Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

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Island Nucklehead
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Island Nucklehead » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:33 pm

darren wrote:
Blob Mckenzie wrote:
darren wrote: I guess people can stop ragging on the Leaves for the Kessel trade now.
I take Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton 11 times out of 10 over Phill Kessel. Not to mention Kessel is a UFA while the other two are cost controlled for the next several years.
I realize that it's de rigueur around here to hate the Leaves and all their works, but this trade provides further evidence of what is already clear: Phil Kessel is better than Tyler Seguin. Hamilton might still end up tipping the scales but on the whole that trade is not as bad as it is made out to be.

Seguin makes 5.7m (in Sedin territory)... not sure how that is "cost controlled". Kessel's next contract won't be much higher than that, if at all. That's first line money and Seguin has yet to show he's a first line player. The Bruins aren't exactly loaded with scorers, yet Seguin still can't assert himself as part of the core? Kessel has proven to be a first liner, in spades. Look at the numbers... regular season, playoffs (4G against Boston, or 4x as many goals as Seguin managed in 1/3 the games).
Kessel was 8th in scoring last year. He was 6th the year before. His next contract could be for north of $8M a season. Getzlaf/Perry will be tossed around as comparison. If he signs for under $7.5M/per I'll be shocked.

Of course he's a better player than Tyler Seguin. He's also older. Over his first three seasons Kessel scored at a .41, .45 and .85 PPG pace. Seguin has done .30, .42 and .66 PPG. They could be very similar production-wise, if Seguin ever puts hockey first. Hamilton adds value to the B's side of the trade. Kessel might be the best player available at the time, but I think their franchise would be better off with Seguin/Hamilton/Knight. Especially when Kessel leaves as a UFA or gets his big raise.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by ClamRussel » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:51 pm

tantalum wrote:The media folks that actually cover the Bruins have called bullshit on that security guard stuff.

That said, he may have a touch of the O'Brien in him.
Perhaps the "hackers" planted that story as well.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=427197
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:55 pm

Island Nucklehead wrote:
darren wrote:
I realize that it's de rigueur around here to hate the Leaves and all their works, but this trade provides further evidence of what is already clear: Phil Kessel is better than Tyler Seguin. Hamilton might still end up tipping the scales but on the whole that trade is not as bad as it is made out to be.

Seguin makes 5.7m (in Sedin territory)... not sure how that is "cost controlled". Kessel's next contract won't be much higher than that, if at all. That's first line money and Seguin has yet to show he's a first line player. The Bruins aren't exactly loaded with scorers, yet Seguin still can't assert himself as part of the core? Kessel has proven to be a first liner, in spades. Look at the numbers... regular season, playoffs (4G against Boston, or 4x as many goals as Seguin managed in 1/3 the games).
Kessel was 8th in scoring last year. He was 6th the year before. His next contract could be for north of $8M a season. Getzlaf/Perry will be tossed around as comparison. If he signs for under $7.5M/per I'll be shocked.

Of course he's a better player than Tyler Seguin. He's also older. Over his first three seasons Kessel scored at a .41, .45 and .85 PPG pace. Seguin has done .30, .42 and .66 PPG. They could be very similar production-wise, if Seguin ever puts hockey first. Hamilton adds value to the B's side of the trade. Kessel might be the best player available at the time, but I think their franchise would be better off with Seguin/Hamilton/Knight. Especially when Kessel leaves as a UFA or gets his big raise.
Comparing Perry and Getzlaf to Kessel is laughable. Phil Kessel is a one dimensional scorer who doesn't engage physically....at least not effectively. Perry and Getzlaf do it all at both ends of the ice. Every player goes through slumps an scoring droughts, but Kessel has consistently had periods where he goes several games without a point, during those times he's not bringing anything to the ice. If he wants long term he will settle for a small raise, otherwise he goes short term, one or two years, and gets a deal similar to Semin's.....who, incidentally, is a comparable player IMHO.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Island Nucklehead » Sun Jul 07, 2013 6:20 pm

Meds wrote: Comparing Perry and Getzlaf to Kessel is laughable.
Not if your Kessel's agent. Kessel has produced more points than both those guys over the past couple seasons. He'll get paid, and it will be for more than Semin (who's never been a top-10 scorer).

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by dbr » Sun Jul 07, 2013 6:38 pm

Yeah Semin is a poor comparable. He's Russian which clearly makes many GMs cagey, he barely speaks the language and doesn't fit in well with many teammates, his own team walked away from him which I'm sure raises even more question marks for some.

Kessel is not the stereotypical "good Canadian (North American, whatever) kid" but he has been under colossal pressure in Toronto and has performed and produced more than adequately.

He runs hot and cold but when you end up putting 300 pucks on goal every year and scoring your fair share of those teams are going to line up - if he hits free agency he'll get more than Semin (who hit the market after an off year), more than Parise (who clearly didn't go to the highest bidder), more than Vanek.. etc.

Not necessarily a guy I'd want to build my team around but what the market values most, he does best.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds » Sun Jul 07, 2013 8:29 pm

Island Nucklehead wrote:
Meds wrote: Comparing Perry and Getzlaf to Kessel is laughable.
Not if your Kessel's agent. Kessel has produced more points than both those guys over the past couple seasons. He'll get paid, and it will be for more than Semin (who's never been a top-10 scorer).
LOL! Good point on the part about Kessel's agent. However, if I'm a GM negotiating with this agent I'm going to remind him of the following.....

Kessel is, at best, a 40 goal scorer. Semin's goal scoring totals stack up similarly.

Semin is a career 0.40 goals per game player, Kessel is a 0.36. Their ppg numbers are 0.88 ppg and 0.75 ppg respectively.

Semin is a career plus-79, Kessel is a minus-36.

Kessel is younger by 4 years, but they have played nearly the same number of games, 504 for Kessel and 513 for Semin.

But you sound like you're arguing that he's up there with Getzlaf and Perry. So let's look at that.

Getzlaf, 0.94 ppg. Perry, 0.81 ppg. They are plus-81, and plus-47 respectively.

Perry has won a Rocket Richard and a Hart Trophy. They both have Stanley Cup rings.

Kessel isn't in that class yet.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds » Sun Jul 07, 2013 8:33 pm

dbr wrote:Yeah Semin is a poor comparable. He's Russian which clearly makes many GMs cagey, he barely speaks the language and doesn't fit in well with many teammates, his own team walked away from him which I'm sure raises even more question marks for some.

Kessel is not the stereotypical "good Canadian (North American, whatever) kid" but he has been under colossal pressure in Toronto and has performed and produced more than adequately.

He runs hot and cold but when you end up putting 300 pucks on goal every year and scoring your fair share of those teams are going to line up - if he hits free agency he'll get more than Semin (who hit the market after an off year), more than Parise (who clearly didn't go to the highest bidder), more than Vanek.. etc.

Not necessarily a guy I'd want to build my team around but what the market values most, he does best.
Did you say more than Parise????? You're telling me Kessel is going to make close to as much as Crosby and Malkin? I mean, more than Parise is closing in on $8M. Nobody is giving Kessel that much.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by dbr » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:24 am

Sorry I should have said if he goes to the highest bidder (Parise didn't). Parise signed his deal under the old CBA and that's why Kessel might end up at a higher cap hit...


Here's what Zach gets on the first seven years of his deal: 12, 12, 11, 9, 9, 9, 9. Averages out to over $10m/year. Nobody is going to give Kessel that money, but he's going to get $8-9m year for a handful of years on the front of his deal (again if he takes the biggest offer) just like every other marquee player does, and there is no longer any way to tack on a bunch of low salary years at the end to drive the cap hit into that $6-7m territory that the marquee guys got in the last CBA.

In this CBA we are going to see high end first liners routinely end up in that $7.5-8.5m territory, second liners making $5m and the depth guys getting what's left.

Especially in this next offseason when the cap ceiling is going to explode and everyone will have money to play with. Guys like the Sedins, Thornton, Marleau, Bergeron etc are going to get locked up to extensions over the next year and there's going to be a huge pool of UFA money with at most a handful of first liners available.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by ORCA » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:37 am

Playing devil's advocate a bit here...

Re: Kessel vs Semin

+/- rating

Kessel has never played with top tier talent, ever, in his career.

Semin spent 5 seasons with Backstrom and Ovie, and has now moved on to Eric Staal.

I am not discounting Semin's offensive ability, but he has undeniably been helped to his totals by some of the best players (definitely 2, arguably 3 of the top 10) since the last lockout.

However, I think as a stand alone player, Kessel is the better "DIY" offensive asset.

IMO, his agent should be touting him similarily to Rick Nash. Though they play a different game, their numbers trend remarkably similar, and they succeed with "nobody to play with".

Nash is a career -55 and has NEVER topped 80 points. In 214 more NHL games than Kessel, he has 210 more points with a slightly higher points per game clip (.82 for Nash, .75 for Kessel). It is not unreasonable to assume that Kessel can and will pace at ~1.0 ppg over the next 3 seasons. Given a full season, he was on pace for ~90 this year, and was bang on at 82 for 2011-12.

I would wager that in 3 seasons, Kessel's numbers will be almost identical to Nash's (now), and possibly the edge given to Kessel with an already "better", and likely still to improve +/-.

Though I would assume his 're-up' (or subsequent FA Market experience) is heavily dependant on the first 40 games of next season, It is not unreasonable to think that Kessel will command somewhere in the 7.5M range if his numbers continue to improve.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by dbr » Mon Jul 08, 2013 10:44 am

Alex Burmistrov signed a two year deal with Ak Bars Kazan.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by tantalum » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:35 pm

Burmistrov...a skinny guy who is easily knocked off the puck. I realize he's Russian and this type of thing is always possible but it makes one wonder if Mason Raymond is having issues finding employment in the NHL this offseason. As much as I can see Raymond can move the play forward (then promptly curl back along the boards and lose the puck!) and plays well defensively I think nearly every GM will take a hit on those qualities and go for the guy that brings some size and grit to the wing. Especially in the bottom 6...and Raymond isn't a top 6 guy. That much is clear.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:45 pm

tantalum wrote:Burmistrov...a skinny guy who is easily knocked off the puck. I realize he's Russian and this type of thing is always possible but it makes one wonder if Mason Raymond is having issues finding employment in the NHL this offseason. As much as I can see Raymond can move the play forward (then promptly curl back along the boards and lose the puck!) and plays well defensively I think nearly every GM will take a hit on those qualities and go for the guy that brings some size and grit to the wing. Especially in the bottom 6...and Raymond isn't a top 6 guy. That much is clear.
Yeah, it sounds like the rumours of MayRay signing in Calgary were just that, Rumors. It's come out that there have been no discussions between Raymond's agent and the Flames.

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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Hockey Widow » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:11 pm

Rask close to an 8 year 56-60 million dollar extension. Cap 7-7.5. The cap recapture aside Luongo's contract isn't so bad now is it.

Imagine what CS will get in two years!
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Strangelove » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:58 pm

Mondi wrote: It's a terrible contract. Pretty much indisputably.
Only because they changed the rules mid-game.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by ukcanuck » Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:24 pm

Which really sucks and further lowers my opinion of the NHL....kinda like my opinion of meds understanding of pretty much everything not hockey related :look:

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