltdown. Yes he has been positively dominant at times but there is always that uneasy feeling that he might just implode.

Moving forward, I think we can all agree it is going to be a very telling playoffs and summer for this organization.

I just think that all parties would benefit from a Stanley Cup.

Indeed!