Sick Bunny wrote:Strangelove wrote:A few decades ago these folks were screaming "Oh noes we's bees on the verge of another ICE AGE y'all!!!"
And of course the 'scientific consensus' at the time backed that up based upon 'recent data'.
Interesting you should bring that up, because here's a 1981 paper that predicted current trends fairly accurately, and it's fairly mainstream at that: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... rojection/
The point: It is an established fact that in the 70's the media + popular culture were screaming:
"Oh noes we's bees on the verge of another ICE AGE y'all!!!"
... or words to that effect.
Virtually the entire wide-eyed freaky-deaky leftist media was predicting death-by-freezing-for-billions, based upon information released by climatologists that pointed to a substantial drop in global temperature from 1940 up to that particular point in time (70's). Every single climate... paper ... had to acknowledge said temperature drop. And MOST... papers were predicting the cooling trend to continue.
The 'scientific consensus' that global cooling was trending.... combined with outlandish predictions of new-ice-age-doom-and-gloom coming from at least some high-profile climatologists.... fed the media craze.
Global Cooling Craze then... Global Warming Craze now.
The more things change, the more they remain the same....
Sick Bunny wrote:Strangelove wrote:They can't predict next week's weather but these el tardos can predict the global climate 50 years henceforth?
False argument. Short-term weather changes are virtually random, this is why an accurate forecast for next week is so hard to make. This has nothing to do with lon-term trends, which can be predicted accurately, see above. Simple example: I don't need to know if it's gonna rain tomorrow to tell you that the summer is going to be warmer than the winter.
Long-term trends cannot be predicted accurately (too many variables). All one can do is look at recent (geologically speaking) data and assume the present trend is going to continue to some degree. Most climatologists would predict the global climate will continue to increase temperature-wise going forward because that's the safe bet (mind you they would tend to quibble over ‘for how long’ and ‘to what extreme’ that warming might be).
I'm pretty sure that (as with the global cooling craze of the 70's) only a fraction of climatologists would predict we're headed for catastrophe.
Hey perhaps some kid will put out a... paper
... predicting global cooling.... and end up being hailed as a genius 30 years hence.
Who knows, right?
From 1940 to 1970, carbon-dioxide increased dramatically in the atmosphere and the climate actually COOLED.