GDT - Feb 19, 2012 Nucks @ Oilers 6PM SNET-PAC

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Larry Goodenough
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Re: GDT - Feb 19, 2012 Nucks @ Oilers 6PM SNET-PAC

Post by Larry Goodenough » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:52 pm

Southern_Canuck wrote:
Larry Goodenough wrote:Somewhat true where looking just at scoring chances, however, quality of linemates and quality of competition are covered in advanced stats under qualcomp and qualteam categories. Corsi ratings are also measured against linemates and opposition under "Corsi Relative to Quality of competition and Corsi relative to Quality of teammates." Corsi when you're on the ice, vs your team's corsi when you're off the ice also gives a glimpse into your usefullness to your team.

Also my previous post was simply an argument that Rome is not "useless". He does get selected minutes and was playing against the Oilers, but a plus 3 scoring chance differential seems to point to him having a "serviceable" game more that "useless".
Just to be clear, I am a big fan of Rome in the 5-7 slot. I just thought the "scoring chance" stats you gave were misleading.

OK, I just studied up on Corsi stats you mentioned, and although they rely extensively on shots attempted without qualitative ratings of the shots, they are still interesting:

Corsi Number = (Shots on Target For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots Against ) - (Shots on Target Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots For)

Relative Corsi Number = Corsi Number of player - Corsi Number of Team when player not on ice

2011/12 5-on-5 Rel Corsi for Canucks defencemen:
Bieksa 10.0
Hamhuis 8.3
Edler 3.3
Salo -2.1
Sulzer -2.1
Rome -11.9
Ballard -13.9
Alberts -13.9
Tanev -16.7

Corsi Rel QoC is the weighted Relative Corsi Number of a player's opponents.
For example, if a player plays 30% of the time against five players with a relative corsi of +1.5, 35% of the time against five players with a relative corsi number of +0.2, and 35% of the time against five players with a relative corsi number of -2.1 then:
Corsi Rel QoC = (0.3 * 5 * 1.5) + (0.35 * 5 * 0.2) + (0.35 * (5 * (-2.1)) = -1.075

2011/12 5-on-5 Corsi Rel QoC for Canucks defencemen:
Bieksa 0.867
Hamhuis 0.800
Salo 0.711
Edler 0.695
Tanev 0.387
Sulzer -0.126
Rome -0.448
Ballard -0.461
Alberts -0.472

Tanev and Sulzer have very few games played, so take that into account.


Nice work. Corsi is often misunderstood. It's a puck possession stat, not a shots stat. The idea is if you have 54% of all shots directed at the opponents net, then you most likely have the puck 54% of the time. When you've got the puck, you have 0% chance of being scored upon and have a 7-10 % chance of scoring on a shot that you can only take if you have the puck (based on goalie save %). It's a way to measure a player's two way ability as suppressing shots thru defense and puck retrieval are equally as valuable as generating a shot. Somehow, some way, these stats guys can then take those numbers and combine them with the average numbers of the opposition and you get rankings of puck possession in relation to the quality of your opponent.

Gillis and Vigneault are looking at these stats all the time. Take a look at where Ballard is compared to Rome. That's why they're essentially the same d-man in their eyes, it's not because Vigneault doesn't "like" Ballard.

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