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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Cornuck » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:45 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:41 pm
The rally was to oppose the taking down of a statue.

All kinds of people were opposed to that, some "fine" and some "very bad"...
I guess we'll be in disagreement then. I don't consider people protesting the removal of a statue which has offended a lot of people over the decades 'fine'.
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Strangelove » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:50 pm

Cornuck wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:45 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:41 pm
The rally was to oppose the taking down of a statue.

All kinds of people were opposed to that, some "fine" and some "very bad"...
I guess we'll be in disagreement then. I don't consider people protesting the removal of a statue which has offended a lot of people over the decades 'fine'.
People are offended too easily these days.
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Cornuck » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:12 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:50 pm
Cornuck wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:45 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:41 pm
The rally was to oppose the taking down of a statue.

All kinds of people were opposed to that, some "fine" and some "very bad"...
I guess we'll be in disagreement then. I don't consider people protesting the removal of a statue which has offended a lot of people over the decades 'fine'.
People are offended too easily these days.
Yes.... Lee was such a 'hero'... :roll: In a city with a 20% African-American population, you would rather see a big statue of a Lee and have a public park named after him?
Lee insisted later, but if it (the Civil War) was about slavery, it was only out of Christian devotion that white southerners fought to keep blacks enslaved. LINK
But I guess to defend your orange hero, you have to defend racist slaveholders as well, right, врач?
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Strangelove » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:14 pm

Bottom line: Donald Trump is not a racist.
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Cornuck » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:18 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:14 pm
Bottom line: Donald Trump is not a racist.
You and I will never know for sure, but he does a damn fine impression of one. ;)
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Per » Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:50 am

Per wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:27 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:24 pm
Whatever, the theme of my posts has clearly been about immigration and the Muslim effect on Sweden.

(I have said nothing about race whatsoever)
I'll get back to this later. Have to go to work, and I'll be quite busy today, so this will have to wait.
OK, finally an attempt to respond to this. A bit of a rambling rant perhaps, but as I said, really busy at work right now, so I haven't had time to put in a lot of effort.
Strangelove wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:28 pm
No no no, I meant what do you think about you and yours being replaced by those folks over time.

(they increase in numbers over generations + you and yours decrease = extinction of the libs)

I was wondering if you see the folly of your "progressive" (HA!) ways yet.

Personally I look forward to the inevitable establishment of Sharia Law in Sweden.

"Swedish Twins" of the future:
OK, so if we are serious about not taking race into the equation, the entire problem goes away! :)

Most studies show that second generation immigrants tend to have values closer to those of the country they grow up in than the country their parents grew up in. I mean, this is of course a generalization, it does not apply to every individual, and it is not always a complete match. But still.

Another figure of interest is that when it comes to "second generation immigrants" in Sweden, only 23% have parents that come from the same country. 68% have one foreign born and one Swedish born parent and 9% have two foreign born parents that come from different countries.

Both these facts speak for assimilation.

Over time, the children and grandchildren of immigrants typically adopt the customs and the culture of the new country (in this case Sweden).

Just look around in Canada.
21.9% of the Canadian population is foreign born.
https://www.cicnews.com/2017/10/immigra ... gs.9aC=pGQ

And it has been more or less the same throughout the history of Canada.
And still I'd say there is a pretty strong and easily identified Canadian culture.

A recent figure I saw said that 15.9% of the Swedish population is foreign born. That is a very high figure for Europe, but not quite as high as Canada's. On top of that there are some 12% or so that have at least one foreign born parent.

But before someone start wailing about the coming of Eurabia, sit back and relax.
At least half the Swedish immigrants are European, with two of the larger groups coming from Finland and former Yugoslavia.
A lot of those, you can't even tell from looking at them that they are not "native" Swedes.
Well, the Yugos are mixed lot, of course; some are blond and blue eyed, some look like Zlatan Ibrahimovic. But whatever.

Next, the statistics on Muslims in Sweden are severely inflated.
We do not register race or religion in our statistics, so there aren't actually any official numbers.
The figures you hear are typically estimated on the basis of origin.
The worst sources will consider ALL immigrants from Muslim majority countries Muslim, which of course is bullshit, but this is what you often get in the Eurabia scenarios.
More serious sources will attempt to correct the estimate by going on the percentage of Muslims in the country of origin, ie if 100 immigrants arrive from a country that is 75% Muslim, they will guess that 75 of th eimmigrants are Muslims. But even this is wrong.

Think about it.

Refugees tend to flee their countries because they are being persecuted. Minorities are far more often persecuted than the majority.
Therefor a disproportionate number of refugees from Muslim countries are actually not Muslims.
Sure, some of them are. But a large part of them belong to minority groups, eg Christians, Bahaï, Zoroastrians, atheists, Mandaeans, etc.

Sweden now has one of the largest group of Mandaeans outside of the Middle East. Prior to the Iraq war, they were mainly found in Iraq, but from what I hear almost all of them have left, albeit most of them have ended up in Iran, Syria and Jordan. Not sure the ones who fled to Syria are any better off than they were in Iraq.... :roll:
Never heard of them? Oh yes, you have. Except you didn't know what they were called. They are the followers of John the Baptist. Very popular religious sect in Roman Judea back when JC roamed the land. He was probably part of that group before he formed his own church. That's why the bible spends so much time explaining why John actually was the follower of Christ, not his leader, even though it was he who baptised Christ and not the other way around... :lol: In the first century AD, they fled persecution in Judea (I mean, John himself was decapitated) and migrated to Mesopotamia, ie Iraq. Today there are only some 100,000 of them (albeit, frankly, that's probably more than when Johnny B was alive). And a fair bunch of them now live in Sweden.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandaeism

Let me present the example of Södertälje, birth place of Björn Borg and Anders Eldebrink (of Canuck fame) and home to the Scania Trucks HQ.
In Södertälje more than half the population are immigrants. Mainly from Iraq and Syria.
In fact, the city of Södertälje alone, has taken in more Syrian refugees than the USA.
"Ha! I told you so!" you say triumphantly. "The Muslims are taking over."

But no. Södertälje is in fact probably one of the most islamophobic places you can find.
Most of the immigrants in Södertälje are Assyrians. Once they ruled the known world, now they have a scoccer team in Sweden's second tier league.
Assyrians today are a group of Arab speaking Christians that can be found mainly in Iraq and Syria. Neither place is at present considered a very safe place for Christians, so they came here. Instead, Muslims in Södertälje do not feel safe. They are bullied at school, ostracized and not made feel welcome at all, by their Arab speaking neighbours.

At some point a bunch of Assyrians came to Södertälje, found jobs at the Scania factory and settled down. And told their friends and relatives that this was a nice place. Since then, whenever there is unrest in the Middle East, more Assyrians arrive.
Now, having this many people of the same group has a twofold effect on integration. In one way it makes integration into society easier, because being surrounded by so many people from "the old country" makes it easier to find a job, get advice, find someplace to live, etc. At the same time it makes true assimilation harder, because you spend so much time within your ethnic group, you might not adopt the majority culture as fast as you would in a place with fewer fellow expats. Thus Assyrians are usually not as secular as Swedes in general. They like to wear big crucifixes on chains or necklaces to flaunt their religion.
But they'll adapt eventually. :drink:

Most people I know that are Iranian (or half Iranian) are secular. The Iranian women I know have short sleeved clothes and show their hair.
Think about it. The Iranians that came here were the secular upper middle class who lived like Americans/Europeans and who fled for their life when the Shah was toppled. Religion ruined their life. Their main concern now is to push their kids through med school so they can regain the status their family had back home. Or at least become engineers or dentists.

Now, I know that some disgruntled and marginalized Muslim young men, typically high school dropouts and petty thieves, turn to salafism and jihad to try to be someone and gain status. But they are a confused minority within the minority.

Most people from the Middle East adapt. They dance around the midsummer pole like the rest of us, drink too much, put up cheezy xmas ornaments (that stay up till Easter, because they're not used to the tradition and do not know when they're supposed to be gone) and in general adapt to mainstream Sweden. Not all of them, but most of them.

My eldest daughter's boyfriend's sister is married to an engineer with Iranian parents. He's a great guy.
Several of my youngest daughter's best friends are of mixed background. One is half Canadian, another half Iranian, one is Syrian. And they party just like anyone else. One year at high school a bunch had a Secret Santa party, it was organised by a Jewish girl, and at least three of those attending were of Muslim background.

It's not all burning cars in a run down neighbourhood, albeit that definitely does happen to.
But those are the exceptions, not the rules.

If you look at the graph on page 31 in this report, you'll see that between 60-70% of all different groups of immigrants consider themselves integrated into Swedish culture, with another 20-30% describing themselves as fully assimilated. The group feeling marginalized or separated from mainstream society is greater among people from Africa and Asia (roughly 15%), but hopefully their kids will do better.
https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/d ... TEXT01.pdf

Sweden is doing great. GDP/capita is rising. Unemployment is falling. We're top five or top ten in the world in almost any index of well being you can find. This whole idea that we are a failing nation is just fake news. Propaganda, I tell you.
https://nordic.businessinsider.com/here ... lot-2017-6
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Strangelove » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:51 am

.
^Balance that with the fact Muslims are vastly outbreeding other groups (as Dan showed)

… and the fact that, despite your personal experience, folks born into Muslim families seldom leave the faith.

BTW I have a friend of 30 years who “fled for his life when the Shah was toppled”

… he is still a Muslim/raising his son in the faith to this very day.

But why is a facts-and-figures guy such as yourself going by personal experience all of a sudden?

(your page 31 graph doesn't cut it)

Isn’t it true that the percentage of Swedes who are Muslim was 5% seven years ago and 7% today?

And isn’t it true that Sweden’s Ministry of Defence has determined that

… the Muslim Brotherhood has “a very strong foothold and influence in Sweden”?

https://www.msb.se/Upload/Kunskapsbank/ ... 7-1287.pdf

Not sure why you went on so much about the Mandaeans and Assyrian Christians.

Aren’t the Mandaeans a drop in the Swedish immigrant bucket?

(10 times more Muslims in Sweden than Mandaeans?)

Aren’t your “Assyrians in Sweden” a tiny fraction of even that?

Also, isn’t it true that… of late… the number of Muslim immigrants is vastly increasing?

I dunno pal, you’re still reminding me of that Frank Drebin gif. :D
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Per » Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:51 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:51 am
.
^Balance that with the fact Muslims are vastly outbreeding other groups (as Dan showed)
… and the fact that, despite your personal experience, folks born into Muslim families seldom leave the faith.
Well, having pointed out that 68% of second generation immigrants in Sweden have one Swedish parent, and Swedes typically tend to be Christians or atheists, it is nowhere near certain that they will opt for Islam.
BTW I have a friend of 30 years who “fled for his life when the Shah was toppled”
… he is still a Muslim/raising his son in the faith to this very day.
Yeah, sure. And I know a Somali guy who agrees that girls should not be circumcised, but insists that his sons must be. It's natural that people stick to their religion. As long as they don't try to impose it on every one else, I'm quite OK with that.

The Iranian guy around the corner though, who used to work for SAVAK (so probably not as nice as he comes across) seems equally proud over his daughter's medical degree and her Swedish husband. I doubt his grandchildren will be Muslims.

The Syrian family down the street? Hard to tell.Their kids are like 5 and 7. But I do think they will be more Swedish than Syrian when they reach adulthood. And they eat the candy I give them without checking the label for gelatin, so...
Isn’t it true that the percentage of Swedes who are Muslim was 5% seven years ago and 7% today?
As I said, there are no official figures regarding religion in Sweden. Estimates vary between 200,000 and 800,000.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. It obviously must have increased in recent years, given the amount of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan we've taken in. I'd guess roughly half a million.
And isn’t it true that Sweden’s Ministry of Defence has determined that
… the Muslim Brotherhood has “a very strong foothold and influence in Sweden”?
https://www.msb.se/Upload/Kunskapsbank/ ... 7-1287.pdf
Technically, that's not the Defence Ministry, but the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, but sure.
There are salafists as well, who try to recruit people for jihad. It's good to know that our authorities are keeping track of them.
Not sure why you went on so much about the Mandaeans and Assyrian Christians.
To explain why the number of Muslims in Sweden suggested in many forums usually are inflated and simply wrong.
Aren’t the Mandaeans a drop in the Swedish immigrant bucket?
Sure. Not the greatest of groups, but I find the story of them intriguing.
Most people have no idea that John the Baptist's little group is still around.
Aren’t your “Assyrians in Sweden” a tiny fraction of even that?
Uhm, no. Approximately 150,000.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria ... _in_Sweden

Given that the estimates of the number of Muslims in Sweden vary from 200,000 to 800,000, I think the fact that many of the higher figures include Assyrians (and Mandeans, Bahaï, Zoroastrians, atheists, etc) is important to point out. Those numbers are severely inflated. My guess is that the higher figure includes up to 300,000 Middle Easterners that are not Muslims, and the Assyrians make up roughly half of that.
Also, isn’t it true that… of late… the number of Muslim immigrants is vastly increasing?
Obviously, it did. Ever since the unlawful invasion of Iraq by Dubya et al, Iraq and Syria have been a mess, so the number of people fleeing those countries is huge. And since so many countries do not pull their part, a lot have ended up here. But the peak was in 2014/15. Since then it has dropped back to more normal numbers.
I dunno pal, you’re still reminding me of that Frank Drebin gif. :D
Don't know who that is, but whatever... :roll:
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Strangelove » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:57 pm

Per wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:51 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:51 am
Isn’t it true that the percentage of Swedes who are Muslim was 5% seven years ago and 7% today?
As I said, there are no official figures regarding religion in Sweden. Estimates vary between 200,000 and 800,000.
Per wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:51 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:51 am
Aren’t your “Assyrians in Sweden” a tiny fraction of even that?
Uhm, no. Approximately 150,000.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assyria ... _in_Sweden

Given that the estimates of the number of Muslims in Sweden vary from 200,000 to 800,000
The same source that you just used for the Assyrians (Wikipedia) seems to indicate 810,000 Muslims in Sweden in 2017.

810,000 = 8.1% of the total population of Sweden of 10 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Sweden

From 150,000 - 200,000 Muslims.... to 810,000 Muslims in just three years! :wow:

GO MUSLIMS GO!!!

Per wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:51 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:51 am
I dunno pal, you’re still reminding me of that Frank Drebin gif. :D
Don't know who that is, but whatever... :roll:
Image
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Per » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:07 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:57 pm
The same source that you just used for the Assyrians (Wikipedia) seems to indicate 810,000 Muslims in Sweden in 2017.

810,000 = 8.1% of the total population of Sweden of 10 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Sweden
Uhm... no. The figure of 150,000 Assyrians/Syriacs (same people, but they can't agree on what to call themselves) is based on membership or affiliation to their organisations.
The same methodology, membership in a Muslim congregation, will give you the lower estimate of Muslims in Sweden, ie roughly 200,000. Now, it seems reasonable to have a broader definition of Muslims. They are not as tightly knit as the Assyrians, given that they are a much more diverse group, so it is reasonable that there can be a significant number of Muslims that do not belong to a specific congregation but still could be considered Muslims.

The wikipedia page mentions a number of estimates, including the PEW research report linked to earlier in this thread, which gives the figure 810,000. But I have just spent a significant amount of time explaining why that estimate is wrong.

The 200,000 estimate excludes a lot of people who are Muslims, but not members of a congregation.
The 810,000 estimate includes a lot of people who are not Muslims, but arrived from predominantely Muslim countries.

Neither figure is correct. My personal guess is that the truth lies right in the middle, ie roughly 500,000.

It is also worth to point out that on that same wikipedia page, it is suggested that only 40-50% of Swedish Muslims are practicing Muslims, ie the rest are not really religious, but happen to be of Muslim heritage.

Which is another reason why the Eurabia and sharia law scenario will never happen,
These are people who fled religious oppression. They are not going to want it back.
Strangelove wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:57 pm
From 150,000 - 200,000 Muslims.... to 810,000 Muslims in just three years! :wow:
Yeah, you see yourself that that is impossible. We have not had that many immigrants arrive in those years. That would mean nearly half a million Swedes would have had to convert to Islam in that time frame. :roll:

You are taking figures reached through very different methods and comparing them.
For reasons I have already explained, the first estimate is too low and the second one is too high.
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Strangelove » Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:29 pm

Gotta admire the effort you put into defending your cause there Frank

... even if it is liberalism. 8-)

But tell me, why do you think so many Swedes are leaning more to the right these days? :mex:
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Reefer2 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:17 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:29 pm


But tell me, why do you think so many Swedes are leaning more to the right these days? :mex:
Maybe it’s how they hang?

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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Per » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:56 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:29 pm
Gotta admire the effort you put into defending your cause there Frank

... even if it is liberalism. 8-)

But tell me, why do you think so many Swedes are leaning more to the right these days? :mex:
Uhm... not quite true either. The conservative party has shrunk. The left party has grown, as has the centre party.
It's not really a clear electorate win for anyone.

Sure, the Sweden democrats have grown, but they are still just 17.5%, which means they'd probably not get a single seat in a first past the post system like Canada. Or, well, perhaps the odd seat in the province of Scania, which is where their support is the strongest.

If you look at the election results in Sweden, the two traditional blocks have both just above 40%. The red-greens ( not to be confused with a TV show) has like 40.7 and the centre-right alliance had 40.3, I think. Now, if you are thinking just left vs right, you could think that you could just add the Sweden democrats to the alliance and reach 57.8, but that won't fly.

Both the centre party and the liberals have vowed not to participate in a government that is dependent on the Sweden democrats, so if you add the SD, you have to remove those two, which brings us down to some 43%.

The only feasible government I can see is one governing from the middle.
Centre, Liberals, Social Democrats and Greens would have a total of 167 seats.
Lower than the 175 needed for a majority, but more than the combined 154 of the Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats.
The remaining 28 are the Left Party seats, and they will not unite with the right wing.

But, OK, why have the Sweden democrats attracted more voters?

I think it has several explanations. One is obviously immigration.
The one issue that unites them is that they want less immigrants.
The immigrants have become the scape goat for the economic contraction in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008/09.
SD forst managed to cross the 4% thresshold in 2010, and have then continued to grow in the 2014 and 2018 elections.

Another is that many marginalized voters, especially in small towns where industries have shut down, are fed up with the traditional parties and so look for someone else to turn to.

I do think that they are past their prime though. Many thought they'd do better in these elections than they did.
I genuinely believe the tides are turning, and that from now on we will return to typical Swedish core values such as tolerance, hospiltality and solidarity.

Many speculate that Annie Lööf, of the centre party, could become our next prime minister, once the dust settles, and she is the political leader that has been most outspoken against the Sweden democrats. If so, the SD will have virtually no say in Swedish politics over the next four years, and hopefully they will eventually crawl back under whatever rock they came out from under.
Last edited by Per on Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Strangelove » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:27 pm

Okay, more and more Swedes want less immigrants.

But what about all this 'welfare system about to collapse' and 'crime is surging' business?
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Re: CC Random thread

Post by Per » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:14 am

Strangelove wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:27 pm
Okay, more and more Swedes want less immigrants.
There is such a tendency in the present, but it depends a bit on time frame and perspective.
Below is a graph studying the change in attitude between 2002 and 2016 in different age cohorts:

Image
http://www.diva-portal.se/smash/get/div ... TEXT01.pdf

Now, the figures in the graph may be a bit confusing. They are based on a question about how many immigrants from poorer countries we should accept, 1 = allow many; 2 = allow some ; 3 = allow few ; 4 = allow none

The average for the entire group in both 2002 and 2016 seem to be somewhere around 2.0, ie allow some.
But, that's not what's interesting really. Instead there are basically three things I think you can realize from studying this graph.

1) Up till 2008 tolerance for immigarnts was growing in all groups over time. Then I assume the 2008 financial crisis lead to less tolerance in the oldest and youngest cohorts. The others followed suite in 2010, except for the 1950-59 cohort that did not grow less tolerant till after 2012 and the 1940-49 that switched in 2014. After the first dip most continued to grow more tolerant till 2014.

2) As a result of the Syrian refugee crisis, tolerance dropped in all cohorts, except for the youngest one, but for most groups it only meant a return to the level they had in 2004. The exception being those born between 1930-39, 1940-49 and 1960-69, who were actually less tolerant in 2014 than in 2004. But even those groups are only averaging at 2.3, ie closer to "allow some" than "allow few". Whatever those statements mean. :|

3) The younger people are, the more tolerant they are toward immigrants. Which means the long term trend seems to be an increased tolerance for immigration as the older cohorts die off.

Since the extreme number of refugees asking for asylum in 2014/2015 has dropped back to more normal levels, I also expect the trend within each cohort to return to normalcy.
The Swedish Migration Agency estimated that the country received between 160,000-190,000 asylum-seekers in 2015, the highest per capita in the EU. In November 2015, Sweden instituted temporary border controls with Schengen countries in response to massive immigration flows. In 2016, the number of asylum seekers entering Sweden was approximately 30,000, a significant decrease from 2015. Numbers remain similar in 2017, as 25,666 individuals sought asylum in Sweden.
https://www.osac.gov/Pages/ContentRepor ... ?cid=23559

Also bear in mind that Swedes are an outlier within the EU when it comes to attitudes to migration.
Our old lo-eds are more positive than the young hi-eds in 13 out of 20 other EU countries.....
Image
https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/do ... _FINAL.pdf
Sure, these figures are from 2015, so they may have fallen somewhat, but they're still exceptional.
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