Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

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mathonwy
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by mathonwy »

So far, I don't believe. Believing is predicated on results and I don't see the results so far. Playing .500 hockey won't get the Canucks anywhere.

Last year was magical. Nobody could stop our power play. Our penalty kill was ironclad. Our 3rd period was unstoppable, I believed and I told anyone that would listen that the Nucks win the silver.

This year, nope. Win one lost one win one lose one lose one. Losing against the Coilers and the Wild? Bush league. In the most recent history of the NHL, which team has been consistently been the best? Detroit Red Wings. They are the platinum standard for excellence. In their prime, the Red Wings completely dominated the league. Z and D absolutely terrorized opposing teams. And most importantly, they won cups.

I don't see the Nucks terrorizing anyone right now. I see other teams putting the body on our defense, on our captain, on our goalie, on everyone on our team. Absolutely no respect for the Nucks despite what we accomplished last year.

Do I see the Canucks getting their shit together this year? Honest answer... I dunno. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I won't bet on this version of the Canucks because I think there's a extremely high probability I'll lose my money.

I hope they figure their shit out but hope is not faith. Hope is rolling the dice and hoping that you don't crap out.
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Southern_Canuck
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Southern_Canuck »

dhabums wrote:Wow, am I surprised you didn't mention 91 pts made it the 2 seasons previous to 09/10. That would really undercut the point.
8th place in the West is currently trending to 95 points:

Sports Club Stats

Current projected playoff teams:

103 Chicago
99 Minnesota
99 San Jose
97 Nashville
97 St Louis
95 Dallas
95 Phoenix
95 Los Angeles

Vancouver is trending to 91, Edmonton 92, and Detroit to 93...

But it is early.

S_C
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dhabums
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by dhabums »

Southern_Canuck wrote:
dhabums wrote:Wow, am I surprised you didn't mention 91 pts made it the 2 seasons previous to 09/10. That would really undercut the point.
8th place in the West is currently trending to 95 points:

Sports Club Stats

Current projected playoff teams:

103 Chicago
99 Minnesota
99 San Jose
97 Nashville
97 St Louis
95 Dallas
95 Phoenix
95 Los Angeles

Vancouver is trending to 91, Edmonton 92, and Detroit to 93...

But it is early.

S_C

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dbr
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by dbr »

39-24 could very easily be 34-19-10, which is barely over .500 in terms of winning percentage but of course picking up loser points makes all the difference.

And that's really it so far, the Canucks are nearly halfway to their regulation loss total last year already - if they can pick up their play they should start bagging points even in games they don't win.. a timely save here or a key defensive play there and they'd be doing that already and we wouldn't be discussing this.

(Nevermind the already mentioned fact that we're in the worst division in the league.. nine very winnable games left against the Oilers and Flames, and we should probably take six or seven of the ten left against the Wild and Avs.)

As players start getting healthy things should improve, and if the rest of the team can pull their heads out of their asses and start playing as a five man unit then we should be able to pile up some wins and pull closer to the top of the conference.
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Meds
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Meds »

Just look at the Bruins.

Boston has gone on a 7 game winning streak and climbed from being 1 point up on the Islanders to 1 point behind 8th place Ottawa.....and they hold 3 games in hand on the Sens.

The only thing that really worries me about this team is its politically correct, diplomatic approach to the games. Hockey is not politically correct, it's a sport where "nice guys finish last".....for the most part. Gillis and Vigneault need to recognize this and act accordingly.

I am happy with the way Burrows and Kesler approach the game now, the roles that they are in require a higher standard of play and conduct, one where they can't be hurting the team by sitting for 2 for unsportsmanlike penalties. So as a team's players evolve, so must the roster. Guys like Malhotra, Weiss, and Volpatti, have to be replaced. Kesler has become arguably the best two-way center in the league, he is better at both ends of the ice than Malhotra, has been for a couple of years now. Lapierre has proven he is a better option than Malhotra everywhere except the faceoff circle. Malhotra is not a 4th line center, he doesn't have the attitude or aggression, he lacks the tenacity and the mean streak that makes a 4th line player valuable. Weiss and Volpatti lack the skill set you want in any NHL player, though Volpatti at least is willing to take a run at an opponent from time-to-time.

So yes, it's early, and with some good play, this team can easily right the ship in time to challenge for a top 3 spot, but I don't think they are mean enough to succeed in the playoffs because opponents just aren't scared to take a run at anyone wearing an orca, and our top players end up having to play bruised and abused.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Larry Goodenough »

http://vansunsportsblogs.com/2011/11/18 ... -continue/

Here's an interesting blog from the Sun, comparing advanced 5 on 5 stats from the first 19 games last year vs this year. Also, current PDO numbers which highlight slumps or hot streaks over a short period. It might explain some of this season's struggles.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Rumsfeld »

I'm not sure what the hate-on for Weise is all about. He brings about what I'd expect from a decent fourth-line winger. He has good wheels, can pass the puck better than most scrubs, throws hits and is tenacious on the forecheck. You don't see him getting burned one-on-one very often. I think being constantly on the ice with Volpatti has made him look worse than he is. Seabiscuit would be fine with a decent winger to help him dig pucks out.

Malhotra and Volpatti are the reason we can't get the puck out of our end.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by The Brown Wizard »

Rumsfeld wrote:I'm not sure what the hate-on for Weise is all about. He brings about what I'd expect from a decent fourth-line winger. He has good wheels, can pass the puck better than most scrubs, throws hits and is tenacious on the forecheck. You don't see him getting burned one-on-one very often. I think being constantly on the ice with Volpatti has made him look worse than he is. Seabiscuit would be fine with a decent winger to help him dig pucks out.

Malhotra and Volpatti are the reason we can't get the puck out of our end.
He doesn't take stupid penalties either. Thats huge
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Potatoe1 »

Larry Goodenough wrote:http://vansunsportsblogs.com/2011/11/18 ... -continue/

Here's an interesting blog from the Sun, comparing advanced 5 on 5 stats from the first 19 games last year vs this year. Also, current PDO numbers which highlight slumps or hot streaks over a short period. It might explain some of this season's struggles.
I mentioned this the other day as well, The canucks PDO is terrible (worst in the league) which essentially means their gotenders save percentage has been significantly worse then the save percentage of the goalies they have played against.

Some of that is their own doing but a lot of it is also bad luck and poor play from Schneider and Luong.

Frankly there is a mountain of statistical evidence pointing to the canucks really not deserving their crappy record and frankly I would be shocked if their next 20 games aren't substantially better then their last 20.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by coco_canuck »

Potatoe1 wrote: Frankly there is a mountain of statistical evidence pointing to the canucks really not deserving their crappy record and frankly I would be shocked if their next 20 games aren't substantially better then their last 20.
They've been on the wrong side of the breaks, but they also have work for the brakes.

A .500 record at this time of the year isn't the worst thing in the world, especially when you're only 6 points out of 1st in the division, and 8 points behind 1st in the West.

They're only a hot streak away from closing gap.

So far the Canucks biggest issues have to do with players in key roles recovering from injuries and others still looking for consistency.

The Canucks knew full well that they would have a tough start with the injuries and a shortened training camp. Management gambled on resting their players early in order to keep them healthy down the stretch. I think it's still too early to say they made a bad move.

At some point this team will start to get healthy and will eventually be awarded for their effort. There's some good signs the past 5-7 games that they're close to finding "Canucks Hockey," and as often as it is, you typically have to earn back the good brakes after being guilty of playing poorly for a fair amount of time.

As relatively bad as the Canucks have been, has there been any point in time where you didn't think this team could legitimately beat their opponent?

The games have still been there for the taking.

Having said all of that, they need to string some wins together fairly soon before they fall too far back from the top spot in the Conference.
Last edited by coco_canuck on Fri Nov 18, 2011 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by dhabums »

Uncle dans leg wrote:
Rumsfeld wrote:I'm not sure what the hate-on for Weise is all about. He brings about what I'd expect from a decent fourth-line winger. He has good wheels, can pass the puck better than most scrubs, throws hits and is tenacious on the forecheck. You don't see him getting burned one-on-one very often. I think being constantly on the ice with Volpatti has made him look worse than he is. Seabiscuit would be fine with a decent winger to help him dig pucks out.

Malhotra and Volpatti are the reason we can't get the puck out of our end.
He doesn't take stupid penalties either. Thats huge
It's pretty amazing the amount of dislike for a rookie 4th liner who has been as decent as Weise. He has ONE minor penalty this year and it was a mans penalty, cross checking. With a bit of luck he has 3-4 goals this year. But alas, some fans are programmed to hate the 4th line.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Rumsfeld »

coco_canuck wrote:As relatively bad as the Canucks have been, has there been any point in time where you didn't think this team could legitimately beat their opponent?

The games have still been there for the taking.
As much as I agree with the gist of your post, I think 80% of the teams in the league could parrot the quoted section above. The parity in the league these days means most teams are pretty evenly matched and the games reflect that.

The good teams find ways to win those close ones. So far this season we are not a very good team.
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coco_canuck
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by coco_canuck »

Rumsfeld wrote: The good teams find ways to win those close ones. So far this season we are not a very good team.
Fair enough, but 80% of those teams also don't have the same type of roster the Canucks have.

I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that Kesler, Luongo, Hamhuis, Bieksa, and Booth will play better. They may not play at their absolute peak, but they're much better players than they've shown so far. I don't foresee all of them having a dreadful season.

Better play for three quarters of those players, and the Canucks will win more often than not.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by Potatoe1 »

coco_canuck wrote:
Rumsfeld wrote: The good teams find ways to win those close ones. So far this season we are not a very good team.
Fair enough, but 80% of those teams also don't have the same type of roster the Canucks have.

I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that Kesler, Luongo, Hamhuis, Bieksa, and Booth will play better. They may not play at their absolute peak, but they're much better players than they've shown so far. I don't foresee all of them having a dreadful season.

Better play for three quarters of those players, and the Canucks will win more often than not.

Of course they will play better, it's utterly ridiculous to think otherwise.

Luongo had a horrible star just like he always does but those who think he has "lost it" at an age where most goalies actually improve, are out of their minds.

Kesler is getting 4 to 5 great scoring chances a game and missing all of them. It is absolutely a classic case of a guy squeezing his stick and it was totally predictable.

Booth just got here and needs to lean the system and get comfortable with line mates. Gillis said on the radio 2-weeks ago that it would take quite a while for Booth to fit in and I tend to agree.

Hamhuis couldn't work out most of the summer due to injury and Bieksa has already picked things up after a crap start.

This team will be fine, people really need to stop the bed wetting.

Actually don't stop, because I will end up looking a lot smarter then I actually am when the team is up near the top of the conference 20 games from now.
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Re: Hmmm... it's early, but 39-24...?

Post by coco_canuck »

Potatoe1 wrote: Of course they will play better, it's utterly ridiculous to think otherwise.

Luongo had a horrible star just like he always does but those who think he has "lost it" at an age where most goalies actually improve, are out of their minds.

Kesler is getting 4 to 5 great scoring chances a game and missing all of them. It is absolutely a classic case of a guy squeezing his stick and it was totally predictable.

Booth just got here and needs to lean the system and get comfortable with line mates. Gillis said on the radio 2-weeks ago that it would take quite a while for Booth to fit in and I tend to agree.

Hamhuis couldn't work out most of the summer due to injury and Bieksa has already picked things up after a crap start.

This team will be fine, people really need to stop the bed wetting.

Actually don't stop, because I will end up looking a lot smarter then I actually am when the team is up near the top of the conference 20 games from now.
Well done :lol:

I don't have any concerns over any of those players not improving. Hamhuis is already looking better, and it won't be long before he plays stout defense. When he's at his best he's a difference maker. I've never seen a Canucks defenseman play as well defensively as Hamhuis did in the playoff run.

I'm also looking forward to seeing Raymond return. It will likely take him until the all-star break for him to find some good consistency, but he's going to be a nice addition to the top 9.
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