Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby Fred » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:26 am

Is it the GM's that are waiting or players/agents who know that a new deal now before the new CBA will be subject to the roll back ? ie get less
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby FAN » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:23 am

Fred wrote:Is it the GM's that are waiting or players/agents who know that a new deal now before the new CBA will be subject to the roll back ? ie get less

We're talking about Luongo here though. He's already signed so regardless of what happens with the CBA, I'm sure Luongo wants to know where he's going to play next year sooner rather than later. As for the GMs, my point is that they will know what the rollback will likely be before a new CBA ratified so if salary rollback is a factor in the trade negotiations, GMs can wait and see what the rollback will be and then made the deal. No need to wait for the new CBA to be ratified though.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby dbr » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:48 am

FAN wrote:
Fred wrote:Is it the GM's that are waiting or players/agents who know that a new deal now before the new CBA will be subject to the roll back ? ie get less

We're talking about Luongo here though. He's already signed so regardless of what happens with the CBA, I'm sure Luongo wants to know where he's going to play next year sooner rather than later. As for the GMs, my point is that they will know what the rollback will likely be before a new CBA ratified so if salary rollback is a factor in the trade negotiations, GMs can wait and see what the rollback will be and then made the deal. No need to wait for the new CBA to be ratified though.


No offense, but isn't that just pointless semantics? Unless I am misreading your posts it seems like you're saying that GMs don't have to wait for the next CBA to know what their situation will be in that environment, instead they can just wait until it is all but completed and then move forward..

At any rate, I would suggest that GMs are unlikely to be making deals with one another in the absence of a collective bargaining agreement, much less that the league would actually approve them - and given the brinksmanship that seems to be going on here I'd guess we will almost certainly see time time with no effective CBA in place.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby mnaslund » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:20 pm

I think Luo has next to no value on the market and the most we can hope to fetch for him is a prospect and 3rd line nhl player. I would be happy with that return giving his contract and the fact our GM has zero leverage.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby nuckster » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:58 pm

mnaslund wrote:I think Luo has next to no value on the market and the most we can hope to fetch for him is a prospect and 3rd line nhl player. I would be happy with that return giving his contract and the fact our GM has zero leverage.


Are you for real?? I would say 'welcome to the board', but I think your statement has 'troll-like' qualities and you're probably either a long-timer from here who's attempting to have some fun, or a calpucker with his head up his ass.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby FAN » Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:48 pm

dbr wrote:No offense, but isn't that just pointless semantics? Unless I am misreading your posts it seems like you're saying that GMs don't have to wait for the next CBA to know what their situation will be in that environment, instead they can just wait until it is all but completed and then move forward..

I'm not sure if you have actually been following along, a poster asked the question whether there was a chance that Luongo would be traded before the new CBA was written up. I responded by saying that I think there's a great chance Luongo gets traded before the new CBA is written up, especially if there is significant salary roll-back in the new CBA. I was asked to elaborate and I elaborated on the salary roll back part (to me salary rollback is just a bonus in any deal for Luongo). Now, there are obviously risks to trading for Luongo before the new CBA is ratified. The new CBA might mandate that players cap hit or a portion of it will still take up a team's cap hit even if the player retires and there is no grandfather clause. But how likely is that? I don't think that's likely.

So with that in mind, I think that teams that are reportedly interested in Luongo are generally fine with Luongo's cap hit and any salary rollback will only make Luongo more attractive. I'm not in the room, but in negotiations, you can know pretty early some of the numbers you're working with. Hypothetical example: NHL asks for 24% salary rollback, NHLPA counters with 10% salary rollback. NHL asks for players to take up 43% of revenue, NHLPA counters with 50%. Note those are just hypothetical examples but the point is that it's possible to know where the guideposts are. More importantly, as it pertains to Luongo, I feel that teams that are interested in Luongo now are not too worried about what the new CBA will look like. A lower cap will not affect Florida and all Tallon has to figure out is if he has the budget to take on Luongos' salary. Toronto will not care about salary rollback as much as whether Luongo's cap hit would be a problem, especially if the cap will not continue to rise. But Luongo's cap hit is very manageable so I don't think there's going to be an issue there. I think a GM might wait and see if there's going to be anything crazy in the next CBA but it doesn't take long to figure out whether trading for Luongo would still be attractive.

Is Gillis waiting for to see if the new CBA will result in new interested parties or a team who might be willing to step up their offer depending on how the new cba goes? It's possible, but I don't think that's the case and that's my thinking right now.

dbr wrote:At any rate, I would suggest that GMs are unlikely to be making deals with one another in the absence of a collective bargaining agreement, much less that the league would actually approve them - and given the brinksmanship that seems to be going on here I'd guess we will almost certainly see time time with no effective CBA in place

I disagree with your suggestion. The current CBA is set to expire but it hasn't expired yet so it's business as usual as far as trades and contract negotiations go and there's absolutely no reason why the league won't approve a reasonable hockey trade. We've seen teams signing players to long-term contracts before the new CBA so it's not like GMs are scared of taking on long-term contracts before the new CBA.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby dbr » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:12 pm

Fair enough.

I have no sense of how the next CBA is going to differ from the current one but I'd say that for example if the cap ceiling is once again linked to league wide revenue and the cap floor is say 90% of the cap ceiling, a team like Florida might balk at being put in a position to be paying $1.4m a year over the cap floor.

If that's all off the table, then I'd agree that not much is going to change. And yes a rollback or a scenario in which the cap ceiling won't inflate like it has these past few years certainly makes Luongo's contract look better rather than worse.

Ultimately to me it seems like nobody is going to blink any time soon so it's more likely that a new CBA creates another potential suitor or two than anything and it shakes enough pieces loose that a deal can happen. Right now it looks like that's not even on the horizon (although as Gillis keeps saying on the radio it can all change with one phone call.. apparently).
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby FAN » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:07 am

dbr wrote:I have no sense of how the next CBA is going to differ from the current one but I'd say that for example if the cap ceiling is once again linked to league wide revenue and the cap floor is say 90% of the cap ceiling, a team like Florida might balk at being put in a position to be paying $1.4m a year over the cap floor.

Florida were actually millions over the cap floor last season and if the cap floor is going to be like 90% of the cap ceiling as in your example, the Panthers will likely NEED to add salary depending on how the Kulikov negotiations go. However, there is a belief that the Panthers have an internal budget and Luongo's contract being higher in actual dollars than his cap hit for several years to come might not be all that attractive.

dbr wrote:And yes a rollback or a scenario in which the cap ceiling won't inflate like it has these past few years certainly makes Luongo's contract look better rather than worse.

I'm not sure if you having things right here dbr. If the cap ceiling won't go up like it has in the past, it actually doesn't make Luongo's contract look better and might actually make it look worse.

dbr wrote:Ultimately to me it seems like nobody is going to blink any time soon so it's more likely that a new CBA creates another potential suitor or two than anything and it shakes enough pieces loose that a deal can happen. Right now it looks like that's not even on the horizon (although as Gillis keeps saying on the radio it can all change with one phone call.. apparently).

I agree. It does seem like Luongo trade talks have heated up at all. Regardless, so you don't think Luongo will go to one of the teams that has already shown serious interest in acquiring Luongo? Personally, I can't see how the next CBA will do much in the way of creating another potential suitor. There will have to be a significant salary rollback and or a provision that allows teams to buyout players and not have it count as much under the cap or something like that. I just don't see too many teams interested in acquiring Luongo and waiting to see if the new CBA makes Luongo's contract affordable. I can see there being a team that is seriously interested in Luongo but really can't afford it and area really hoping that the new CBA will help them out, but I just don't know...
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby mnaslund » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:38 am

Welcome to the boards I guess??? and I though hf was bad
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To: mnaslund

"The following is a warning which has been issued to you by an administrator or moderator of this site.If that is your opinion..that's fine, however please go back and defend your positoon. Or pm myself back, because that does have troll written all over it"

Not sure why its so hard for some of us canucks fans to understand why what I said before was true??? Even though we all myself included dont want to hear it.

1. Lou wants out, canucks want to move him- everyone knows this
2. Lou decides what team he goes to, not our GM
3. For the sake of the dressing room gillis has to move him beforfore the season starts, saying otherwise is just posturing
4. Lou's contract while not so bad right now, will really hurt aprox 5 years from now

And we expect top end talent in return???? your the trolls if you ask me
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby rats19 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:44 am

mnaslund wrote:Welcome to the boards I guess??? and I though hf was bad
Board warning issued
Sent: Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:39 pm
From: rats19
To: mnaslund

"The following is a warning which has been issued to you by an administrator or moderator of this site.If that is your opinion..that's fine, however please go back and defend your position. Or pm myself back, because that does have troll written all over it"

Not sure why its so hard for some of us canucks fans to understand why what I said before was true??? Even though we all myself included dont want to hear it.

1. Lou wants out, canucks want to move him- everyone knows this
2. Lou decides what team he goes to, not our GM
3. For the sake of the dressing room gillis has to move him beforfore the season starts, saying otherwise is just posturing
4. Lou's contract while not so bad right now, will really hurt aprox 5 years from now

And we expect top end talent in return???? your the trolls if you ask me


Ok you have defended yourself and that is just fine. good job..the part about my warning and the "your the trolls" not so much....

If you dont understand the position that was taken by the poster who replied and them myself I am sorry about that. But 99.9% of the time a 1st post of that nature comes from other than canuck fans...:)
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby mnaslund » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:53 am

Sorry for being so defensive, I just think alot of people are going to be surprised by the return we get for him.....
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby rats19 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:56 am

mnaslund wrote:Sorry for being so defensive, I just think alot of people are going to be surprised by the return we get for him.....


thats fair enough.....I hope you are wrong but thats just opinion on my part...welcome aboard and don t get too defensive if some seem sensative over some issues...we do bleed blue...glass half full for the most part

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby dbr » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:44 am

FAN wrote:
dbr wrote:And yes a rollback or a scenario in which the cap ceiling won't inflate like it has these past few years certainly makes Luongo's contract look better rather than worse.

I'm not sure if you having things right here dbr. If the cap ceiling won't go up like it has in the past, it actually doesn't make Luongo's contract look better and might actually make it look worse.


Well, the cap circumvention aspect of Luongo's deal looks more attractive in an environment where you can't simply create more cap space by waiting a year.

If you think he's going to be worth less than his $5.3m cap hit over most of the rest of his career then I suppose it's small consolation that at least his cap hit isn't $6.7m - but it's probably pretty safe to say any GM who thinks that won't be involved in trade discussions for this player.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby vic » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:48 am

mnaslund wrote:1. Lou wants out, canucks want to move him- everyone knows this


not gonna touch that one

mnaslund wrote:2. Lou decides what team he goes to, not our GM


It's a bit of both - Mike Gillis does NOT HAVE TO TRADE HIM. He can park him the press box or in the minors if he chooses. Lou has a No Trade Clause, not a No Movement Clause. If #1 is true and Lou does want out then I'm sure he'd be willing to open up the list of teams in order to be moved. If all he's going to get us is useless picks or b-grade prospects, he would have been traded by now.

mnaslund wrote:3. For the sake of the dressing room gillis has to move him beforfore the season starts, saying otherwise is just posturing


You have access to the Canucks' dressing room? Wow, that must be fun! What else can you tell us about all the friendships and rivalries in that room?

mnaslund wrote:4. Lou's contract while not so bad right now, will really hurt aprox 5 years from now


How will it hurt 5 years from now? If anything, the out-clauses worked out in the deal will help the team 5-years from now...here they are:

http://www.faceoff.com/story.html?id=a4 ... 328be5e1d1
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Postby Benjo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:09 am

Lu's contract will be beautiful in 5 years for a team like the Panthers. The fifth year is the last season where his salary is higher than his cap hit. After that they start paying out 3.3, 1.6 then a couple of 1.0 million for a 5.3 million cap hit contract which is perfect for Florida.
Until then he is being paid 6.7m for a 5.3 cap hit which is more than fair for a top 10 goalie in his prime.
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