Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

[Meds]

The Oiler's are doomed because there are 29 other teams in the NHL that are based in cities far* more attractive to play and live in.

*Winnipeg excepted from "far"

[Fred]

The Oiler's are doomed because there are 29 other teams in the NHL that are based in cities far* more attractive to play and live in.

*Winnipeg excepted from "far"

Isn't that the truth...despite the noble intention by the owner and the best of management it all may come down to....."who the Hell wants to live there "


ps I hope Evander Kane sees it that way in Winnipeg and we can spring him free come home Evander come home

[damonberryman]

The Oiler's are doomed because there are 29 other teams in the NHL that are based in cities far* more attractive to play and live in.

*Winnipeg excepted from "far"

As far as attractive goes it depends on what a family is looking for. I know it is fashionable to bash Edmonton but they have low crime rate, decent schools, one of the best health systems in the world, no provincial tax and are not more than two hours from the Coast. On top of that they know hockey and on the whole do not seem to be the same bitter bunch as Flame fans. FInally, it is in Canada and unless you have lived down here for an extended time you likely are not aware of how nuts the US really is. Nice people but the patriot thing and racist thing is sheer insanity to say nothing of zenophobia. Do you have any idea how often I get asked what coast Vancouver is on? IS it close to Montreal? Do we all speak French? It is all meant well but holy cow.... If you prefer your children to grow up in the States the odds are they will drink the kool aid. Down here Harper would be considered a socialist. Nice folks but no idea the rest of the planet is real and that they count.

[Larry Goodenough]

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=4359

Another post from the same blogger - outlining how Edmonton management stated in 2006 that the new CBA with salary cap would no longer hold the Oilers back. They've been the worst team in the league over the last 6 years, since they got their new CBA.

[Larry Goodenough]

And here is the blogger's take after the Andy Sutton signing for $1.75 m. He presented a graft comparing the salaries of simular d-men to Sutton.

"So the average, excluding the guys who retired and got zero, is $1.033MM. Sutton’s guaranteed $500K more, with an additional $250K in bonuses. The median’s $825K. The average age of these guys is 30.4; Sutton’s 6.5 years older. The median age is 30. Of the six guys older than 30, Sutton’s $750K over the next highest cap hit. So, uh, why are the Oilers going to carry a $1.75MM cap hit for Sutton? I can’t imagine a sensible answer to this question.

It’s as if there’s not a soul in the Oilers’ front office who thinks about these things in terms of leverage. Andy Sutton is a 6/7 defenceman on the second worst team in the NHL. He was ditched by his last team, for whom he couldn’t crack 15 minutes a night, in exchange for a bad contract because they didn’t want him around any more. His agent has to know what the market usually looks like for guys like him – $1MM is a great payday. We KNOW that the Oilers are aware of CapGeek; do they not have a guy who tries to figure out what guys like this get paid? It’s baffling.

Stuff like this, like all of the other bad contracts, speaks to the judgment of the front office. It speaks to their ability to assess their position and negotiate. It does not say good things about it. It’s another piece of evidence that they have no idea what they’re doing when it comes to getting players at market price. In the bigger picture, it looks to me like the Oilers are intending to go with an awfully similar defence next year – Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, Ryan Whitney, Corey Potter and Sutton are now signed, with Petry, Peckham and Barker being RFAs. Lowetide’s convinced that this means that there’s a trade coming; outside of Hemsky, I’m not sure what the Oilers have to trade that will bring back anything of value. I assume that the 2012 first round pick, RNH, Hall and, unfortunately, Eberle, are untouchables. That doesn’t leave a lot that’s going to bring you back something for the defence."

[Meds]

The Oiler's are doomed because there are 29 other teams in the NHL that are based in cities far* more attractive to play and live in.

*Winnipeg excepted from "far"

As far as attractive goes it depends on what a family is looking for. I know it is fashionable to bash Edmonton but they have low crime rate, decent schools, one of the best health systems in the world, no provincial tax and are not more than two hours from the Coast.

Yeah, that's fine. But I don't think that decent schoold and health care systems rank overly high on the list of going concerns for multi-millionaire superstars who can afford to send their kids to the best private schools and not bat an eye if their kid needs to spend a month in a Mayo Clinic. As for being a couple hours from the coast, well that's if you want to fly to Vancouver to enjoy it. On a daily basis, you are still stuck in the middle of the bald-ass prairie in uncomfortable dry heat, or bitter cold. You get a nice sunrise and sunset.....if you aren't living in the burbs where you miss the best part of said events because you can't see the horizon thanks to the urban sprawl.

On top of that they know hockey and on the whole do not seem to be the same bitter bunch as Flame fans.

One of the worst teams in the league since the lockout (even during their miracle Cup run they still sucked, Roloson just got shit-hot and the puck bounced their way). They gave Horcoff $7M in 2009-10, and took on Smyth's contract of $6.2M this year just to bring the guy home. Granted they didn't sign the contract and it is in its last year, but they did give up assets to get him back. Tom Gilbert is their highest paid defensemen at $4M per year.....Gilbert is worth almost as much as Hamhuis and Bieksa? They have a little over $6M in available cap space yet have been unable to attract any talent in that price range, sure, sure, they are in rebuild mode, but you would think they could have gotten someone. Oh wait, no, they couldn't, but that's because the know their hockey. Right?

FInally, it is in Canada and unless you have lived down here for an extended time you likely are not aware of how nuts the US really is. Nice people but the patriot thing and racist thing is sheer insanity to say nothing of zenophobia. Do you have any idea how often I get asked what coast Vancouver is on? IS it close to Montreal? Do we all speak French? It is all meant well but holy cow.... If you prefer your children to grow up in the States the odds are they will drink the kool aid. Down here Harper would be considered a socialist. Nice folks but no idea the rest of the planet is real and that they count.

It's in Canada, I'll give you that, in which case there are 6 other cities with NHL teams that any player (outside of a few of those who were born in Edmonton) would rather play in.

I will be shocked if Eberle, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins, are all still playing in Edmonton after they hit RFA, certainly not when they have all run through the UFA market. Chances are good that they will all finish their rookie contracts and then sign the minimum length of contract required to get them to their UFA year. After that happens, the Oiler's would be smart to simply accept the fact that they aren't going to be attracting and keeping top talent and trade them in the last year or two of their contracts for established rentals and take a run at a Cup before starting all over again. The Oiler's are likely to be in a perpetual state of rebuild for years to come.

[Larry Goodenough]

Ryan O'Marra was just traded from Edmonton fior nothing, he was one of the players they got in return for Ryan Smyth, along with Robert Nilsson.

Remember when Edmonton was all jacked up about their "kid line" of Nilsson/Cogliano/Gagner. They were on the right track with that youth.

And now that Hemsky is most likely being shipped out of town for more "prospects", the blogger revisits what Kevin Lowe said about O'Marra and Robert Nilsson at the time of the trade.

On the occasion of the trade of Ryan O’Marra to Anaheim, I feel I would be remiss if I didn’t re-visit what Kevin Lowe had to say upon acquiring him.

[O'Marra and Robert Nilsson] are both great prospects. Actually, I’ll forget that – we won’t call them prospects anymore we’ll call them players because people get fearful of prospects.

Well, nobody’s going to call O’Marra a prospect now, I can tell you that much.

[Larry Goodenough]

I'll end with this quote about why on earth Tambellini would not understand he did not have to give belanger a 3rd year on his contract.... it speaks to exactly what the problem is in Edmonton, anybody can quit and collect number one draft choices, it takes good mangement to hold together a rebuild....

"The knowledge matters because it lets you say to an agent “I don’t see a lot of better options out there for your guy. X jobs are available with Y guys and none of those teams give third years to guys who are 34. If I’m wrong, tell me.” Knowledge and understanding the strengths/weaknesses of the other guy’s position is power in a negotiation. For example, the fact that Eric Belangers don’t get third years when they’re 34 is INFORMATION THAT YOU CAN USE TO GET BETTER DEALS. This thinking just seems foreign in Edmonton.

Truthfully, the Belanger contract doesn’t matter that much. The success or failure of the rebuild won’t turn on it. What’s troubling is what it says about the underlying abilities of the Oilers’ front office, their processes. It’s another piece of evidence that they stink when it comes to negotiating and that they routinely get slapped around by agents who just seem to be better at this than they are. At some point, the rebuilding moves from “suck and get good players in the draft” to signing free agents and re-signing people who you’ve developed. If you’re a lousy negotiator with bad processes, the sort of guy who believes an elderly man when he tells you that he wants a third year because he’s excited about being part of what you’ve built, it’s that much harder and less likely that you’ll be able to accomplish it.

I’m reasonably confident that Tambellini is coming back – I think Terry Jones had a Kevin Lowe level source – and I think it’s a really bad thing for the long term success of Rebuild II. It has damned little to do with the standings though and everything to do with what we can infer about Tambellini’s skill set. Whether you like his hockey work or not (30th, 30th, 28th), I’m not sure how you can defend him as a negotiator of contract. The losing will, hopefully pass, but he’s not a guy I want to have any power to make decisions in the future.

Oh well. I’m sure we’ll get someone new for Rebuild III."

[ESQ]

After reading Larry's posts, I found this article interesting:
http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2012 ... ton-oiler/
In a nutshell, Lowe was to slow to the punch to make an offer to Jagr before he had agreed to go to the KHL. I'm not sure of the timeline, whether the KHL offer came before the NHL's free agency period or what, but Jagr on the Oilers probabl makes them a playoff team.

And I do remember the previous "kid" lines of the Oilers, which is why I'm skeptical about the current trio. Great skill, and putting up a ton of numbers but only on the PP, and all are suffering repeated injuries due to not being physically ready for the NHL.

The problem for the Oilers is that they're going to have to pay a premium to keep their kids under contract, and they're all coming up for new contracts in a 2 year span. Those kids will make more than Daniel, Henrik, and Kesler on their next deals, and that's before they even get to UFA. If they only have $6 million in cap space for a lottery-pick team, what are they going to do when the kids need to get paid? Either let one of them walk, or continue to have a weak supporting cast.

[Potatoe1]

As far as attractive goes it depends on what a family is looking for. I know it is fashionable to bash Edmonton but they have low crime rate, decent schools, one of the best health systems in the world, no provincial tax and are not more than two hours from the Coast.

Are you kidding?

Edmonton fucking sucks.

It's an ugly crappy city and in the winter it's so cold you can hardly go outside.

As for Schools and medical, rich NHL player have access to far better private schools and health care down in the states.

Oh and then there is the little thing about being able to breath when you walk out of your door.

[damonberryman]

Are you kidding?

Edmonton fucking sucks.

It's an ugly crappy city and in the winter it's so cold you can hardly go outside.

As for Schools and medical, rich NHL player have access to far better private schools and health care down in the states.

Oh and then there is the little thing about being able to breath when you walk out of your door.[/quote]

I spent a lot of time when younger working the Canadian Bush. I grew up on the Coast but most Canadians live where the air is cold during the winter. I have been in Montreal at minus 40 with a strong wind and Ottawa is even colder. Winnipeg has Portage and Main where the Mounties used to wear and may still wear as far as I know, Buffalo skin overcoats. Hockey is played on ice. Most of the rest of Canada knows how to live with it whereas in my home town they freak out with two inches. Just out of curiosity, which one sounds Canadian to you?

[wienerdog]

I spent a lot of time when younger working the Canadian Bush. I grew up on the Coast but most Canadians live where the air is cold during the winter. I have been in Montreal at minus 40 with a strong wind and Ottawa is even colder. Winnipeg has Portage and Main where the Mounties used to wear and may still wear as far as I know, Buffalo skin overcoats. Hockey is played on ice. Most of the rest of Canada knows how to live with it whereas in my home town they freak out with two inches. Just out of curiosity, which one sounds Canadian to you?

I personally don't hate Edmonton, but it's got some "interesting" weather, to be sure. I'll never forget the time I was on the road with a major concert tour one year, and it had a stop in EDM on Aug 23rd. It was raining HARD, and by 7pm it was 4C and nearly snowing. On August 23rd. That's horrible.

As far as the discussion is concerned, if a player is old enough to be signing a deal as a free agent, he's frequently already married, maybe w kids.

Players most often meet their wives in the cities that they play their formative (ie. RFA) years in. Unless a guy is married to his high school sweetheart, or played in one of the few-ish cities in the NHL which has extremely cold winters, his wife has a significant probablity of being from somewhere that doesn't. Have deep-freeze winters. And she probably doesn't have a soft-spot for wearing a Canada Goose parka.

As it should be, wives wear at least one leg of the pants when it comes to choosing where players sign a deal.

Given a choice between EDM and somewhere else that's not as bitterly cold or quite as "self-imposed-exile" feeling as EDM, the ladies are going to be pushing the other program HARD.

"Honey, I can sign a new deal in Florida or Edmonton. Where should we go?"

Similarly, other markets that are just less appealing as cities have the same problem:

"Hey babe, I got an offer from the New York Islanders and the Columbus Blue Jackets - which sounds more appealing for you?"

Edmonton falls on the bad side of both scenarios above.

Add to this that many players don't want to play in Canada period (higher taxes), and the Oilers are definitely fighting an uphill battle.

[tantalum]

Methinks that blogger will have some more ammo after the Hemsky 2yr/$5mil per year contract extension. He has 90 points since the start of 09/10 season (i.e. 2.75 seasons)

[Zamboni Driver]

I just think the Cpas have failed to make the most of what they have, they have a franchise type player but failed to make it into a team or take them any where.

I'm with Fred here, drafting Alex Ovechkin does not make McPhee a good GM.

No what would really Make McPhee a great GM is signing a franchise player to a $6 mil contract instead of $9 mil

Compare what the Caps top two are doing vs the Canucks top 2 this year, and maybe that's why the Caps are where they are in the standings...

[Island Nucklehead]

I spent a lot of time when younger working the Canadian Bush. I grew up on the Coast but most Canadians live where the air is cold during the winter. I have been in Montreal at minus 40 with a strong wind and Ottawa is even colder. Winnipeg has Portage and Main where the Mounties used to wear and may still wear as far as I know, Buffalo skin overcoats. Hockey is played on ice. Most of the rest of Canada knows how to live with it whereas in my home town they freak out with two inches. Just out of curiosity, which one sounds Canadian to you?

We're spoiled on the West Coast, for sure... but Edmonton is still an ugly city.

Being a member of the military, I've spent time in Edmonton and outside Brandon Manitoba. Both Edmonton and Winnipeg suck ass, if you're an NHL player. You're not in Vancouver (great climate, organization, beautiful city), you're not in Calgary (decent city), Montreal or Toronto (history, franchises with $$). Ottawa is far and away a nicer city than either Murderpeg or Edmonton.

Both those cities won't be on 98% of NHL players wish-list. In fact, I can guarantee that on most players' NTC "no-go" list, you will probably find both the Jets and the Oilers.