We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

Meds wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:46 pm It's a mistake, but not an accidental one.

Covid, found posthumously, is counted even if a clearly alternate cause of death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw9Ci2P ... thouttheBS

Dr. Ngozi - Director of Public Health for the State of Illinois.

Or how about this one.....

https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/working-stiff/88141

.....while they are trying to justify it as pneumonia post hospital admission, why the need to put the motorcycle crash on the death certificate?

This was apparently commonplace early on in the US. Doctors recognizing a cause of death but then putting the "/Covid-19" on as well to both cover the "just in case" and also to get the additional funding for having a Covid patient.
In the motorcycle accident case, where he apparently was hospitalized for quite some time, I would assume the accident brought him to the brink of dying, and the covid-related pneumonia pushed him over the edge, so that kind of makes sense, even if your gut reaction just seeing the combo is "say what?!". In fact, most patients that have died from covid-19 were already weakened by some underlying disease or medical problem.

Did you read this part of the medpagetoday.com article you linked to?
Several groups with different agendas have been working to undermine public confidence in the credibility of the COVID-19 death count in the U.S. Their efforts will intensify as the numbers continue to rise.

The death count is a moving target, and news accounts often pit well-meaning doctors and scientists trying to gather the data in rigorous ways against politicians and activists who want to skew the numbers to support foregone conclusions. The death toll from COVID-19 isn't likely to be accurate until years from now when we will have the luxury of looking back at the deaths happening right now in this country and comparing those numbers with those of previous years.

The disparity is called excess mortality. We are starting to get the first reliable data examining excess mortality. In a recent report in JAMA Internal Medicine, the number of U.S. deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122,000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. That's 28% higher than the reported number of deaths over those same months in previous years and much higher than officially reported COVID-19 death rates for that period. We are certainly undercounting, not overcounting, the victims of this slow-motion disaster.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by UWSaint »

Per wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:48 am Did you read this part of the medpagetoday.com article you linked to?
Several groups with different agendas have been working to undermine public confidence in the credibility of the COVID-19 death count in the U.S. Their efforts will intensify as the numbers continue to rise.

The death count is a moving target, and news accounts often pit well-meaning doctors and scientists trying to gather the data in rigorous ways against politicians and activists who want to skew the numbers to support foregone conclusions. The death toll from COVID-19 isn't likely to be accurate until years from now when we will have the luxury of looking back at the deaths happening right now in this country and comparing those numbers with those of previous years.

The disparity is called excess mortality. We are starting to get the first reliable data examining excess mortality. In a recent report in JAMA Internal Medicine, the number of U.S. deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122,000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. That's 28% higher than the reported number of deaths over those same months in previous years and much higher than officially reported COVID-19 death rates for that period. We are certainly undercounting, not overcounting, the victims of this slow-motion disaster.
Just saying. :mex:
Per -- excess mortality is a very important statistic. We can't know how many death would have occured in a counterfactual world, but we can have an idea of the expected range. This article points to one year, and we don't have enough detail to know what the standard distribution is from that one year, but let's assume that this increase is statistically significant.

You know what "excess mortality" it doesn't tell you? Increased deaths caused by COVID vs. increased deaths caused by the response to COVID. If you ban or limit access to "voluntary procedures," as was done in many US states and many nations, then you are going to see some kind of adverse health impact from this. If people with heart attack symptoms are less likely to go to the hospital (which appears to be the case, see this NYTimes article from May https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well ... troke.html), then they are more likely to die from heart attack. CDC survey data show that mental health problems are considerably on the rise (e.g., https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm), and it stands to reason that when the numbers are unpacked, we will see an uptick in deaths from suicide and overdose. These are not due to COVID, but they are due to the response to COVID, both the limitations on access to health care and the unreasonable fear that people have had of the disease. (When I say unreasonable, I don't mean it can't be dangerous, I mean as compared to the risks presented by other health challenges).

More than that, there will be a long tail to these health-health tradeoffs. Many of the voluntary procedures are diagnostic or preventative. If someone doesn't get a stent, they are more likely to get a heartattack. That's why people get stents. If people don't get colonoscopies or mammograms or go to their regular doctor visits where blood screens or other tools identify a need for pharmaceutical treatment or specific diagnositc procedures, their cancers and other conditions will be diagnosed at a later time. And we know that with many diseases, early detection can be the difference between life and death. Point is, there are people who will die because they found out they had something 4 or 6 months after they would have otherwise found out, and that's going to be a death that will occur many months or years from now. We won't know for certain that particular deaths were related to the COVID response, but we will know there will be many. And in countries where there is a lack of supply of diagnostics -- every country by particularly those running single payer health systems where cost savings are achieved by efficiency -- they are going to queue up people, meaning *everyone* will suffer an unusual delay as the people who didn't get tests for months are eligible once again to get them. Put differently, even when COVID goes, so long as the queue isn't caught up, people will suffer adverse health consequences from the COVID response.

The health-health tradeoffs from the COVID response is one of the most underappreciated aspects of what's been going on the past 6 months. The inattention to health-health tradeoffs borders on scandalous. Politicians and public health have been primarily addressing the question "how do we reduce the spread and serious health consequences of COVID" instead of the question (from the public health perspective) "how do we set public policy to maximize health" or (from the politician's perspective) "how to we set public health policy to maximize the common good" (which considers quality of life as well as life itself).

Of course, when these late-diagnosed cancer patients die, people will probably say they were caused by COVID. The author of what you quote makes this elementary mistake. But the public policy response is a choice, not the contagion itself or an act of God or the Chinese Communist Party :D. They are the product of people making difficult choices made all the more difficult by asking the wrong questions.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Meds »

Per wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:48 am
Meds wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:46 pm It's a mistake, but not an accidental one.

Covid, found posthumously, is counted even if a clearly alternate cause of death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw9Ci2P ... thouttheBS

Dr. Ngozi - Director of Public Health for the State of Illinois.

Or how about this one.....

https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/working-stiff/88141

.....while they are trying to justify it as pneumonia post hospital admission, why the need to put the motorcycle crash on the death certificate?

This was apparently commonplace early on in the US. Doctors recognizing a cause of death but then putting the "/Covid-19" on as well to both cover the "just in case" and also to get the additional funding for having a Covid patient.
In the motorcycle accident case, where he apparently was hospitalized for quite some time, I would assume the accident brought him to the brink of dying, and the covid-related pneumonia pushed him over the edge, so that kind of makes sense, even if your gut reaction just seeing the combo is "say what?!". In fact, most patients that have died from covid-19 were already weakened by some underlying disease or medical problem.

Did you read this part of the medpagetoday.com article you linked to?
Several groups with different agendas have been working to undermine public confidence in the credibility of the COVID-19 death count in the U.S. Their efforts will intensify as the numbers continue to rise.

The death count is a moving target, and news accounts often pit well-meaning doctors and scientists trying to gather the data in rigorous ways against politicians and activists who want to skew the numbers to support foregone conclusions. The death toll from COVID-19 isn't likely to be accurate until years from now when we will have the luxury of looking back at the deaths happening right now in this country and comparing those numbers with those of previous years.

The disparity is called excess mortality. We are starting to get the first reliable data examining excess mortality. In a recent report in JAMA Internal Medicine, the number of U.S. deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122,000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. That's 28% higher than the reported number of deaths over those same months in previous years and much higher than officially reported COVID-19 death rates for that period. We are certainly undercounting, not overcounting, the victims of this slow-motion disaster.
Just saying. :mex:
Dr. Ngozi probably doesn't qualify as a member of these "several groups" they mention.....so when the Director of Public Health for Illinois makes a statement like she did where people dying of clearly alternate causes are recorded as Covid deaths, I'd say that there is very good reason to have questionable confidence in the credibility of the "official" Covid-19 death count in the U.S.

Frankly they should have published sub-categories any time they talk about the Covid Kill Count.

Total COVID Deaths
Death due to Covid
Died With Covid
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

Meds wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:14 pm [

Dr. Ngozi probably doesn't qualify as a member of these "several groups" they mention.....so when the Director of Public Health for Illinois makes a statement like she did where people dying of clearly alternate causes are recorded as Covid deaths, I'd say that there is very good reason to have questionable confidence in the credibility of the "official" Covid-19 death count in the U.S.

Frankly they should have published sub-categories any time they talk about the Covid Kill Count.

Total COVID Deaths
Death due to Covid
Died With Covid
Right. But if you again look at that article, the number of excess deaths in the time period they looked at was twice as high as the official covid death count. So what is killing all these people? The most likely answer is covid. Unless there is some other undetected pandemic raging that we haven’t heard of.

Even though I am sure there are lots of sketchy cases where some people have been categorised as dying from covid when they most likely did not, there seem to be far more covid deaths that go unregistered. Or why are the excess deaths compared to a normal year so high? :eh:
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

OK, here is a comparisson of excess deaths and official covid death toll in various countries:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -countries

If you scroll down to the chart you can see that between March 8th and Aug 1st some 152,000 Americans died from covid, according to official data, but in that same period there were some 214,000 excess deaths compared to a normal year.
Why did those other 62,000 die unexpectedly? Surely not all from rioting in Portland.

The most likely explanation is that the actual covid death toll in the USA is roughly 40% higher than the official numbers.

I know that in many countries (no idea how the US has done) deaths in nursing homes have mostly just been registered as death from old age, but in Sweden roughly 40% of our covid deaths were in nursing homes. The people in those places are exactly those who are most vulnerable, so if you do not include them in the stats there will be serious underreporting.

The only country that looks like it may be overreporting is Belgium, but that’s not certain. It could be that several thousand people that in a normal year would have died from the seasonal flu now died from covid instead. Thus those deaths would not be excess deaths, but expected, and help make the covid toll greater than the excess death toll.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Meds »

Per wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:07 pm OK, here is a comparisson of excess deaths and official covid death toll in various countries:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -countries

If you scroll down to the chart you can see that between March 8th and Aug 1st some 152,000 Americans died from covid, according to official data, but in that same period there were some 214,000 excess deaths compared to a normal year.
Why did those other 62,000 die unexpectedly? Surely not all from rioting in Portland.

The most likely explanation is that the actual covid death toll in the USA is roughly 40% higher than the official numbers.
Perhaps those 62,000 extra deaths are people who were already fragile and died because they couldn't get the care and attention that they normally would have received. The number of people who have had diagnosed conditions deteriorate, or new conditions go undiagnosed, during this time is much higher than people think. The number of people who have been afraid to seek care because they are scared of catching Covid at one of the "over-run" hospitals where line-ups of people are waiting to get tested or treated for Covid (such a crock) is also higher than people want to admit. Then there are the people who have been turned away, or sent home without properly being assessed, because the healthcare worker (usually a nurse) shoves something under the Covid blanket of symptoms because they are either lazy, or not fully informed of guidelines and policies. I'd say that in a country of 328 million people where the average Joe is in less than ideal health thanks to diet and lifestyle, that 62,000 cases like this is not a reach.

So to quote UW.....
You know what "excess mortality" it doesn't tell you? Increased deaths caused by COVID vs. increased deaths caused by the response to COVID.
Per wrote: I know that in many countries (no idea how the US has done) deaths in nursing homes have mostly just been registered as death from old age, but in Sweden roughly 40% of our covid deaths were in nursing homes. The people in those places are exactly those who are most vulnerable, so if you do not include them in the stats there will be serious underreporting.

The only country that looks like it may be overreporting is Belgium, but that’s not certain. It could be that several thousand people that in a normal year would have died from the seasonal flu now died from covid instead. Thus those deaths would not be excess deaths, but expected, and help make the covid toll greater than the excess death toll.
You know what else kills people in nursing homes where the people are "exactly those who are most vulnerable"? Everything. A coronavirus not named Covid will happily take one of these people out. So I think it's very important to recognize that Covid spreads quickly and quietly, however, simply blasting the death total without differentiating the cases is not a transparent representation of what is going on.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

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And this Health-health tradeoff point can be made more simply.

Do you think there would be excess deaths compared to last year if there was no covid but you shut down or limited “voluntary” health procedures (diagnostic and preventative), people were discouraged from seeking medical treatment, face to face human interaction was significantly curtailed, unemployment significantly increased, and gdp significantly decreased?

Of course that’s a recipe for shorter life spans.

We all know that when it comes to preventative and diagnostic health care, but even prolonged feelings of loneliness and isolation have a huge toll on expected life spans. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... ns-health/
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Meds »

UWSaint wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:00 pm And this Health-health tradeoff point can be made more simply.

Do you think there would be excess deaths compared to last year if there was no covid but you shut down or limited “voluntary” health procedures (diagnostic and preventative), people were discouraged from seeking medical treatment, face to face human interaction was significantly curtailed, unemployment significantly increased, and gdp significantly decreased?

Of course that’s a recipe for shorter life spans.

We all know that when it comes to preventative and diagnostic health care, but even prolonged feelings of loneliness and isolation have a huge toll on expected life spans. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... ns-health/
Well put.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by The Brown Wizard »

Per you're getting the boots put to you. You better step it up buds

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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Megaterio Llamas »

Van Morrison has had enough!

Van Morrison has accused the UK government of trying to "enslave" the population in a series of songs protesting against the coronavirus lockdown.

https://news.sky.com/story/van-morrison ... sf-twitter
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

UWSaint wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:00 pm And this Health-health tradeoff point can be made more simply.

Do you think there would be excess deaths compared to last year if there was no covid but you shut down or limited “voluntary” health procedures (diagnostic and preventative), people were discouraged from seeking medical treatment, face to face human interaction was significantly curtailed, unemployment significantly increased, and gdp significantly decreased?

Of course that’s a recipe for shorter life spans.

We all know that when it comes to preventative and diagnostic health care, but even prolonged feelings of loneliness and isolation have a huge toll on expected life spans. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... ns-health/
Absolutely, this is exactly why Sweden’s Public Health Agency did not opt for a hard lockdown and mainly issued recommendations instead. But I would not expect such a large peak that soon. These are more long term risks.

But sure, there has already been many reports on an increase in domestic violence, directed both at women and children, all over the world, so some of the psychological effects of lockdown seem to be already manifest.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by The Brown Wizard »

Per, do you know why spousal abuse is on the rise?

Because they JUST DONT LISTEN!
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Meds »

The Brown Wizard wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:50 am Per, do you know why spousal abuse is on the rise?

Because they JUST DONT LISTEN!
Are you saying that because Per can't figure out why he has two black eyes?
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by The Brown Wizard »

Meds wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:30 am
The Brown Wizard wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:50 am Per, do you know why spousal abuse is on the rise?

Because they JUST DONT LISTEN!
Are you saying that because Per can't figure out why he has two black eyes?
After being told twice he should know by now
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by 5thhorseman »

Looks like herd immunity could be in the region of 44 to 52 percent.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... d-immunity

A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity

Blood donations suggest that up to half of Manaus was infected at the epidemic’s peak

The Brazilian city of Manaus was hit hard by COVID-19. At the peak of its epidemic in late spring, the city of over 2 million people had 4.5 times as many deaths as expected for that time of year. Hospitals and cemeteries struggled to keep up, and mass graves were dug to bury the dead. But then, cases and deaths steadily declined, despite a relaxing of social distancing measures.

That trajectory has prompted some researchers to suggest that Manaus has reached herd immunity. In a report posted September 21 at medRxiv.org that has yet to be peer reviewed, researchers suggest that herd immunity developed in the city after 44 to 52 percent of the population was infected at the epidemic’s peak, and that slowed subsequent spread of the virus.
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