2012 UFAs

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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Potatoe1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:13 am

herb wrote:Ryan Suter's going to get like $10M/season. The bidding war for him is going to be absolutely retarded.



I agree.

That said in a market where guys like Wideman and Garrison could get upwards of 6 mill, you have to wonder if it isn't better value to go all in on a true no1 like Suter.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Jovocop » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:14 am

Eddy Punch Clock wrote:
Jovocop wrote:Semin can no doubt score goals but it would be nice to add more muscles to the top-six.


Are you kidding me? Haven't you seen the guy fight? Dude can lay down one mean bitch slapping when he's pissed. :D

The first name that jumped out at me on that list was Jason Garrison.... because you can never have too many ex-Panthers on your team. :) Local kid, probably wont cost an arm and a leg, decent size and just the right skill set for the Canucks. Ehrhoff light if you will.


I thought we have one in Gragnani... LOL...
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Eddy Punch Clock » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:56 am

Jovocop wrote:
Eddy Punch Clock wrote:
Jovocop wrote:Semin can no doubt score goals but it would be nice to add more muscles to the top-six.


Are you kidding me? Haven't you seen the guy fight? Dude can lay down one mean bitch slapping when he's pissed. :D

The first name that jumped out at me on that list was Jason Garrison.... because you can never have too many ex-Panthers on your team. :) Local kid, probably wont cost an arm and a leg, decent size and just the right skill set for the Canucks. Ehrhoff light if you will.


I thought we have one in Gragnani... LOL...


He probably thinks Gragnani is just a bit too young to take on that role just yet. Gillis referred to him as 23 years old today in the presser.

Gragnani is 25.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby herb » Tue Apr 24, 2012 12:15 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:That said in a market where guys like Wideman and Garrison could get upwards of 6 mill, you have to wonder if it isn't better value to go all in on a true no1 like Suter.


This I 100% agree with.

I know about the comments Ryan Suter has made about not playing in Canada in the past, but if he is at all interested in Vancouver GMMG needs to take a serious run at him. Players like Suter almost never make it to free agency.

Guys like Bieksa, Hamhuis and Wideman are guys you need to have, but what we need is a Henrik Sedin on defence who can control the tempo and play of our defense.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Zamboni Driver » Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:09 pm

I usually like your posts Meds, very sensible. 8-)
But not this one. :(

I don't want to see Parise or Suter/Weber if it breaks the Canucks salary structure.

I give top marks to GMMG for setting the scale, and not overpaying crazy money for guys that then go bust
(hello Scott Gomez, Wade Redden, Ville Leino )

Our top line Sedins (Hart, Ross, etc) are better than point a game for 3 seasons and make $6.1 mil
Kesler (Selke, ~30 goal average past 3 years) makes $5 mil
Hamhuis - 37 points & + 29 = $4.6 mil
Bieksa - 44 points and +12 = $4.7 mil

So where does that put Suter? (46 points & +15) = somewhere around $5 or at most $5.5

Parise had 69 points and a -5 in 82 games for the year. Would he be the same player as the 2009-10 guy who scored 38 goals & 82 points? Or the 69 & -5 like this year? He should be about $5.5 or max $6 mil as a Canuck.

However I have no doubt that Suter will top $6 mil and Parise will top $7 mil.

So suppose we get Parise for $7 mil, and he turns in another 30 goal 70 point season and a poor +/-
Burrows next year has a 30 goal, maybe 60 point season and in the plus 20's == So what kind of payout does he get after busting his ass for 2 yeaars for $2 mil?

I'd much rather see them try perhaps to get UFAs a 3rd line center, 2nd line winger or a 4th/5th D-man for around $3 mil, and continue to develop our own players

Meds wrote:If Vigneault is gone then I would go after the following.....(in no particular order)

Zach Parise. Ryan Suter.

On the way out would be Luongo, Raymond, Edler, Pahlsson or Malhotra, Rome, and Salo. Total free space of $16.3M(ish).

If Salo wants one more kick at the can, and GMMG can make some good changes and still maintain a contender, then I would advocate for bringing Salo back at $1.25M or less to play the #6 spot and fill in at 4 and 5 when needed. He still makes good plays, he's smart, still has the cannon, he just can't play the big minutes and he's a step (or two) slower.

Suter-Bieksa
Hamhuis-Ballard
O'Brien-Salo

$21.8M on the blueline assuming $6M for Suter, and $1.25M each for O'Brien and Salo.

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Parise-Kesler-Booth
Higgins-Lapierre-Hansen
Weise-Pahlsson/Manny-Kassian

$38.5M in the top 12 assuming $6.5 for Parise, and a token raise to Weise bringing him to $870K.

Schneider
Backup

$5.5M in the crease assuming Schneider gets $3.75M on a short-term (2-3 years) deal and allowing up to $1.5M for a backup.

That is $65.8M in salary, we spent $64.28 this year. It leaves no wiggle room and it screws a team when injuries hit. But I would imagine that the cap is going to go up again this year by a couple percentage points. :roll:

There is also the fact that anyone taking some of our players will have to give back salary in return, so that of course shoots my whole fantasy team right out of the sky. :roll:
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby dbr » Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:33 pm

Zamboni Driver wrote:I don't want to see Parise or Suter/Weber if it breaks the Canucks salary structure.

I give top marks to GMMG for setting the scale, and not overpaying crazy money for guys that then go bust
(hello Scott Gomez, Wade Redden, Ville Leino )


Salary structure is all well and good when your team is already spending at or around its budget, or when you are talking about paying the money you give your bona fide All Stars for guys who might not play on your second line or second pairing.

But here's a little food for thought: when the Sedins signed their contract extensions they were given just a shade over 9.3% of the $56.8m cap ceiling for the next season.

That same 9.3% is now $6.5m, so you could easily hand out that kind of money (especially for star players like Parise or Suter - who you hugely underrate with your points-centric argument - when they are entering the prime of their careers) to players who you expect to form the core of this team going forward.

Furthermore Mike Gillis has shown that he is willing to be flexible in salary structure if it means bringing in a piece of the puzzle that helps this team - certainly Mats Sundin wasn't offered a deal indicating that he was the best and most valued player on the Canucks that year, likewise trading for David Booth was not a shot at Alex Burrows, etc.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Jovocop » Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:40 pm

dbr wrote:
Zamboni Driver wrote:I don't want to see Parise or Suter/Weber if it breaks the Canucks salary structure.

I give top marks to GMMG for setting the scale, and not overpaying crazy money for guys that then go bust
(hello Scott Gomez, Wade Redden, Ville Leino )


Salary structure is all well and good when your team is already spending at or around its budget, or when you are talking about paying the money you give your bona fide All Stars for guys who might not play on your second line or second pairing.

But here's a little food for thought: when the Sedins signed their contract extensions they were given just a shade over 9.3% of the $56.8m cap ceiling for the next season.

That same 9.3% is now $6.5m, so you could easily hand out that kind of money (especially for star players like Parise or Suter - who you hugely underrate with your points-centric argument - when they are entering the prime of their careers) to players who you expect to form the core of this team going forward.

Furthermore Mike Gillis has shown that he is willing to be flexible in salary structure if it means bringing in a piece of the puzzle that helps this team - certainly Mats Sundin wasn't offered a deal indicating that he was the best and most valued player on the Canucks that year, likewise trading for David Booth was not a shot at Alex Burrows, etc.


With all the trade and free agents talks the last few days (Malone, Parise, and Suter) + the existing American born players (Schneider, Kesler, Booth, Higgins, Ballard, and Alberts , the Canucks could easily be the US National Team next season. :P
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Hockey Widow » Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:42 pm

Speaking of Sundin I laughed when Luongo said he didn't want to be known as one of those selfish guys that refused to waive a NTC but rather he wants to do what is best for the team.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Potatoe1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:44 pm

Zamboni Driver wrote:
I don't want to see Parise or Suter/Weber if it breaks the Canucks salary structure.


If the Cap keeps going up then it is simply a matter of time before the Canucks salary structure is broken. Unless they want to be a less competitive team moving forward.


Our top line Sedins (Hart, Ross, etc) are better than point a game for 3 seasons and make $6.1 mil
Kesler (Selke, ~30 goal average past 3 years) makes $5 mil
Hamhuis - 37 points & + 29 = $4.6 mil
Bieksa - 44 points and +12 = $4.7 mil

So where does that put Suter? (46 points & +15) = somewhere around $5 or at most $5.5


Bieksa was our most recent URFA on that list and Sutter is so much better then Bieksa it isn't even funny. Further to that Bieksa would have cost us quite a bit more this year due to his point total and the inflation we are about to see.

For the record I'm not advocating going after Sutter,,,, oh wait yes I am,,,, either way it's kind of a pipe dream every team will want him and he apparently is looking to stay down south.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Zamboni Driver » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:00 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:
Zamboni Driver wrote:
I don't want to see Parise or Suter/Weber if it breaks the Canucks salary structure.


If the Cap keeps going up then it is simply a matter of time before the Canucks salary structure is broken. Unless they want to be a less competitive team moving forward.


True, he will be looking to upgrade over the next year, and Burrows & Edler will be getting a raise too.
I just don't want to see some stupid money put out, and then everyone else wants a raise.

Like I said, I'm cool with giving Sedin money to Parise (~$6 mil) but I suspect that he will go for close to 8.
Weber already makes $7 mil, so I suspect he'll want clost to 8, and Suter will get over $7 mil.

I just don't think he's worth 7

Potatoe1 wrote:
Zamboni Driver wrote:Our top line Sedins (Hart, Ross, etc) are better than point a game for 3 seasons and make $6.1 mil
Kesler (Selke, ~30 goal average past 3 years) makes $5 mil
Hamhuis - 37 points & + 29 = $4.6 mil
Bieksa - 44 points and +12 = $4.7 mil

So where does that put Suter? (46 points & +15) = somewhere around $5 or at most $5.5


Bieksa was our most recent URFA on that list and Sutter is so much better then Bieksa it isn't even funny. Further to that Bieksa would have cost us quite a bit more this year due to his point total and the inflation we are about to see.

For the record I'm not advocating going after Sutter,,,, oh wait yes I am,,,, either way it's kind of a pipe dream every team will want him and he apparently is looking to stay down south.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Zamboni Driver » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:03 pm

dbr wrote: likewise trading for David Booth was not a shot at Alex Burrows, etc.


I think Burrows will be getting around $4 on his next contract, although he could easily get more on another team
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Potatoe1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:24 pm

Zamboni Driver wrote:I just don't think he's worth 7


The numbers are just arbitrary though aren't they?

I mean everything is relative to the market and the market is base on the players available and the cap space teams are looking to spend.

A few years ago the cap was stagnant and we saw things tighten up, this year we could see a significant increase and the expectation of future increases.

In a world where the cap is increasing by 5 to 10 percent year over year, a high end player like Sutter is worth a ton more then in a world where the cap is steady or decreasing.

I keep going Back to Brian Campbells contract.

He was signed before the recession, and 2 years ago that deal looked like a major albatross.

At this point however, if given the option, I think most of the big spending teams with a decent cap situation would take that deal because a lot of them probably feel they will struggle to find equal value in the free agent market moving forward.

I like Campbell a lot but Sutter is even a notch higher. He's younger, bigger, and over all a better player.

He is just one of those guys who is consistently excellent and at 27 you could sign him long term with the hope that he will be far under market value through the mid part of his deal.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Zamboni Driver » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:36 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:
Zamboni Driver wrote:I just don't think he's worth 7


The numbers are just arbitrary though aren't they?

I mean everything is relative to the market and the market is base on the players available and the cap space teams are looking to spend.


Well alot depends on the new CBA and what the goalie situation is that shakes out.
What happens if the cap goes down or stays the same?

I'm thinking about the Vanek contract, the Sabres were forced to match a big offer, but since then he's been nowhere near a $7 mil player.

IMO, I'd rather that they try to find a good D-man with future potential than to get into a bidding war for a guy that could end up getting crazy money
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby FAN » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:39 pm

Potatoe1 wrote:I keep going Back to Brian Campbells contract.

He was signed before the recession, and 2 years ago that deal looked like a major albatross.

At this point however, if given the option, I think most of the big spending teams with a decent cap situation would take that deal because a lot of them probably feel they will struggle to find equal value in the free agent market moving forward.

Disagree. Brian Campbell's deal was looking like a major albatross 2 years ago because he didn't live up to expectations and it was believed that he was untradeable. If not for teams needing to reach the cap floor Campbell probably did have a deal tha twas untradeable. He was not the #1 puckrushing Dman that the Hawks signed him to be. You seriously think that teams are jumping at the chance to sign an injury-prone #3 puckmoving Dman for $7M+

The big spending teams with a decent cap situation are probably teams that are contenders. I don't see them signing the Brian Campbell that we saw 2 years ago for $7M+. Suter is a different story because he's a shutdown Dman first and foremost with the ability to put up points.
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Re: 2012 UFAs

Postby Meds » Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:42 pm

Well today Luongo publicly stated he would waive his NTC. That is a green light on a Luongo, Edler, Raymond package that could net a very nice return. Edler needs to go. He proved this year that he can't bring his compete level every game, and he put it in bold writing at the worst possible time. He's still a solid #3 guy, but doesn't fit the mold of a blueline that is stocked with #2? and #3 guys from top to, well, to 5. Our 6th is a massive question mark at best with Vigneault as coach.

Raymond is as good as gone, and really he is nothing more than bargaining rights, so he won't bring any kind of return on his own, but might sweeten a larger deal just enough to get it done.

Edler, as I said, is not going to turn into the player we all hoped he would.....at least not here. He would probably do well in an American market where there is less pressure. Putting him together with Lou and Raymond would make for a MASSIVE trade.

As for salary structure.....

The Sedins took discounts to stay in Vancouver. So did Burrows. Apparently Kesler even took a bit less than what he would have gotten elsewhere. When you shop for UFA's you will always pay more than when you are re-signing players that are already on the roster and wanting to stay. Whatever Parise and Suter get, their respective cap hits won't be more than $6.5M.

Arbitration awarded Weber $7.5M, Suter isn't as good as Weber, he's close, but he's no Shea Weber. If he gets $10M it will be on a backloaded contract similar to what Gillis gave Luongo and the cap hit will be less than $7M. His numbers really aren't much better than Ehrhoff's were in his last season in Vancouver, and Ehrhoff's cap hit? $5M. Suter is on par with Keith and Seabrook IMO, and who knows exactly how he will turn out in a system other than the one Trotz has put together.

Parise isn't even a PPG player. I think the entire league learned a big lesson about overpaying for forwards when Gomez, Gionta, and Drury all signed massive contracts. Everyone was shocked when they disappeared after getting the big money, but really none of them were evey 70 point players. In fact Drury averaged 51 points per season over his career, Gionta 42 points, and Gomez 57 points. They were awarded massive contracts because they played pivitol 2nd line roles and hit the UFA market at the "right" time. Big surprise, they all under acheived and are/were major busts for the buck. Parise will get "Sedin money". It might be a front loaded deal, but he's no Stamkos, Crosby, or Ovechkin.

If the Canucks want to remain a competitive team, and by competitive I mean a legitimate contender, then they are going to have shell out some fairly significant coin over the next couple of years. Offering some big money to guys like Parise and Suter on deals that allow for a manageable cap hit is something they will have to look long and hard at.
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