Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

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Island Nucklehead
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Island Nucklehead »

We're better than 65 points, probably in that Senators/Avalanche/Oilers 70's range (ie, where we finished last year).

Even if we improve the goal differential by +20, we're still a lottery team.
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Aaronp18
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Aaronp18 »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Lots of teams are inured way worse and manage to make a go of it due to organizational depth .Come up for some air brother
I'd actually like you to point out the "lots" of teams who were injured way worse and still made a go of it.

The following is a thread from HF in early April 2016 looking at man games lost:
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... ?t=2059145

Image
Image

So any team with more than 300 man games lost missed the playoffs. Not to mention Vancouver has one of the biggest circles in the bottom image which means they had one of the highest cumulative quality of players man games lost as well. Oh and doesn't TO's numbers have some perma-LTIR players that would skew the numbers even moreso?

Looking at this it's really no surprise the Canucks wound up where they did. And someone saying that if the Canucks can stay healthier this season they should make a good run at a playoff spot can actually be backed by some verifiable statistics.

The only team in the top 10 of man games lost that made the playoffs was Pittsburgh, it may help that they have the best player in the league on their team but I'm just spit-balling here!

What this also shows is how shitty Calgary really is, not a lot of man games and key injuries but they still finished near the bottom. Add in a few injuries (or contract holdouts) and they could easily finish near the basement!
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Blob Mckenzie »

Yes Aaron I get that they had a lot of man games lost to injury. That said I didn't see a ton a quality players being injured other than Edler or Hamhuis and Tanev for a short stint.I guess Sutters injuries hurt a bit due to the fact Horvat had to do too much defensive lifting , but that's where a lack of depth comes in. Losing a guy like Sbisa is almost a blessing in the fact that he's so useless so the team can have a look at other younger guys who may actually improve and be part of the team moving forward.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Aaronp18 wrote:I'd actually like you to point out the "lots" of teams who were injured way worse and still made a go of it.

The following is a thread from HF in early April 2016 looking at man games lost:
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... ?t=2059145

...

So any team with more than 300 man games lost missed the playoffs. Not to mention Vancouver has one of the biggest circles in the bottom image which means they had one of the highest cumulative quality of players man games lost as well. Oh and doesn't TO's numbers have some perma-LTIR players that would skew the numbers even moreso?

Looking at this it's really no surprise the Canucks wound up where they did. And someone saying that if the Canucks can stay healthier this season they should make a good run at a playoff spot can actually be backed by some verifiable statistics.

The only team in the top 10 of man games lost that made the playoffs was Pittsburgh, it may help that they have the best player in the league on their team but I'm just spit-balling here!

What this also shows is how shitty Calgary really is, not a lot of man games and key injuries but they still finished near the bottom. Add in a few injuries (or contract holdouts) and they could easily finish near the basement!
I really appreciate posts like this one.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Aaronp18 »

Blob Mckenzie wrote:Yes Aaron I get that they had a lot of man games lost to injury. That said I didn't see a ton a quality players being injured other than Edler or Hamhuis and Tanev for a short stint.I guess Sutters injuries hurt a bit due to the fact Horvat had to do too much defensive lifting , but that's where a lack of depth comes in. Losing a guy like Sbisa is almost a blessing in the fact that he's so useless so the team can have a look at other younger guys who may actually improve and be part of the team moving forward.
Blob, there were stints where Henrik, Sutter and Prust were out. So we had Horvat to play centre! It was the equivalent to assembling a team for a 11pm Sunday beer league game - "fuck, what spares can we find???"

No team in the league has that depth.

Take the top 2 d-men out of any lineup for extended stretches and most teams will falter.

Depth is necessary for sure but it only gets you so far.

We can only have so many contracts, and even harder to have decent waiver ineligible players. Sure saying we need more depth is easy but it's not as easy to attain. Even if we had a shit ton of draft picks eventually those players will all want NHL contracts and become waiver eligible.

Really, the only solution is to do whatever it takes to stay healthy and more importantly keep your core players healthy! Sometimes its just impossible.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Topper »

Blob Mckenzie wrote:Yes Aaron I get that they had a lot of man games lost to injury. That said I didn't see a ton a quality players being injured other than Edler or Hamhuis and Tanev for a short stint.I guess Sutters injuries hurt a bit due to the fact Horvat had to do too much defensive lifting , but that's where a lack of depth comes in. Losing a guy like Sbisa is almost a blessing in the fact that he's so useless so the team can have a look at other younger guys who may actually improve and be part of the team moving forward.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Mickey107 »

Mondi wrote:Injuries were undoubtedly part of the reason why the Canucks were bad last year. But, last year, like this year, they simply lack the requisite amount of goal scorers.

Best case scenario they get what...169 goals from their forwards and 34 from their D for a total of 203 (+/- 10) goals . A few more than last year, but still not enough.

Daniel 25
Eriksson 25
Hansen 18
Horvat 18
Bartchee 15
Sutter 12
Henrik 10
Rodin 10
Virtanen 10
Gaunce 5
Granlund 5
Burrows 5
Dorsett 5
Etem 4

Edler 10
Tanev 5
Hutton 6
Gudbranson 4
Larsson 5
Sbisa 5
Tryamkim 3
Pedan 1
Stecher 18 :)
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Rocky Dennis »

Aaronp18 wrote: Really, the only solution is to do whatever it takes to stay healthy and more importantly keep your core players healthy! Sometimes its just impossible.
I concur with ronning's ghost - nice informative couple of posts there.
I wonder if the team had any regrets or 2nd thoughts with the overhaul of the training/medical staff. From an outsider looking in, it seemed that injuries/health took a step backwards last year. Could just be coincidence.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Rocky Dennis »

Mondi wrote:Injuries were undoubtedly part of the reason why the Canucks were bad last year. But, last year, like this year, they simply lack the requisite amount of goal scorers.

Best case scenario they get what...169 goals from their forwards and 34 from their D for a total of 203 (+/- 10) goals . A few more than last year, but still not enough.

Daniel 25
Eriksson 25
Hansen 18 (lower: 12-15. Don't think he'll be with the Twins nearly as much this year)
Horvat 18
Bartchee 15 (higher: 18-20)
Sutter 12 (higher: 20)
Henrik 10
Rodin 10 (higher:15)
Virtanen 10
Gaunce 5
Granlund 5
Burrows 5
Dorsett 5
Etem 4

Edler 10
Tanev 5
Hutton 6 (higher:10)
Gudbranson 4
Larsson 5
Sbisa 5
Tryamkim 3
Pedan 1
I think those numbers are pretty fair but there are a few that I see a bit differently. Obviously these do not take injury into consideration but in the end I can see them improved enough in both GF and GA compared to last year; enough to get them to that competitive +/-10 differential. It's nowhere near cup quality but quite possibly hovering around the playoff cutoff.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Hockey Widow »

When Benning did his post mortem he said the number of injuries to key people exposed the lack of depth in the franchise and those two combined he felt were the critical factor in us not making the playoffs. The lack of depth part he took the blame saying that's on him for not ensuring we had the depth to be able to overcome the injuries.

That I think is the key in the overcoming of injuries part on any team. Good teams not only have good players they have sufficient depth to fill in when the inevitable injury bug hits. We did not have the depth last year.

We have more depth this year but we'll still be tested if we lose two of our top four or three of our four centres for stretches. But we may be better suited to sustain it this season. Injuries do matter. Depth separates the good teams from the pretenders. Even at full strength we were a pretender last year, a pretender who could have made the playoffs but I doubt went much further, although once in.......
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds »

Aaronp18 wrote:
Blob Mckenzie wrote:Yes Aaron I get that they had a lot of man games lost to injury. That said I didn't see a ton a quality players being injured other than Edler or Hamhuis and Tanev for a short stint.I guess Sutters injuries hurt a bit due to the fact Horvat had to do too much defensive lifting , but that's where a lack of depth comes in. Losing a guy like Sbisa is almost a blessing in the fact that he's so useless so the team can have a look at other younger guys who may actually improve and be part of the team moving forward.
Blob, there were stints where Henrik, Sutter and Prust were out. So we had Horvat to play centre! It was the equivalent to assembling a team for a 11pm Sunday beer league game - "fuck, what spares can we find???"
Hank missed 2 games in December and 4 games at the end of January. There are 2 others but I can't find which ones exactly.

We went almost the entire season without Sutter.

Injuries were a factor last year, but not a significant one. I think we all know what were staring down the barrel of last year when the puck dropped in October. At most I think we missed out on 8-10 points on the season. Which would only have served to land us in the 19th overall spot. So, outside the playoffs and with a shitty draft position.

If the injuries contributed to us landing in the top-5 draft positions then it was a blessing in disguise. We were not a playoff team barring some complete implosions in California, St. Louis, Chicago, and Dallas. It's better to have it written on the wall then sit in a place where ownership and management can try and find excuses.

And I can't even believe you mentioned Prust, he was another player who we were better without. :lol:
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by BingoTough »

Island Nucklehead wrote:Even if we improve the goal differential by +20, we're still a lottery team.
Ha! I was going to tell you to go back and checked the standings.

Then I did.

Ouch

-52 gd or thereabouts.

You win.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds »

Hockey Widow wrote:Even at full strength we were a pretender last year, a pretender who could have made the playoffs but I doubt went much further, although once in.......
That right there is why this team has not won a cup. And that way of thinking, even entertaining it for a split second, will ensure we never do.....I mean if management and ownership think that way.

Call a spade a spade. Take the appropriate steps.

2012 to 2016. Five straight seasons where our playoff performances were either abysmal, or didn't even happen. The team had a President's Trophy and then got bounced in 5. Then we won our division (although we were 7 and 17 points behind Anaheim and Chicago, respectively), and were swept by San Jose. Then we missed the playoffs. Then we made the playoffs in a season where we witnessed that necessary implosion in California, only to be ousted in 6 games by Calgary. Then last year we missed again.

The team got worse every year between April and October. But for some reason they were still being billed by management as a team that could get it done. The band-aid should have been ripped off after the failure of the Tortorella experiment. Any 33+ year old player who had a very good year should have been dealt at the deadline for a draft pick and/or a prospect. If nothing at the deadline then during the off-season. The vets you keep might hate it, but you will be doing a few of them a favour by not wasting another year of their waning careers chasing a dream that will never materialise. Had Benning come in and been given the green light to tear it down and build it up there is a chance that the Sedins, Burrows, and Hamhuis, would have been able to stay where they wanted to stay and see their Cup window open up again in the last year or two of their careers.....albeit in lesser roles. That's gone now. Barring some incredible development from Bo, Baertschi, Virtanen, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Hutton, and Markstrom/Demko, plus a stellar rookie and sophomore season from Boeser, there will be no Stanley Cup in Vancouver while the Sedins are here.
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Aaronp18 »

Mëds wrote: Injuries were a factor last year, but not a significant one.

And I can't even believe you mentioned Prust, he was another player who we were better without. :lol:
I disagree with how significant the injuries were. Do I think we were a legitimate threat in the playoffs if we stayed as healthy as Washington, not at all. I think we could've made the playoffs, and with a fairly young roster.

The point of the man games lost to key players is that it forces other players into roles they either can't play or aren't ready for yet.

Sure I brought up Prust, he played like shit because he was injured the whole year. It's pretty tough to be in and out of the lineup and expect to be up to NHL game speed. If he stayed healthy he would have stabilized our 4th line and added some much needed PK depth. Again, taking away some ice-time Horvat wasn't quite ready for.

We were the absolute worst team in the NHL for face-off win percentage, that alone Prust could've helped with as in the games he played for us he was 54% and last season he was up over 51% with MTL. Starting with the puck in our own end is one way to keep it out of the back of the net!
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Re: Around the league (signings, RFAs injuries)

Post by Meds »

Aaronp18 wrote:
Mëds wrote: Injuries were a factor last year, but not a significant one.

And I can't even believe you mentioned Prust, he was another player who we were better without. :lol:
I disagree with how significant the injuries were. Do I think we were a legitimate threat in the playoffs if we stayed as healthy as Washington, not at all. I think we could've made the playoffs, and with a fairly young roster.

The point of the man games lost to key players is that it forces other players into roles they either can't play or aren't ready for yet.

Sure I brought up Prust, he played like shit because he was injured the whole year. It's pretty tough to be in and out of the lineup and expect to be up to NHL game speed. If he stayed healthy he would have stabilized our 4th line and added some much needed PK depth. Again, taking away some ice-time Horvat wasn't quite ready for.

We were the absolute worst team in the NHL for face-off win percentage, that alone Prust could've helped with as in the games he played for us he was 54% and last season he was up over 51% with MTL. Starting with the puck in our own end is one way to keep it out of the back of the net!
Our goal differential tells me that even without the loss of a few of these players we would not have been a playoff team.

Let's say that Henrik doesn't miss 8 games, adds another 4 goals and contributes to another 6 goals by Dank. This is generous considering that's more than a 1 ppg pace, and 0.5 gpg pace for him, which is unheard of.

Let's also say that Sutter doesn't get hurt and gets to 20 goals playing RW with a healthy Hank and Dank.

We will give Edler a clean bill of health and up his total to 10 (tied for 2nd most in his career).

I imagine Vrbata and a few others might see a few more goals too because of line matching changes by the opponents, zone start changes, and overall puck possession factors. Add another 10 between the roster.

We just added 39 goals to our season total.....and finished with a minus-14 differential. That was with generous production numbers based on player scoring trends over the last few seasons. Congratulations Vancouver, you just finished first in the west among teams that MISSED the playoffs. I realize that this argument for standings placement is based on goal differential, but with only two exceptions in the East (Detroit and Philly) all of the playoff teams were positive in that department.

Prust took 11 face-offs for us in 35 games. With Montreal, the year before, he took 31 face-offs in 82 games. He was taking less than 0.5 attempts per game played.

There's no denying his percentage, but hey Gabriel Dumont won 85% of his 13 face-off attempts through 3 games.....
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