MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by Topper »

I know the same story as HW from a different source. it was the reasoning behind this post.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by Cousin Strawberry »

ukcanuck wrote:
FAN wrote:I don't know HW... Luongo's playoff meltdowns were there for all to see. How many times have we seen him play well all game, lets in a goal, then lets in two to three goals in the span of seconds to minutes? How many times do you have to see Luongo have a meltdown in the playoffs before losing confidence?
I don't know how you figure Cory outplayed luongo
Luongo has basically turned in 30+ win seasons every year he has been here
Cory has yet to even play 30 games in a season

Luongo has won 6 playoff series for the Canucks as starter
Cory is 1-5 in playoff starts

While I do agree that Cory has looked better at times he simply has not been under the microscope as much so far and he has not really risen to the occasion with all the pressure squat on him either.

Cory might be a better goalie I don't know but he definitely has not outplayed anyone, he has barely played...
Noble loyalty UK...but...

It can't honesty get much worse than your nickname, born of playoff failures, graduating from 7uongo to Luon8o.

That shit makes him pretty well worthless to trade and loses us the better goalie by default.

Schneids hasn't sucked the ass Luongo has...yet anyways
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by dbr »

Good Tyler Dellow post on the deal.
I tend to think that Gillis got good value for Schneider. I went back through the last ten year’s worth of drafts and looked for picks that were plus or minus five spots from the ninth overall that Vancouver acquired for Cory Schneider and that were traded in trades that weren’t primarily pick trades. There aren’t a lot.

...

When you look at the calibre of player it takes to acquire a pick in this range, it seems generally to be pretty high to me. There’s the odd screwup – Toskala, Varlamov, Penner and Jokinen, although in three of those cases, you can argue that the team giving up the pick probably (foolishly) didn’t expect that the pick would be so high. Jeff Carter, Phil Kessel, Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Stewart and Jordan Staal can all play. You could build a Cup contender around those players.

The players acquired with those picks have, generally speaking, turned out to be really good players to great players too. This is where I think that the people complaining about the return are kind of missing the point. The thing about a pick in the top ten is that you’re talking about a player who has a non-marginal chance of being an honest to god star in the NHL. That potential, which may or may not be realized, has real value.

Imagine if someone offered you a lottery ticket for a 6/49 draw that had a 1/1,000 chance of winning $10,000,000. How much would be willing to pay for it? You might say “Well, 1/1000*10,000,000=$10,000. That ticket has an expected value to me of $10,000 so I wouldn’t pay more than that.” You might also quite reasonably say “I’d notice if $15,000 was gone but it wouldn’t change my life. $10,000,000 would. I’d be willing to risk a negative expected return for something potentially life changing.”

Acquiring an elite player for nothing more than the cost of a draft pick is life changing for NHL teams. Rightly or wrongly, teams are able to command awfully high prices for those draft picks. There’s no guarantee but they seem to treat the possibility as being enough to command a high price. It is, I think, defensible to do so.

.....

All of that said, the Canucks seem to me to be a stronger team now than they were two days ago. They acquired a really good prospect in exchange for a slight reduction in the ability of their goaltending, given that only one goalie can play at a time. The price seems reasonable to me, given the way in which NHL teams have historically valued the possibility of striking gold in the draft. If the return seems to be something that helps in the future rather than now, well, that’s kind of been the way that the Canucks are operated. If you tend to think that a consistently well run team will win a Cup eventually, as I do, it’s hard to be too critical of that, even if you kind of look at the clock and wonder how much longer a Cup contender can be built around the Sedins.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by dbr »

The situation is a mess.

Of course you're indulging in a nasty superlatives habit in describing it, but undoubtedly this did not go as planned.

Using 20/20 hindsight, I do believe there were a couple of other outcomes (based on the rumours we've heard which I think are reasonable) that would have been preferable, but not many and certainly none that wouldn't give Gillis detractors ammunition (if anyone really cares about that).

I can see the reasoning behind trying to wait this situation out however and I don't think the eventual outcome has been quite as bad as some make it out to be.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by tantalum »

Mondi wrote: 1. Gillis signed RL to a ridiculous contract (even under the old system). The guy had already experienced two epic playoff meltdowns and he was re-signed until he was 42. And, Cory was waiting in the wings.
incorrect. The extension was signed Sept 2009. He did not have two epic meltdowns under his belt (and the meltdown was game 6...other than that he was fine). One game or series does not make a trend. If it did Brodeur and Roy would be some of the worst signings ever.
2. Gillis (and AV) gave Luongo the C, and then stripped it from him.
And it was willingly accepted and given back. Really isn't a huge deal.
3. Gillis broadcasted to the league that he wanted to trade Luongo. Then failed to do it for over a year.
And Luongo for much of that year widely broadcasted he wanted to go to Florida. For much of the year he also couldn't be traded (lockout) and the ground shifted. It has now been widely speculated/"confirmed" that up until the season began Luongo was only willing to go to Florida and would not consider other options. And Florida apparently didn't want him.
4. Gillis (and AV) groomed CS into an elite talent, those who believe he hasn't proved it haven't been watching. The guy has the best SAV% in NHL history. You cannot fake your way through 98 career starts and, in all of his playoff starts (i.e. 100% of them) he has been thrown into the lion's den.
Oh god. He has yet to start more than 30 games in a year. Are you sure you can't fake your way through 98 starts spread over 3 years? Jim Carey faked his way through about 100 starts and won a Vezina doing so (and he atleast played over 70 games the one season). Ray Emery did it for a 30+ win season with fantastic numbers. A recent compariosn would be Halak who did something similar with the Habs with a couple very good seasons, was anointed the next best thing and has yet to actually establish himself of a go to starter. 30 games in a season is a whole lot different than 60+ games.

He's a fine goaltender and may very well be an elite talent (I think he likely is) but he has NOT proven it one way or another at this point. Also, I think it has been shown enough times now that you do not need elite goaltenders to win in this league.
5. Gillis equivocated for so long on this matter that now he's been forced to trade the team's MVP for a draft pick (albeit a good one) and go groveling back to the deposed starter who wanted to be out of town over 12 months ago.
So? He has two good goaltenders and couldn't trade one of them. So he traded the other. Yeah it sucks he couldn't move Luongo to somewhere even for Luongo's sake but there is more than one side to the story as well.
6. Now the team is relying on a guy who is 34, hasn't had a good playoff series since 2011, is terrible in the shootout, and who has no credible back up.
Luongo in 2011/2012 was 0.500 on shootouts. Schneider was 0.500 last season.

34 ain't old. He played over 50 games the season before with 0.919 SV%. He has had two years below a 0.913 SV% in his career. His rookie season and this past season (a small sample size that one game destroyed his numbers). There is nothing that suggests a true decline in play. Nothing.

Schneider hasn't had a good playoff series in, well, ever.

Seriously now we are complaining about no backup? Guess what you trade, waive or buyout Luongo and that situation is EXACTLY the same. Except worse because Schneider has never started more than 30 games and you have no idea if he can carry the load.
The deal, in a vacuum is reasonable. Given the other circumstances...seems pretty Ringling Brothers to me.
Was it the first choice? Likely not but that doesn't make it a circus. There is some loose ends to tie up or some mess to clean up but by and large it has been handled pretty well by all parties. The landscape changed and instead of hurting the organization they made a move that in the end helps the organization (IMO).
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by herb »

Wow. As the Canucks world turns.

I can’t say I am totally shocked, but it was still somewhat sobering to see Schneider traded. I am a big fan of Schneider and think he’s going to be a great NHL goaltender. That’s not to say there aren’t question marks, but all the signs were pointing in the right direction.

As others have noted, GMMG was in a bad situation. Some of that was his own making (prematurely declaring Schneider as the #1 of the future), some of it was good fortune (the Canucks should be applauded for developing Schneider) and some of it was bad luck (lockout and new CBA, which Gillis has no control over).

Looking back to this past weekend, I think Gillis made the tough but right decision. He was in a tough spot. If he traded Luongo for nothing, he would have gotten flamed. If he bought out Luongo the team would really be no better, or maybe marginally better. If he traded Schneider for a veteran there would have been the same cap problems and the same conversation about the Canucks having no prospect depth.

I think three years ago most would have been over the moon to get a high level forward prospect like Horvat for Schneider. Now that it’s happened, it sad to see Schneider go, but I am really excited to see what Horvat can do.

Gaunce, Horvat and Shinkaruk…all of a sudden the future is not looking so bleak!

Obviously this wasn’t the ideal way to go about this, but it’s done. Luongo couldn’t be traded. That’s too bad but that’s reality. We got a good return for Schneider, and still have a pretty good goaltender in Luongo.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by Lancer »

What strikes me is at the end of the day, that long-term contract delivered on its intent - to make Luongo a Canuck for the rest of his career.

Notwithstanding what personal aspects for Luongo and his family may have (or still) affected him and his play, in the end it's upon both sides to admit to themselves that they're together for the long haul (trade windows notwithstanding) and may as well make the best of it. You have a top-calibre goalie locked up for years at a reasonable cap hit. That top-calibre goalie is a starter on a team which still has a reasonable ability to contend as opposed to being on a bottom feeder with hopes of making the playoffs. Not a bad situation, when you take the emotion out of the equation.

Why do I sound like a marriage counsellor???

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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by Lancer »

Mondi wrote:But, if you consider this an example of shrewd GM work, I've got a bridge for sale.
Regardless of how GMMG ended up in the situation in which he found himself, given that situation and his options he did the best he could. Aquaman was not going to pay Lu to play somewhere else; no other GM was going to trade for him when they could sweat it out and get him as a FA; Gillis was facing a deep draft with a pick in the back third of the order and no 2nd-rounders (and a prospect crop that wasn't promising much if the pundits were believed); and he had to get under the cap.

Crap all you want on Gillis for getting himself into that situation, but at least he did something before he ran out of options. If he was as foolish as your portrayal of Gillis would have us believe, he would have pulled a No-Nuts and still be left holding the bag with two goalies, one pick in the top 60 of the draft and be on his knees with Francesco pleading for a buy-out.

Call me a glass-half-full kind of guy, but I'll appreciate the best of a bad bunch of options.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by ORCA »

+1 DBR

I tried (albeit much less concisely) to explain this on the golf course Sunday afternoon when the news rolled out.

I also like "the devil you know" scenario.

This was the best move for the Canucks long term. Maybe having Lu back as the #1 will force a few mouthfulls of humble pie down this incredibly knee-jerk reactionary fanbase. One can hope.

Mondi's points:

1. Its widely received that Luongo's contract under the "new" CBA (7 years ago) was a very good deal. A whale to be sure, but under continued support of that CBA (that owners signed and then hated)... that contract was not in outerspace so long as Luongo was solid his prime years. It is incredible how many mind-readers and fortune tellers only pipe up after something has happened.

2. Agree. They should never have given it to him, and past his pride, Luongo knows that. It was a publicity stunt, not unlike the 7th man bullshit the organization tried to pull over us in the same season. He was a leader through professionalism and dedication to his game. Leaders do not need a letter stitched on their Jerseys to do so.

3. Whats your point? GMs chat way more than what gets reported. By this time, Luongo's contract was (and is) working hard against any trade opportunity. Bring into the equation Lockout Delays, uncertainty of schedule and impact of a shortened season, and "failing" to trade him becomes pretty understandable.

4. What a completely ridiculous stat. Luongo sits 5th ALL TIME (qualifying criteria of 200 gp) with .919 SAV%. Maintained over 740+ games. He also has an oustide, but possible chance of overtaking Brodeurs ALL TIME shut out record. If Schneider retains .920 and above after another 100 games, then talk about that. Best in NHL history :lol: .... that's like taking Johan Franzen or Claude Lemieux's 1 mega playoff run and comparing them to Gretzky, Crosby, and Mario.

5. Speculation. None of us know what they talk about. Luongo is a gamer and likely is just happy (professionaly) that he is the undisputed starter now. Egos to feed and all that... but if you think he's the only one with an ego... well... :stupid:

6. When shootouts matter in the playoffs, that becomes a bigger problem. You should think about why it is our 2 most skilled offensive players don't even shoot in our top 3 lineup.

Vancouver makes it a circus. Bottom line in September is that these guys are multimillion dollar employees and will be expected to go to work in whatever capacity they are charged with. In Vancouver or Florida, Luongo will put pads on and stop pucks because the sour grapes approach will do nothing for his career but hurt it. More people should be happy that we have a pissed off world-class goalie with something to prove.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by herb »

The common folk around the office today are really ripping into the Canucks for the apparent disgusting, reprehensible, cowardly and unfathomable treatment of Luongo.

Luongo is a professional who, not that long ago, signed a massive contract to play in Vancouver for the rest of his career. He made that commitment, and then wanted to move on shortly thereafter. He is the one who brought up being traded. He is the one who went on national TV looking like his dog died when he wasn’t moved at the deadline.

Clearly, the Canucks tried to accommodate his request, but found there to be no market. How many of us thought Roberto was worth one, two, or even three draft picks and / or prospects? It’s tough to believe, but he is worth nothing on the trade market.

Luongo also allegedly vetoed a trade to Toronto at last year’s NHL draft because he thought a deal to Florida could be done. Gillis tried to trade Luongo to Toronto at the trade deadline, but Nonis wouldn’t even give up a second round draft pick.

It seems as though Gillis made some mistakes on the PR front, but overall, the team bent over backwards to try to move Roberto. Can the Canucks really be faulted for believing a future HOF goaltender was worth more than a bag of pucks? I certainly can’t blame Aquilini for not wanting to buy out Luongo.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by tantalum »

You sound like a huge apologist for a guy who just traded a player that was trending toward the Vezina before he got hurt. Please don't compare Luongo to Roy and Brodeur. They have 7 cup rings between them.
not an apologist at all. I too would have preferred Schneider over Luongo. But the reality is that from everything we've seen heard and can insinuate it wasn't going to happen in any manner that would help the team. I wasn't comparing Luongo to those two, I was saying if you go through their career they to have many meltdowns under their belts. It happens. it also happens that without Luongo they don't get anywhere near game 7.
As for Schneider faking it? And not needing elite goaltending to win? Hahahahahhahahahahahhahahahhahahah :shock: :lol:
Never said he faked it per se. He has good numbers resulting from good play, no doubt. So to did Jim Carey who has a Vezina on his shelf. Is Cory Schneider the next best goaltender or does his play even out as it did for Carey price or Cam Ward or countless other young goaltenders? i also didn't say anything about elite goaltending...I said elite goaltenders. There is a difference. you need excellent goaltending to win but that need not come from someone you would consider an elite goaltender. At least Corey Crawford is nowhere near elite in my books, despite providing what needed to be provided.
As for speculation about where Luongo would go? I'll leave you to speculate.
i don't need to speculate. The media has done so and multiple people in that media believe that Luongo wasn't really open to going anywhere else until the season began.
And this is all not to mention the effect this whole scenario has had on the player who remains with the team. Assuming he can resume his career at the same level as before (i.e. at a high level), what about his mental state? Does he want to be here? Will he report? Does he feel loyal to the organization? Likely the answer is yes to all the questions, but the distraction remains, at least until the season starts and the team plays well.
If the answers are yes to those things then there is no issue. The media, especially the Vancouver media, will always find some distraction. Hell they wanted to start it this past season when Cory got pulled in game 1! If Gillis let Luongo go for nothing (i.e. waivers) they'd go one about how he had two great goaltenders and didn't improve the organization.
Listen, I know this wasn't easy for the team, the management or the player. And, I know being an armchair GM is easy. Heck, this Horvat could knock our socks off and make us forget about Cory

But, if you consider this an example of shrewd GM work, I've got a bridge for sale.
Seriously what else was possible? the only other option is buying Luongo out or, likely, losing him on waivers. Some would argue it is quite shrewd to have two goaltenders capable of providing good goaltending. it didn't work out the way likely anyone wanted but in the end the trade was good. he had two goaltenders to deal a year ago and many would have been reasonably content with a top 10 pick. Likely a little something more but hey no one pays much for goaltenders these days. That IS what happened though it was admittedly a tortuous path to get to this point.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by Spock »

*Arachnid said* "I agree he made you a fan because you are a weak flip flopper that has no hockey sense whatsoever probably raised to loose morals and values by a pack of hookers...

I will go on record that this will be the worse deal the Canucks have ever made and will make the Neely trade look like the greatest deal like eva....

Luo does not want to be in Van anymore. We all know why.

Now we have no number 1 goalie for our future. Great!

I hate Mike Gillis and cheer the day he will be quietly drowned in English Bay by a bunch of ugly plaid and heavy black boot wearing burn-outs from the glee East Side :D"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was Schneider your favorite Canuck or something?

Spidey - sorry bud but you are wrong. The Neely trade is and will likely be the worst deal still. Schneider might prove to be a good goaltender, but he won't be a HOF guy. No way.

The sky is falling Spidey....better get in your hole.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by herb »

Mondi wrote:Alright, if we are looking at this is a triage situation then Gillis did a good job. I'll concede that.

Management by triage though...yipes.
Yikes is right, but I don’t think there is a pattern to worry about.

This was a shitty but unique situation. I am still disappointed and don’t quite understand how Luongo has zero trade value. If there was any value there I don’t think Schneider would have been traded.
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by Lancer »

Mondi wrote:Alright, if we are looking at this is as a triage situation then Gillis did a good job. I'll concede that.

However, I won't concede that just because you CAN win with Corey Crawford you should try it. It also helps having Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith on your team.

Management by triage though...yipes.
Agreed that it's not a viable way to do business, and I'm pretty sure Gillis would rather not do business that way either.

I don't think he's out of the woods yet, what with trying to get Lu's mind back into Canuck colours and ready to be the #1 in Vancouver again.

Provided that does happen, though, it will be telling how he moves forward from this uncomfortable turn of events. Will we see the Gillis of his first year in Vancouver, or his latest year?
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Re: MacKenzie: Corey Schneider to NJ for 9th overall pick

Post by ORCA »

Mondi wrote:Alright, if we are looking at this is a triage situation then Gillis did a good job. I'll concede that.

Management by triage though...yipes.

What other option, when considering the scenario that played out, did you think there was in this instance?

With an increased cap, Schneider will be asking for (and likely receiving) more than Luongo coin when he re-signs. If there's any length to it, Jersey (or whomever) will front load as well.

Luongo's contract allows Aqualini substantially better cash flow at that time.
Edit: This also makes Luongo more attractive to teams with Cap-floor issues. A trade past 2015 makes the 5.33M cap hit attainable with only a couple bigger salary years to swallow, then an extremely reasonable sub 2M for the twillight of his career.

If you go back to Moneypuck economics...under comparable stats, Luongo is arguably the safer (and better) bet for long-run cap management.
Last edited by ORCA on Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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