The Brexit disaster

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Uncle dans leg
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Uncle dans leg » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:40 pm

Bang on ma man!

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Per
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:09 am

There doesn't seem to be an overwhelming risk of any other EU-member copying the British strategy.

Granted, in Italy (49%) and in the Czech Republic (47%) there is not an absolute majority stating they would vote to remain, but those stating they would vote to leave are just 19% and 24% respectively

In Sweden 81% would vote to remain, so I think I can sleep safe and sound at night. :D

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Also interesting to see that on the question whether your country has benefitted or not from being a member of the EU, a resounding majority in Poland and Hungary, countries where the governments thrive on an anti-EU message, say it's been good.

There are even 54% in the UK that agree it has been good for the country. So why did those wankers vote for Brexit then? :mad:

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The only country where more people say the country has not benefitted than who say it has benefitted is Italy.

Even the Greek (abbreviated EL; ISO codes are not always that easy to decipher, but it is because they call themselves Ελλάδα) are happier with the EU than that.


:drink:


http://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-s ... r-2019.pdf
Last edited by Per on Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:14 am

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Last edited by Per on Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:15 am

And an absolute favourite:

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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Sun May 19, 2019 7:22 am

Possible Brexit-effekt?

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Britain ended dead last after having received just 16 points from the juries and not a single point from the televoting.
Not. A. Single. Point. Now that's cold. :mrgreen:

Granted, neither the song nor the singer were any good, but still...

And yes. Australia and Israel are part of Europe. In a way. Sort of. Turkey too.
Bet Canada could be as well?
I mean, Celine Dion has won the Eurovision once.... :oops:

But when it comes to football (FIFA), Australia is considered part of Asia.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Fri May 24, 2019 2:33 am

Theresa May resigns.

Well, so she says.

She also said Britain would leave the EU in March.
They still haven't and thus currently hold European Parliament elections, to elect MPs that may or may not be sworn in on July 1st, if Britain at that point is still a EU member.

So we should probably wait and see if she actually does leave 10 Downing street... :drink:
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by micky107 » Fri May 24, 2019 8:31 am

Image
"evolution"

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Per
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Mon May 27, 2019 7:55 am

The European election results in the UK demonstrate how fed up the UK now is with their main parties; the tories, the party that is currently governing the UK, came in fifth, with less than 9% of the vote! :shock:

The results are still provisional, but...

Brexit Party 31.7% (29 seats)
Liberal Democrats 18.5% (16 seats)
Labour Party 14.1% (10 seats)
Green Party 11.1% (7 seats)
Conservative Party 8.7% (4 seats)
UKIP 3.6% (0 seats)
Scottish National Party 3.3% (3 seats)
Change UK 2.9% (0 seats)
Plaid Cymru 1.7% (1 seat)
Sinn Fein 0.6% (1 seat)
DUP 0.6% (1 seat)
Alliance Party 0,5% (1 seat)

The ill match between percentages and seats is because of the odd mix of proportional and regional representation the UK uses. Thus a party that has most votes in a single or a few districts has a better chance of gaining seats than a party that has its votes spread proporionally over a greater area.

Anyway, some 36% voted for parties that are clearly pro-Brexit (Brexit Party, UKIP, DUP) and some 36% voted for parties that are clearly anti-Brexit (LibDems, Greens, SNP, Change UK) leaving the wishy-washy Tory and Labour parties behind.

This will only complicate things further, as the message heard by the tories will be to push hard for Brexit and the message heard by Labour will be to demand a second referendum, while neither party will want to face new general elections, so the gridlock will probably grow even worse.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Mon May 27, 2019 8:00 am

As for the general continent wide results of the European elections...

This is a pretty good place to look for an overview of the results: https://election-results.eu/ ... and aptly named, imho.

The European Parliament will get messier. Up till now, the two major party groups, ie the EPP (consisting of christian democrats and pro-EU conservatives) and the S&D (progressives and social democrats) have together commanded more than half the votes and despite their differences they have usually agreed on what issues to pursue through backroom deals and awarded most prominent jobs to members of one or the other of these two groups. This will no longer be possible.

In the new parliament they will only have 325 seats (EPP 180, S&D 145), 51 seats shy of a majority. And while these two giants have shrunk, three other groups have grown in importance:

ALDE, the Alliance of liberals and democrats (including eg Macron's Renaissaince movement and the LibDems of the UK) now holds 109 seats.

Green/EFA, mostly green parties but also some regionals such as the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru, has 69

ECR / EFDD / ENF; Three groups of scary rightwingers/nationalists that don't really get along amongst themselves either but have a combined 171 seats.

The ECR includes the tories and the Sweden Democrats, the EFDD includes the Brexit Party and the Italian Lega and the ENF includes the French National Front.

Apart from these major players, the left wing GUE/NGL (United European Left/Nordic Green Left) holds 39 seats and then there are at present 38 unaffiliated seats, including those of Greece's Golden Dawn, a bunch of murderous neo-nazis noone else wants to hang out with.

It will be hard to form a stable majority out of this diverse group. I mean, if you just look at this with a traditional left-right perspective, it should be easy to form a conservative majority, but the problem is that the EPP is firmly pro-EU, while the three scary right wing groups are nationalists and anti-EU. And even if all of these right wingers could unite, they'd be 20 seats short and would need the backing of eg ALDE, but this would mean Macron and LePen joining forces, so good luck with that!

Building from the left seems equally impossible. Sweden's current government is formed by the social democrats and the Green Party and backed by the Liberal and Centre parties, both members of ALDE, so let's play with the idea of something similar on a European scale. But S&D, the Greens and ALDE only add up to 323 seats. 53 seats short of a majority. They would need the inclusion of the United European Left as well as most of the unaffiliated seats to reach a majority. Won't work. Remember that the biggest player within ALDE is Macron, and he is as hated by the left as he is by the nationalists. One of his pet projects in France has been to weaken the trade unions. That does not play well with the left wingers.

Even the slightly unrealistic option of a coalition forming between the EPP, ALDE and the Greens would only reach 358 seats, 18 shy of a majority.

Guess the only way forward is to continue the unholy alliance between EPP and S&D but with the addition of either the Greens or ALDE or both.

Either that or forming different majorities on different issues, but that will probably be even messier.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per » Wed May 29, 2019 12:39 pm

Still hope for the world!

Boris Johnson will be tried in court over lying to and misleading the public!

https://www.ft.com/content/d11dd7ee-81e ... 75bb96c849

Maybe the Americans should consider something similar? :sly:
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