Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by RoyalDude » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:31 pm

And I fully expect Edmonton to end up with one of those top 6 players and with how the stars have been aligning for them lately, I expect them to walk out of the draft with one of the consensus top 4 in McKinnon, Jones, Barkov, Drouin.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Fred » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:59 pm

RoyalDude wrote:IMO, I would be happy just trading Luongo for a 2013 1st round pick from whatever team, like what the Capitals did by offing Varlamov to the Avalanche. Didn't the Capitals get Filip Forsberg with the Lanche pick? I'd much prefer that than getting the fucking rumored crumbs out that dismal organization the Leaves. I see no long term benefit in the players being suggested from Toronto, how the fuck does Bozak, Franson, Kadri, Colbourne benefit this team going forward? I would rather Gillis be a player with a decent hand going into the 2013 Draft.

Spot on. But I think the catch maybe to get one of the top 6 picks you have to pretty well send Luongo to a know hope team and he does have a No Trade clause. It would be nice to have the Columbus pick for instance but I can't see Luongo agreeing to that. Maybe BB is not kidding and we should take him seriously when he says he will stick with his current team. If this season goes ahead there's only 24 home games for the fans to suck up and the reward is preetty significant come the draft. Man I like that Druoin kid. I watched him on TV in Nova Scotia quite a bit. He doesn't have the edge McKinnon has to his game but he can sure dangle.

I'm changing my view of Colborne I have to say, he's big but ... Even BB didn't speak glowingly of him in a recent interview and lets be honest BB is a bluster first sort of guy sio if he can't find a lot of good things to say. The kid has skill but ...
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by RoyalDude » Tue Jan 01, 2013 5:03 pm

Fred wrote:
RoyalDude wrote:IMO, I would be happy just trading Luongo for a 2013 1st round pick from whatever team, like what the Capitals did by offing Varlamov to the Avalanche. Didn't the Capitals get Filip Forsberg with the Lanche pick? I'd much prefer that than getting the fucking rumored crumbs out that dismal organization the Leaves. I see no long term benefit in the players being suggested from Toronto, how the fuck does Bozak, Franson, Kadri, Colbourne benefit this team going forward? I would rather Gillis be a player with a decent hand going into the 2013 Draft.

Spot on. But I think the catch maybe to get one of the top 6 picks you have to pretty well send Luongo to a know hope team and he does have a No Trade clause. It would be nice to have the Columbus pick for instance but I can't see Luongo agreeing to that. Maybe BB is not kidding and we should take him seriously when he says he will stick with his current team. If this season goes ahead there's only 24 home games for the fans to suck up and the reward is preetty significant come the draft. Man I like that Druoin kid. I watched him on TV in Nova Scotia quite a bit. He doesn't have the edge McKinnon has to his game but he can sure dangle.

I'm changing my view of Colborne I have to say, he's big but ... Even BB didn't speak glowingly of him in a recent interview and lets be honest BB is a bluster first sort of guy sio if he can't find a lot of good things to say. The kid has skill but ...
Don't get to obsessed with size, Fred. For every Schroeder there is an Eberle or a Granlund. You just have to pick the right shrimp. I can't believe you are actually considering Colborne??? From your recent babblings, my respect for your hockey prospect knowledge has completely nose dived.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Fred » Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:35 pm

Look 12 months ago I'd have said the same but are you listening. Just like BB is having a tough time finding good things to say about Colbourne, MG is finding tough sledding trying to find good things to say about Schroeder in recent interviews and lets face it he was benched in the AHL ...not a good sign IMO. It's not as you said all about size but even you have to admit that the Vcr brains trust has had a bias towards size in the last couple of years. And in this case it's not actually a bad tack to take. At the bottom end of the draft order there's not a lot of RNH type skill around. Sure we'd all like RNH or a McKinnon, Drouin pick to be there ...but reality tells me and it should you to you as well we have to some how build a competitive team without any of those type guys. So as MG said we want to be bigger stronger faster and that's what he/they are doing...following that tack ! Will a Schroeder or a jockey named Jarnkrok type fit in, maybe but I don't see it....repeat after me ......bigger younger faster.

Detroit is NOT overloaded with prospects it's a fantasy repeated over and over by media & fans....like sheep. They had a couple of lucky picks years ago but since then have wasted a lot of picks. Most of it was covered up pre Cap days by buying players...no more. I'm going to be interested to see how they do without Lidstrom playing 25 minutes a game.

Frankly the team I have commented on for a few seasons now is Florida, they're loaded with prospects IMO.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/8 ... prospects/
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Blob Mckenzie » Tue Jan 01, 2013 7:24 pm

Fred wrote:
Detroit is NOT overloaded with prospects it's a fantasy repeated over and over by media & fans....like sheep. They had a couple of lucky picks years ago but since then have wasted a lot of picks. Most of it was covered up pre Cap days by buying players...no more. I'm going to be interested to see how they do without Lidstrom playing 25 minutes a game.
Detroit was the BEST drafting team from about 89 - 2006 bar none and it isn't even close. Since then, sure they don't have a ton in their pipeline but they aren't exactly devoid of talent either. A couple of lucky picks years ago ? Wake up man . They built their nucleus with superb drafting and supplemented their team with a few high priced UFA.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/team ... 05492.html
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Meds » Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:22 pm

RoyalDude wrote:Don't get to obsessed with size, Fred. For every Schroeder there is an Eberle or a Granlund. You just have to pick the right shrimp.
Ummmm.....

My respect for your prospect and player analysis capabilities just nose-dived.....not that it was a helluvalot, but still.

For ever Eberle or Granlund there are probably 2 or 3 Schroeders would be more accurate.

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Fred » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:00 am

Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Fred wrote:
Detroit is NOT overloaded with prospects it's a fantasy repeated over and over by media & fans....like sheep. They had a couple of lucky picks years ago but since then have wasted a lot of picks. Most of it was covered up pre Cap days by buying players...no more. I'm going to be interested to see how they do without Lidstrom playing 25 minutes a game.
Detroit was the BEST drafting team from about 89 - 2006 bar none and it isn't even close. Since then, sure they don't have a ton in their pipeline but they aren't exactly devoid of talent either. A couple of lucky picks years ago ? Wake up man . They built their nucleus with superb drafting and supplemented their team with a few high priced UFA.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/team ... 05492.html

Blob I don't believe that. If you study there picks you'll see for every lucky late pick there was 5 terrible picks made ahead of the lucky ones. No one wastes picks like Detroit did. If the lucky picks were so sure fire star players they don't leave them and allow every other team take a swing at them. Look at their draft in 1994 they took Tomes Holstrum in the 10th round the 9 picks before him I don't believe one played in the NHL. In 1989 they took Lidstrom in the third round but took Sillinger and Boughner in rounds 1 & 2 both destined for the HHOF. Look at the names of the no name players Detroit has drafted. Plus if they were so good how come with the same scouts they're now drawing a blanks. We'll have to disagree on this. Read the names of the picks it's like a who's who of poor drafting
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by dbr » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:23 am

I don't understand how a team can get raked over the coals for getting a good-to-great player in the late rounds just because they did not pick them earlier?

Draft picks should be used to take the best players yes, but the marketplace should also be taken into account. You want to pick players as late as they can without losing them to another team; that way you can use your earlier picks on other players who are better known and could also pan out to be NHL players.

You don't identify the best player and go wayyyy off the board to take them with your earliest pick, that deprives you of a shot at other better known prospects (who perhaps even have a better shot at panning out as NHLers.. even if they don't have high ceilings).. if you want the highest quality draft class you take players just ahead of where you figure they're going to go, and you make the best use of the picks that frees up.

Sure the Wings didn't pick many NHLers with the picks they used before selecting Franzen, Zetterberg and Datsyuk but that was hardly a foregone conclusion when those other players were selected; just because they did not happen to does not mean that the picks they used to select three elite players are any less worth of praise.

(Also, keep in mind they had just one first rounder, two seconds and two thirds - one of which was used to select Franzen - in those drafts so it's not like they whiffed on any easy picks.)

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Reefer2 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:24 am

I think you also take late round picks (5+) on players who may not come over or could be late bloomers. I think a lot of Russian players are chosen in the later rounds because the chance of them coming over to play 3rd or 4th line is low but there still is a chance. Also other minor leagues may not be the same as CHL so how well will a player from Russia/Sweden/Cz league be in the NHL if they don't spend time in the CHL first.

Not saying they won't make it in the NHL but your later round draft picks are for the "what if" players. And for every great player chosen late round there are thousand who don't even make it to training camp.

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Fred » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:24 pm

dbr wrote:I don't understand how a team can get raked over the coals for getting a good-to-great player in the late rounds just because they did not pick them earlier?

Draft picks should be used to take the best players yes, but the marketplace should also be taken into account. You want to pick players as late as they can without losing them to another team; that way you can use your earlier picks on other players who are better known and could also pan out to be NHL players.

You don't identify the best player and go wayyyy off the board to take them with your earliest pick, that deprives you of a shot at other better known prospects (who perhaps even have a better shot at panning out as NHLers.. even if they don't have high ceilings).. if you want the highest quality draft class you take players just ahead of where you figure they're going to go, and you make the best use of the picks that frees up.

Sure the Wings didn't pick many NHLers with the picks they used before selecting Franzen, Zetterberg and Datsyuk but that was hardly a foregone conclusion when those other players were selected; just because they did not happen to does not mean that the picks they used to select three elite players are any less worth of praise.

(Also, keep in mind they had just one first rounder, two seconds and two thirds - one of which was used to select Franzen - in those drafts so it's not like they whiffed on any easy picks.)

I'm not trying to make light of the players that Detroit picked up. Clearly great players. But the scouting has praise heaped upon it when IMO it shouldn't. Their selection of players chosen with high picks clearly shows their inability to make good choices. The players they picked up at the end of the draft worked out very well, a large percentage of the early picks were wasted of picks. No one tries to screw up first round selection be they Detroit or Dallas.

The suggestion has been that Vcr is lousy and Detroit can walk on water and that just is not so. In recent years the Detroit brains trust has not fared well and to my knowledge it's the same brains trust as they had years ago. Kindle a first round pick, "developed through their system" spends too many nights in the press box. Smith drafted 5 years ago is another D that has as yet failed to crack the line up consistently. He's 23, Kindle is 25. Now they're signing FA to compensate such as Ian White. You wanna heap praise on their scouts go ahead, IMO they're average
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by dbr » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:11 pm

Fred I would bet that if you took that period Blob mentioned and subtracted all of the high end picks (say, top three of each draft) the Red Wings aggregated picks would compare favorably to just about anyone in the league. If you take into account their highest (non-excluded, in this comparison, since they took Primeau at 3) pick was at 10 and they had just a couple under 20 they'd compare very well indeed.

Here are the guys picked in that range with over 100 games played who were not taken with a gimme pick.

Lidstrom, Federov, Kozlov, Sillinger, Knuble, Holmstrom, Dallas Drake (all of those guys over 1000 GP), Martin Lapointe, Mathieu Dandenault, Darren McCarty, Jason York, Chris Osgood, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Dan McGillis, Bob Boughner, Anders Eriksson, Jamie Pushor (all of those guys over 500 GP), Franzen, Kronwall, Vladimir Konstantinov, Filppula, Kopecky, Hudler, Fleischmann, Jiri Fischer, Kyle Quincey, Jonathan Ericsson, Howard, Max Kuznetsov, Stewart Malgunas, Derek Meech, John Jakopin, and Yuri Butsayev played 99 games.

That's a pretty damned good haul over 15 years, guys like Sillinger and Knuble and Boughner may not be impressive to you but they were career NHLers who contributed to the Wings success on the ice and via trade.

One of those guys taken inside the top ten (Sillinger at 10), one more taken inside the top 20 (Martin Lapointe at 11). I don't think there's any doubt that the Wings were a strong drafting team, especially given their lack of high end selections.

Maybe they don't deserve all the praise they've gotten over the years but that doesn't mean they don't deserve praise at all.

By way of comparison, you know how long the list of players is that the Canucks drafted over the same period using the same criteria? 18 players, less than half as many.

Anyway.. not much point going around and around on it I guess.

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Fred » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:35 pm

No point at all, it's some thing like talking about Stanley Cup appearances for TO..... long long ago. Most of the guys mentioned are pulling down a pension now :lol:

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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Blob Mckenzie » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:35 pm

Who gives a rats ass what round the players were taken in ? The fact of the matter is my point stands. Detroit was far and away the best drafting team from the late 80's ( you can probably take it back to the early 80's if you want to) until 5 years ago. They have drafted way more quality NHL players than any team during that time period. Even if the Wings haven't drafted as well the past 5 or 6 years they still have more NHL propects than Vancouver. BTW Brendan Smith will be a top 4 D-man as early as this year. He's a very nice young player.

I think Fred just loves to argue sometimes.

BTW I have never said Vancouver is a lousy drafting team. They are around middle of the pack......Detroit however has been elite.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Fred » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:00 pm

Blob Mckenzie wrote:Who gives a rats ass what round the players were taken in ? The fact of the matter is my point stands. Detroit was far and away the best drafting team from the late 80's ( you can probably take it back to the early 80's if you want to) until 5 years ago. They have drafted way more quality NHL players than any team during that time period.

I think Fred just loves to argue sometimes.
No Blob that's not the concept at all. The reason that by FAR the most players in the draft come form the first round is valid...I hope you're not suggesting other wise. You keep screwing up first round picks and guess what it doesn't look good on your resume and after all that's what we're debating here, this magical Detroit scouting machine.
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Re: Luongo will Waive NTC If Asked To

Post by Topper » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:27 pm

I don't have the time to do it right now, but you can download the draft histories for each team from hockeyDB into a spreadsheet and use the draft position, draft round and number of NHL games played to come up with a ranking. Combine draft position and draft round to get a multiplier. Say draft position 1-10 = 1, 11-20 = 2. 21-30 = 3 ...... This would weight lower picks, ie higher risk picks, higher than top of the heap lower risk picks. Remember you are trying to rank drafting and scouting, not the players themselves.

So you'd have for each team's draft year a list of Player Name, # of NHL Games Played, Draft Position Multiplier and a Ranking (# of NHL Games Played X Draft Position Multiplier).

Total the ranking for each teams draft years to get a Gross Ranking for the Team.

In order to compensate for teams that have traded away picks vs teams that have accumulated picks, divide the Gross Ranking for the Team by the total # of picks in the draft (probably need to weight this factor as well as two 1st round picks are likely worth more than three 4th round picks).

Off the top of my head, I'd say this would give a good number for ranking teams scouting/drafting histories. It may not allow direct team to team comparisons but I suspect there would be natural data breaks that would group teams into good, mediocre and poor.

For team to team direct comparison, the multiplier would have to be refined by an analysis of # of players per ranking group that make the NHL and the average number of games played by players in each ranking group.

I glanced through the data recently and it is easy to agree with Fred that some of Detroit's late round gems skew peoples impression of their drafting as they have some early round busts. Also from my quick perusal, Vancouver is not stellar, but also not that bad, more middling to upper mid pack, but that is just from a glance at the data.

A large factor skewing Vancouver's recent draft history is the dead guy in the '05 draft. Vancouver had an excellent draft in 2004 with Schneider #26, Edler #91, Mike Brown #151, Hansen #287.

EDIT: there are some things that will skew these numbers, some teams draft for position and will for example take a higher risk defender over a lower risk forward because they feel they have depth at forward and need defenders. Goaltenders, who typically take longer to go from minors to starters will also skew the data (see Vancouver's Schneider).
Last edited by Topper on Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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