Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Welcome to the main forum of our site. Anything and everything to do with the Vancouver Canucks is dicussed and debated here.

Moderator: Referees

User avatar
Tciso
CC Hall of Fan Member
Posts: 2157
Joined: Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:44 am

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Tciso »

ukcanuck wrote: Admittedly without reading back on this thread I am assuming that tanking the season to sweeten the Canucks chances in the McMoses sweepstakes next draft year is still a Betamax bone....

Buying lottery tickets on the off chance that one's numbers might come up is one thing, but banking on winning a lottery in any way is ridiculous financial management, so is the beta plan.

IF The Canucks are not a playoff team come trade deadline day, that's when it's time to talk about buying a tank.
If we are not in the playoff hunt, I can see a lot of guys suddenly available if it gets us a good return of prospects/draft picks. I wouldn't call it tanking, but, an "aggressive" rebuild. Also, we'll be playing the Utica troops a lot next spring if we are out of the playoffs, so trading a few declining value parts opens up roster spots.

Still, I would like nothing better than the 25th or 26th overall pick next year :)
The Cup is soooooo ours!!!!!!!
Betamax
CC Hall of Fan Member
Posts: 1353
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: @betamax1080p

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Betamax »

Jovocop wrote:
Betamax wrote:
Jovocop wrote: Yes, but 1% vs 99% type of odds...
Well, the NBA Cavs won the 2014 draft lottery with a 1.7% chance (lowest odds, best record not to make Playoffs) and drafted "Maple Jordan."


The NHL previously had it at 0.5% chance for the best team not to make the Playoffs but as bro dave pointed out, the NHL is going to "smooth" the odds so that percentage should increase ... how much, it hasn't to my knowledge been reported. :mex:
I know there are also people winning lotteries somewhere each day but the chances are... very slim at best.

From what I read, the new rule won't be applicable until 2016.
duh, the odds of winning the NHL draft lottery and hitting the jackpot is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than winning the jackpot in those conventional lotteries (6/49 etc.). Like I pointed out the Cavs' with their relatively low 1.7% chance of winning, WON their draft lottery.

In order to have a chance at the 1st overall pick, you have to miss the Playoffs.


So, with next year's quality of a franchise changing top pick, it's not the end of the world to miss it for a chance.

The "new rule" you are referencing isn't what I was referring to. I was referring to the "smoothing" out of the percentage the team could in theory "win" the lottery. i.e. the best team not to make the Playoffs (the team with the 14th worst record) should have a better than 0.5% chance of winning it, moving forward.

In other words, it has been reported that the team with the worst record who previously had a 25% chance at winning the draft lottery will now drop to around 20%. Those percentages from the shittier teams that had a greater shot at winning will be re-allocated down to the "not as shitty" teams that missed the playoffs and that 0.5% chance, for example, will increase ... how much, those exact numbers have not been reported AFAIK. :mex:

Edited: To add more awesomeness to the post ..................... 8-)
Last edited by Betamax on Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:29 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Betamax
CC Hall of Fan Member
Posts: 1353
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: @betamax1080p

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Betamax »

ukcanuck wrote:Admittedly without reading back on this thread I am assuming that tanking the season to sweeten the Canucks chances in the McMoses sweepstakes next draft year is still a Betamax bone....
IF you're not willing to do your due diligence and willing to read what has been previously stated, you should just keep quiet and stop embarrassing yourself. Image
Buying lottery tickets on the off chance that one's numbers might come up is one thing, but banking on winning a lottery in any way is ridiculous financial management, so is the beta plan.

IF

The Canucks are not a playoff team come trade deadline day, that's when it's time to talk about buying a tank.

duh, like I said in my reply to the other poster, missing the Playoffs .... the ODDS are significantly higher to "win" the jackpot, then "buying a lottery ticket" from your corner store.

You should actually study the percentages before you make such an asinine analogy.

You're not really "banking" .... because even if you don't win, you're guaranteed a top 14 pick ... however, you have a chance at no. 1.

In other words, the 15th worst team that just makes the Playoffs, which is a possibility with the Canucks next season, and so happens to face the no. 1 seed in their conference and subsequently with high probability get their asses kicked and embarrassed, get to select 15 but with no shot at no. 1.

Obviously, it's better to be a shittier team in the end of the season standings (with the most optimal position being the shittiest since you can only drop 1 spot for the 2015 draft and still be able to draft a can't miss franchise player with the no. 2 pick) but given how Linden and Co. has decided to re-tool, rather than completely tear down the team, I don't like their chances to be in the mix for being the shittiest team in the league. Probably in the mix for a wild card spot (which would put them in the 10-14 position if they so happen to miss the Playoffs). :mex:
User avatar
Strangelove
Moderator & MVP
Moderator & MVP
Posts: 28166
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 12:13 pm
Location: Lake Vostok

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Strangelove »

Strangelove wrote:
ClamRussel wrote: Wwwwwwwowza!!
Yeah, I see a lot of Leafers lapping this up as some kind of next generation moneypuck Kyle Dumbass thing.

"If he's a player you believe in..." stupid Leafers say, "... lock him up to a lower cap-hit while you can!"

:hmmm:

Now, normally a team gives a guy in Gardiner's position a two-year bridge deal at... say... $2.5m per.

Then after those two years they still control the player and have a better idea of where he tops out.

IF he's awesome, you can lock him up (hopefully at a bit of a hometown discount) for 8 more years.

2 years + 8 years = 10 years (age 23/24 to age 33/34)

The way the Leaves have done this, they have 5 years of Gardiner, after which he is free to become a UFA.

Silly Leaves, 10 years > 5 years if he's "a player you believe in".

Gardiner will play his last game for the Leaves under this contract at age 28.

Add to that the fact Gardiner has only played 167 NHL games to date

... and the fact he's a career defenseman who has yet to learn to play DEFENSE. :roll:

See, apparently he has a very low hockey IQ...

... which leads us to the other possibility -> this contract becomes a bit of an albatross.
Then there's the Franson Factor...

After Franson's bridge deal expired, Leaves told Franson he had to prove himself before getting the big bucks.

So he finally, reluctantly, signed a one-year contract (for the shortened 2012-13 season).

Cody had a fantastic season, followed by an even better post-season.

Did the Leaves reward him with a long-term contract as promised?

Nope.

They told him he still hadn't proven himself yet and that he wasn't using his size enough.

So another one-year "prove yourself" contract for Cody (last season).

Cody goes out and leads the league in hits while having to babysit Gardiner/Rielly (overall play declined).

Leaves still don't want to give him term + dollars and only at the point of a gun (impending arbitration)

.... do they sign him to yet-another one-year term ($3.3m for this upcoming season).

But NOW they have no problem throwing Gardiner term + money coming off his entry-level deal!

Mixed messages and personally I think Franson is the more valuable defenseman.

So now they will be losing Franson and overpaying (at least in the short term) Gardiner.

Coach Carlyle has made it clear he prefers Franson to Gardiner, but management sees it differently.

Can you say "dysfunctional"?

There has been a lot of talk by hockey pundits of how much Gardiner and Carlyle hate each other.

And at the end of last season Leaf-insiders Dreger and Kypreos said one would have to go this off-season.

So... Franson hates management, Gardiner hates the coach, and Reimer hates everybody! :thumbs:

Strange, strange, organization.

Strong rumours this summer about the Leaves trying to trade all of these guys but not unless they get full value.

Not gonna happen.

On one hand they'll begrudgingly hang onto malcontents, but on the other hand they prefer Kessel Klubbers.

If you're friends with Kessel they'll overpay you (Bozo, Phaneuf, Clarkson, Frattin, Gardiner, Komarov)

(and I think the only reason they brought Kontiola on board is because he's best pals with Komarov).

In closing, I can only say Mr Kadri better start making the right friends in the room if he wants the big bucks.

And Carlyle can say buh-bye pretty quick if he doesn't dump Franson for Gardiner in a hurry.

As The Stomach Turns.
____
GO CANUCKS GO!!!
User avatar
Topper
CC Legend
Posts: 12287
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:11 pm
Location: Earth, most days.

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Topper »

Considering MLSE sucks at sports, they may as well entertain.

Does the "M" stand for Malaysian?
Over the Internet, you can pretend to be anyone or anything.

I'm amazed that so many people choose to be complete twats.
User avatar
Meds
CC Legend
Posts: 8034
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:50 pm

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds »

PK Subban and the Habs not even in the same ballpark.

Subban is asking $8.5M. Canadiens are offering $5.25M and a one-year deal.

Not sure what the Habs are thinking here. Kris Letang hasn't won a Norris, he's not a big hitting defenseman, and hes about as reliable in his own end as PK Subban is. IMO, Letang isn't as good, he doesn't rush the puck as effectively, and he has benefited in a big way from having some of the league's best players on the ice with him, something that Subban cannot claim to have benefited from.....Letang got $7.25M.

Subban is at least worth as much as Letang. I think $8.5M is a bit much, $7.5 is reasonable. Montreal just low-balled him by over $2M.....and only offering a single year is a slap in the face. iF they get him low, and for a single season, now, they will have to trade him this year or pay through the nose next summer.
Betamax
CC Hall of Fan Member
Posts: 1353
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: @betamax1080p

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Betamax »

Meds wrote:PK Subban and the Habs not even in the same ballpark.

Subban is asking $8.5M. Canadiens are offering $5.25M and a one-year deal.

Not sure what the Habs are thinking here. Kris Letang hasn't won a Norris, he's not a big hitting defenseman, and hes about as reliable in his own end as PK Subban is. IMO, Letang isn't as good, he doesn't rush the puck as effectively, and he has benefited in a big way from having some of the league's best players on the ice with him, something that Subban cannot claim to have benefited from.....Letang got $7.25M.

Subban is at least worth as much as Letang. I think $8.5M is a bit much, $7.5 is reasonable. Montreal just low-balled him by over $2M.....and only offering a single year is a slap in the face. iF they get him low, and for a single season, now, they will have to trade him this year or pay through the nose next summer.
duh, I think the Habs' long term strategy is to get him locked up long-term before arbitration or sometime during the season. I think they are targeting a Drew Doughty type ~7M AAV contract in the 8 year year range but Subban's camp probably wants 8M+ or more in the 8 year range.

The Habs are playing a dangerous game if they tick him enough, he might just go year to year until he reaches UFA status which I think is two seasons away and maybe go back home to Toronto which would be the ultimate middle finger to them. :mex:
User avatar
Strangelove
Moderator & MVP
Moderator & MVP
Posts: 28166
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 12:13 pm
Location: Lake Vostok

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Strangelove »

Meds wrote:PK Subban and the Habs not even in the same ballpark.

Subban is asking $8.5M. Canadiens are offering $5.25M and a one-year deal.
Those are just the numbers given to the arbitrator (on a one-year contract).

Just part of the negotiation process.

Everyone knows Subban will get 8 X $8m to $9m.
____
GO CANUCKS GO!!!
User avatar
Strangelove
Moderator & MVP
Moderator & MVP
Posts: 28166
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 12:13 pm
Location: Lake Vostok

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Strangelove »

Betamax wrote: The Habs are playing a dangerous game if they tick him enough, he might just go year to year until he reaches UFA status which I think is two seasons away and maybe go back home to Toronto which would be the ultimate middle finger to them.
LOFL!!!

Yeah no, no one any good ever "goes home to Toronto". :lol:
____
GO CANUCKS GO!!!
User avatar
Hockey Widow
CC Legend
Posts: 16138
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:52 pm

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Hockey Widow »

Strangelove wrote:
Betamax wrote: The Habs are playing a dangerous game if they tick him enough, he might just go year to year until he reaches UFA status which I think is two seasons away and maybe go back home to Toronto which would be the ultimate middle finger to them.
LOFL!!!

Yeah no, no one any good ever "goes home to Toronto". :lol:

Both Stamkos and PK in 2016. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: Add to that all the lottery picks and they should be shaping up to be a decent team someday.
The only HW the Canucks need
User avatar
Meds
CC Legend
Posts: 8034
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:50 pm

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds »

Strangelove wrote:
Betamax wrote: The Habs are playing a dangerous game if they tick him enough, he might just go year to year until he reaches UFA status which I think is two seasons away and maybe go back home to Toronto which would be the ultimate middle finger to them.
LOFL!!!

Yeah no, no one any good ever "goes home to Toronto". :lol:
What about David Clarkson.....

:look:

Oh right..... :oops:

:lol:
User avatar
Meds
CC Legend
Posts: 8034
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:50 pm

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds »

Hockey Widow wrote:
Strangelove wrote:
Betamax wrote: The Habs are playing a dangerous game if they tick him enough, he might just go year to year until he reaches UFA status which I think is two seasons away and maybe go back home to Toronto which would be the ultimate middle finger to them.
LOFL!!!

Yeah no, no one any good ever "goes home to Toronto". :lol:

Both Stamkos and PK in 2016. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: Add to that all the lottery picks and they should be shaping up to be a decent team someday.
They still won't have any kind of defensive game.....
Betamax
CC Hall of Fan Member
Posts: 1353
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: @betamax1080p

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Betamax »

Strangelove wrote:
Meds wrote:PK Subban and the Habs not even in the same ballpark.

Subban is asking $8.5M. Canadiens are offering $5.25M and a one-year deal.
Those are just the numbers given to the arbitrator (on a one-year contract).

Just part of the negotiation process.

Everyone knows Subban will get 8 X $8m to $9m.
Yeah ... if I was going to make a prediction it will be in the higher end of the range, give 6 of those years will be during his UFA status. I'm going to predict 8 years for 72M (9M AAV).

i think It will be in that range +/- 4M in total (68M-76M) for 8 years. :mex:
Betamax
CC Hall of Fan Member
Posts: 1353
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: @betamax1080p

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Betamax »

Meds wrote:
Strangelove wrote:
Betamax wrote: The Habs are playing a dangerous game if they tick him enough, he might just go year to year until he reaches UFA status which I think is two seasons away and maybe go back home to Toronto which would be the ultimate middle finger to them.
LOFL!!!

Yeah no, no one any good ever "goes home to Toronto". :lol:
What about David Clarkson.....

:look:

Oh right..... :oops:

:lol:
To be fair to David "Wendell" Clarkson...... he did give the Leaves a "hometown" discount. I mean the vaunted Oilers Management team were willing to offer him more. :mex:
ESQ
MVP
MVP
Posts: 3213
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:34 pm

Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by ESQ »

Strangelove wrote: Strange, strange, organization.

Strong rumours this summer about the Leaves trying to trade all of these guys but not unless they get full value.

Not gonna happen.

On one hand they'll begrudgingly hang onto malcontents, but on the other hand they prefer Kessel Klubbers.
That's pretty classic Nonis, and to be fair was what we saw with Gillis the last 2 years.

Makes me even more grateful that Aquilini triggered a full regime change so that the shit could be cleaned out properly - had the Leaves done that after Burke they'd be in a much better position, instead of sitting with a shittier, more useless version of Burke.

Cleaning house isn't easy, and Nonis has never demonstrated the stones to do make a big move. I don't see that changing.
Post Reply