Why the Oilers "rebuild" is truly doomed

[Fred]

Pot the difference for some of those teams is many players getting older not better. I don't dispute that those teams will be there and I'm hoping the 'Nucks are in that mix to but Edmonton will be included IMO, not to say lets hand them the cup but give them the respect that they will be amongst that grouping

To compare Brule to ANY of the Edmonton young players is nuts. I like Brule but he was always a work ethic over comes skill type player and when your're 5'10" that doesn't work in the NHL IMO. RNH entire game is a hockey sense and vision...his chance of success is likely way better than Brule ever was. I always felt bad for Brule....McLean killed his own guy and Klesla he's OK but not in the same class as the Edmonton prospects. Seems to me there is a why waste money now attitude in Edmonton when the big play is 5 years away. They're some thing like Quebec was a year or so before they moved to Denver

Tell you what....hands up those that wouldn't want to see those Edmonton youngster in a Vcr uniform

[Larry Goodenough]

Pot the difference for some of those teams is many players getting older not better. I don't dispute that those teams will be there and I'm hoping the 'Nucks are in that mix to but Edmonton will be included IMO, not to say lets hand them the cup but give them the respect that they will be amongst that grouping

To compare Brule to ANY of the Edmonton young players is nuts. I like Brule but he was always a work ethic over comes skill type player and when your're 5'10" that doesn't work in the NHL IMO. RNH entire game is a hockey sense and vision...his chance of success is likely way better than Brule ever was. I always felt bad for Brule....McLean killed his own guy and Klesla he's OK but not in the same class as the Edmonton prospects. Seems to me there is a why waste money now attitude in Edmonton when the big play is 5 years away. They're some thing like Quebec was a year or so before they moved to Denver

Tell you what....hands up those that wouldn't want to see those Edmonton youngster in a Vcr uniform

I was not comparing Brule, I was comparing the hype.

Those Oilers players would be developed properly and surrounded by support players in Vancouver. Again, it's not a knock against their talent, it's a knock against how the talent will be developed and supported.

[Potatoe1]

Pot the difference for some of those teams is many players getting older not better. I don't dispute that those teams will be there and I'm hoping the 'Nucks are in that mix to but Edmonton will be included IMO, not to say lets hand them the cup but give them the respect that they will be amongst that grouping

Like I said every player on the list is 26 or below, in 5 years the oldest will be 31 but most will be in their late 20's which is the prime years of their careers.

Do you think Hall (25) will be better then Towes (28) in 5 years? Or will Eberle (27) be better then Jame Neal (29)?

Again, it's obvious the Oilers big 3 will be excellent in 5 years, but again, 3 high end players will not win not win with out a high end supporting cast.

You could take the 3 best forwards in the league today and surround them with a below average supporting cast and they would likely struggle to make the playoffs.



The oiler have MILES to go before anyone should worry about their being a cup threat.

[Fred]

You're right about getting the surrounding players alongside them. Pitts took maybe 2 seasons to do that and Edmonton I would think would take longer. But teams with a list of talent like Edmonton and don't over look Florida IMO ( they've stacked away a lot of # 1 picks ) have to go out their way to fail. Look no further that the Vcr team, the Sedins have been around for a long time but success has alluded the team. I'm sure there will be a lot of excuses but facts is facts man

[Larry Goodenough]

You're right about getting the surrounding players alongside them. Pitts took maybe 2 seasons to do that and Edmonton I would think would take longer. But teams with a list of talent like Edmonton and don't over look Florida IMO ( they've stacked away a lot of # 1 picks ) have to go out their way to fail. Look no further that the Vcr team, the Sedins have been around for a long time but success has alluded the team. I'm sure there will be a lot of excuses but facts is facts man

Success alluded them until Gillis arrived and began to manage the team properly.

[westvandal]

To add to Potatoe1 here...What separates the Oilers, say from the Blackhawks of a few years ago is the bad supporting cast currently on the Oilers. In a cap system, your entry level contracts have a window of being cap affordable to ice a great supporting cast. With Chicago, Toews and Kane had plenty of complimentary talent around them and won a cup in that window. Look at what they had to practically give away to keep their core...almost all of the supporting cast had to go. The Oilers are getting closer and closer to the expiry of some of those entry level contracts, and won't be able to keep the talent around. This so called SICK FUTURE Tambellini(Lowe) keeps promising is being wasted currently imo.

[westvandal]

You're right about getting the surrounding players alongside them. Pitts took maybe 2 seasons to do that and Edmonton I would think would take longer. But teams with a list of talent like Edmonton and don't over look Florida IMO ( they've stacked away a lot of # 1 picks ) have to go out their way to fail. Look no further that the Vcr team, the Sedins have been around for a long time but success has alluded the team. I'm sure there will be a lot of excuses but facts is facts man

I'll believe Florida when I see the results. This was the same team that had Luongo, Boumeester, Horton etc. and were going to be the next best thing 5 years ago. I realize the difference is Tallon obviously knows how to build a winner...but we'll see.

[Potatoe1]

To add to Potatoe1 here...What separates the Oilers, say from the Blackhawks of a few years ago is the bad supporting cast currently on the Oilers. In a cap system, your entry level contracts have a window of being cap affordable to ice a great supporting cast. With Chicago, Toews and Kane had plenty of complimentary talent around them and won a cup in that window. Look at what they had to practically give away to keep their core...almost all of the supporting cast had to go. The Oilers are getting closer and closer to the expiry of some of those entry level contracts, and won't be able to keep the talent around. This so called SICK FUTURE Tambellini(Lowe) keeps promising is being wasted currently imo.

Totally agree...

Hawks won with Kane and Towes in the last year of their ELC, and Keith and Seibrook on their second deals which were also cheap. Those 4 players went from around 6 mill in total cap hit their cup year to 20+ this season.

The Oilers will need to pay Hall and Eberle after next season so they will get almost no benefit from their entry level deals.

[Fred]

Success alluded them until Gillis arrived and began to manage the team properly.

I'd agree with that but Hell the Sedins were not at the elite level 5 years ago, MG arrived at a very very good time in the teams development. As much as I hate to say it BB was brilliant in that '99 draft.....MG has created a team but it's mostly been chicken scratches. He has never brought in an elite piece and said that's what we need. DN brought in Luongo for a steal. DN/Delorme drafted Schneider/Kesler. The 2 big moves were Ballard and Hamhuis...Hodgson is looking more and more like a good player...elite i don't think so, to many missing elements. I'm not complaining about MG but the pieces needed to make this a good team were here before him

[dbr]

To add to Potatoe1 here...What separates the Oilers, say from the Blackhawks of a few years ago is the bad supporting cast currently on the Oilers. In a cap system, your entry level contracts have a window of being cap affordable to ice a great supporting cast. With Chicago, Toews and Kane had plenty of complimentary talent around them and won a cup in that window. Look at what they had to practically give away to keep their core...almost all of the supporting cast had to go. The Oilers are getting closer and closer to the expiry of some of those entry level contracts, and won't be able to keep the talent around. This so called SICK FUTURE Tambellini(Lowe) keeps promising is being wasted currently imo.

Totally agree...

Hawks won with Kane and Towes in the last year of their ELC, and Keith and Seibrook on their second deals which were also cheap. Those 4 players went from around 6 mill in total cap hit their cup year to 20+ this season.

The Oilers will need to pay Hall and Eberle after next season so they will get almost no benefit from their entry level deals.

Tyler Dellow has another pretty good post about the Oilers' situation with Jordan Eberle..

As you’re probably aware, Eberle has had an absolutely amazing season. He’s leading the NHL in 5v5 pts/60, at 3.69. He’s sixth in the league in ES points and seventh overall. It is an astonishingly good season. When you dig into it though, it looks like he’s benefited an awful lot from randomness.

...

This is actually a sort of delicious test of whether or not management has learned anything from the past six years. It’s as if the hockey gods, having looked on Edmonton with distaste for so long are reconsidering whether we have management worthy of their blessing. Although it’s a bit hidden, Eberle presents them with basically the same situation that Shawn Horcoff did in the summer of 2008. Horcoff was signed coming off a season in which he had 50 points in 53 games, allegedly because he visited a Mexican stick factory, with a year left on his pact. He’d also had big years in on-ice shooting percentage (11.4%) and IPP (82%), although nowhere near what Eberle’s doing. The Oilers wanted to find a guy who’d commit to Edmonton, given the Smyth/Pronger fiascoes.

Has management learned anything from the Horcoff contract? Have the fans? There’s no hubris like thinking that this time is different and the hockey gods have always tended to punish hubris severely.

Link

Pretty good blogger, even if it he is an Oilers fan.

[coco_canuck]

Here's a little breakdown of what the Oilers have beyond this year:

Hall Nugent-H. Eberle
Paajarvi Gagner Omark
Horcoff Jones
Eager Belanger

Gilbert Whitney
Smid Peckham

Dubnyk
(Khabby if not traded)

The players that will fight for those open spots:

Hartikainen
Pitlick
Lander
Hamilton

On defense:

Klefbom
Musil

The prospects and young players like Paajarvi and Omark aren't locks to be stars next year, although I really like Paajarvi, and the rest of those players are varying degrees away from being ready.

If the Oilers hit on 70% of those young players, they will be a solid team in 4-5 years, but only if they get or develop 2 stud d-men and Tamby makes the right moves to fill out the roster.

There's a lot of work ahead for the Oilers, who have potential, but they need to fix this losing environment before it becomes poisonous and stunts development of key players.

As it's been pointed out, unlike the Hawks, the Oilers need a lot of help on defence, in goal and up front. Maybe Gagner is the answer on the 2nd line, but if he's not, Lander is a long way from being their 2nd line pivot.

[Fred]

I watched Musil with the Giants and he's going to be a steady D for a long time. His father was a good D and it's brushed off to him.

To many good pieces there to not be impressed.

[westvandal]

That's the thing with the Oilers, how can you not be impressed? the top 3 alone *all* have a chance to be on Team Canada 2014.
As a previous poster said, the losing culture is something they have to remedy as quick as THIS season or things will turn on themselves regarding potential over there.

[dbr]

If the Oilers had any hope of landing a Chara (Bruins '11), Campbell (Hawks '10), Gonchar (Pens '09) calibre player in free agency I'd be confident that they could fill out their roster in a few years with the kind of supporting cast needed to compete for the cup - but the fact is that they can't do that, hell they can't even keep players they've had in the system since day one without big money contracts.

You just don't see a team that isn't incredibly deep winning Stanley Cups these days (the last one had two Hall of Famers on defense and one of the best playoff goalies in recent memory), and without the ability to do at least some of that in free agency the Oilers are going to have to build entirely through the draft and the trade market - it's a tall order for any team, and the guys running the show in Edmonton haven't exactly inspired confidence.

[ESQ]

They're some thing like Quebec was a year or so before they moved to Denver

Now that is an interesting comparison. Quebec moves to Colorado with Sakic, Forsberg, Foote, Owen Nolan, plus all the parts that became Roy.

My question is, are any of the Oiler 3 comparable to Sakic or Forsberg? I don't think they do, nor do I think they have the upside to develop into Hall of Famers.
Similarly, do any of the Oiler 3 compare to Toews, Crosby, Getzlaf/Perry? Again, I don't think so.