The Brexit disaster

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The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:43 pm

Another good article from The Economist:
The government has not published any estimates of the impact of the various types of Brexit since the referendum, but academic studies suggest that even the “softest” option—Norwegian-style membership of the European Economic Area—would cut trade by at least 20% over ten years, whereas the “hardest” exit, reverting to trade on the World Trade Organisation’s terms, would reduce trade by 40% and cut annual income per person by 2.6%. As the economy weakens, these concerns will weigh more heavily. Britain’s economy is growing more slowly than that of any other member of the EU.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... rsc=dg%7Ce
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by rockalt » Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:59 pm

Lol not gonna get my traction on this subject in Western Canada based fan forum! :lol:

Meanwhile in the U.K. we have been inundated with Brexit news which has been nauseating to say the least! I was out of the country for a few months which was a welcome break from the brexit firestorm. As much as I think the whole situation is an absolute shambles, not much has changed with respect to opinions from the leave/remain camps. I think it will take some years post brexit before people stop using the EU as a scapegoat.

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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:28 am

Tick, tock. March 29th is creeping closer, and there is still no agreement between the UK and the EU, which means the Brits may end up leaving without a deal, which should be disastrous.

One of many little things, that I had not given any thought, is that large parts of the TV industry will probably leave. At present the UK is home to some 400 channels that broadcast to other European countries. If there is no deal when the UK leaves the union, all those channels will lose their sending rights, as those are dependent on operating within the EU.

I welcome this! Sweden has laws that regulate how many minutes per hour you can air ads, ban TV ads aimed at children, ads for alcohol, cigarettes and gambling, but the "Swedish" channels TV3, TV6, TV8, Kanal 5, Kanal 9 and Kanal 11 disregard these rules, as they technically are British channels. They send from the UK, and follow British law. The fact that their programming is in Swedish and only broadcast in Scandinavia isirrelevant, so to say. :roll:

Anyway, if there is a hard Brexit, they can no longer send from UK territory, but will have to relocate elsewhere.
It's not just Swedish channels, Dicovery operates almost 100 European channels from the UK and are now looking at relocating to the Netherlands or Poland. It's a multi billion industry that the Brits are kissing goodbye. And that's just a tiny piece of the puzzle.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Cornuck » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:36 am

Still time for a 2nd referendum and end the madness over there.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by SKYO » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:31 pm

Brexit tension leads U.K. to seek deeper ties with Canada.
hmmm
As the United Kingdom works to finalize its split from the European Union, it's about to ramp up efforts to expand its footprint in Canada.​

Brexit has hit another roadblock as the European Union (EU) and U.K. attempt to work out exactly what their future relationship will look like. Both sides are trying to come up with an outline of a post-Brexit relationship in time for a leaders' summit set for Oct. 17-18 in order to stay on track for the March 29, 2019 leave date — exactly two years after Prime Minister Theresa May triggered the departure process.

Because of the hurdles involved — such as coming up with a new trade agreement and new arrangements for Ireland — Susan le Jeune d'Allegeershecque, the U.K.'s high commissioner to Canada, said now is the time to focus on Canada.

Now, London is working to widen the bridge with Canada through appointing new diplomats and pursuing new investments, d'Allegeershecque said.

The EU is pitching a "Canada plus plus plus" trading relationship to the U.K., offering it economic, cultural and security ties similar to what Canada shares with the 27 European Union countries now.

Statistics show that the EU has been quicker than Canada to take advantage of the year-old Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) it signed with Ottawa.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/brexit ... -1.4852597
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Strangelove » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:32 pm

Cornuck wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:36 am
Still time for a 2nd referendum and end the madness over there.
Best 2 out of 3? :lol:

Yeahno, that's not democracy comrade.

Besides, the Leave camp is as strong as ever.

We always knew the EEE (Evil European Empire) would make this as difficult as possible.

It's in the EEE's best interests to publicly punish all who dare to believe in sovereignty...
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:36 pm

Because of the hurdles involved — such as coming up with a new trade agreement ...
It's not just one trade agreement, it's more than a hundred. As a member of the EU, all trade the UK has at present is regulated by agreements the EU has with the rest of the world. When the UK leaves, they need to negotiate trade agreements not just with the EU, but every other country they plan to trade with. It's an enormous effort that will need thousands of people for multiple years, and should have been started long ago. If they leave the EU with no trade deals in place, they will face enormous obstacles both regarding exports and imports.
... and new arrangements for Ireland ...
This is the really tough question. The Brexiteers stated they would take control over the borders and stop migration to the UK. They also claimed nothing would change at the Irish border. So which is it? :eh:

The border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland will become an outer border of the EU once Brexit happens. If there is no deal between the UK and the EU, that will become a very hard border. No goods can pass through without a ton of red paper, and passport and perhaps even visa controls of people crossing it will be necessary. Compare that with today, when there is virtually no border at all.

Now, the British state that they don't want a hard border, but then they will not have control over there own borders. All EU members can travel without restrictions within the EU, so anyone within the EU can get to Ireland, and if there is no border control, just head up to Ulster and then they're in the UK.

Now, the British have stated that they want to keep the free movement of goods,but restrict travel. But they don't seem to understand that these things are interconnected. The EU is built on the concept of the free movement of goods, services, labour and capital within the union. The different parts favour different countries, and you cannot pick and choose. It's a package deal. You're either in or out. All other 27 member states have been firm on this, but it's falling on deaf ears. May seems to still think she can convince the others to let Britain keep free movement of goods and capital but not services and labour.

Facepalm.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:54 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:32 pm
Cornuck wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:36 am
Still time for a 2nd referendum and end the madness over there.
Best 2 out of 3? :lol:

Yeahno, that's not democracy comrade.

Besides, the Leave camp is as strong as ever.
Why would more elections mean less democracy? :eh:

Also, at the time of the referendum there was no exit plan prepared.
Many argue that once the EU and the UK have negotiated a deal, that deal should be confirmed by a new referendum.
The courts have already made it clear that the deal has to be approved by parliament,and many in parliament would like to let the voters have a say as well in the matter.

That being said, I am no fan of referendums, as they tend to simplify complcated matters in a way that makes no sense.
The Brexit referendum is a good example.
No one knew what they voted for, and now they all disagree on the details.

Also, if you compare to Sweden, we wrote the EU membership into our constitution, and to make changes in the constitution you need a two thirds majority vote in parliament twice,with a general election in between. We did that to amend it when we joined, and we would need to do the same in order to leave.

52% of the vote in a referendum, that according to UK law is non-binding, and by that to rip apart the country at the seams?
That's just crazy. And every single riding in Scotland voted to remain. Wouldn't true democracy then be that England and Wales, that voted to leave, leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland, who voted to remain, remain?
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Strangelove » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:59 pm

Per wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:54 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:32 pm
Cornuck wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:36 am
Still time for a 2nd referendum and end the madness over there.
Best 2 out of 3? :lol:

Yeahno, that's not democracy comrade.

Besides, the Leave camp is as strong as ever.
Why would more elections mean less democracy? :eh:
Best 51 out of 100? :roll:

That's not how it works comrade.

The Leave movement was on from Day One.

They built momentum over the years, forced a referendum, and won.

They're not "ripping apart the country at the seams"... they're saving it from the EEE.

Deal with it buttercup.

Short term pain for long term gain...

Per wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:54 pm
Wouldn't true democracy then be that England and Wales, that voted to leave, leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland, who voted to remain, remain?
Now who's trying to ""rip apart the country at the seams"? :sly:
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Uncle dans leg » Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:17 pm

The dusky hordes have already invaded and conquered the UK. Its too late. Save yourself Per before theyre chopping your head off on youtube
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by ukcanuck » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:40 am

Strangelove wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:59 pm
Per wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:54 pm
Strangelove wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:32 pm
Cornuck wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:36 am
Still time for a 2nd referendum and end the madness over there.
Best 2 out of 3? :lol:

Yeahno, that's not democracy comrade.

Besides, the Leave camp is as strong as ever.
Why would more elections mean less democracy? :eh:
Best 51 out of 100? :roll:

That's not how it works comrade.

The Leave movement was on from Day One.

They built momentum over the years, forced a referendum, and won.



They're not "ripping apart the country at the seams"... they're saving it from the EEE.

Deal with it buttercup.

Short term pain for


Per wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:54 pm
Wouldn't true democracy then be that England and Wales, that voted to leave, leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland, who voted to remain, remain?
Now who's trying to ""rip apart the country at the seams"? :sly:
A trump supporter in bed with brexiteers, who would have guessed?

Governing by referendum is governing by popular opinion polls. Wild at best.

How many referendums? As many as the people want indefinitely, it’s called democracy.

What will the leavers do when Scotland has another referendum, scream that they can’t have one because it’s not democratic?

The leave side campaigned on how it would be better out of the EU but so far all that has been shown is that things are sinificantly worse out of the EU.
The leavers said the EU Would dread losing one third of its economy and would beg for a deal.

Reality? EU totally cool with fuck off UK no deal.

So yeah, seems reasonable to check once more with the will of the people before jumping off the proverbial cliff.

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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:53 am

55% of Scots voted to remain in the UK

62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU.

If push comes to shove, they know which union they'd rather belong to.

Furthermore, in the 2014 independence referendum, the British govt threatened that they would block an independent Scotland from ever joining the EU, knowing that this would make them think twice.
Then once the Scottish have grudgingly agreed to remain part of the UK, they turn around and force them out of the EU against their will. :evil:


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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:02 am

As for Northern Ireland...
Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 75256.html

So, if the UK stays in the EU, a vast majority of people in Northern Ireland want to remain in the UK, but if they go through with Brexit, a majority would prefer to join Ireland instead.

If May wants to keep the UK as an entity, she had better find a way to back out of Brexit. :drink:

Or as Doire Finn puts it:
"Arlene Foster and the DUP's stance on Brexit has advanced the nationalist cause further than 40 years of IRA violence ever managed."
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:09 am

ukcanuck wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:40 am
A trump supporter in bed with brexiteers, who would have guessed?
Putin? :look:

https://www.ft.com/content/4610a4be-dde ... d397e6661c

I also saw reported at the time that roughly one third of "British" tweets regarding Brexit originated from Russian servers.
That sort of hinted at how important the Russians thought the referendum was to them.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/15/study ... e-to-vote/
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Strangelove » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:11 pm

ukcanuck wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:40 am
A trump supporter in bed with brexiteers, who would have guessed?
A Trump hater in bed with socialism, who would have guessed? :roll:

ukcanuck wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:40 am
How many referendums? As many as the people want indefinitely, it’s called democracy.
So they can never Leave because we'll just keep having more referendums, yeahno that's not democracy comrade.

The people have spoken, deal with it...

ukcanuck wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:40 am
What will the leavers do when Scotland has another referendum, scream that they can’t have one because it’s not democratic?
Scotland already had their referendum and voted to remain part of the UK.

They said NO to "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The people have spoken, deal with it comrade...

ukcanuck wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:40 am
The leave side campaigned on how it would be better out of the EU but so far all that has been shown is that things are sinificantly worse out of the EU.

The leavers said the EU Would dread losing one third of its economy and would beg for a deal.

Reality? EU totally cool with fuck off UK no deal.
Patience grasshopper, they don't Leave until March 29th.

Leavers have long said short term pain for long term gain.

Everyone knew the EEE (Evil European Empire) would make things as difficult as possible

... in order to discourage other countries from leaving.
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